Area Forecast Discussion
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006
FXUS64 KLUB 312341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  40  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26

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