Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

091
FXUS64 KLUB 112152 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
307 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PRETTY MUCH ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL...LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN DISSIPATES BY LATE
AFTERNOON ONLY TO DO THE SAME THING AGAIN THE NEXT DAY.  TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WILL BE NO EXCEPTION.  LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE IS LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN THIS TIME THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY SUNSET
ACROSS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT THEN START TO FILTER
BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING WITH A RISK OF A RAPID DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES.  MULESHOE CRATERED TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THEN STARTED A SLOW CLIMB AS LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PUSHED BACK OVER THIS WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE.  HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT FASTER AND AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY SATURDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH A LLJ OF 15-25 KTS AND DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALL AID IN THE
FORMATION OF FOG. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT A MORE W-SW WIND
IMPINGING ON THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS LEADING TO
FILTERING OF DRYER AIR INTO THIS AREA WHICH COULD POSSIBLY MAKE FOG
FORMATION A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...UA RIDGING WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD WHILE SFC LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY AFTN. AS
SUCH...BREEZY S-SW WIND AND TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORM /60S AND
70S/ WILL OCCUR. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE WILL BE NEARING THE PANHANDLE REGION.
MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND THE LLJ RAMPING UP TO 25-35 KTS MAY ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.  NOT TO SURE HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL
BE GIVEN DEEPENING SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. CONCURRENTLY... INCREASING UL SUPPORT WITH PWATS
RANGING FROM 0.50-1.10 INCHES /HIGHEST PWATS OFF THE CAPROCK/ WILL
LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. AS THE UA
DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...ITS PACIFIC
FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN
DRYING CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. WITH THE
DISTURBANCE/S ANTICIPATED TRACK BEING CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUN ITERATIONS...THE LIKELIHOOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/WINTRY
PRECIP TO AFFECT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE IS LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...NRLY WINDS AND NEARBY SFC RIDGE WILL LEAD TO COOL
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT INTO THE 50S. ALTHOUGH WIND
DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE S-SE BY MID-WEEK...THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORM. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOWEVER THAT WITH THE RETURN OF THE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT BY MID-WEEK...PWATS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP UP TO NEAR 1.00
INCH ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF BAJA  TO ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK ATTM. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTN. IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY
WHETHER OR NOT THIS TRACK WILL REMAIN THE SAME IN THE COMING DAYS...
SO THE ANALYSIS OF FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  69  40  68  40 /   0   0   0   0  30
TULIA         45  68  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  10  30
PLAINVIEW     43  67  44  69  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
LEVELLAND     42  68  45  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  40
LUBBOCK       46  68  47  70  47 /   0   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   46  69  45  70  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
BROWNFIELD    46  68  46  70  46 /   0   0   0  10  40
CHILDRESS     43  67  50  71  51 /  10   0  10  10  30
SPUR          52  67  50  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     55  69  53  70  50 /  10  10   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.