Area Forecast Discussion
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602
FXUS64 KLUB 160451
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS. A 40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 500-600 FEET AGL
AS MEASURED AT THE REESE CENTER SODAR FROM THE WEST TEXAS MESONET
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN
15-20 KNOTS BENEATH THIS JET SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT A LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CALL...BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS IS A CLOSE CALL
AGAIN. JET WILL BE OVER KCDS IN THE MORNING AND WILL MIX OUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING THERE BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO THE WEST. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO BACK SOME TOWARD WESTERLY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE
RECENTLY-ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SSW WINDS
STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...IN TURN
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE RECORD COLD OF LAST NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS LOW TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT AND AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS. 12Z MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO SIG
CHANGES ATTM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAIR OF THE UPPER
TROUGHS MAY IMPINGE ON THE NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WOULD
EXPECT THAT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AS
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE CNTL PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WHILE
BRINGING IN A FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BUT SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...TEND TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONT. I HAVE KEPT THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THAT. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY AS RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP LOW AROUND SOUTHERN CA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE...FOR
THE MOST PART...ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES CLOSER.
UNLIKE WHAT THE STORY HAS BEEN LATELY...THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL NOT COMPLETELY PUSH OUT WHAT MOISTURE
THAT IS AVAILABLE AND WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS PUSHED OUT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE BACK IN THANKS TO QUICK RETURN FLOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROF APPROACHES STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP ACTIVITY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WHILE THE ECMWF PROVIDES PRECIP IN ONE SHOT
WITH THE MAIN TROF. AS THE NAM ONLY GOES OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...I HAVE GONE MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS UNTIL THE
FINER DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT AS TIME GETS CLOSER. GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP CHANCES I HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CHANCE.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ALL IS NOT
LOST...AT LEAST IN THE MINDS OF THE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
GREATLY ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW CLOSED AND TO THE NORTH. DESPITE BEING PLACED UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...UNLIKELY GIVEN NO
REAL AVAILABLE LIFT. THE GFS...AS IT HAS TRIED TO DO FOR QUITE SOME
TIME NOW...MOVES A DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE LOW IT PROVIDES CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF IT. WE SHALL
SEE...BUT I AM SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE MODELS TRACK RECORD THAT FAR OUT.
ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  75  38  57  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         38  75  40  58  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     38  75  41  60  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  77  41  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       40  76  44  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  78  42  66  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    41  78  44  67  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  74  49  61  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
SPUR          39  75  47  69  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     40  74  51  68  41 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05

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