833
FXUS64 KLUB 132032
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...
THIS AFTERNOON THE CWA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE OVER
THE 4-CORNERS AND AN OLD CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
AT THE SFC...MOISTURE WAS JUST BEGINNING TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE NRN GULF
COAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NEWD ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM IMPINGES ON THE WEST COAST. MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 40S...AND LOWER 50S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. WIDELY SCT T-STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD SNEAK INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS
BEFORE 0Z. OTHERWISE WE EXPECT BETTER CHANCES TO ARRIVE TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /NAMELY MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 OUT EAST/. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND WEAK BULK
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ON THE WEAK SIDE OVERALL...WITH AN
ISOLD THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE INVOLVED EXPANDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTWARD FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND NUDGING HIGH
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT.
LAST WEEK`S UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NWRN OLD MEXICO IS
ON TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN
WITH THIS WAVE WILL STILL BE IN ITS INFANCY ON TUESDAY...BUT
BY TUE EVENING A STOUT LLJ AND MOIST AXIS SHOULD REMEDY THE
SITUATION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SEE ISOLATED TSTRMS. BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW`S
TRACK WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR OUR SERN COUNTIES.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...A MINOR TROUGH FARTHER NORTH WILL HAVE
PHASED WITH THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE A MOSTLY NEBULOUS
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MIDDAY BEFORE BACKDOORING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WED NIGHT AND WASHING OUT.
A DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME MORE DEFINED IN OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SERVING TO KEEP OUR SWRN
COUNTIES DRY. IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES LAST THURSDAY
WHEN SCATTERED TSTRMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE MOISTURE DEFICITS WERE LOWER. NOT CONVINCED WE`LL SEE
THE LARGE COVERAGE OF QPF PROGGED BY THE FREQUENTLY NOISY/SENSITIVE
NAM...ALTHOUGH INCORPORATING A BROADER PERSPECTIVE FROM THE SREF
MEAN DOES WARRANT SOME PRECIP MENTION AS FAR WEST AS I-27 WITH
IMPROVED CHANCES FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENSUES THURSDAY BEFORE BACKING SWLY
BY FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT TROUGH...THE CORE
OF WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO KANSAS BY SAT EVENING LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WX THREAT FOR THAT REGION OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. IN OUR HUMBLE ABODE OF THE PLAINS...A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPILLING EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE TROUGH LOOKS
TO INHIBIT ANY REASONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. KEPT POPS SILENT FOR
NOW ON FRI AND SAT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF PROGS A REGIONALLY ACTIVE
DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS OF TEXAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING
SATURDAY`S TROUGH AND THIS COULD PROVE INTERESTING FOR PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDED IT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AND POOLS
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 85 55 89 55 / 0 10 10 10 10
TULIA 55 86 58 89 58 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 54 86 59 91 60 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 55 84 61 93 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 57 85 61 93 62 / 0 10 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 55 84 60 92 61 / 0 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 55 85 60 94 62 / 0 10 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 60 88 63 93 64 / 0 10 20 20 20
SPUR 57 87 62 93 63 / 0 10 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 60 88 66 94 66 / 0 10 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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