359
FXUS64 KLUB 120934
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
434 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANCE IN LOW LEVEL PATTERN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS A CONTRIBUTOR
TO A VERY SUBTLE DECREASE IN PROGGED 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
SUGGESTING HIGHS TODAY UP TO 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY...AND
MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 0 AND 1 DEGREE...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS
GUIDANCE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT IN LINE WITH WARMER MAVMOS
NUMBERS GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SOUTH WINDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10
MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. POPS NIL WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN CONUS RIDGING WILL TUG OUR SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EAST BEGINNING TOMORROW AND ALLOW A WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE TO
LIFT NORTH FROM OLD MEXICO COMPLETE WITH PRECIP CHANCES. DEEPENING
MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH
PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES OFF THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY.
POTENTIALLY NARROW NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE
COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIP...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
FAVORING THE BEST MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GREATEST. INITIAL DEEPENING
OF MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY FRI MORNING IN OUR SWRN
COUNTIES...BUT THE DEEPEST ASCENT AND BEST POP CHANCES ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANT WARM CORE LOW AS IT SPREADS ATOP THE
REGION. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN MID-
LEVEL WINDS BY SATURDAY SPELLS A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MODEL PWATS SOAR TO 2
INCHES. SHOULD THE WAVE TRACK ANY FARTHER WEST...THEN THIS THREAT
WOULD SHIFT ONTO THE CAPROCK.
BEHIND THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...UPPER RIDGING REBOUNDS WESTWARD
OVER ERN NM AND LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ANEMIC IN INTENSITY. THIS
IS GOOD NEWS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE
CHANCES CAN EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF
SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIDGE. AS WE SUSPECTED...THE ECMWF WAS TOO
STRONG YESTERDAY WITH ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH RACING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. WHERE THE CURRENT ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS IS
THAT IT FAVORS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EFFECTIVELY NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND LOCAL
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO AS IT KEEPS A 500MB HIGH ANCHORED
A BIT CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT ANY DECAY OF THIS HIGH FROM
REPEATED CONVECTIVE EPISODES COULD CERTAINLY OPEN THE DOOR TO A
WETTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAX TEMPS WERE COOLED OFF SEVERAL DEGREES FRI AND SAT IN
ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES THANKS WITH
THE DEEPENING MOISTURE. NO
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 95 66 94 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 20
TULIA 97 68 95 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 95 70 95 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 94 69 94 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 20
LUBBOCK 96 70 95 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENVER CITY 95 68 93 68 83 / 0 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 94 70 94 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 20
CHILDRESS 99 72 100 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
SPUR 95 71 96 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 98 71 98 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/93
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