Area Forecast Discussion
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387
FXUS64 KLUB 241728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THIS CYCLE. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD FORM AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH IF IT DOES FORM ITS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES OF A TERMINAL IMPACT TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...BACKING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN VEERING BACK WESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE THE FOG MENTION AND DECREASE SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE LATE OCTOBER SUN HAS
BEEN ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA AS OF 15Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHERN BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES...THOUGH
EVEN HERE ANY RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS
WILL LEAVE SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANTLY WARM AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THE UPDATED GRID AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATION FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  WHILE THOSE TWO FACTORS ARE IN PLACE...AND INDEED PATCHY FOG
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR AND ON THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS.  IN
PARTICULAR...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...SLOWLY ADVECTING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WHILE THIS ISN`T NECESSARILY A DEATH
SENTENCE FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT EVEN IN SOME OF THESE
DRIER AREAS TEMP/DPT SPREADS ARE SMALL...GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS
WIND PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THIS
TREND...IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO VEER.  A FEW PLACES
MAY EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS TOO MARGINAL TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG
HEADLINES.  WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

BY MID-MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN OFF...REVEALING
BLUE-BIRD SKIES THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 83-88 DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL YET AGAIN...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IT SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP THINGS
WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.  FLOW REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AS TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER...FLOW CURVATURE TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE CYCLONICALLY FOR
MONDAY WITH NEAR ZONAL THROUGH TUE.  A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST
IN INTO THURSDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES.  THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHOULD SAG TO NEAR THE I20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE THOUGH TUESDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT
COOLER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN SET UP A SCENARIO FOR FIRST FREEZE
ON HALLOWEEN.  SPOOKY!  NEVERTHELESS...MODELS VARY A FAIR BIT BEYOND
DAY 4.  ALL IN ALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THINGS JUST DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  84  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  86  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  86  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  85  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  86  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  84  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  85  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  92  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          55  89  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  90  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23

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