Area Forecast Discussion
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915
FXUS64 KLUB 252237
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EDGING
A BIT EAST AS WELL WITH VERY WARM DOWN-SLOPE FLOW FAVORED. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS LATE NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE OUT WITH MORE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER
WEATHER. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS
WILL FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
POINT OF REFERENCE...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ARE:

              TODAY /OCT 25/       TOMORROW /OCT 26/
LUBBOCK:    91 DEGREES /1959/      88 DEGREES /1979/
CHILDRESS:  94 DEGREES /2011/      93 DEGREES /1950/

AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S WERE COMMONPLACE...WITH
EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...INCLUDING CHILDRESS...AT OR AROUND 90
DEGREES.

THIS FALL WARMTH WAS BEING PROVIDED BY A STOUT LATE SEASON UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEST TEXAS...THOUGH ONLY MINOR HEIGHT
FALLS SHOULD BE CANCELED OUT BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY. THUS...EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON IN THE
80S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH A FEW LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. THE
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH AND INCREASING FLOW NORMAL TO THE
MOUNTAINS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH WHICH IN TURN
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. IN ADDITION...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE
HIGH-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE GET CARRIED OVER
TOMORROW...WITH PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS BREAKING UP THE CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES OF LATE.

BEFORE THEN...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD
ANOTHER COOL /BUT ABOVE AVERAGE/ NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER EAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...A LITTLE PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN ON THE CAPROCK...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AT BEST AND WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.

LONG TERM...
MODELS AGAIN SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND RUN-
TO-RUN RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OF THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG
IT...PRIMARILY EASTERN ZONES. PROGGED SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 50S...BUT TIME OF DAY MEANS ANY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
CAPE LESS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO FAIRLY
MODEST...AND THE WEAK AND VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS CONCURRENTLY WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO GENERATE MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT EITHER. OBVIOUSLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO...BUT THERE
ARE STILL TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED TO INSERT MENTION
ATTM.

A SECOND COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NO LIFT WITH
NO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN NWLY FLOW OVERHEAD.

WARM TEMPS MONDAY TO BE REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THEN ONLY TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS. REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT COULD LEAD TO
COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE SEASON LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  86  52  75  38 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         50  87  54  78  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  86  54  80  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     50  86  54  81  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       53  87  56  82  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  87  54  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    49  87  55  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  92  60  86  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  55  86  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  88  57  87  49 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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