Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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290
FXUS64 KLUB 191722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING AT LBB BUT SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z. CURRENT ONE MINUTE CIG SENSOR DATA SHOWS STEADILY
INCREASING CIGS CLOSE TO 3 KFT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS STAYED WEST OF LBB AND CLOSE TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHOWER MAY MAKE IT CLOSE TO LBB. I WILL
KEEP RA/TSRA OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE LOW
CERTAINTY THAT A SHOWER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. TSRA
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE AT LBB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN TO MENTION IN THE
TAF AT THE MOMENT. THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 21Z
TO 03Z. TAFS WILL BE AMENDED AS NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

CDS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
SOMETIME TOMORROW IN THE EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WAS SLOWLY BEING REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WELL AHEAD OF A FILLING UPPER
LOW CROSSING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. PRECIP ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS BEING DRIVING PRIMARILY BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE NOW TO OUR EAST.
WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWS THE MOST DYNAMIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF
HEIGHT FALLS IS STILL WEST OF THIS INITIAL REGION OF LIFT IN FAR
SWRN NM...SO WE STILL EXPECT OUR BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY TO BE
RELEGATED TO THE AFTN AND EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DEEPER
LIFT.

A FEATURE OF INTEREST ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS A
RESPECTABLE 700MB S/W TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY OF THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT S/W TROUGH...AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE PRECIP AT ALL. OPTED TO TIGHTEN
THE POP GRADIENT BECAUSE OF THIS WHILE ALSO RAISING VALUES TO HIGH
CHANCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE FOCUSED LIFT AND DEEPER
SATURATION ARE MOST LIKELY. POPS AFTER 06Z ARE BEING KEPT ON THE
LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING 700-500MB S/W TROUGH...BUT THIS STORY DOES CHANGE BY THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WINDOW AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE 500 J/KG OF AVERAGE MLCAPE
PROGGED THIS AFTN...MODEL WIND PROFILES POINT TO LARGELY BENIGN
CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR.

ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS WAS TO NUDGE VALUES UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
EASTER SUNDAY APPEARS TO START OFF WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY. AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
OPEN WAVE...A WEAK DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND START TO MOVE EAST WITH THE PASSING WAVE. MODELS ARE
GENERATING SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INDICATE ONLY ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THE MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO A PRETTY GOOD CAP EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH
WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS MOSTLY THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME...SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO BIG OF AN
ISSUE RIGHT NOW. TWEAKED POPS UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROF PASSAGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
MAINLY A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT MOIST EVEN WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA OR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HOWEVER
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK
DOWNBURSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON /IF/ ANY PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP.

TUESDAY REMAINS FAIRLY WARM AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A DRYLINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION RANGING FROM NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IN THE GFS TO
ROUGHLY A SILVERTON TO TAHOKA LINE IN THE ECMWF. ALL MODELS BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS EVEN WITH HINTS OF A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. CONTINUED
LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS ALSO HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SWING OUT IN THE SAME
REGION. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE GFS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OUT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY SIMILARITY IS THAT BOTH MODELS PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY AIRMASS THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR IF WE
REMAIN IN A DRY WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SO FEW CHANGES MADE FOR
THE LAST THREE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  50  75  49  77 /  50  30  20  10  10
TULIA         73  54  77  50  78 /  30  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     74  54  77  52  80 /  40  40  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     71  54  79  55  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  56  80  55  81 /  40  40  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   71  55  79  55  79 /  50  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    72  56  80  57  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  59  81  58  82 /  10  20  40  30  10
SPUR          76  57  79  60  84 /  20  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     79  59  81  60  85 /  10  20  40  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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