Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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934
FXUS64 KLUB 020007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM STORMS
OVER THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/99/55

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