Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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278
FXUS64 KLUB 151128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT CDS HAS BROUGHT DOWN CIGS TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING WHICH WILL BRING CIGS
BACK TO VFR. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AT LBB BY MID
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND BECOME VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS TODAY WITH THE GREATER CHANCE BEING AT LBB. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO THEY HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR THIS AM IS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF TREATS WITH STRATIFORM
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...A GRAVITY WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE VERY EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. THE
DISSIPATING SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ARE LEFT OVER FROM A
SHORTWAVE EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ARE BEING PRODUCED BY MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES EARLIER UNDER THE RADAR...PUN INTENDED. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING INTO A LINE AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE TOO FAR OF AN ADVANCEMENT AS THE AIR TO THE
WEST IS FAIRLY STABLE DUE TO THIS PAST EVENINGS RAIN. THE ONE
THING KEEPING THESE SHOWERS SUSTAINED IS OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT.

TEMPS IN THE MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY COOL COMPARED TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO BOTH THE RAIN AND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE COOLER BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS AS CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP SOLAR INSOLATION TO A MINIMUM TODAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
CO WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING SETTING US UP
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT RAIN. MODELS APPEAR TO HANDLE THIS
DIFFERENTLY WITH HIGHER RES MESOSCALE MODELS KEEPING PRECIP AT BAY
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS DEVELOPING A COMPLEX ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SINCE THIS IS MAINLY A SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
EVENT I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH HIGH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED CAPE...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE FAVORABLE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE ONGOING COME
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CONFINED EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT WHERE THE GREATEST
POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER DEGREE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING...ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST PROMINENT TIME FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH THE LONG MISSING
DYNAMICAL ASPECT. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP IN
PROVIDING STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AS AN UPPER JET STREAK ALSO ATTEMPTS
TO POSSIBLY ALIGN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.
LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL THUS ENSUE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
TO ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR INITIAL UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT TO ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IF STORMS CAN
FIRE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COMPLEX BEFORE LARGER SCALE FORCING
CONGEALS DISCRETE ACTIVITY...ALL SEVERE MODES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL FILTER IN THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT...LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES. SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 80S FOLLOWING POST-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S
THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HOLD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY PUT A DAMPER ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE THE CENTER OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER HIGH DRAWS NEARER BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 600 DECAMETERS WOULD LIKELY SPELL TRIPLE DIGITS
FOR ALL LOCALES...WITH PERHAPS SUNDAY FALLING JUST SHORT DEPENDING
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  85  61  76 /  30  50  50  60  30
TULIA         79  64  84  62  76 /  30  60  60  70  30
PLAINVIEW     80  65  84  63  75 /  20  60  50  60  30
LEVELLAND     85  66  88  66  78 /  30  50  40  50  20
LUBBOCK       83  68  87  66  77 /  20  50  40  60  30
DENVER CITY   87  66  91  67  83 /  30  50  30  40  20
BROWNFIELD    87  66  91  67  81 /  30  50  40  50  20
CHILDRESS     85  66  82  66  79 /  20  70  60  70  50
SPUR          85  66  88  68  79 /  20  50  40  60  30
ASPERMONT     89  68  91  70  84 /  20  50  40  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31/51

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