139
FXUS64 KLUB 122324
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS OR
GREATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KLBB WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF SOME LOW
STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING. WILL EVALUATE FOR 06Z ISSUANCE AS TO
PROBABILITY OF THIS REACHING THE TERMINAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER WITH 594DAM HEIGHT NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE
THE HEAT BUT CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY AS A WEAKNESS MOVES NORTH
OUT OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIOEND WEAK UL LOW...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WORK ITS
WAY INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING
BUT OTHERWISE CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS FORECAST ITERATION. IF
ANYTHING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE GFS HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS
WILL FAVOR SATURDAY FOR HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN
AS WELL. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT AT THE JET LEVEL WITH THIS WAVE
WITH EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. CLOUD LAYER FLOW
WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN ON SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES AND
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN LIFT MOVES OUT OVER THE AREA LATE ON
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS DEPICTS EXPECTED VERY LOW
NCAPE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT ANYWHERE BETWEEN
1.65 AND 1.85 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED. THIS
EQUATES TO ANOMALIES OF AROUND 175 TO 200 PERCENT. FURTHERMORE...BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL DEEPEN TO 3.5KM AND
LOWERING LCLS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LITTLE RAINFALL NEAR
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND SQUASHING NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 95 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
TULIA 66 97 67 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
PLAINVIEW 65 96 68 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
LEVELLAND 65 95 68 84 65 / 0 0 0 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 95 70 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 64 93 68 82 65 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 66 94 68 83 66 / 0 0 0 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 100 72 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 20
SPUR 70 97 72 91 68 / 0 0 0 10 30
ASPERMONT 73 98 74 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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