Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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646
FXUS64 KLUB 162027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
DEFORMATION AXIS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRICT BOUNDARY BETWEEN DECENT SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND LESSER THOUGH NOT ZERO CHANCES NORTH
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION AND WIDTH OF THE AXIS IS NOT VERY CLEAR.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTENSE ENOUGH...ON ORDER OF THIRD TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN 5-10 MINUTES...INTO THE EVENING FOR RISK OF AT LEAST
MINOR STREET FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CLOUD SHIELD AND EXTRA DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP MORE MILD MINIMUMS TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES ALL-IN-ALL.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE THEME IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

ABUNDANT AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE FROM ODILE
STREAMS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SQUARELY ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TRICK WILL BE TIMING THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT A TRIVIAL TASK.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GET TOO CUTE AND CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SITUATED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. MORE FOCUSED AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE CENTER OF ODILE TRACKS PAST...THOUGH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE ITS VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO
OUR NORTH OF THE FA. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE EXPANDED AND INCREASED
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM JUST BELOW A
LIKELY MENTION AT THIS POINT. GIVEN ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AND WE
HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSING OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES...THEN BRING
MODESTLY DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL DRYING REGARDLESS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST ON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO RAISE POPS INTO MENTIONABLE LEVELS BEYOND
SUNDAY JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
MUTED...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  60  78  61 /  20  20  30  30  40
TULIA         63  82  62  81  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     64  77  63  78  63 /  30  30  40  40  40
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  64 /  20  30  30  30  40
DENVER CITY   64  78  63  76  63 /  30  50  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    65  79  64  78  64 /  30  40  40  40  40
CHILDRESS     68  88  67  86  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  66  83  65 /  20  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  86  69  84  68 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23

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