Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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104
FXUS64 KLUB 280502
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF LIGHT/STEADY RAIN APPROACHING CDS APPEARS ON TRACK TO
DECAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP THERE THRU 08Z SHOULD NOT BE ENUF TO
PUSH CONDS BELOW VFR. NEAR LBB...SPOTTY SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LOOK
TO DRIFT NEARBY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

BETTER CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF TSRA /SOME STRONG OR SEVERE/ LOOKS
TO EMERGE THU AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER
TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. COULD SEE TSRA DEVELOP AS SOON AS THE
LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR NOW REMAINS IN
THE AFTN UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WILL KEEP A PROB30 AS
TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER POPS IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES WHILE RAISING VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IR SATELLITE
DATA IN THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A RESPECTABLE MATURATION OF
CONVECTION IN FLOYD COUNTY COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL-SCALE MCV
OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF FLOYDADA AT 930 PM PER 88D DATA. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN PAST DAYS...THESE SMALL FEATURES HAVE TENDED TO
FOCUS THE LION/S SHARE OF NOCTURNAL PRECIP AND THIS CERTAINLY
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE TONIGHT FOR OUR NERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL AND MORE DIFFUSE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
AREA WIDE CONSIDERING THE NUMBER OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME. NO OTHER UPDATES NECESSARY
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  20  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  90  67 /  20  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  20  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  20  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  30  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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