Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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131
FXUS64 KLUB 111723
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.AVIATION...
AT LBB...CIGS AND VIS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT OVER THE TERMINAL. THESE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 19Z. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AT CDS...MVFR CIGS REMAIN AROUND AND OVER THE
TERMINAL BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 19Z. WINDS AT BOTH
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE EAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME FOG MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING IN RESPONSE TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN AN
ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT POSSIBLY LOWERING VIS TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG A
LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF BLEDSOE TO LUBBOCK...ARE CREATING
HEAVY DOWN POURS WHICH ARE CAUSING LOCALIZED URBAN FLOOD ISSUES.
THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THEY
PUSH EASTWARD LEAVING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE FA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS APPROACHING LUBBOCK FROM THE WEST IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VALID TIME. HOWEVER CONCENTRATION OF
TS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION INTO THAT TAF. STILL...
CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO OF THAT POSSIBLE OCCURENCE THERE BEFORE 15Z.
FOR KCDS...LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND NE SHOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THERE THIS
MORNING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
DEFINITELY FAVORED OVER THUNDER AT THAT TIME AND HAVE INSERTED
MENTION IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. UAA
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE MODELS PROG A FAIRLY MODEST 50 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EJECTING FROM THIS LOW TODAY MOVING FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS AND ERN NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH LIFT FROM THIS JET STREAK
INTERACTING WITH DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD FROM THE
ERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD NEWD/EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOCUSING ON THE OVERNIGHT
06Z TO 12Z PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DEVELOP IN
NARROW ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOL...MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM ERN NM TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND AS OF 08Z RADAR IMAGERY
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED RETURNS. MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEST LIFT INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A QUIET
PERIOD OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MECHANISM
DISCUSSED ABOVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH PEAK HEATING. THAT HEATING WILL BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS WITH FCST HIGHS FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...
WELCOME RAINFALL APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
INTERCEPT A DEEPENING PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ATOP WEST TX.
SOME PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THANKS TO
A ZONAL CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 305K AIDED BY THE UL
JET MAX DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES BY MID-MORNING COULD CERTAINLY
GARNER SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WITH ENHANCED PRECIP RATES...BUT
BY THE AFTN THIS FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH FOLLOWED BY
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A PROGRESSIVE DECAY OF PRECIP FROM N-S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN THE ONLY SATURATED LAYERS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST 5K FEET OR SO...A TRADEMARK COMMONLY ASSOCIATED WITH
DRIZZLE. THE NAM MAINTAINS AN AXIS OF ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL ASCENT
UNDER THE DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK FROM MEXICO...BUT THIS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF BANDS BY FRI NIGHT ARE BEING DISMISSED IN
FAVOR OF WPC/S DRIER RECOMMENDATION. ANOTHER CHALLENGE ON FRI IS
HIGH TEMPS AS THE TIMING OF COLD FROPA WILL GUARANTEE TEMPS
END UP FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAW MODELS HAVE WIDESPREAD
LOWER 50S BEFORE SUNSET AND THIS APPEARS LEGITIMATE UPON LOOKING
AT THE CHILLY AIR MASS PRESENTLY OCCUPYING THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF COOL SURFACE RIDGING IS NOW PROGGED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN HIGH TEMPS PER MEX GUIDANCE. ANY
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NRN-ERN ZONES
NEAREST THE DRIEST AIR IN THE SURFACE HIGH. BY LATE SAT...MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE BIG BEND. ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE...NOT WILLING TO
INTRODUCE PRECIP MENTION JUST YET AS THE LL PRESSURE RIDGE MAY
PROVE MUCH DEEPER AND END UP THWARTING PRECIP ALTOGETHER.

STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF INSISTS
ON A SHARPER TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOCALLY BY MON/TUE. THE GFS IS MUTED ENTIRELY WITH THESE
FEATURES BUT STILL DELIVERS AN UNSETTLED NWLY FLOW REGIME UNDER
CONTINUED LL MOISTENING. EVEN THOUGH MOS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BULLISH WITH POPS FROM MON-WED...WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION SHY
OF 20 PERCENT FOR NOW UNTIL THIS PICTURE HOPEFULLY TRENDS CLEARER
IN LATER RUNS. HI TEMPS SHOULD UNDERGO A VERY SLOW RECOVERY
FOLLOWING THE UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEKEND AND THREAT OF
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS FOR DAYS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  60  43  67  54 /  70  70  10  10  10
TULIA         59  60  44  67  54 /  60  80  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     60  62  45  63  55 /  60  80  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     61  64  45  62  56 /  70  80  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  63  48  62  56 /  70  80  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   62  65  45  62  55 /  70  80  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  65  46  62  57 /  70  80  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  64  50  70  59 /  40  70  10  10  10
SPUR          62  65  49  67  59 /  60  80  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     63  68  50  68  61 /  60  70  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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