Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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390
FXUS64 KLUB 262133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A WARM DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
70S AT 2 PM PER THE WEST TEXAS MESONET...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A 80 DEGREE READING IN THAT AREA WHEN THE
FINAL TEMPS COME IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME NW
TO SE-ORIENTED BANDS OF CIRRUS STRETCHING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO
SOUTH TEXAS...AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED NEWD IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT N-NEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION BUT OTHERWISE THE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND MILD. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S OUT IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...NAMELY MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE...TO MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW THIS EVENING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE SW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF US...UPPER 60S IN OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GETS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS AS
COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...WE`LL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY WITH
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS...OFF TO OUR WEST ENERGY SPLITTING
OFF NORTHERN JET MEANDERS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH ORGANIZATION EAST OF THE
SACREMENTOS AND ULTIMATE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH OLD MEXICO...BEFORE DOING SO THOUGH...PACIFIC MOISTURE DOES
SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF IN THE NORTHERN
JET MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK AND HAVE PUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS OF THIS TIME COLD AIR DOES
NOT SEEM DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT WOULD BE IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
WITH ANYWHERE TO 0.5" TO AN 1.00" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS US DRYING OUT PAST THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS REMNANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TO BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  68  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         34  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  71  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          39  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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