Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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684
FXUS64 KLUB 131708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WAS FINALLY BREAKING UP NEAR KCDS AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT TO THE KLBB TERMINAL BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...KLBB WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER MVFR CIGS. LOW CIGS MAY
RETURN TONIGHT AT KLBB BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH DISAGREEMENT
WITH THIS REGARD DEPICTING ANYWHERE BETWEEN VFR TO LIFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE NEW 12Z GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOW
WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FEW-OVC CLOUD DECKS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL MAKE A RETURN
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
STRUGGLING TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL OPT TO NOT ADD A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAF
ATTM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF -RA/-DZ OCCURRING AT KLBB TODAY.
OTHERWISE...NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  78  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  30  30
TULIA         53  78  59  80  59 /  10  10  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     54  77  60  80  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     55  76  60  80  62 /  10  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       56  77  62  79  63 /  10  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   57  75  61  80  62 /  10  10  10  20  30
BROWNFIELD    57  77  62  80  63 /  10  10  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     57  81  64  83  64 /  10  10  10  30  30
SPUR          58  79  63  83  66 /  10  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     59  80  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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