Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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302
FXUS64 KLUB 161142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. SW TO WEST WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NE
THIS EVENING AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 12 KTS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A MODEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COLD OR DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...EFFECT ON THE
FCST AREA WILL BE MINIMAL. MAIN ISSUE THEN IS HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AN
INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SUGGEST HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SW AND SC PANHANDLE WHERE THE FRONT MAY INTRUDE EARLY
THIS AFTN. THIS COULD PUT RECORDS AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS IN
JEOPARDY. MAJORITY OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TRENDS TWO OR THREE
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE RECORD NUMBERS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES WORTH NOTING IN THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE INCLUDED
NUDGING TEMPS UP A BIT NEXT WEEK AND ADDING PRECIP MENTION BY WED
AND THU.

FLAT RIDGING TO START ON FRI MORNING WILL AMPLIFY A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAKENING IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM BAJA CA. THIS WAVE IS
LIKELY TO MINOR OUT COMPLETELY BY SAT MORNING AS IT REACHES NEW
MEXICO AND HAS THE MAJORITY OF ITS MOISTURE WRUNG OUT ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING IN THE FORM OF VIRGA...BUT CAN/T ARGUE AGAINST
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAKING IT INTO OUR NWRN COUNTIES
AT SOME POINT ON SAT. THIS MID-LEVEL POCKET OF MOISTURE THEN DRIES
OUT BY SUN.

MUCH BETTER MOISTENING SETS UP NEXT WEEK AS A FETCH OF GULF
MOISTURE IS CARRIED NWWD UP THE RIO GRANDE AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINED
TROUGH/LOW STILL PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO.
LIFT HOWEVER IS MUTED UNTIL MID/LATE WEEK ONCE A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH PHASES WITH THE WAVE TO OUR SW AND MOBILIZES IT SLOWLY
E-NE. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
AS PROGGED BY NEARLY ALL MODELS. WE FEEL SUCH A SETUP IS FITTING
OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUCH A DISTANT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSE TO CLIMO THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH NO THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         87  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     88  45  75  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     89  47  76  47  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       89  48  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  79  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    90  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     92  49  79  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          91  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     90  49  80  51  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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