201
FXUS64 KLUB 142040
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...
BROAD WEAK TROUGHINESS WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.
AIRMASS MIXING FULLY NOW AND DEVELOPING HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD
THAT WILL ONLY LIFT HIGHER LATER IN THE DAY. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND
CAPE FOR A LOW CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDER PERSISTING A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING ALTHOUGH THE DRIER LOWER ATMOSPHERE OBVIOUSLY WILL MAKE RAIN
COVERAGE VERY LIMITED WHILE ALSO INCREASING CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS COVERED BY THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE A SURGE NORTHWEST OF THE
DRY-LINE ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SHOULD SET THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY CORRESPONDINGLY WESTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CLOSE TO CAP-ROCK ESCARPMENT IF NOT
EVEN ONTO IT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW
FORECAST REMAINS MUCH MORE BACKED PER THE WRF/NAM SOLUTION LATE
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE LESS BACKED GFS. WE CHOSE TO BLEND WITH SLIGHT
LEAN TOWARDS THE LATEST WRF/NAM. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE
BROAD TROUGHINESS REGION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERHAPS WITH A
MINOR PERTURBATION OR TWO DROPPING OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW MENTION OF HIGH-BASED THUNDER OVER MOST AREAS ON
THE CAP-ROCK WITH A BETTER CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CAP-ROCK.
SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY ALSO SHOULD BE HIGHER NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DRY-LINE. MILD TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW WINDOWS OF LOW THUNDER CHANCES
PUNCTUATE THE EXTENDED.
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR SOME
TIME WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE OPEN OF THE EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...THOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF QUESTION WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL
BE LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z NAM BEING THE
FARTHEST WEST NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR AT PEAK
HEATING/MIXING...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ONLY HOLDS THE MOISTURE IN THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE WEAK DISTURBANCE CRESTING THE
RIDGE AND PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE OFTEN EASTWARD
BIAS OF THE GFS WITH THE DRYLINE...HAVE LEANED STRONGLY TOWARD THE
NAM IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM...BUT SO
WILL SFC TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S
ON THE CAPROCK...AND THIS COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT DOES APPEAR THE CAP
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG EAST OF THE DRYLINE SO IT MAY BE A FAIRLY
NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE CONVECTION COULD BE MAINTAINED...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ULTIMATE DRYLINE POSITION...HAVE CHOSEN TO
BLANKET THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH A LOW THUNDER MENTION.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN BECOME ROOTED.
THE DRYLINE WILL THEN PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS
THURSDAY/S DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH
MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE WEST. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 30C ALL POINT TO A HOT DAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S COMMON /PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TRIPLE
DIGITS/.
MOISTURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
DRAWS CLOSER AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SHUNT THE DRYLINE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER EVEN THOUGH MINOR COOLING MAY BE
REALIZED AS THICKNESSES DROP SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THE FIRE DANGER
ELEVATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE...THOUGH
THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER PUSH WITH THIS FRONT MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...A RELATIVE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 90 55 94 58 / 10 20 20 10 10
TULIA 58 92 58 92 60 / 10 20 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 59 91 60 96 62 / 10 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 60 92 60 97 62 / 10 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 61 93 63 98 64 / 20 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 61 92 62 97 62 / 20 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 92 62 98 62 / 20 20 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 64 91 64 92 64 / 20 30 20 20 20
SPUR 61 93 61 95 63 / 20 20 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 64 92 64 96 66 / 20 30 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
