Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

944
FXUS64 KLUB 282323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE KLBB TERMINAL
AND IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN NEAR KCDS. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY PERIODICALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT KCDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV SHOWS A NICE COMMA SHAPED LOW CENTERED OVER THE CO/NM STATE LINE
MOVING EASTWARD AT A STEADY PACE. WHILE PRECIP WAS SLOW GO THIS AM
WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR CONTINUOUS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THINGS ARE STARTING TO RAMP UP ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WILL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SVR IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL. BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REACH UP
TO 35KTS...WHICH HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR STORMS...AND A JET MAX
JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL
MAKE FOR HAPPY STORMS. ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS PWATS
WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES WILL MAKE FOR PRETTY
HEAVY RAINFALLS. STORM MOTIONS...AS IS OBSERVED CURRENTLY...WILL
FAVOR TRAINING STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING WHILE DECLINING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
BE GREATEST IN THAT AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MANY AREAS WITH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SEEING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WHILE OUR EASTERN
ZONES WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 70. MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS THE
FRONT BEING WEAK WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM GOING LOWER. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
AND THE MID 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...AND WILL BE EXITING THE SAID REGION TOMORROW NIGHT
THUS HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AND SO WILL THE SPATIAL EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION /BEST CHANCES OFF THE CAPROCK/. HOWEVER A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH
PLAINS TOMORROW WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.60 INCHES/...A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD AID IN SPOTTY LINGERING
PRECIP SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN
A BIT SUNDAY AND CAUSE SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS. LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BROAD UA LOW IMPINGING ON THE PACIFIC
NW...WILL SHIFT EAST TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HENCE PROMOTING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FA. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPING ALONG IT...AND POSSIBLY NEAR THE NRN ZONES.
THEREAFTER...AN UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND KEEPING STORMS
AT BAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

AS THE UA TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASES...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES DECLINE JUST A BIT BY MID-WEEK...LEADING TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  85  61  90  62 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         61  88  64  92  65 /  30  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     61  88  65  91  65 /  30  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  88  64  91  64 /  30  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  68  93  69 /  40  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  66  92  65 /  30  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  66  93  66 /  40  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     69  93  72  95  72 /  50  30  30  10  10
SPUR          66  92  67  94  67 /  50  30  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  95  72  97  71 /  50  40  30  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.