Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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354
FXUS64 KLUB 191731
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AROUND 00Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 20/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...
TTU MESONET INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP
THIS MORNING BEHIND EARLIER PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN TOUCHING 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 50...25 TO 35G40 AT MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK AS OF 1545Z. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE CURRENTLY PEAKING WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THINK WINDS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WIND
ADVISORY NOT NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99/13

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