Area Forecast Discussion
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747
FXUS64 KLUB 131722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS WERE OCCURRING AT
BOTH TAF SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BECOME
RESTRICTED AS OF YET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CRITERIA
DROPS TO VFR LATER THIS AFTN DUE TO BLDU. MAY SEE A LULL IN WIND
SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT KLBB...HOWEVER
A RATHER BREEZY COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NEARING KCDS INITIALLY...TO ACROSS KLBB LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK
INTO THE 20-27 KT RANGE BY TONIGHT /HIGHEST SPEEDS PROJECTED TO BE
AT KLBB/. SHOULD SEE VIS GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM VFR TO MVFR AT
KLBB THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT DUE TO THICKENING DUST...BUT COULD GO
LOWER THAN THAT IF A HABOOB FORMS. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...THOUGH
STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY /20-23 KTS/. FURTHERMORE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER
OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...LIGHT PRECIP/WINTRY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH -SHRA/-DZ COULD AFFECT KCDS OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
WIND/DUST AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND WIND/DUST...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LEAD
TROUGH HAS DRAWN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE EVEN SKIRTED
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...DRY LOW-LEVELS HAVE KEEP PRECIPITATION TO
A MINIMUM...WITH NO WTM SITES REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO OCCASIONALLY TAP A
50+ KNOT LLJ IN PLACE...RESULTING IN PERIODIC STRONG SURFACE WIND
GUSTS /40-50 MPH/ AND BLOWING DUST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE LEAD
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND CLOUD COVER QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. A SFC
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
/SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP
THE SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. SOME DEEP LAYER COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
UPPER TROUGH WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-70S NEAR FRIONA TO NEAR 90 AT ASPERMONT.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
EDGE INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS EVENING. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
8-10+ MB RAISE THE CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO LOFT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF
DUST...PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE AIDED BY ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF ANOTHER
HABOOB AFFECTING THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LARGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA /ON THE CAPROCK/ AND EASTERN NM...AND WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS. THAT SAID...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA /OFF THE CAPROCK/ AS A 40-45 KNOT LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THERE. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD BET A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON
THE PARTICULARS. MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR AND A STRATUS DECK WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT...WITH LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXPECT FOR A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST. IT DOES APPEAR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK COULD EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR COCHRAN...HOCKLEY.... LAMB...HALE AND FLOYD
COUNTIES. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO
REACH THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE...SO WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY
FREEZE RELATED HEADLINES.

ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE LOCALLY...BUT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN MIX WITH OR CHANCE OVER TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE COOLS...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12
UTC...BUT THE LATEST TTU-WRF DOES INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 15 UTC...SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. WE/LL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE
COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND OF COURSE A VERY DRY
AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE PROVIDE NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-FRZG TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY
DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF THE FAR
TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN/T REALLY BEGUN YET.
AFTER THE CHILLY START...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND
THEN 70S WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE THE FIRE DANGER INCREASE
AS LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH AS WELL. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY SLIM AS MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN BEFOREHAND. BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS THU AND FRI...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND WRN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MAKE FOR
AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS IT WILL TAKE A LOWER
LATITUDE TRACK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A BETTER COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE/VE KEPT OUR
POPS JUST SHY OF MENTION IN THE DAY 7/DAY 8 PERIOD...HOPING THAT
FUTURE RUNS WILL GIVE US THE CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTIONABLE
POPS.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION.
THE WORST COMBINATION OF WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH AT 20
FEET/ AND HUMIDITIES /BOTTOMING OUT AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY TO 8 PM. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE AT MOST SPOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES. THIS SHARP WIND SHIFT COULD
ADVERSELY AFFECT ANY ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS.

BREEZY SW WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WITH A PERSISTING DROUGHT AND DRY AIRMASS...FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AGAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE TOO COOL TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...BUT MAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  45  25  66  39 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  46  25  66  41 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  47  26  65  40 /  20  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     34  49  27  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  49  28  66  41 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  52  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    36  51  28  67  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  30  67  42 /  10  20   0   0   0
SPUR          38  52  31  66  42 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     41  55  33  67  43 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>042.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ027>044.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

&&

$$

29

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