Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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041
FXUS64 KLUB 240819
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  21  52  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  25  54  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  26  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  27  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  27  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  27  54  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  31  58  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07

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