674
FXUS64 KLUB 181744
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT THE TERMINALS THIS TAF
CYCLE...WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL HAVE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT PROSPECTS OF A DIRECT IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF
HEAT BURSTS...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WAS NOW
EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH THE NEXT UA TROUGH OF CONSEQUENCE
APPROACHING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIFT WITH THE WESTERN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH VEERING FLOW WAS ALSO
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES WERE ALREADY BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS...THE FIRE
DANGER WILL BE HIGH. IT STILL APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING/MIXING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR MODES LIKELY.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND RATHER WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE A LOW TORNADO CHANCE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND BACK AND LCLS GRADUALLY LOWER. BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA IS IF AND FOR HOW LONG CONVECTION CAN STAY IN OUR
AREA. OF THE GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS STORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOW THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST
OF THE FA...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER QUITE
NARROW. THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
PEAKS...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE COOLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 87 54 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 57 92 56 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 57 94 58 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 59 94 57 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 96 60 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 60 95 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 63 95 62 92 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
SPUR 59 98 64 94 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 69 99 65 97 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99/99
184
FXUS64 KLUB 181631 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF
HEAT BURSTS...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WAS NOW
EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH THE NEXT UA TROUGH OF CONSEQUENCE
APPROACHING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIFT WITH THE WESTERN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH VEERING FLOW WAS ALSO
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES WERE ALREADY BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS...THE FIRE
DANGER WILL BE HIGH. IT STILL APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING/MIXING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR MODES LIKELY.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND RATHER WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE A LOW TORNADO CHANCE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND BACK AND LCLS GRADUALLY LOWER. BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA IS IF AND FOR HOW LONG CONVECTION CAN STAY IN OUR
AREA. OF THE GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS STORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOW THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST
OF THE FA...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER QUITE
NARROW. THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
PEAKS...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE COOLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FOG HAS
REMAINED NORTHEAST OF KCDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM WITHIN 5 NM OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE THE 12 KNOT THRESHOLD TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99
629
FXUS64 KLUB 181148
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FOG HAS
REMAINED NORTHEAST OF KCDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM WITHIN 5 NM OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE THE 12 KNOT THRESHOLD TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31
362
FXUS64 KLUB 181017
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31/26
193
FXUS64 KLUB 180459
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE DECK EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CREATE BREEZY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT
KLBB. FOG AND LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO IN DOUBT AT KCDS BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS STILL EXIST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORMING JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AT KLBB. THE LOW LEVEL
JET MAY ALSO KEEP LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS FROM AFFECTING THE KCDS
TERMINAL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT IS ON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BACKED FLOW...IMPROVED MOISTURE AND THE
LATE CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
THIS POINT. AS OF THIS WRITING...RADAR WAS SHOWING THE DRYLINE
NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSITIONED FROM NEAR WAYSIDE TO MCADOO TO
DICKENS...THEN BENDING MORE EASTWARD. UP TO THIS POINT ONLY A VERY
LIMITED CUMULUS FIELD WAS SEEN LOCALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE /IN FLOYD
COUNTY/...WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR
KBKD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KBBD. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LATTER AREA FOR ROBUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM
LOCALLY. OBVIOUSLY...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN GET GOING
HERE...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH PROSPECTS FOR CI ARE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO INTERACT
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTER
BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM FAR NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE CAPROCK LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL NWP MODELS DO INDICATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT WITH THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE DRY IN THE DEEP
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM ANY
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DRAW CLOSER ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT
AND PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
MEAN INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO
SHARPEN SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY BE A BIT DELAYED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...BUT ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE WITH BREEZY LATE
NIGHT WINDS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...WHILE LOWS OUT EAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE TOASTY...RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES OFF THE CAPROCK.
LONG TERM...
EARLY TO MIDWEEK UPPER PATTERN TO SEE A TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND
CNTL PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE MS VALLEY WITH FLAT TO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THAT PATTERN
THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING MONDAY.
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME TUESDAY AS THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EWD WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. AFTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO IN THE
END THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWING IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THE FCST AREA TO BE JUST ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. FURTHERMORE THE NEAR-MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER WWD AND
POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO STAY FARTHER WEST EACH DAY...POSSIBLY
AS FAR BACK AS THE NM STATE LINE. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH STILL
RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL AS A WHOLE PATTERN
SUGGESTS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BACK TO THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER...
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S PUSHING RH VALUES
DOWN TOWARD 5 PERCENT. ONLY QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESIDE AROUND THE LOW END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW
AFTN/EVNG AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE A FINAL CALL ON WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 93 55 89 53 / 20 0 0 0 0
TULIA 61 95 56 91 52 / 20 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 61 96 56 93 53 / 20 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 62 97 58 93 56 / 20 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 65 98 58 95 57 / 20 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 95 59 93 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 98 59 95 59 / 20 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 100 61 98 61 / 10 20 10 0 10
SPUR 66 102 58 99 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 101 69 101 64 / 10 20 20 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
05/99
057
FXUS64 KLUB 180006
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORMING JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AT KLBB. THE LOW LEVEL
JET MAY ALSO KEEP LOWERED VISBYS AND CIGS FROM AFFECTING THE KCDS
TERMINAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT IS ON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BACKED FLOW...IMPROVED MOISTURE AND THE
LATE CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
THIS POINT. AS OF THIS WRITING...RADAR WAS SHOWING THE DRYLINE
NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSITIONED FROM NEAR WAYSIDE TO MCADOO TO
DICKENS...THEN BENDING MORE EASTWARD. UP TO THIS POINT ONLY A VERY
LIMITED CUMULUS FIELD WAS SEEN LOCALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE /IN FLOYD
COUNTY/...WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR
KBKD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KBBD. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LATTER AREA FOR ROBUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM
LOCALLY. OBVIOUSLY...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN GET GOING
HERE...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH PROSPECTS FOR CI ARE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO INTERACT
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTER
BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM FAR NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE CAPROCK LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL NWP MODELS DO INDICATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT WITH THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE DRY IN THE DEEP
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM ANY
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DRAW CLOSER ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT
AND PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
MEAN INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO
SHARPEN SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY BE A BIT DELAYED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...BUT ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE WITH BREEZY LATE
NIGHT WINDS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...WHILE LOWS OUT EAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE TOASTY...RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES OFF THE CAPROCK.
LONG TERM...
EARLY TO MIDWEEK UPPER PATTERN TO SEE A TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND
CNTL PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE MS VALLEY WITH FLAT TO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THAT PATTERN
THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING MONDAY.
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME TUESDAY AS THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EWD WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. AFTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO IN THE
END THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWING IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THE FCST AREA TO BE JUST ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. FURTHERMORE THE NEAR-MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER WWD AND
POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO STAY FARTHER WEST EACH DAY...POSSIBLY
AS FAR BACK AS THE NM STATE LINE. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH STILL
RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL AS A WHOLE PATTERN
SUGGESTS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BACK TO THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER...
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S PUSHING RH VALUES
DOWN TOWARD 5 PERCENT. ONLY QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESIDE AROUND THE LOW END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW
AFTN/EVNG AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE A FINAL CALL ON WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 93 55 89 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 61 95 56 91 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 61 96 56 93 53 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 62 97 58 93 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 65 98 58 95 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 95 59 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 98 59 95 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 100 61 98 61 / 10 20 10 0 10
SPUR 66 102 58 99 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 101 69 101 64 / 10 20 20 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
01
360
FXUS64 KLUB 172028
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT IS ON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BACKED FLOW...IMPROVED MOISTURE AND THE
LATE CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
THIS POINT. AS OF THIS WRITING...RADAR WAS SHOWING THE DRYLINE
NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSITIONED FROM NEAR WAYSIDE TO MCADOO TO
DICKENS...THEN BENDING MORE EASTWARD. UP TO THIS POINT ONLY A VERY
LIMITED CUMULUS FIELD WAS SEEN LOCALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE /IN FLOYD
COUNTY/...WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR
KBKD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KBBD. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LATTER AREA FOR ROBUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM
LOCALLY. OBVIOUSLY...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN GET GOING
HERE...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH PROSPECTS FOR CI ARE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO INTERACT
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTER
BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM FAR NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE CAPROCK LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL NWP MODELS DO INDICATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT WITH THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE DRY IN THE DEEP
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM ANY
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DRAW CLOSER ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT
AND PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
MEAN INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO
SHARPEN SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY BE A BIT DELAYED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...BUT ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE WITH BREEZY LATE
NIGHT WINDS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...WHILE LOWS OUT EAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE TOASTY...RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES OFF THE CAPROCK.
&&
.LONG TERM...
EARLY TO MIDWEEK UPPER PATTERN TO SEE A TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND
CNTL PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE MS VALLEY WITH FLAT TO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THAT PATTERN
THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING MONDAY.
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME TUESDAY AS THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EWD WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. AFTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO IN THE
END THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWING IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THE FCST AREA TO BE JUST ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. FURTHERMORE THE NEAR-MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER WWD AND
POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO STAY FARTHER WEST EACH DAY...POSSIBLY
AS FAR BACK AS THE NM STATE LINE. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH STILL
RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL AS A WHOLE PATTERN
SUGGESTS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BACK TO THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S PUSHING RH VALUES
DOWN TOWARD 5 PERCENT. ONLY QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESIDE AROUND THE LOW END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW
AFTN/EVNG AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE A FINAL CALL ON WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 93 55 89 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 61 95 56 91 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 61 96 56 93 53 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 62 97 58 93 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 65 98 58 95 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 95 59 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 98 59 95 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 100 61 98 61 / 10 20 10 0 10
SPUR 66 102 58 99 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 101 69 101 64 / 10 20 20 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/07
678
FXUS64 KLUB 171749
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
MORNING BOUT OF STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO CLEAR AND WILL EXIT
KCDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BEYOND THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE IT COULD SPARK A
STORM...BUT PROSPECTS OF THIS ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
KCDS TAF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK WESTWARD
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND TEND TO HOLD THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND BEST PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
NORTHWARD. THAT SAID...KCDS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR IF THE MOISTURE SURGE IS BETTER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB LATE TONIGHT UNDERNEATH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN VISIT BOTH TERMINALS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHICH WILL SEE THE SUN VERY SOON. HAVE UPDATED
THE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
HEAT...WITH MANY SPOTS NEAR OR ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND HELP KEEP HIGHS
DOWN IN THE 90S. OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH AT LUBBOCK IS 101
DEGREES /SET IN 1996/...SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER THIS
CAN BE TOUCHED OR ECLIPSED. AS REFLECTED IN THE BROAD FOG/STRATUS
DECK THIS MORNING...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MADE A STRONG PUSH WELL
UP ONTO THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WAS
ALREADY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE DRYLINE TO STRETCH
ROUGHLY FROM A TULIA TO GUTHRIE LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EYES
WILL BE ON THIS BOUNDARY FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED MOIST CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MINIMAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
WILL KEEP THE INSTABILITY CAPPED LOCALLY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
MAY BE TO OUR EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY FORM WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INTENSE HEATING ARE
MAXIMIZED. THAT SAID...IF A STORM CAN FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LOCALLY...THERE WILL BE STRONG INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND MODEST
SHEAR...SO IT WOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH POPS AT OR
BELOW 10 PERCENT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A HART TO
LUBBOCK TO POST TO ASPERMONT LINE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...WITH THE LUBBOCK
AIRPORT DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/8 MILE RECENTLY...THOUGH WE DO EXPECT
THE VISIBILITIES TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
HENCE...HAVE CHOSEN TO HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED ATTM.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 93 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 61 95 58 90 56 / 10 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 59 96 57 90 58 / 0 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 63 97 58 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 65 98 59 91 59 / 0 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 65 96 60 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 98 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 99 64 95 61 / 10 20 20 0 10
SPUR 65 102 61 95 62 / 10 20 10 0 10
ASPERMONT 70 101 64 99 63 / 10 20 20 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99/99
877
FXUS64 KLUB 171711 AAB
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHICH WILL SEE THE SUN VERY SOON. HAVE UPDATED
THE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
HEAT...WITH MANY SPOTS NEAR OR ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND HELP KEEP HIGHS
DOWN IN THE 90S. OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH AT LUBBOCK IS 101
DEGREES /SET IN 1996/...SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER THIS
CAN BE TOUCHED OR ECLIPSED. AS REFLECTED IN THE BROAD FOG/STRATUS
DECK THIS MORNING...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MADE A STRONG PUSH WELL
UP ONTO THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WAS
ALREADY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE DRYLINE TO STRETCH
ROUGHLY FROM A TULIA TO GUTHRIE LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EYES
WILL BE ON THIS BOUNDARY FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED MOIST CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MINIMAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
WILL KEEP THE INSTABILITY CAPPED LOCALLY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
MAY BE TO OUR EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY FORM WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INTENSE HEATING ARE
MAXIMIZED. THAT SAID...IF A STORM CAN FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LOCALLY...THERE WILL BE STRONG INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND MODEST
SHEAR...SO IT WOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH POPS AT OR
BELOW 10 PERCENT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A HART TO
LUBBOCK TO POST TO ASPERMONT LINE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...WITH THE LUBBOCK
AIRPORT DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/8 MILE RECENTLY...THOUGH WE DO EXPECT
THE VISIBILITIES TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
HENCE...HAVE CHOSEN TO HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED ATTM.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE PERSISTED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...SOME DEGREE OF LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT KLBB WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG ROLL IN EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING CLEARS SKIES OUT BY 15Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP ADVERTISING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 98 58 93 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 100 61 95 58 90 / 10 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 100 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 99 63 97 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 65 98 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 98 65 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 65 98 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 68 99 64 95 / 10 10 20 20 0
SPUR 101 65 102 61 95 / 0 10 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 103 70 101 64 99 / 10 10 20 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99
510
FXUS64 KLUB 171353 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
853 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A HART TO
LUBBOCK TO POST TO ASPERMONT LINE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...WITH THE LUBBOCK
AIRPORT DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/8 MILE RECENTLY...THOUGH WE DO EXPECT
THE VISIBILITIES TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
HENCE...HAVE CHOSEN TO HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED ATTM.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE PERSISTED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...SOME DEGREE OF LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT KLBB WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG ROLL IN EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING CLEARS SKIES OUT BY 15Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP ADVERTISING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 98 58 93 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 100 61 95 58 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 100 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 99 63 97 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 65 98 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 98 65 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 65 98 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 68 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 20 0
SPUR 101 65 102 61 95 / 0 0 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 103 70 101 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99
684
FXUS64 KLUB 171211
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
711 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE PERSISTED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...SOME DEGREE OF LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT KLBB WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG ROLL IN EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING CLEARS SKIES OUT BY 15Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP ADVERTISING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 98 58 93 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 100 61 95 58 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 100 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 99 63 97 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 65 98 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 98 65 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 65 98 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 68 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 20 0
SPUR 101 65 102 61 95 / 0 0 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 103 70 101 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31
139
FXUS64 KLUB 170858
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 98 58 93 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 100 61 95 58 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 100 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 99 63 97 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 65 98 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 98 65 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 65 98 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 68 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 20 0
SPUR 101 65 102 61 95 / 0 0 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 103 70 101 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31/26
013
FXUS64 KLUB 170444
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
CIGS BELOW 1000FT WERE NOT FAR OFF TO THE EAST OF KCDS AND RAPIDLY
MOVING WEST. LOWERED VISBYS MAY LAG BEHIND THE ADVECTION OF LOW
STRATUS INTO THE TERMINAL. THERE STILL EXISTS HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT INTO KLBB. BASED ON HOW FAST
THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING AND TAKING A PERSISTENCE FORECAST INTO
ACCOUNT...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT KLBB FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
REDUCED FLIGHT RULES WILL DISSIPATE OUT OF KLBB QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AT
KCDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FORT SUMNER NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS
DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY WEST OF EARLIER PROJECTIONS BUT HAS A DETERMINED
EASTERLY MOTION WITH DEEPLY MIXED DRY AND HOT AIRMASS TO THE WEST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY JUST WEST OF
THE I-27 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 400 PM AND 500 PM...BEFORE EDGING OFF TO
THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING AS FAR EAST AS CHILDRESS OR PADUCAH.
MIXED LAYER CAPES INDICATE ENERGY POTENTIAL NEAR 1500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z SO WOULD
PRODUCE AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST OR EVEN LARGE HAIL
EVENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WOULD TAP INTO THE HIGHER
CAPE AIRMASS LYING NEAR THE RED RIVER.
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD BUILD ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ON FRIDAY. BEST SUB-MENTIONABLE CHANCES MIGHT RUN FROM THE
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE TO THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THOUGH WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE /ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES/ LATE
SATURDAY WHILE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
ADVANCE STEADILY THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WITH A LEAD NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL
CARRY MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WHERE A SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS WITH LIGHT BUT
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. PRESSURES WILL THEN FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY MIX/ADVANCE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WELL OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH
GIVEN THE SETUP WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAT CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT SINCE IT
APPEARS FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT NWP DOES SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT A FAIR AMOUNT ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT STILL COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
THIS INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY WEAK BUT IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES
BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL DRAG THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
GUSTY...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE. SIMILAR WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES UNDER A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK BUT LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR COOLING INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING AS A DRYLINE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR
THE AREA. THIS DRYLINE COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MOISTURE RETURN...DRYLINE LOCATION AND UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AT THE FAR END OF THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID TREND POPS UPWARD WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CAPROCK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AT THE 20 FT
LEVEL...TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES PLUNGE
BELOW 10 PERCENT /TO AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT/. HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TOASTY...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA WIDE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 98 58 94 53 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 58 100 61 95 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 59 100 59 96 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 60 99 63 96 59 / 10 0 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 61 100 64 97 59 / 10 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 57 98 65 95 59 / 0 0 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 59 99 65 95 60 / 10 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 68 99 63 / 20 10 10 20 30
SPUR 64 101 65 97 63 / 20 10 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 103 70 99 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
01
471
FXUS64 KLUB 162351
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS AND VISBYS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER AT KLBB IF CONDITIONS DO
DETERIORATE. MODELS CURRENTLY FORECAST THE EDGE OF THE CIGS/VISBYS
TO COME CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
SCOUR OUT QUICKLY AT KLBB BUT LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT KCDS
WHERE THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FORT SUMNER NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS
DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY WEST OF EARLIER PROJECTIONS BUT HAS A DETERMINED
EASTERLY MOTION WITH DEEPLY MIXED DRY AND HOT AIRMASS TO THE WEST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY JUST WEST OF
THE I-27 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 400 PM AND 500 PM...BEFORE EDGING OFF TO
THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING AS FAR EAST AS CHILDRESS OR PADUCAH.
MIXED LAYER CAPES INDICATE ENERGY POTENTIAL NEAR 1500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z SO WOULD
PRODUCE AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST OR EVEN LARGE HAIL
EVENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WOULD TAP INTO THE HIGHER
CAPE AIRMASS LYING NEAR THE RED RIVER.
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD BUILD ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ON FRIDAY. BEST SUB-MENTIONABLE CHANCES MIGHT RUN FROM THE
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE TO THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THOUGH WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE /ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES/ LATE
SATURDAY WHILE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
ADVANCE STEADILY THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WITH A LEAD NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL
CARRY MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WHERE A SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS WITH LIGHT BUT
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. PRESSURES WILL THEN FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY MIX/ADVANCE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WELL OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH
GIVEN THE SETUP WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAT CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT SINCE IT
APPEARS FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT NWP DOES SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT A FAIR AMOUNT ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT STILL COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
THIS INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY WEAK BUT IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES
BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL DRAG THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
GUSTY...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE. SIMILAR WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES UNDER A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK BUT LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR COOLING INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING AS A DRYLINE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR
THE AREA. THIS DRYLINE COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MOISTURE RETURN...DRYLINE LOCATION AND UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AT THE FAR END OF THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID TREND POPS UPWARD WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CAPROCK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AT THE 20 FT
LEVEL...TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES PLUNGE
BELOW 10 PERCENT /TO AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT/. HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TOASTY...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA WIDE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 98 58 94 53 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 58 100 61 95 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 59 100 59 96 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 60 99 63 96 59 / 10 0 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 61 100 64 97 59 / 10 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 57 98 65 95 59 / 0 0 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 59 99 65 95 60 / 10 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 68 99 63 / 20 10 10 20 30
SPUR 64 101 65 97 63 / 20 10 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 103 70 99 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
01
340
FXUS64 KLUB 162035
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FORT SUMNER NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS
DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY WEST OF EARLIER PROJECTIONS BUT HAS A DETERMINED
EASTERLY MOTION WITH DEEPLY MIXED DRY AND HOT AIRMASS TO THE WEST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY JUST WEST OF
THE I-27 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 400 PM AND 500 PM...BEFORE EDGING OFF TO
THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING AS FAR EAST AS CHILDRESS OR PADUCAH.
MIXED LAYER CAPES INDICATE ENERGY POTENTIAL NEAR 1500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z SO WOULD
PRODUCE AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST OR EVEN LARGE HAIL
EVENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WOULD TAP INTO THE HIGHER
CAPE AIRMASS LYING NEAR THE RED RIVER.
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD BUILD ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ON FRIDAY. BEST SUB-MENTIONABLE CHANCES MIGHT RUN FROM THE
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE TO THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THOUGH WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE /ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES/ LATE
SATURDAY WHILE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
ADVANCE STEADILY THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WITH A LEAD NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL
CARRY MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WHERE A SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS WITH LIGHT BUT
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. PRESSURES WILL THEN FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY MIX/ADVANCE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WELL OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH
GIVEN THE SETUP WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAT CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT SINCE IT
APPEARS FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT NWP DOES SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT A FAIR AMOUNT ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT STILL COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
THIS INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY WEAK BUT IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES
BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL DRAG THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
GUSTY...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE. SIMILAR WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES UNDER A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK BUT LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR COOLING INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING AS A DRYLINE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR
THE AREA. THIS DRYLINE COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MOISTURE RETURN...DRYLINE LOCATION AND UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AT THE FAR END OF THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID TREND POPS UPWARD WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CAPROCK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AT THE 20 FT
LEVEL...TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES PLUNGE
BELOW 10 PERCENT /TO AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT/. HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TOASTY...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA WIDE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 98 58 94 53 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 58 100 61 95 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 59 100 59 96 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 60 99 63 96 59 / 10 0 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 61 100 64 97 59 / 10 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 57 98 65 95 59 / 0 0 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 59 99 65 95 60 / 10 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 68 99 63 / 20 10 10 20 30
SPUR 64 101 65 97 63 / 20 10 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 103 70 99 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
05/23
103
FXUS64 KLUB 161729
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
SURFACE DRY-LINE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF KLBB WILL BE A
POSSIBLE LOCATION FOR HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF KLBB. AN UPPER
LEVEL CAP WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE AT ODDS WITH A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE EDGING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO. SLIM POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR
KLBB. ANY THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY TO PERSIST AS FAR EAST AS KCDS
ALTHOUGH DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH AN IFR CLOUD LAYER LIKELY
TO SPREAD INTO KCDS AND THEN KLBB OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
DROP TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS AT KLBB AGAIN NEAR DAYBREAK. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...
FOG AND STRATUS CLEARING RAPIDLY AT KLBB. QUICK TAF AMENDMENT TO
CLEAR OUT TEMPO GROUP AND ALSO TO ADJUST FOR A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE THROUGH THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT KLBB THOUGH THE CITY REMAINS
CAVU AS OF THIS WRITING...THUS...THE FIELD IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.
THESE REDUCTIONS ARE BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD WASH OUT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING.
THEREAFTER...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS AFFECTING THE AIRPORT ONLY ABOUT 10-20 PCT AT THIS TIME
THUS PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAF. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD BASES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIKELY
UNDER ANYTHING THAT PRECIPITATES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WHILE MODEST RIDGING IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WREAKED HAVOC NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...SMALL SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO OUT TO EL PASO. IN COMPARING RAOBS WITH
00Z INITIALIZATION...NWP SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYZED THIS FEATURE JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT THE OBS SUGGEST IS CLOSER TO REALITY. GIVEN AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER...THIS WILL PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE THENCE OUT TOWARD THE BIG BEND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ALL THREE MAJOR NWP SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPWARD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA. AT 2AM THIS BDRY WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON. THIS PLUS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD END UP NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
SUNRISE AND MIX EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS
FAR AS YESTERDAY...PERHAPS ENDING UP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR. WESTERN EXTENT OF THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG WILL EXIST. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE
NARROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE ANEMIC
WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT.
GIVEN ANGLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY IN
WEST TEXAS. FARTHER WEST...SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
OUT WEST...THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN.
LONG TERM...
WE WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TOMORROW...THANKS TO AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATING UA RIDGE AND 850 MB TEMPS AOA 30 DEGREES. THE TEMP AT
KLBB IS FORECAST TO BE 99 DEGREES WHICH IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1996 /COULD BE A CLOSE CALL/. CONCURRENTLY A BROAD UA
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ESE TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WHICH
WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. AS SUCH...SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TOMORROW GIVEN A STRONG CAP...BUT THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE THE
CASE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE TREKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THUS NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL COOL TEMPS OFF JUST A BIT /LOWER TO
UPPER 90S/ BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE
REGION LEADING TO BREEZY S TO SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND AS SUCH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE AFTN. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO ABOVE NORM TEMPS...RHS 5-15 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY IS IMPROVED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND THE CAP APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AN EXITING UA RIDGE AND HENCE SUBSIDENCE BEING
LESS INFLUENTIAL. MODEL RUNS GENERALLY BREAK OUT STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING /AFTER 18Z/ COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-3.0 KJ/KG COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ELEVATED STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THIS QPF SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.
AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE BROAD UA DISTURBANCE EJECTS NE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO FILTER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL NOT COOL US DOWN MUCH /80S AND 90S/ BUT WILL AID IN
ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WRLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ON MONDAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY /80S AND 90S/. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND
DOWN ITS ASSOCIATED FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING /PER THE ECMWF/ OR HANGING UP ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE IT WASHES OUT /PER THE GFS/. THUS...TEMPS WILL
EITHER BY RELATIVELY WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IF FOLLOWING THE GFS
AND ECMWF RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF ATTM /HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S/ AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO IS A
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS CURRENT GFS RUN...VERSUS THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF. UA RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND
WARMTH WILL RESUME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 58 96 60 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
TULIA 91 60 98 62 94 / 20 20 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 61 98 64 95 / 20 20 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 95 60 98 64 95 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 62 100 67 96 / 20 20 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 58 96 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 98 60 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 63 96 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 94 66 100 65 96 / 20 20 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 95 69 102 68 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
127
FXUS64 KLUB 161358
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
858 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
FOG AND STRATUS CLEARING RAPIDLY AT KLBB. QUICK TAF AMENDMENT TO
CLEAR OUT TEMPO GROUP AND ALSO TO ADJUST FOR A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE THROUGH THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT KLBB THOUGH THE CITY REMAINS
CAVU AS OF THIS WRITING...THUS...THE FIELD IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.
THESE REDUCTIONS ARE BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD WASH OUT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING.
THEREAFTER...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS AFFECTING THE AIRPORT ONLY ABOUT 10-20 PCT AT THIS TIME
THUS PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAF. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD BASES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIKELY
UNDER ANYTHING THAT PRECIPITATES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WHILE MODEST RIDGING IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WREAKED HAVOC NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...SMALL SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO OUT TO EL PASO. IN COMPARING RAOBS WITH
00Z INITIALIZATION...NWP SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYZED THIS FEATURE JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT THE OBS SUGGEST IS CLOSER TO REALITY. GIVEN AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER...THIS WILL PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE THENCE OUT TOWARD THE BIG BEND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ALL THREE MAJOR NWP SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPWARD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA. AT 2AM THIS BDRY WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON. THIS PLUS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD END UP NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
SUNRISE AND MIX EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS
FAR AS YESTERDAY...PERHAPS ENDING UP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR. WESTERN EXTENT OF THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG WILL EXIST. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE
NARROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE ANEMIC
WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT.
GIVEN ANGLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY IN
WEST TEXAS. FARTHER WEST...SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
OUT WEST...THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN.
LONG TERM...
WE WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TOMORROW...THANKS TO AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATING UA RIDGE AND 850 MB TEMPS AOA 30 DEGREES. THE TEMP AT
KLBB IS FORECAST TO BE 99 DEGREES WHICH IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1996 /COULD BE A CLOSE CALL/. CONCURRENTLY A BROAD UA
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ESE TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WHICH
WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. AS SUCH...SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TOMORROW GIVEN A STRONG CAP...BUT THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE THE
CASE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE TREKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THUS NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL COOL TEMPS OFF JUST A BIT /LOWER TO
UPPER 90S/ BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE
REGION LEADING TO BREEZY S TO SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND AS SUCH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE AFTN. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO ABOVE NORM TEMPS...RHS 5-15 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY IS IMPROVED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND THE CAP APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AN EXITING UA RIDGE AND HENCE SUBSIDENCE BEING
LESS INFLUENTIAL. MODEL RUNS GENERALLY BREAK OUT STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING /AFTER 18Z/ COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-3.0 KJ/KG COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ELEVATED STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THIS QPF SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.
AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE BROAD UA DISTURBANCE EJECTS NE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO FILTER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL NOT COOL US DOWN MUCH /80S AND 90S/ BUT WILL AID IN
ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WRLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ON MONDAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY /80S AND 90S/. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND
DOWN ITS ASSOCIATED FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING /PER THE ECMWF/ OR HANGING UP ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE IT WASHES OUT /PER THE GFS/. THUS...TEMPS WILL
EITHER BY RELATIVELY WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IF FOLLOWING THE GFS
AND ECMWF RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF ATTM /HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S/ AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO IS A
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS CURRENT GFS RUN...VERSUS THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF. UA RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND
WARMTH WILL RESUME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 58 96 60 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
TULIA 91 60 98 62 94 / 20 20 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 61 98 64 95 / 20 20 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 95 60 98 64 95 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 62 100 67 96 / 20 20 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 58 96 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 98 60 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 63 96 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 94 66 100 65 96 / 20 20 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 95 69 102 68 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023-024-029-030-035-036.
&&
$$
99/99/05
762
FXUS64 KLUB 161121
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT KLBB THOUGH THE CITY REMAINS
CAVU AS OF THIS WRITING...THUS...THE FIELD IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.
THESE REDUCTIONS ARE BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD WASH OUT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING.
THEREAFTER...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS AFFECTING THE AIRPORT ONLY ABOUT 10-20 PCT AT THIS TIME
THUS PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAF. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD BASES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIKELY
UNDER ANYTHING THAT PRECIPITATES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WHILE MODEST RIDGING IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WREAKED HAVOC NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...SMALL SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO OUT TO EL PASO. IN COMPARING RAOBS WITH
00Z INITIALIZATION...NWP SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYZED THIS FEATURE JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT THE OBS SUGGEST IS CLOSER TO REALITY. GIVEN AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER...THIS WILL PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE THENCE OUT TOWARD THE BIG BEND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ALL THREE MAJOR NWP SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPWARD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA. AT 2AM THIS BDRY WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON. THIS PLUS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD END UP NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
SUNRISE AND MIX EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS
FAR AS YESTERDAY...PERHAPS ENDING UP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR. WESTERN EXTENT OF THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG WILL EXIST. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE
NARROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE ANEMIC
WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT.
GIVEN ANGLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY IN
WEST TEXAS. FARTHER WEST...SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
OUT WEST...THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN.
LONG TERM...
WE WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TOMORROW...THANKS TO AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATING UA RIDGE AND 850 MB TEMPS AOA 30 DEGREES. THE TEMP AT
KLBB IS FORECAST TO BE 99 DEGREES WHICH IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1996 /COULD BE A CLOSE CALL/. CONCURRENTLY A BROAD UA
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ESE TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WHICH
WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. AS SUCH...SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TOMORROW GIVEN A STRONG CAP...BUT THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE THE
CASE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE TREKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THUS NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL COOL TEMPS OFF JUST A BIT /LOWER TO
UPPER 90S/ BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE
REGION LEADING TO BREEZY S TO SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND AS SUCH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE AFTN. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO ABOVE NORM TEMPS...RHS 5-15 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY IS IMPROVED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND THE CAP APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AN EXITING UA RIDGE AND HENCE SUBSIDENCE BEING
LESS INFLUENTIAL. MODEL RUNS GENERALLY BREAK OUT STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING /AFTER 18Z/ COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-3.0 KJ/KG COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ELEVATED STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THIS QPF SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.
AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE BROAD UA DISTURBANCE EJECTS NE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO FILTER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL NOT COOL US DOWN MUCH /80S AND 90S/ BUT WILL AID IN
ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WRLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ON MONDAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY /80S AND 90S/. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND
DOWN ITS ASSOCIATED FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING /PER THE ECMWF/ OR HANGING UP ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE IT WASHES OUT /PER THE GFS/. THUS...TEMPS WILL
EITHER BY RELATIVELY WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IF FOLLOWING THE GFS
AND ECMWF RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF ATTM /HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S/ AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO IS A
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS CURRENT GFS RUN...VERSUS THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF. UA RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND
WARMTH WILL RESUME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 58 96 60 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
TULIA 91 60 98 62 94 / 20 20 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 61 98 64 95 / 20 20 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 95 60 98 64 95 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 62 100 67 96 / 20 20 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 58 96 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 98 60 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 63 96 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 94 66 100 65 96 / 20 20 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 95 69 102 68 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
449
FXUS64 KLUB 160921
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
WHILE MODEST RIDGING IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WREAKED HAVOC NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...SMALL SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO OUT TO EL PASO. IN COMPARING RAOBS WITH
00Z INITIALIZATION...NWP SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYZED THIS FEATURE JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT THE OBS SUGGEST IS CLOSER TO REALITY. GIVEN AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER...THIS WILL PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE THENCE OUT TOWARD THE BIG BEND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ALL THREE MAJOR NWP SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPWARD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA. AT 2AM THIS BDRY WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON. THIS PLUS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD END UP NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
SUNRISE AND MIX EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS
FAR AS YESTERDAY...PERHAPS ENDING UP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR. WESTERN EXTENT OF THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG WILL EXIST. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE
NARROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE ANEMIC
WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT.
GIVEN ANGLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY IN
WEST TEXAS. FARTHER WEST...SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
OUT WEST...THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM...
WE WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TOMORROW...THANKS TO AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATING UA RIDGE AND 850 MB TEMPS AOA 30 DEGREES. THE TEMP AT
KLBB IS FORECAST TO BE 99 DEGREES WHICH IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1996 /COULD BE A CLOSE CALL/. CONCURRENTLY A BROAD UA
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ESE TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WHICH
WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. AS SUCH...SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TOMORROW GIVEN A STRONG CAP...BUT THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE THE
CASE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE TREKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THUS NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL COOL TEMPS OFF JUST A BIT /LOWER TO
UPPER 90S/ BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE
REGION LEADING TO BREEZY S TO SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND AS SUCH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE AFTN. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO ABOVE NORM TEMPS...RHS 5-15 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY IS IMPROVED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND THE CAP APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AN EXITING UA RIDGE AND HENCE SUBSIDENCE BEING
LESS INFLUENTIAL. MODEL RUNS GENERALLY BREAK OUT STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING /AFTER 18Z/ COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-3.0 KJ/KG COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ELEVATED STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THIS QPF SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.
AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE BROAD UA DISTURBANCE EJECTS NE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO FILTER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL NOT COOL US DOWN MUCH /80S AND 90S/ BUT WILL AID IN
ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WRLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ON MONDAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY /80S AND 90S/. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND
DOWN ITS ASSOCIATED FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING /PER THE ECMWF/ OR HANGING UP ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE IT WASHES OUT /PER THE GFS/. THUS...TEMPS WILL
EITHER BY RELATIVELY WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IF FOLLOWING THE GFS
AND ECMWF RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF ATTM /HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S/ AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO IS A
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS CURRENT GFS RUN...VERSUS THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF. UA RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND
WARMTH WILL RESUME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 58 96 60 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
TULIA 91 60 98 62 94 / 20 20 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 61 98 64 95 / 20 20 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 95 60 98 64 95 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 62 100 67 96 / 20 20 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 58 96 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 98 60 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 63 96 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 94 66 100 65 96 / 20 20 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 95 69 102 68 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/29
190
FXUS64 KLUB 160428
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
SLIGHT CHANCE AT FOG AND LOW CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY AT KCDS AS WINDS GO LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
INCREDIBLY HIGH IN THIS OCCURRENCE SO HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AT KCDS FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR KLBB.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND TO
CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160. A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
WERE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT WERE QUICKLY
WEAKENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A NUMBER OF CONTRIBUTING AND COMPLICATING FEATURES TODAY...THOUGH
THE SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM NEAR LEVELLAND THROUGH
TAHOKA TOWARDS GAIL AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DRY-LINE WITH A BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL MOISTEN
YET ALSO COOL. SO...SIDED WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS FAVORING THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT TO STEER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DRY-LINE
AREA THOUGH RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL FURTHER NORTH. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS VALID
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STEERS OFF TO THE EAST WHICH CONTRIBUTES TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD MORE CONFIDENTIALLY FILL A NARROW ZONE NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS ZONE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE DISAGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS GO-AROUND.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES
THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE HOTTEST
DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S...WITH EVEN LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOPEFULLY LUBBOCK CAN STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...WHICH
SITS AT 101 DEGREES /SET IN 1996/ THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE MOIST SECTOR CAPPED. THIS MAY CHANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH/ALL OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX/ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE WHILE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON EXACTLY WHEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING SHEAR SUPPORTING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WINDING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY SHUNT
THE DRYLINE /COUPLED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/ EAST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER. THINGS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW.
AFTER PEAKING FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STILL...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 10 0 10
TULIA 57 95 57 98 61 / 20 20 20 0 10
PLAINVIEW 57 95 61 98 64 / 20 20 20 0 10
LEVELLAND 57 96 61 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 57 96 63 100 67 / 20 20 20 0 10
DENVER CITY 59 96 59 96 63 / 20 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 58 97 60 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 62 92 65 98 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
SPUR 60 95 62 100 65 / 20 10 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 96 64 102 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
559
FXUS64 KLUB 160208 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
908 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND TO
CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160. A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
WERE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT WERE QUICKLY
WEAKENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A NUMBER OF CONTRIBUTING AND COMPLICATING FEATURES TODAY...THOUGH
THE SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM NEAR LEVELLAND THROUGH
TAHOKA TOWARDS GAIL AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DRY-LINE WITH A BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL MOISTEN
YET ALSO COOL. SO...SIDED WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS FAVORING THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT TO STEER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DRY-LINE
AREA THOUGH RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL FURTHER NORTH. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS VALID
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STEERS OFF TO THE EAST WHICH CONTRIBUTES TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD MORE CONFIDENTIALLY FILL A NARROW ZONE NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS ZONE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE DISAGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS GO-AROUND.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES
THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE HOTTEST
DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S...WITH EVEN LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOPEFULLY LUBBOCK CAN STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...WHICH
SITS AT 101 DEGREES /SET IN 1996/ THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE MOIST SECTOR CAPPED. THIS MAY CHANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH/ALL OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX/ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE WHILE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON EXACTLY WHEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING SHEAR SUPPORTING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WINDING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY SHUNT
THE DRYLINE /COUPLED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/ EAST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER. THINGS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW.
AFTER PEAKING FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STILL...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 10 0 10
TULIA 57 95 57 98 61 / 20 20 20 0 10
PLAINVIEW 57 95 61 98 64 / 20 20 20 0 10
LEVELLAND 57 96 61 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 57 96 63 100 67 / 20 20 20 0 10
DENVER CITY 59 96 59 96 63 / 20 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 58 97 60 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 62 92 65 98 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
SPUR 60 95 62 100 65 / 20 10 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 96 64 102 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
696
FXUS64 KLUB 152325
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANCE AT REDEVELOPMENT AFFECTING
EITHER TAF SITE. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE VARIABLE EARLY THIS
EVENING AT KLBB WITH DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION BUT GENERAL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT KLBB BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A NUMBER OF CONTRIBUTING AND COMPLICATING FEATURES TODAY...THOUGH
THE SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM NEAR LEVELLAND THROUGH
TAHOKA TOWARDS GAIL AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DRY-LINE WITH A BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL MOISTEN
YET ALSO COOL. SO...SIDED WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS FAVORING THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT TO STEER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DRY-LINE
AREA THOUGH RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL FURTHER NORTH. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS VALID
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STEERS OFF TO THE EAST WHICH CONTRIBUTES TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD MORE CONFIDENTIALLY FILL A NARROW ZONE NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS ZONE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE DISAGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS GO-AROUND.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES
THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE HOTTEST
DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S...WITH EVEN LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOPEFULLY LUBBOCK CAN STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...WHICH
SITS AT 101 DEGREES /SET IN 1996/ THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE MOIST SECTOR CAPPED. THIS MAY CHANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH/ALL OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX/ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE WHILE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON EXACTLY WHEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING SHEAR SUPPORTING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WINDING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY SHUNT
THE DRYLINE /COUPLED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/ EAST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER. THINGS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW.
AFTER PEAKING FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STILL...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 10 0 10
TULIA 57 95 57 98 61 / 20 20 20 0 10
PLAINVIEW 57 95 61 98 64 / 20 20 20 0 10
LEVELLAND 57 96 61 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 57 96 63 100 67 / 20 20 20 0 10
DENVER CITY 59 96 59 96 63 / 20 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 58 97 60 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 62 92 65 98 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
SPUR 60 95 62 100 65 / 20 10 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 96 64 102 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
940
FXUS64 KLUB 152041
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...
A NUMBER OF CONTRIBUTING AND COMPLICATING FEATURES TODAY...THOUGH
THE SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM NEAR LEVELLAND THROUGH
TAHOKA TOWARDS GAIL AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DRY-LINE WITH A BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL MOISTEN
YET ALSO COOL. SO...SIDED WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS FAVORING THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT TO STEER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DRY-LINE
AREA THOUGH RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL FURTHER NORTH. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS VALID
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STEERS OFF TO THE EAST WHICH CONTRIBUTES TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD MORE CONFIDENTIALLY FILL A NARROW ZONE NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS ZONE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE DISAGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS GO-AROUND.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES
THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE HOTTEST
DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S...WITH EVEN LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOPEFULLY LUBBOCK CAN STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...WHICH
SITS AT 101 DEGREES /SET IN 1996/ THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE MOIST SECTOR CAPPED. THIS MAY CHANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH/ALL OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX/ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE WHILE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON EXACTLY WHEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING SHEAR SUPPORTING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WINDING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY SHUNT
THE DRYLINE /COUPLED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/ EAST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER. THINGS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW.
AFTER PEAKING FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STILL...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 10 0 10
TULIA 57 95 57 98 61 / 20 20 20 0 10
PLAINVIEW 57 95 61 98 64 / 20 20 20 0 10
LEVELLAND 57 96 61 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 57 96 63 100 67 / 20 20 20 0 10
DENVER CITY 59 96 59 96 63 / 20 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 58 97 60 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 62 92 65 98 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
SPUR 60 95 62 100 65 / 20 10 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 96 64 102 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
423
FXUS64 KLUB 151749
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1249 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR KLBB WITH A SURFACE DRY-LINE
EDGING WESTWARD TO NEAR KLBB BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE A
FOCUS FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. KCDS NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO COOL TO
MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...DUE TO BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KCDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIMARY
AVIATION THREAT WILL BE HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AT KLBB AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT KCDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WITH THAT
ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED TO AVOID FLYING
UNDER/NEAR PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW WHICH HAD SAT OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MUCH OF THE
LAST WEEK CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING A REGION
OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW MAY ONCE AGAIN CLOSE THOUGH
EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMIZED AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM PORTRAYS A 45KT
LLJ ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS LOOKS ABOUT ON
TARGET PER TTU SODAR DATA FROM REESE/HEREFORD/CHILDRESS.
PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS PROSPECTS FOR TRW ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR CWFA WITH DRYLINE BULGE NEAR
STONEWALL COUNTY BEING DEPICTED BY THE MAJOR NWP PLAYERS. THE NAM
IS ONCE AGAIN DEPICTING HIGH BASED CONVECTION BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
AM HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING OFF ON THIS IDEA GIVEN OUR LOCATION OF
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL EXIST
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL MAKE MENTION OF ISOLATED T OUT WEST
WHILE MAINTAINING SCHC ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. GIVEN CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG AND SINCE IT IS MAY AFTER ALL...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST. GOLF BALL HAIL AND
WINDS TO 60+ MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE THOUGH A WIDESPREAD
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM...
THE OPEN WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE NEARING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES DUE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST...THUS ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL TAKE
SHAPE...THOUGH THE EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS. THE NAM DISPLACES THE DRYLINE
PARALLEL WITH INTERSTATE 27...WHILST THE GFS SHOVES IT EAST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. THE ECMWF MORE OR LESS IS A BLEND OF THE SAID
SOLUTIONS. THE REASON FOR THE DRYLINE WESTWARD BIAS OF THE NAM IS
DUE TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE REGION...THAT IS NOT SHOWN TO
BE AS DEEP PER THE GFS. BY NIGHTFALL...THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO NEAR
THE BORDER AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH BY THE ECMWF
AS WELL /COURTESY OF PRESSURE FALLS/...VERSUS AN EASTWARD SURGE
PER THE GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY
APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. FOCUS
WILL NOW TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. SFC-CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2.0-3.0 KJ/KG AND ADEQUATE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UA RIDGE COMMENCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITED A CAP ACROSS EASTERN LOCALES BECAUSE OF THE SAID UA RIDGE.
THE NAM SHOWING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE
DRYLINE EARLY EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING FURTHER ILLUSTRATES
THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION /THE GFS IS VOID OF
PRECIP/. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING-EARLY NIGHT...COINCIDING WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP.
FRIDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL BE TRANSLATING OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS
IS PROJECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
APPEARS VALID /15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/. CONCURRENTLY...A NW
PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THUS
PROMOTING A VEERING TO SW FLOW ALOFT. SFC WINDS WILL RESPOND BY
VEERING TO THE WSW ON THE CAPROCK AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FILTERING IN DRIER AIR. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...THE UA DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DESERT SW SATURDAY /FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS/ AND EJECT NE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/SOUTH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. A 30-35 KT LLJ
COMMENCING FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL TRANSPORT DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S NW
TO 60S SE SATURDAY MORNING THUS RETREATING THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AS BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ENSUE. WITH WELL ABOVE
NORM TEMPS PERSISTING SATURDAY /MID TO UPPER 90S/ FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE ELEVATED. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WITH ADEQUATE
SFC-BASED CAPE...A MINIMAL CAP AND DECENT SHEAR SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
WITH THE SYSTEM NE OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL CREATE ANOTHER WARM DAY /LOW TO MID 90S/ AND ANOTHER DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT WILL ALSO SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO
JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANOTHER BROAD UA DISTURBANCE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL TO HIGH
PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
ATTM...GIVEN DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NOT MUCH
OF A COOL DOWN WITH THE FROPA...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S WITH
A FEW 90S BY TUESDAY. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO SRLY FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THE WARMTH WILL RESUME BY MID-WEEK /UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 94 58 96 57 / 10 10 10 0 10
TULIA 59 92 57 98 59 / 20 20 20 0 10
PLAINVIEW 60 96 61 98 62 / 20 20 20 0 10
LEVELLAND 61 97 61 98 63 / 10 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 62 98 63 100 66 / 20 20 20 0 10
DENVER CITY 63 97 59 96 62 / 10 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 62 98 60 98 63 / 10 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 62 92 65 98 66 / 20 10 20 10 10
SPUR 62 95 62 100 64 / 30 10 20 0 10
ASPERMONT 64 96 64 102 66 / 30 10 20 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
165
FXUS64 KLUB 151059
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
559 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIMARY
AVIATION THREAT WILL BE HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AT KLBB AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT KCDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WITH THAT
ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED TO AVOID FLYING
UNDER/NEAR PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW WHICH HAD SAT OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MUCH OF THE
LAST WEEK CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING A REGION
OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW MAY ONCE AGAIN CLOSE THOUGH
EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMIZED AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM PORTRAYS A 45KT
LLJ ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS LOOKS ABOUT ON
TARGET PER TTU SODAR DATA FROM REESE/HEREFORD/CHILDRESS.
PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS PROSPECTS FOR TRW ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR CWFA WITH DRYLINE BULGE NEAR
STONEWALL COUNTY BEING DEPICTED BY THE MAJOR NWP PLAYERS. THE NAM
IS ONCE AGAIN DEPICTING HIGH BASED CONVECTION BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
AM HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING OFF ON THIS IDEA GIVEN OUR LOCATION OF
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL EXIST
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL MAKE MENTION OF ISOLATED T OUT WEST
WHILE MAINTAINING SCHC ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. GIVEN CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG AND SINCE IT IS MAY AFTER ALL...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST. GOLF BALL HAIL AND
WINDS TO 60+ MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE THOUGH A WIDESPREAD
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM...
THE OPEN WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE NEARING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES DUE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST...THUS ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL TAKE
SHAPE...THOUGH THE EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS. THE NAM DISPLACES THE DRYLINE
PARALLEL WITH INTERSTATE 27...WHILST THE GFS SHOVES IT EAST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. THE ECMWF MORE OR LESS IS A BLEND OF THE SAID
SOLUTIONS. THE REASON FOR THE DRYLINE WESTWARD BIAS OF THE NAM IS
DUE TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE REGION...THAT IS NOT SHOWN TO
BE AS DEEP PER THE GFS. BY NIGHTFALL...THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO NEAR
THE BORDER AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH BY THE ECMWF
AS WELL /COURTESY OF PRESSURE FALLS/...VERSUS AN EASTWARD SURGE
PER THE GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY
APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. FOCUS
WILL NOW TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. SFC-CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2.0-3.0 KJ/KG AND ADEQUATE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UA RIDGE COMMENCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITED A CAP ACROSS EASTERN LOCALES BECAUSE OF THE SAID UA RIDGE.
THE NAM SHOWING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE
DRYLINE EARLY EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING FURTHER ILLUSTRATES
THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION /THE GFS IS VOID OF
PRECIP/. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING-EARLY NIGHT...COINCIDING WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP.
FRIDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL BE TRANSLATING OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS
IS PROJECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
APPEARS VALID /15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/. CONCURRENTLY...A NW
PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THUS
PROMOTING A VEERING TO SW FLOW ALOFT. SFC WINDS WILL RESPOND BY
VEERING TO THE WSW ON THE CAPROCK AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FILTERING IN DRIER AIR. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...THE UA DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DESERT SW SATURDAY /FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS/ AND EJECT NE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/SOUTH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. A 30-35 KT LLJ
COMMENCING FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL TRANSPORT DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S NW
TO 60S SE SATURDAY MORNING THUS RETREATING THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AS BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ENSUE. WITH WELL ABOVE
NORM TEMPS PERSISTING SATURDAY /MID TO UPPER 90S/ FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE ELEVATED. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WITH ADEQUATE
SFC-BASED CAPE...A MINIMAL CAP AND DECENT SHEAR SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
WITH THE SYSTEM NE OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL CREATE ANOTHER WARM DAY /LOW TO MID 90S/ AND ANOTHER DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT WILL ALSO SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO
JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANOTHER BROAD UA DISTURBANCE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL TO HIGH
PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
ATTM...GIVEN DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NOT MUCH
OF A COOL DOWN WITH THE FROPA...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S WITH
A FEW 90S BY TUESDAY. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO SRLY FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THE WARMTH WILL RESUME BY MID-WEEK /UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 58 94 58 96 / 10 10 10 10 0
TULIA 92 59 92 59 98 / 10 10 10 20 0
PLAINVIEW 93 60 96 62 98 / 10 10 10 20 0
LEVELLAND 91 61 97 62 98 / 10 10 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 93 62 98 64 100 / 10 10 10 20 0
DENVER CITY 90 63 97 62 96 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 90 62 98 62 98 / 10 10 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 89 62 92 64 98 / 20 20 10 20 10
SPUR 93 62 95 63 100 / 20 20 10 20 0
ASPERMONT 90 64 96 65 102 / 20 20 10 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
749
FXUS64 KLUB 150811
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
311 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW WHICH HAD SAT OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MUCH OF THE
LAST WEEK CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING A REGION
OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW MAY ONCE AGAIN CLOSE THOUGH
EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMIZED AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM PORTRAYS A 45KT
LLJ ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS LOOKS ABOUT ON
TARGET PER TTU SODAR DATA FROM REESE/HEREFORD/CHILDRESS.
PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS PROSPECTS FOR TRW ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR CWFA WITH DRYLINE BULGE NEAR
STONEWALL COUNTY BEING DEPICTED BY THE MAJOR NWP PLAYERS. THE NAM
IS ONCE AGAIN DEPICTING HIGH BASED CONVECTION BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
AM HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING OFF ON THIS IDEA GIVEN OUR LOCATION OF
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL EXIST
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL MAKE MENTION OF ISOLATED T OUT WEST
WHILE MAINTAINING SCHC ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. GIVEN CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG AND SINCE IT IS MAY AFTER ALL...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST. GOLF BALL HAIL AND
WINDS TO 60+ MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE THOUGH A WIDESPREAD
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE OPEN WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE NEARING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES DUE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST...THUS ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL TAKE
SHAPE...THOUGH THE EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS. THE NAM DISPLACES THE DRYLINE
PARALLEL WITH INTERSTATE 27...WHILST THE GFS SHOVES IT EAST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. THE ECMWF MORE OR LESS IS A BLEND OF THE SAID
SOLUTIONS. THE REASON FOR THE DRYLINE WESTWARD BIAS OF THE NAM IS
DUE TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE REGION...THAT IS NOT SHOWN TO
BE AS DEEP PER THE GFS. BY NIGHTFALL...THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO NEAR
THE BORDER AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH BY THE ECMWF
AS WELL /COURTESY OF PRESSURE FALLS/...VERSUS AN EASTWARD SURGE
PER THE GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY
APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. FOCUS
WILL NOW TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. SFC-CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2.0-3.0 KJ/KG AND ADEQUATE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UA RIDGE COMMENCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITED A CAP ACROSS EASTERN LOCALES BECAUSE OF THE SAID UA RIDGE.
THE NAM SHOWING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE
DRYLINE EARLY EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING FURTHER ILLUSTRATES
THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION /THE GFS IS VOID OF
PRECIP/. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING-EARLY NIGHT...COINCIDING WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP.
FRIDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL BE TRANSLATING OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS
IS PROJECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
APPEARS VALID /15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/. CONCURRENTLY...A NW
PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THUS
PROMOTING A VEERING TO SW FLOW ALOFT. SFC WINDS WILL RESPOND BY
VEERING TO THE WSW ON THE CAPROCK AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FILTERING IN DRIER AIR. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...THE UA DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DESERT SW SATURDAY /FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS/ AND EJECT NE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/SOUTH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. A 30-35 KT LLJ
COMMENCING FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL TRANSPORT DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S NW
TO 60S SE SATURDAY MORNING THUS RETREATING THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AS BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ENSUE. WITH WELL ABOVE
NORM TEMPS PERSISTING SATURDAY /MID TO UPPER 90S/ FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE ELEVATED. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WITH ADEQUATE
SFC-BASED CAPE...A MINIMAL CAP AND DECENT SHEAR SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
WITH THE SYSTEM NE OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL CREATE ANOTHER WARM DAY /LOW TO MID 90S/ AND ANOTHER DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT WILL ALSO SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO
JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANOTHER BROAD UA DISTURBANCE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL TO HIGH
PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
ATTM...GIVEN DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NOT MUCH
OF A COOL DOWN WITH THE FROPA...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S WITH
A FEW 90S BY TUESDAY. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO SRLY FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THE WARMTH WILL RESUME BY MID-WEEK /UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 58 94 58 96 / 10 10 10 10 0
TULIA 92 59 92 59 98 / 10 10 10 20 0
PLAINVIEW 93 60 96 62 98 / 10 10 10 20 0
LEVELLAND 91 61 97 62 98 / 10 10 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 93 62 98 64 100 / 10 10 10 20 0
DENVER CITY 90 63 97 62 96 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 90 62 98 62 98 / 10 10 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 89 62 92 64 98 / 20 20 10 20 10
SPUR 93 62 95 63 100 / 20 20 10 20 0
ASPERMONT 90 64 96 65 102 / 20 20 10 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/29
978
FXUS64 KLUB 150457 AAB
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1157 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.AVIATION...
THIS EVENINGS STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS NEAR KLBB
TERMINAL...HOWEVER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE FOR KCDS TO
INCLUDE PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME. ANY STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AT BOTH TERMINALS.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WITHIN
THE VCTS RANGE OF KLBB FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE TAF BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE IMPROVING THAT KCDS COULD SEE TSRA AT THE TERMINAL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL HOLD WITH A CB IN THE
CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
BROAD WEAK TROUGHINESS WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.
AIRMASS MIXING FULLY NOW AND DEVELOPING HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD
THAT WILL ONLY LIFT HIGHER LATER IN THE DAY. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND
CAPE FOR A LOW CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDER PERSISTING A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING ALTHOUGH THE DRIER LOWER ATMOSPHERE OBVIOUSLY WILL MAKE RAIN
COVERAGE VERY LIMITED WHILE ALSO INCREASING CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS COVERED BY THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE A SURGE NORTHWEST OF THE
DRY-LINE ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SHOULD SET THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY CORRESPONDINGLY WESTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CLOSE TO CAP-ROCK ESCARPMENT IF NOT
EVEN ONTO IT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW
FORECAST REMAINS MUCH MORE BACKED PER THE WRF/NAM SOLUTION LATE
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE LESS BACKED GFS. WE CHOSE TO BLEND WITH SLIGHT
LEAN TOWARDS THE LATEST WRF/NAM. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE
BROAD TROUGHINESS REGION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERHAPS WITH A
MINOR PERTURBATION OR TWO DROPPING OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW MENTION OF HIGH-BASED THUNDER OVER MOST AREAS ON
THE CAP-ROCK WITH A BETTER CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CAP-ROCK.
SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY ALSO SHOULD BE HIGHER NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DRY-LINE. MILD TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW WINDOWS OF LOW THUNDER CHANCES
PUNCTUATE THE EXTENDED.
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR SOME
TIME WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE OPEN OF THE EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...THOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF QUESTION WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL
BE LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z NAM BEING THE
FARTHEST WEST NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR AT PEAK
HEATING/MIXING...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ONLY HOLDS THE MOISTURE IN THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE WEAK DISTURBANCE CRESTING THE
RIDGE AND PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE OFTEN EASTWARD
BIAS OF THE GFS WITH THE DRYLINE...HAVE LEANED STRONGLY TOWARD THE
NAM IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM...BUT SO
WILL SFC TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S
ON THE CAPROCK...AND THIS COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT DOES APPEAR THE CAP
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG EAST OF THE DRYLINE SO IT MAY BE A FAIRLY
NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE CONVECTION COULD BE MAINTAINED...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ULTIMATE DRYLINE POSITION...HAVE CHOSEN TO
BLANKET THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH A LOW THUNDER MENTION.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN BECOME ROOTED.
THE DRYLINE WILL THEN PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS
THURSDAY/S DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH
MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE WEST. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 30C ALL POINT TO A HOT DAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S COMMON /PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TRIPLE
DIGITS/.
MOISTURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
DRAWS CLOSER AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SHUNT THE DRYLINE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER EVEN THOUGH MINOR COOLING MAY BE
REALIZED AS THICKNESSES DROP SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THE FIRE DANGER
ELEVATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE...THOUGH
THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER PUSH WITH THIS FRONT MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...A RELATIVE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 90 55 94 58 / 10 20 20 10 10
TULIA 58 92 58 92 60 / 10 20 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 59 91 60 96 62 / 10 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 60 92 60 97 62 / 10 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 61 92 63 98 64 / 10 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 61 92 62 97 62 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 92 62 98 62 / 10 20 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 64 91 64 92 64 / 10 30 20 20 20
SPUR 61 93 61 95 63 / 10 20 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 64 92 64 96 66 / 20 30 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
281
FXUS64 KLUB 142336 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WITHIN
THE VCTS RANGE OF KLBB FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE TAF BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE IMPROVING THAT KCDS COULD SEE TSRA AT THE TERMINAL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL HOLD WITH A CB IN THE
CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
BROAD WEAK TROUGHINESS WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.
AIRMASS MIXING FULLY NOW AND DEVELOPING HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD
THAT WILL ONLY LIFT HIGHER LATER IN THE DAY. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND
CAPE FOR A LOW CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDER PERSISTING A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING ALTHOUGH THE DRIER LOWER ATMOSPHERE OBVIOUSLY WILL MAKE RAIN
COVERAGE VERY LIMITED WHILE ALSO INCREASING CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS COVERED BY THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE A SURGE NORTHWEST OF THE
DRY-LINE ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SHOULD SET THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY CORRESPONDINGLY WESTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CLOSE TO CAP-ROCK ESCARPMENT IF NOT
EVEN ONTO IT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW
FORECAST REMAINS MUCH MORE BACKED PER THE WRF/NAM SOLUTION LATE
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE LESS BACKED GFS. WE CHOSE TO BLEND WITH SLIGHT
LEAN TOWARDS THE LATEST WRF/NAM. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE
BROAD TROUGHINESS REGION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERHAPS WITH A
MINOR PERTURBATION OR TWO DROPPING OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW MENTION OF HIGH-BASED THUNDER OVER MOST AREAS ON
THE CAP-ROCK WITH A BETTER CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CAP-ROCK.
SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY ALSO SHOULD BE HIGHER NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DRY-LINE. MILD TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW WINDOWS OF LOW THUNDER CHANCES
PUNCTUATE THE EXTENDED.
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR SOME
TIME WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE OPEN OF THE EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...THOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF QUESTION WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL
BE LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z NAM BEING THE
FARTHEST WEST NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR AT PEAK
HEATING/MIXING...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ONLY HOLDS THE MOISTURE IN THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE WEAK DISTURBANCE CRESTING THE
RIDGE AND PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE OFTEN EASTWARD
BIAS OF THE GFS WITH THE DRYLINE...HAVE LEANED STRONGLY TOWARD THE
NAM IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM...BUT SO
WILL SFC TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S
ON THE CAPROCK...AND THIS COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT DOES APPEAR THE CAP
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG EAST OF THE DRYLINE SO IT MAY BE A FAIRLY
NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE CONVECTION COULD BE MAINTAINED...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ULTIMATE DRYLINE POSITION...HAVE CHOSEN TO
BLANKET THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH A LOW THUNDER MENTION.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN BECOME ROOTED.
THE DRYLINE WILL THEN PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS
THURSDAY/S DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH
MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE WEST. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 30C ALL POINT TO A HOT DAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S COMMON /PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TRIPLE
DIGITS/.
MOISTURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
DRAWS CLOSER AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SHUNT THE DRYLINE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER EVEN THOUGH MINOR COOLING MAY BE
REALIZED AS THICKNESSES DROP SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THE FIRE DANGER
ELEVATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE...THOUGH
THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER PUSH WITH THIS FRONT MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...A RELATIVE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 90 55 94 58 / 10 20 20 10 10
TULIA 58 92 58 92 60 / 10 20 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 59 91 60 96 62 / 10 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 60 92 60 97 62 / 10 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 61 92 63 98 64 / 20 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 61 92 62 97 62 / 20 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 92 62 98 62 / 20 20 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 64 91 64 92 64 / 20 30 20 20 20
SPUR 61 93 61 95 63 / 20 20 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 64 92 64 96 66 / 20 30 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
201
FXUS64 KLUB 142040
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...
BROAD WEAK TROUGHINESS WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.
AIRMASS MIXING FULLY NOW AND DEVELOPING HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD
THAT WILL ONLY LIFT HIGHER LATER IN THE DAY. JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND
CAPE FOR A LOW CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDER PERSISTING A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING ALTHOUGH THE DRIER LOWER ATMOSPHERE OBVIOUSLY WILL MAKE RAIN
COVERAGE VERY LIMITED WHILE ALSO INCREASING CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS COVERED BY THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE A SURGE NORTHWEST OF THE
DRY-LINE ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SHOULD SET THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY CORRESPONDINGLY WESTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CLOSE TO CAP-ROCK ESCARPMENT IF NOT
EVEN ONTO IT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW
FORECAST REMAINS MUCH MORE BACKED PER THE WRF/NAM SOLUTION LATE
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE LESS BACKED GFS. WE CHOSE TO BLEND WITH SLIGHT
LEAN TOWARDS THE LATEST WRF/NAM. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE
BROAD TROUGHINESS REGION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERHAPS WITH A
MINOR PERTURBATION OR TWO DROPPING OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW MENTION OF HIGH-BASED THUNDER OVER MOST AREAS ON
THE CAP-ROCK WITH A BETTER CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CAP-ROCK.
SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY ALSO SHOULD BE HIGHER NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DRY-LINE. MILD TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW WINDOWS OF LOW THUNDER CHANCES
PUNCTUATE THE EXTENDED.
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR SOME
TIME WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE OPEN OF THE EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS
WAKE...THOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF QUESTION WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL
BE LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z NAM BEING THE
FARTHEST WEST NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR AT PEAK
HEATING/MIXING...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ONLY HOLDS THE MOISTURE IN THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE WEAK DISTURBANCE CRESTING THE
RIDGE AND PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE OFTEN EASTWARD
BIAS OF THE GFS WITH THE DRYLINE...HAVE LEANED STRONGLY TOWARD THE
NAM IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM...BUT SO
WILL SFC TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S
ON THE CAPROCK...AND THIS COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT DOES APPEAR THE CAP
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG EAST OF THE DRYLINE SO IT MAY BE A FAIRLY
NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE CONVECTION COULD BE MAINTAINED...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ULTIMATE DRYLINE POSITION...HAVE CHOSEN TO
BLANKET THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH A LOW THUNDER MENTION.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN BECOME ROOTED.
THE DRYLINE WILL THEN PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS
THURSDAY/S DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH
MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE WEST. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 30C ALL POINT TO A HOT DAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S COMMON /PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TRIPLE
DIGITS/.
MOISTURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
DRAWS CLOSER AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SHUNT THE DRYLINE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER EVEN THOUGH MINOR COOLING MAY BE
REALIZED AS THICKNESSES DROP SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THE FIRE DANGER
ELEVATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE...THOUGH
THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER PUSH WITH THIS FRONT MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...A RELATIVE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 90 55 94 58 / 10 20 20 10 10
TULIA 58 92 58 92 60 / 10 20 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 59 91 60 96 62 / 10 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 60 92 60 97 62 / 10 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 61 93 63 98 64 / 20 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 61 92 62 97 62 / 20 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 92 62 98 62 / 20 20 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 64 91 64 92 64 / 20 30 20 20 20
SPUR 61 93 61 95 63 / 20 20 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 64 92 64 96 66 / 20 30 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
382
FXUS64 KLUB 141740
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.AVIATION...
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS UNDERWAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WAS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KLBB AND
SOUTH OF KCDS. SURFACE DRY-LINE SHOULD SURGE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
EARLY TO MID EVENING WHILE A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET TO 40-45 KNOTS
AT THE H850 LEVEL DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. AT THIS POINT WE ANTICIPATE
THAT SURFACE WINDS ALSO WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY
WITH NOT ENOUGH INDICATION OF DE-COUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
TO REQUIRE A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY S/SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES SOUTH OF KCDS AND E/SE
OF KLBB. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF BOTH TAFS ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WILL FINALLY SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO OPEN UP AND MOVE NEWD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 00Z MODEL RUN NOT
PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS ON ITS
APPROACH AND AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS LACKING WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NWD INTO THE FCST AREA WITH SFC DEW POINTS APPROACHING 50F ACROSS
THE SERN ZONES BY 00Z RESULTING IN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE SHOULD ANY STORMS INITIATE. HOWEVER...WEAK 0-6 KFT BULK
SHEAR SUGGESTS LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND A VERY LOW END CHANCE FOR
SEVERE. AS FOR POPS...SLIGHT CHANCE LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
COINCIDES WITH BEST...ALTHOUGH MODEST...MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE.
SEASONALLY WARM DAY IN STORE NOT TOO FAR OFF YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND
NEAR MOS GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TOMORROW AFTN/EARLY EVENING. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL PHASE WITH A UA TROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION...THUS USHERING IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INITIALLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN TO NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY NIGHTFALL WHERE IT WILL THEN WASH OUT. AS
SUCH...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE INITIALLY
SHOWN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW AFTN COINCIDING WITH BEST
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S
/COURTESY OF A 35-40 KT LLJ PROGGED FOR TONIGHT/...WITH PRECIP
PERHAPS EXPANDING TO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT/DRYLINE RETREATS TO NEAR THE BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTN...COINCIDING WITH BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND
MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN ZONES
THEREAFTER /16/00Z-06Z/.
THURSDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTN...BUT THE SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION. THE NAM
EXHIBITS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER /ACCOMPANIED
BY PRECIP/ WHEREAS THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF DISPLACE IT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS /PRECIP SHOWN VIA ECMWF AND CMC BUT NIL PRECIP PER
THE GFS/. WITH THE NAM APPEARING TO BE THE OUTLIER...WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS ATTM...AND WILL BUMP POPS TO 14 PERCENT
ALBEIT BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.
A SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL REMAIN A FIXTURE FOR THE CWA FRIDAY-THE
WEEKEND...AS A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE DIGS ESE ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS SATURDAY...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY THUS VEERING FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ACROSS
THE ERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH A 35-40 KT LLJ COMMENCING FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO
THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY MORNING...AND HENCE THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE THE UA DISTURBANCE
NEARS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...RATHER BREEZY SWRLY
SFC WINDS /25-30 MPH PER MEX GUIDANCE/ WILL FILTER ACROSS LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK THUS SHIFTING THE DRYLINE TO ERN LOCALES AND PROMOTING A
SHARPENING DRYLINE /IN ADDITION TO INCREASING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS/. IT IS NO WONDER PRECIP IS SHOWN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT APPEARS TO LAST VERY LONG GIVEN THE
PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND HENCE BREEZY WRLY WINDS FURTHER
PUSHING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN. THE SYSTEM/S
ACCOMPANIED FRONT IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS FROM PREVIOUS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...PRECIP
IS NIL ATTM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 14 PERCENT ACROSS ERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL AWAIT LATER SOLUTIONS TO SEE IF THIS QPF
SIGNAL PERSIST.
ABOVE NORM TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
WARMEST TEMPS ANTICIPATED LATE WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND WITH THE UA
RIDGE PASSAGE /MID TO UPPER 90S/...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK /MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 89 55 90 57 / 0 10 10 0 0
TULIA 58 91 58 90 59 / 10 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 59 92 60 91 61 / 10 20 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 60 92 60 94 61 / 10 10 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 61 93 62 92 63 / 10 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 61 93 62 95 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 60 93 62 95 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 93 64 89 63 / 20 20 20 10 10
SPUR 61 93 61 90 62 / 20 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 65 92 64 90 65 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
259
FXUS64 KLUB 141119
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY S/SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES SOUTH OF KCDS AND E/SE
OF KLBB. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF BOTH TAFS ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WILL FINALLY SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO OPEN UP AND MOVE NEWD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 00Z MODEL RUN NOT
PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS ON ITS
APPROACH AND AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS LACKING WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NWD INTO THE FCST AREA WITH SFC DEW POINTS APPROACHING 50F ACROSS
THE SERN ZONES BY 00Z RESULTING IN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE SHOULD ANY STORMS INITIATE. HOWEVER...WEAK 0-6 KFT BULK
SHEAR SUGGESTS LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND A VERY LOW END CHANCE FOR
SEVERE. AS FOR POPS...SLIGHT CHANCE LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
COINCIDES WITH BEST...ALTHOUGH MODEST...MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE.
SEASONALLY WARM DAY IN STORE NOT TOO FAR OFF YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND
NEAR MOS GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TOMORROW AFTN/EARLY EVENING. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL PHASE WITH A UA TROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION...THUS USHERING IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INITIALLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN TO NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY NIGHTFALL WHERE IT WILL THEN WASH OUT. AS
SUCH...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE INITIALLY
SHOWN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW AFTN COINCIDING WITH BEST
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S
/COURTESY OF A 35-40 KT LLJ PROGGED FOR TONIGHT/...WITH PRECIP
PERHAPS EXPANDING TO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT/DRYLINE RETREATS TO NEAR THE BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTN...COINCIDING WITH BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND
MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN ZONES
THEREAFTER /16/00Z-06Z/.
THURSDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTN...BUT THE SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION. THE NAM
EXHIBITS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER /ACCOMPANIED
BY PRECIP/ WHEREAS THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF DISPLACE IT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS /PRECIP SHOWN VIA ECMWF AND CMC BUT NIL PRECIP PER
THE GFS/. WITH THE NAM APPEARING TO BE THE OUTLIER...WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS ATTM...AND WILL BUMP POPS TO 14 PERCENT
ALBEIT BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.
A SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL REMAIN A FIXTURE FOR THE CWA FRIDAY-THE
WEEKEND...AS A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE DIGS ESE ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS SATURDAY...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY THUS VEERING FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ACROSS
THE ERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH A 35-40 KT LLJ COMMENCING FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO
THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY MORNING...AND HENCE THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE THE UA DISTURBANCE
NEARS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...RATHER BREEZY SWRLY
SFC WINDS /25-30 MPH PER MEX GUIDANCE/ WILL FILTER ACROSS LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK THUS SHIFTING THE DRYLINE TO ERN LOCALES AND PROMOTING A
SHARPENING DRYLINE /IN ADDITION TO INCREASING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS/. IT IS NO WONDER PRECIP IS SHOWN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT APPEARS TO LAST VERY LONG GIVEN THE
PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND HENCE BREEZY WRLY WINDS FURTHER
PUSHING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN. THE SYSTEM/S
ACCOMPANIED FRONT IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS FROM PREVIOUS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...PRECIP
IS NIL ATTM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 14 PERCENT ACROSS ERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL AWAIT LATER SOLUTIONS TO SEE IF THIS QPF
SIGNAL PERSIST.
ABOVE NORM TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
WARMEST TEMPS ANTICIPATED LATE WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND WITH THE UA
RIDGE PASSAGE /MID TO UPPER 90S/...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK /MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 56 89 55 90 / 10 0 10 10 0
TULIA 87 58 91 58 90 / 10 10 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 87 59 92 60 91 / 10 10 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 86 60 92 60 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 87 61 93 62 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 85 61 93 62 95 / 10 10 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 88 60 93 62 95 / 10 10 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 64 93 64 89 / 10 20 20 20 10
SPUR 89 61 93 61 90 / 10 20 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 91 65 92 64 90 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/29/07
792
FXUS64 KLUB 140747
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
247 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...
WILL FINALLY SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO OPEN UP AND MOVE NEWD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 00Z MODEL RUN NOT
PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS ON ITS
APPROACH AND AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS LACKING WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NWD INTO THE FCST AREA WITH SFC DEW POINTS APPROACHING 50F ACROSS
THE SERN ZONES BY 00Z RESULTING IN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE SHOULD ANY STORMS INITIATE. HOWEVER...WEAK 0-6 KFT BULK
SHEAR SUGGESTS LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND A VERY LOW END CHANCE FOR
SEVERE. AS FOR POPS...SLIGHT CHANCE LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
COINCIDES WITH BEST...ALTHOUGH MODEST...MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE.
SEASONALLY WARM DAY IN STORE NOT TOO FAR OFF YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND
NEAR MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TOMORROW AFTN/EARLY EVENING. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL PHASE WITH A UA TROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION...THUS USHERING IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INITIALLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN TO NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY NIGHTFALL WHERE IT WILL THEN WASH OUT. AS
SUCH...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE INITIALLY
SHOWN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW AFTN COINCIDING WITH BEST
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S
/COURTESY OF A 35-40 KT LLJ PROGGED FOR TONIGHT/...WITH PRECIP
PERHAPS EXPANDING TO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT/DRYLINE RETREATS TO NEAR THE BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTN...COINCIDING WITH BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND
MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN ZONES
THEREAFTER /16/00Z-06Z/.
THURSDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTN...BUT THE SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION. THE NAM
EXHIBITS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER /ACCOMPANIED
BY PRECIP/ WHEREAS THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF DISPLACE IT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS /PRECIP SHOWN VIA ECMWF AND CMC BUT NIL PRECIP PER
THE GFS/. WITH THE NAM APPEARING TO BE THE OUTLIER...WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS ATTM...AND WILL BUMP POPS TO 14 PERCENT
ALBEIT BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.
A SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL REMAIN A FIXTURE FOR THE CWA FRIDAY-THE
WEEKEND...AS A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE DIGS ESE ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS SATURDAY...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY THUS VEERING FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ACROSS
THE ERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH A 35-40 KT LLJ COMMENCING FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO
THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY MORNING...AND HENCE THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE THE UA DISTURBANCE
NEARS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...RATHER BREEZY SWRLY
SFC WINDS /25-30 MPH PER MEX GUIDANCE/ WILL FILTER ACROSS LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK THUS SHIFTING THE DRYLINE TO ERN LOCALES AND PROMOTING A
SHARPENING DRYLINE /IN ADDITION TO INCREASING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS/. IT IS NO WONDER PRECIP IS SHOWN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT APPEARS TO LAST VERY LONG GIVEN THE
PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND HENCE BREEZY WRLY WINDS FURTHER
PUSHING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN. THE SYSTEM/S
ACCOMPANIED FRONT IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS FROM PREVIOUS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...PRECIP
IS NIL ATTM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 14 PERCENT ACROSS ERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL AWAIT LATER SOLUTIONS TO SEE IF THIS QPF
SIGNAL PERSIST.
ABOVE NORM TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
WARMEST TEMPS ANTICIPATED LATE WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND WITH THE UA
RIDGE PASSAGE /MID TO UPPER 90S/...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK /MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 56 89 55 90 / 10 0 10 10 0
TULIA 87 58 91 58 90 / 10 10 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 87 59 92 60 91 / 10 10 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 86 60 92 60 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 88 61 93 62 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 85 61 93 62 95 / 10 10 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 88 60 93 62 95 / 10 10 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 64 93 64 89 / 10 20 20 20 10
SPUR 89 61 93 61 90 / 10 20 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 91 65 92 64 90 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/29
694
FXUS64 KLUB 140456 AAB
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1156 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE HAS NOT INCREASED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT KLBB
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT KLBB COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS AFTERNOON THE CWA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE OVER
THE 4-CORNERS AND AN OLD CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
AT THE SFC...MOISTURE WAS JUST BEGINNING TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE NRN GULF
COAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NEWD ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM IMPINGES ON THE WEST COAST. MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 40S...AND LOWER 50S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. WIDELY SCT T-STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD SNEAK INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS
BEFORE 0Z. OTHERWISE WE EXPECT BETTER CHANCES TO ARRIVE TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /NAMELY MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 OUT EAST/. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND WEAK BULK
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ON THE WEAK SIDE OVERALL...WITH AN
ISOLD THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE INVOLVED EXPANDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTWARD FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND NUDGING HIGH
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT.
LAST WEEK`S UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NWRN OLD MEXICO IS
ON TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN
WITH THIS WAVE WILL STILL BE IN ITS INFANCY ON TUESDAY...BUT
BY TUE EVENING A STOUT LLJ AND MOIST AXIS SHOULD REMEDY THE
SITUATION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SEE ISOLATED TSTRMS. BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW`S
TRACK WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR OUR SERN COUNTIES.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...A MINOR TROUGH FARTHER NORTH WILL HAVE
PHASED WITH THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE A MOSTLY NEBULOUS
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MIDDAY BEFORE BACKDOORING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WED NIGHT AND WASHING OUT.
A DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME MORE DEFINED IN OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SERVING TO KEEP OUR SWRN
COUNTIES DRY. IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES LAST THURSDAY
WHEN SCATTERED TSTRMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE MOISTURE DEFICITS WERE LOWER. NOT CONVINCED WE`LL SEE
THE LARGE COVERAGE OF QPF PROGGED BY THE FREQUENTLY NOISY/SENSITIVE
NAM...ALTHOUGH INCORPORATING A BROADER PERSPECTIVE FROM THE SREF
MEAN DOES WARRANT SOME PRECIP MENTION AS FAR WEST AS I-27 WITH
IMPROVED CHANCES FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENSUES THURSDAY BEFORE BACKING SWLY
BY FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT TROUGH...THE CORE
OF WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO KANSAS BY SAT EVENING LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WX THREAT FOR THAT REGION OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. IN OUR HUMBLE ABODE OF THE PLAINS...A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPILLING EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE TROUGH LOOKS
TO INHIBIT ANY REASONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. KEPT POPS SILENT FOR
NOW ON FRI AND SAT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF PROGS A REGIONALLY ACTIVE
DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS OF TEXAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING
SATURDAY`S TROUGH AND THIS COULD PROVE INTERESTING FOR PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDED IT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AND POOLS
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 85 55 89 55 / 0 10 10 10 10
TULIA 55 86 58 89 58 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 54 86 59 91 60 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 55 84 61 93 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 57 85 61 93 62 / 0 10 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 55 84 60 92 61 / 0 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 55 85 60 94 62 / 0 10 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 60 88 63 93 64 / 0 10 20 20 20
SPUR 57 87 62 93 63 / 0 10 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 60 88 66 94 66 / 0 10 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
174
FXUS64 KLUB 132329 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT KLBB COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS AFTERNOON THE CWA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE OVER
THE 4-CORNERS AND AN OLD CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
AT THE SFC...MOISTURE WAS JUST BEGINNING TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE NRN GULF
COAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NEWD ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM IMPINGES ON THE WEST COAST. MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 40S...AND LOWER 50S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. WIDELY SCT T-STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD SNEAK INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS
BEFORE 0Z. OTHERWISE WE EXPECT BETTER CHANCES TO ARRIVE TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /NAMELY MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 OUT EAST/. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND WEAK BULK
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ON THE WEAK SIDE OVERALL...WITH AN
ISOLD THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE INVOLVED EXPANDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTWARD FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND NUDGING HIGH
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT.
LAST WEEK`S UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NWRN OLD MEXICO IS
ON TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN
WITH THIS WAVE WILL STILL BE IN ITS INFANCY ON TUESDAY...BUT
BY TUE EVENING A STOUT LLJ AND MOIST AXIS SHOULD REMEDY THE
SITUATION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SEE ISOLATED TSTRMS. BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW`S
TRACK WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR OUR SERN COUNTIES.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...A MINOR TROUGH FARTHER NORTH WILL HAVE
PHASED WITH THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE A MOSTLY NEBULOUS
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MIDDAY BEFORE BACKDOORING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WED NIGHT AND WASHING OUT.
A DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME MORE DEFINED IN OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SERVING TO KEEP OUR SWRN
COUNTIES DRY. IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES LAST THURSDAY
WHEN SCATTERED TSTRMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE MOISTURE DEFICITS WERE LOWER. NOT CONVINCED WE`LL SEE
THE LARGE COVERAGE OF QPF PROGGED BY THE FREQUENTLY NOISY/SENSITIVE
NAM...ALTHOUGH INCORPORATING A BROADER PERSPECTIVE FROM THE SREF
MEAN DOES WARRANT SOME PRECIP MENTION AS FAR WEST AS I-27 WITH
IMPROVED CHANCES FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENSUES THURSDAY BEFORE BACKING SWLY
BY FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT TROUGH...THE CORE
OF WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO KANSAS BY SAT EVENING LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WX THREAT FOR THAT REGION OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. IN OUR HUMBLE ABODE OF THE PLAINS...A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPILLING EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE TROUGH LOOKS
TO INHIBIT ANY REASONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. KEPT POPS SILENT FOR
NOW ON FRI AND SAT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF PROGS A REGIONALLY ACTIVE
DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS OF TEXAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING
SATURDAY`S TROUGH AND THIS COULD PROVE INTERESTING FOR PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDED IT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AND POOLS
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 85 55 89 55 / 0 10 10 10 10
TULIA 55 86 58 89 58 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 54 86 59 91 60 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 55 84 61 93 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 57 85 61 93 62 / 0 10 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 55 84 60 92 61 / 0 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 55 85 60 94 62 / 0 10 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 60 88 63 93 64 / 0 10 20 20 20
SPUR 57 87 62 93 63 / 0 10 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 60 88 66 94 66 / 0 10 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
833
FXUS64 KLUB 132032
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...
THIS AFTERNOON THE CWA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE OVER
THE 4-CORNERS AND AN OLD CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
AT THE SFC...MOISTURE WAS JUST BEGINNING TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE NRN GULF
COAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NEWD ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM IMPINGES ON THE WEST COAST. MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 40S...AND LOWER 50S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. WIDELY SCT T-STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD SNEAK INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS
BEFORE 0Z. OTHERWISE WE EXPECT BETTER CHANCES TO ARRIVE TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /NAMELY MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 OUT EAST/. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND WEAK BULK
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ON THE WEAK SIDE OVERALL...WITH AN
ISOLD THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE INVOLVED EXPANDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTWARD FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND NUDGING HIGH
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT.
LAST WEEK`S UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NWRN OLD MEXICO IS
ON TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN
WITH THIS WAVE WILL STILL BE IN ITS INFANCY ON TUESDAY...BUT
BY TUE EVENING A STOUT LLJ AND MOIST AXIS SHOULD REMEDY THE
SITUATION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SEE ISOLATED TSTRMS. BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW`S
TRACK WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR OUR SERN COUNTIES.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...A MINOR TROUGH FARTHER NORTH WILL HAVE
PHASED WITH THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE A MOSTLY NEBULOUS
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MIDDAY BEFORE BACKDOORING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WED NIGHT AND WASHING OUT.
A DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME MORE DEFINED IN OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SERVING TO KEEP OUR SWRN
COUNTIES DRY. IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES LAST THURSDAY
WHEN SCATTERED TSTRMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE MOISTURE DEFICITS WERE LOWER. NOT CONVINCED WE`LL SEE
THE LARGE COVERAGE OF QPF PROGGED BY THE FREQUENTLY NOISY/SENSITIVE
NAM...ALTHOUGH INCORPORATING A BROADER PERSPECTIVE FROM THE SREF
MEAN DOES WARRANT SOME PRECIP MENTION AS FAR WEST AS I-27 WITH
IMPROVED CHANCES FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENSUES THURSDAY BEFORE BACKING SWLY
BY FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT TROUGH...THE CORE
OF WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO KANSAS BY SAT EVENING LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WX THREAT FOR THAT REGION OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. IN OUR HUMBLE ABODE OF THE PLAINS...A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPILLING EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE TROUGH LOOKS
TO INHIBIT ANY REASONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. KEPT POPS SILENT FOR
NOW ON FRI AND SAT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF PROGS A REGIONALLY ACTIVE
DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS OF TEXAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING
SATURDAY`S TROUGH AND THIS COULD PROVE INTERESTING FOR PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDED IT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AND POOLS
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 85 55 89 55 / 0 10 10 10 10
TULIA 55 86 58 89 58 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 54 86 59 91 60 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 55 84 61 93 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 57 85 61 93 62 / 0 10 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 55 84 60 92 61 / 0 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 55 85 60 94 62 / 0 10 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 60 88 63 93 64 / 0 10 20 20 20
SPUR 57 87 62 93 63 / 0 10 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 60 88 66 94 66 / 0 10 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/93
506
FXUS64 KLUB 131754
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW WINDS
AROUND 14 TO 18 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUES MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING /15-17 KTS/ WILL
DECLINE A BIT BY LATE AFTN /AOA 13 KTS/...WITH FURTHER DECLINATION
AOA SUNSET /AOA 10 KTS/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WAS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...THE CUTOFF
LOW WAS FORCED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAS PROMOTED
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...LEADING TD SRLY WINDS AOA 10-20 MPH. THE GRADIENT WILL ENSUE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...AND THE SFC LOW TRANSLATING TO
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE WSW
WITH SPEEDS OF AOA 15 MPH ANTICIPATED. THESE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UA
RIDGE WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S /3-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST GIVEN THE ABOVE NORM TEMPS...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND RHS FALLING TO AOA 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO RELAX A BIT BY PEAK HEATING...SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWING FOR WIND
SPEEDS TO DECLINE A LITTLE /10-15 MPH/.
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX BUT STILL EXPECT
SSW WINDS TO BE AROUND 10 MPH AND THUS RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT /50S/. DESPITE AN UA RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SWRN LOCALES LATE
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY COMMENCING TO SHIFT NE
TOWARDS THE SUN COUNTRY AND TRANS-PECOS AREAS. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL
AID TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CWA...THUS DEWPOINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN LOCALES.
LONG TERM...
STILL ON TRACK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MEXICO OPENS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PRECIP FOR
WEDNESDAY LOOKING MORE IFFY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR ABILITY TO
CONVECT WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WRN OKLAHOMA. DESPITE
UNCERTAINTIES COULD STILL SEE THE NERN PART OF THE FCST SEEING
SOME CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE A SLOSHING DRYLINE PATTERN AND
A CONVECIVE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED. AS A
RESULT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MAIN
FEATURE OF THIS PATTERN IS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO KEEPING POPS LOW...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS MOVE UP PER MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 51 86 55 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
TULIA 85 54 86 58 89 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 85 56 87 59 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 85 56 86 61 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 86 58 86 62 90 / 0 0 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 84 55 84 60 91 / 0 0 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 86 56 86 60 92 / 0 0 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 91 59 90 63 89 / 0 0 10 20 20
SPUR 88 58 87 62 90 / 0 0 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 92 58 89 66 90 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
220
FXUS64 KLUB 131125
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING /15-17 KTS/ WILL
DECLINE A BIT BY LATE AFTN /AOA 13 KTS/...WITH FURTHER DECLINATION
AOA SUNSET /AOA 10 KTS/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WAS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...THE CUTOFF
LOW WAS FORCED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAS PROMOTED
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...LEADING TD SRLY WINDS AOA 10-20 MPH. THE GRADIENT WILL ENSUE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...AND THE SFC LOW TRANSLATING TO
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE WSW
WITH SPEEDS OF AOA 15 MPH ANTICIPATED. THESE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UA
RIDGE WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S /3-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST GIVEN THE ABOVE NORM TEMPS...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND RHS FALLING TO AOA 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO RELAX A BIT BY PEAK HEATING...SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWING FOR WIND
SPEEDS TO DECLINE A LITTLE /10-15 MPH/.
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX BUT STILL EXPECT
SSW WINDS TO BE AROUND 10 MPH AND THUS RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT /50S/. DESPITE AN UA RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SWRN LOCALES LATE
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY COMMENCING TO SHIFT NE
TOWARDS THE SUN COUNTRY AND TRANS-PECOS AREAS. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL
AID TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CWA...THUS DEWPOINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN LOCALES.
LONG TERM...
STILL ON TRACK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MEXICO OPENS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PRECIP FOR
WEDNESDAY LOOKING MORE IFFY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR ABILITY TO
CONVECT WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WRN OKLAHOMA. DESPITE
UNCERTAINTIES COULD STILL SEE THE NERN PART OF THE FCST SEEING
SOME CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE A SLOSHING DRYLINE PATTERN AND
A CONVECIVE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED. AS A
RESULT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MAIN
FEATURE OF THIS PATTERN IS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO KEEPING POPS LOW...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS MOVE UP PER MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 51 86 55 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
TULIA 85 54 86 58 89 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 85 56 87 59 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 85 56 86 61 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 86 58 86 62 90 / 0 0 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 84 55 84 60 91 / 0 0 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 86 56 86 60 92 / 0 0 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 91 59 90 63 89 / 0 0 10 20 20
SPUR 88 58 87 62 90 / 0 0 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 92 58 89 66 90 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
949
FXUS64 KLUB 130749
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
249 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WAS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...THE CUTOFF
LOW WAS FORCED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAS PROMOTED
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...LEADING TD SRLY WINDS AOA 10-20 MPH. THE GRADIENT WILL ENSUE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...AND THE SFC LOW TRANSLATING TO
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE WSW
WITH SPEEDS OF AOA 15 MPH ANTICIPATED. THESE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UA
RIDGE WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S /3-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST GIVEN THE ABOVE NORM TEMPS...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND RHS FALLING TO AOA 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO RELAX A BIT BY PEAK HEATING...SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWING FOR WIND
SPEEDS TO DECLINE A LITTLE /10-15 MPH/.
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX BUT STILL EXPECT
SSW WINDS TO BE AROUND 10 MPH AND THUS RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT /50S/. DESPITE AN UA RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SWRN LOCALES LATE
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY COMMENCING TO SHIFT NE
TOWARDS THE SUN COUNTRY AND TRANS-PECOS AREAS. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL
AID TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CWA...THUS DEWPOINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM...
STILL ON TRACK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MEXICO OPENS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PRECIP FOR
WEDNESDAY LOOKING MORE IFFY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR ABILITY TO
CONVECT WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WRN OKLAHOMA. DESPITE
UNCERTAINTIES COULD STILL SEE THE NERN PART OF THE FCST SEEING
SOME CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE A SLOSHING DRYLINE PATTERN AND
A CONVECIVE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED. AS A
RESULT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MAIN
FEATURE OF THIS PATTERN IS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO KEEPING POPS LOW...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS MOVE UP PER MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 51 86 55 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
TULIA 85 54 86 58 89 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 85 56 87 59 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 85 56 86 61 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 86 58 86 61 90 / 0 0 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 84 55 84 60 91 / 0 0 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 86 56 86 60 92 / 0 0 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 91 59 90 63 89 / 0 0 10 20 20
SPUR 88 58 87 62 90 / 0 0 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 92 58 89 66 90 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
634
FXUS64 KLUB 130453
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. MILDLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH BASED CU FIELD WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. WE ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PLACES WEST TEXAS IN A
RATHER UNFAVORABLE POSITION WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. A
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL
PROVIDE SOME WEAK BUT SHALLOW FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. DEW POINTS
WERE STARTING OUT LOWER TODAY ALTHOUGH WERE NOT MIXING OUT AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER LEADING TO A WEAK
CAP IN PLACE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THE CU FIELD IS
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE HIGHER CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
AT ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP HIGHER
THAN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS STAYING BREEZY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
INTO THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. JDV
LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT FROM NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINING DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER OUT EAST
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...BUT
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE IMPACT HOW FAR WEST
STORMS DEVELOP. A 30-40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO USHER IN
SOME HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND PRODUCE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
TO FOSTER UPDRAFT GROWTH. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A STRENGTHENING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL MAKE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE STALLING...KEEPING WINDS AHEAD OF IT BACKED AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. DRYLINE LOOKS TO
ONCE AGAIN SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT WILL PRECLUDE
INSERTING POPS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE...LIKELY PUTTING A CAP ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BEFORE
UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MID WEEK WITH LOW TO MID 90S TAKING SHAPE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WARM AIR FILTERS IN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 47 86 51 84 55 / 10 0 0 10 10
TULIA 50 88 54 85 56 / 10 0 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 52 88 56 85 58 / 10 0 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 51 86 56 84 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 55 87 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 50 84 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 50 87 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 56 92 59 87 61 / 10 0 0 10 20
SPUR 53 89 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 10 20
ASPERMONT 56 92 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
726
FXUS64 KLUB 122350
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. THERE IS A 10 PCT RISK OF A
VIRGA SHOWER WITHIN THE VICINITY OF KLBB/KCDS THROUGH SUNSET.
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF ANY VIRGA SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH BASED CU FIELD WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. WE ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PLACES WEST TEXAS IN A
RATHER UNFAVORABLE POSITION WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. A
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL
PROVIDE SOME WEAK BUT SHALLOW FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. DEW POINTS
WERE STARTING OUT LOWER TODAY ALTHOUGH WERE NOT MIXING OUT AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER LEADING TO A WEAK
CAP IN PLACE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THE CU FIELD IS
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE HIGHER CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
AT ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP HIGHER
THAN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS STAYING BREEZY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
INTO THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. JDV
LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT FROM NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINING DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER OUT EAST
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...BUT
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE IMPACT HOW FAR WEST
STORMS DEVELOP. A 30-40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO USHER IN
SOME HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND PRODUCE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
TO FOSTER UPDRAFT GROWTH. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A STRENGTHENING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL MAKE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE STALLING...KEEPING WINDS AHEAD OF IT BACKED AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. DRYLINE LOOKS TO
ONCE AGAIN SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT WILL PRECLUDE
INSERTING POPS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE...LIKELY PUTTING A CAP ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BEFORE
UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MID WEEK WITH LOW TO MID 90S TAKING SHAPE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WARM AIR FILTERS IN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 47 86 51 84 55 / 10 0 0 10 10
TULIA 50 88 54 85 56 / 10 0 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 52 88 56 85 58 / 10 0 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 51 86 56 84 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 55 87 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 50 84 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 50 87 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 56 92 59 87 61 / 10 0 0 10 20
SPUR 53 89 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 10 20
ASPERMONT 56 92 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
418
FXUS64 KLUB 122019
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH BASED CU FIELD WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. WE ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PLACES WEST TEXAS IN A
RATHER UNFAVORABLE POSITION WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. A
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL
PROVIDE SOME WEAK BUT SHALLOW FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. DEW POINTS
WERE STARTING OUT LOWER TODAY ALTHOUGH WERE NOT MIXING OUT AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER LEADING TO A WEAK
CAP IN PLACE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THE CU FIELD IS
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE HIGHER CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
AT ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP HIGHER
THAN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS STAYING BREEZY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
INTO THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT FROM NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINING DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER OUT EAST
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...BUT
EXACT POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE IMPACT HOW FAR WEST
STORMS DEVELOP. A 30-40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO USHER IN
SOME HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND PRODUCE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
TO FOSTER UPDRAFT GROWTH. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A STRENGTHENING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL MAKE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE STALLING...KEEPING WINDS AHEAD OF IT BACKED AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. DRYLINE LOOKS TO
ONCE AGAIN SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT WILL PRECLUDE
INSERTING POPS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE...LIKELY PUTTING A CAP ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BEFORE
UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MID WEEK WITH LOW TO MID 90S TAKING SHAPE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WARM AIR FILTERS IN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 47 86 51 84 55 / 10 0 0 10 10
TULIA 50 88 54 85 56 / 10 0 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 52 88 56 85 58 / 10 0 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 51 86 56 84 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 55 87 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 50 84 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 50 87 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 56 92 59 87 61 / 10 0 0 10 20
SPUR 53 89 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 10 20
ASPERMONT 56 92 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/31
971
FXUS64 KLUB 121735
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.AVIATION...
HERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING KCDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF A RATHER
BROAD UA TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS...AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE PERSISTENT
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS WESTERN OLD MEXICO. AS SUCH...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNW FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DISPLAYED THE CUTOFF LOW STREAMING SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THUS HAVING NO EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
PLAINS SENSIBLE WEATHER. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT NE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING IS COURTESY OF AN UA RIDGE NE OF THE REGION. THIS SAID
RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING...AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW BY MID-MORNING THANKS
TO A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH BY
THIS AFTN. AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUGGEST A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S.
THE NAM...SREF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC DISPLAY LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS ACROSS THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
AND SFC CONVERGENCE/DIFFUSED DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE. CONCURRENTLY...A
RELATIVELY WEAK 250 MB JET MAX /40-60 KTS/ WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHAT COULD MITIGATE
PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THE UA RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE NOSING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS /PWATS LESS THAN 0.80 INCHES/ WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING /MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS/. THIS INVERTED-V PROFILE FAVORS
ANOTHER ROUND OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A SLIM CHANCE FOR A
TRACE OF RAINFALL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE
NEAREST TO THE SFC TROUGH. COULD SEE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS BENEATH
THE VIRGA SHOWERS. WILL RAISE POPS TO 10 PERCENT AND INSERT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE MENTION ACROSS THE SAID AREA. TONIGHT...ANY
LINGERING VIRGA SHOWERS WILL DEMISE BUT SLIGHTLY BREEZY SSW WINDS
WILL ENSUE...GIVEN THE ENDURING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /50S/.
LONG TERM...
THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL CHANCE COMES WITH THE EJECTION OF THE NRN MEXICO LOW NEWD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE SLOW TO RETURN TO
FCST WITH BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE COMING TUESDAY
EVENING FAVORING ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WEDNESDAYS CHANCE
COMES DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS PROGGED TO BACK AND HOLDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THAT AREA. GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING
PRECIP WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEYOND THIS PRECIP CHANCES RATHER
UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANG ACROSS THE
AREA BUT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD LIKELY TO HELP STRENGTHEN
THE CAP. SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THEN HIGHS
WARMING TOWARD THE 90S LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 85 51 84 55 / 10 0 0 10 10
TULIA 53 87 55 85 56 / 10 0 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 54 87 56 85 58 / 10 0 0 10 20
LEVELLAND 55 85 56 84 57 / 0 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 56 86 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 55 83 55 84 57 / 0 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 55 86 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 57 91 59 87 61 / 10 0 0 10 20
SPUR 56 88 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 10 20
ASPERMONT 57 89 58 87 61 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
633
FXUS64 KLUB 121121
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT VIRGA SHOWERS OR
RATHER LIGHT SHRA MORE SO NEAR KCDS...BUT GIVEN REMOTE CHANCES OF
THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE ELECTED TO FORGO A PRECIP MENTION ATTM. SFC
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN /13-15 KTS/ AND STAY UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF A RATHER
BROAD UA TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS...AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE PERSISTENT
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS WESTERN OLD MEXICO. AS SUCH...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNW FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DISPLAYED THE CUTOFF LOW STREAMING SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THUS HAVING NO EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
PLAINS SENSIBLE WEATHER. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT NE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING IS COURTESY OF AN UA RIDGE NE OF THE REGION. THIS SAID
RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING...AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW BY MID-MORNING THANKS
TO A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH BY
THIS AFTN. AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUGGEST A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S.
THE NAM...SREF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC DISPLAY LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS ACROSS THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
AND SFC CONVERGENCE/DIFFUSED DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE. CONCURRENTLY...A
RELATIVELY WEAK 250 MB JET MAX /40-60 KTS/ WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHAT COULD MITIGATE
PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THE UA RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE NOSING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS /PWATS LESS THAN 0.80 INCHES/ WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING /MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS/. THIS INVERTED-V PROFILE FAVORS
ANOTHER ROUND OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A SLIM CHANCE FOR A
TRACE OF RAINFALL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE
NEAREST TO THE SFC TROUGH. COULD SEE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS BENEATH
THE VIRGA SHOWERS. WILL RAISE POPS TO 10 PERCENT AND INSERT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE MENTION ACROSS THE SAID AREA. TONIGHT...ANY
LINGERING VIRGA SHOWERS WILL DEMISE BUT SLIGHTLY BREEZY SSW WINDS
WILL ENSUE...GIVEN THE ENDURING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /50S/.
LONG TERM...
THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL CHANCE COMES WITH THE EJECTION OF THE NRN MEXICO LOW NEWD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE SLOW TO RETURN TO
FCST WITH BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE COMING TUESDAY
EVENING FAVORING ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WEDNESDAYS CHANCE
COMES DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS PROGGED TO BACK AND HOLDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THAT AREA. GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING
PRECIP WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEYOND THIS PRECIP CHANCES RATHER
UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANG ACROSS THE
AREA BUT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD LIKELY TO HELP STRENGTHEN
THE CAP. SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THEN HIGHS
WARMING TOWARD THE 90S LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 79 50 85 51 84 / 10 10 0 0 10
TULIA 80 53 87 55 85 / 10 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 79 54 87 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 79 55 85 56 84 / 10 10 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 81 55 86 58 85 / 10 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 80 55 83 55 84 / 10 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 80 55 86 56 85 / 10 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 84 57 91 59 87 / 10 10 0 0 10
SPUR 82 56 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 84 57 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
801
FXUS64 KLUB 120732
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
232 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF A RATHER
BROAD UA TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS...AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE PERSISTENT
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS WESTERN OLD MEXICO. AS SUCH...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNW FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DISPLAYED THE CUTOFF LOW STREAMING SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THUS HAVING NO EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
PLAINS SENSIBLE WEATHER. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT NE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING IS COURTESY OF AN UA RIDGE NE OF THE REGION. THIS SAID
RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING...AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW BY MID-MORNING THANKS
TO A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH BY
THIS AFTN. AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUGGEST A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S.
THE NAM...SREF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC DISPLAY LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS ACROSS THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
AND SFC CONVERGENCE/DIFFUSED DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE. CONCURRENTLY...A
RELATIVELY WEAK 250 MB JET MAX /40-60 KTS/ WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHAT COULD MITIGATE
PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THE UA RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE NOSING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS /PWATS LESS THAN 0.80 INCHES/ WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING /MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS/. THIS INVERTED-V PROFILE FAVORS
ANOTHER ROUND OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A SLIM CHANCE FOR A
TRACE OF RAINFALL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE
NEAREST TO THE SFC TROUGH. COULD SEE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS BENEATH
THE VIRGA SHOWERS. WILL RAISE POPS TO 10 PERCENT AND INSERT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE MENTION ACROSS THE SAID AREA. TONIGHT...ANY
LINGERING VIRGA SHOWERS WILL DEMISE BUT SLIGHTLY BREEZY SSW WINDS
WILL ENSUE...GIVEN THE ENDURING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /50S/.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL CHANCE COMES WITH THE EJECTION OF THE NRN MEXICO LOW NEWD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE SLOW TO RETURN TO
FCST WITH BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE COMING TUESDAY
EVENING FAVORING ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WEDNESDAYS CHANCE
COMES DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS PROGGED TO BACK AND HOLDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THAT AREA. GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING
PRECIP WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEYOND THIS PRECIP CHANCES RATHER
UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANG ACROSS THE
AREA BUT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD LIKELY TO HELP STRENGTHEN
THE CAP. SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THEN HIGHS
WARMING TOWARD THE 90S LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 79 50 85 51 84 / 10 10 0 0 10
TULIA 80 53 87 55 85 / 10 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 79 54 87 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 79 55 85 56 84 / 10 10 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 81 56 86 58 85 / 10 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 80 55 83 55 84 / 10 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 80 55 86 56 85 / 10 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 84 57 91 59 87 / 10 10 0 0 10
SPUR 82 56 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 84 57 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
638
FXUS64 KLUB 120451
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS
NEAR KCDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
FOR MAY IN WEST TEXAS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ADDITIONAL VIRGA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LIFT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS DEW
POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
THERE WILL STILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE LIFT TO WORK WITH. THE
STRONGER CORES MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION BUT MOST WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A TRACE
OF RAINFALL.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT FOG ON THE CAPROCK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE FROM FRIDAYS RAIN BUT
CHANCES ARE NOT LIKELY. EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE OF VIRGA
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE...Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA
INHIBITING LARGE SCALE LIFT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. JDV
LONG TERM...
GFS/ECMWF STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING UPPER LOW ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY BEFORE PHASING INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY LATE
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN AHEAD OF UPPER LOW TO
MANDATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WHATEVER LIFT THAT
OCCURS AHEAD OF AND CONCURRENT WITH UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON TO THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL THUS HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS THERE AS
WELL. THURSDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
BUT THEN IT APPEARS A RETURN TO A SLOSHING DRYLINE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN
THE DETAILS...BUT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME
PERIODIC ENERGY MOVING OUT OF WRN US TROUGH...CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW OPPORTUNITES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THAT
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER FEEL FOR HOW THAT TIME
PERIOD WILL PLAY OUT.
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD START TO
SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATING AS WELL AND HOLD IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 72 45 79 49 84 / 10 10 10 10 0
TULIA 74 45 80 53 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 74 48 79 54 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 75 49 79 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 75 50 81 55 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 74 51 78 53 83 / 10 10 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 76 51 80 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 78 50 83 57 90 / 10 10 10 10 0
SPUR 78 51 81 57 88 / 10 10 0 10 0
ASPERMONT 80 51 82 57 88 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
204
FXUS64 KLUB 112336
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA WILL AFFECT BOTH SITES
THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOUR WITH
LIGHT WINDS BY WEST TEXAS STANDARDS. SOME SLIGHT RISK OF MORNING
HAZE/MIST EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAF ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ADDITIONAL VIRGA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LIFT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS DEW
POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
THERE WILL STILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE LIFT TO WORK WITH. THE
STRONGER CORES MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION BUT MOST WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A TRACE
OF RAINFALL.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT FOG ON THE CAPROCK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE FROM FRIDAYS RAIN BUT
CHANCES ARE NOT LIKELY. EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE OF VIRGA
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE...Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA
INHIBITING LARGE SCALE LIFT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. JDV
LONG TERM...
GFS/ECMWF STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING UPPER LOW ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY BEFORE PHASING INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY LATE
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN AHEAD OF UPPER LOW TO
MANDATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WHATEVER LIFT THAT
OCCURS AHEAD OF AND CONCURRENT WITH UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON TO THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL THUS HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS THERE AS
WELL. THURSDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
BUT THEN IT APPEARS A RETURN TO A SLOSHING DRYLINE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN
THE DETAILS...BUT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME
PERIODIC ENERGY MOVING OUT OF WRN US TROUGH...CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW OPPORTUNITES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THAT
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER FEEL FOR HOW THAT TIME
PERIOD WILL PLAY OUT.
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD START TO
SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATING AS WELL AND HOLD IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 72 45 79 49 84 / 10 10 10 10 0
TULIA 74 45 80 53 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 74 48 79 54 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 75 49 79 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 75 50 81 55 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 74 51 78 53 83 / 10 10 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 76 51 80 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 78 50 83 57 90 / 10 10 10 10 0
SPUR 78 51 81 57 88 / 10 10 0 10 0
ASPERMONT 80 51 82 57 88 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
503
FXUS64 KLUB 112010
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...
ADDITIONAL VIRGA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LIFT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS DEW
POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
THERE WILL STILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE LIFT TO WORK WITH. THE
STRONGER CORES MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION BUT MOST WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A TRACE
OF RAINFALL.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT FOG ON THE CAPROCK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE FROM FRIDAYS RAIN BUT
CHANCES ARE NOT LIKELY. EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE OF VIRGA
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE...Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA
INHIBITING LARGE SCALE LIFT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
GFS/ECMWF STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING UPPER LOW ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY BEFORE PHASING INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY LATE
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN AHEAD OF UPPER LOW TO
MANDATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WHATEVER LIFT THAT
OCCURS AHEAD OF AND CONCURRENT WITH UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON TO THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL THUS HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS THERE AS
WELL. THURSDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
BUT THEN IT APPEARS A RETURN TO A SLOSHING DRYLINE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN
THE DETAILS...BUT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME
PERIODIC ENERGY MOVING OUT OF WRN US TROUGH...CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW OPPORTUNITES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THAT
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER FEEL FOR HOW THAT TIME
PERIOD WILL PLAY OUT.
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD START TO
SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATING AS WELL AND HOLD IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 45 79 49 84 52 / 10 10 10 0 0
TULIA 45 80 53 86 55 / 10 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 48 79 54 87 56 / 10 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 49 79 55 85 56 / 10 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 50 81 55 86 58 / 10 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 51 78 53 83 55 / 10 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 51 80 55 85 56 / 10 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 50 83 57 90 60 / 10 10 10 0 0
SPUR 51 81 57 88 58 / 10 0 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 51 82 57 88 60 / 10 0 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/13
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