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881
FXUS64 KLUB 221021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DYING A SLOW DEATH NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS
MORNING. A VERY WEAK OUTFLOW HAS EDGED THROUGH KLBB WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MODEST SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/99
021
FXUS64 KLUB 220854
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01
769
FXUS64 KLUB 220450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER 20Z
TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO READJUST POPS AND TWEAK SEVERAL OTHER SHORT TERM
GRIDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A
DECENT LINE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAS CONGEALED FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE WAS GENERALLY
EDGING EASTWARD...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CLOVIS AND BOOTLEG. THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
20-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ASIDE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE OUTFLOW...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IS LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED AND DEVELOP IS IN QUESTION.
HENCE...WE HAVE REORIENTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE REMOVING THE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. IF STORMS CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WE DID TWEAK THE
DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16
577
FXUS64 KLUB 220226 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
926 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO READJUST POPS AND TWEAK SEVERAL OTHER SHORT TERM
GRIDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A
DECENT LINE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAS CONGEALED FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE WAS GENERALLY
EDGING EASTWARD...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CLOVIS AND BOOTLEG. THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
20-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ASIDE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE OUTFLOW...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IS LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED AND DEVELOP IS IN QUESTION.
HENCE...WE HAVE REORIENTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE REMOVING THE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. IF STORMS CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WE DID TWEAK THE
DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER 20Z TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/23
005
FXUS64 KLUB 212307
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
607 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER 20Z TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16
803
FXUS64 KLUB 212041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  72  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/06
955
FXUS64 KLUB 211733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER
LATER THIS EVENING...WELL TO THE WEST OF KCDS AND KLBB...WE WILL
SEE SOME CU DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES TODAY UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIONED WELL INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL BE CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRY TO INITIATE WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ALTHOUGH THE
EXPANDING RIDGE WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A WEAK AXIS OF HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES WILL BE WITHIN THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE THETA-E
VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS POTENT THAN OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL STILL GENERATE ROBUST SURFACE INSTABILITIES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALMOST NO FLOW
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE A ROGUE WIND GUST GIVEN NEARLY 40 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. MUCH DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL WEST OF
THE REGION IN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EXPANDING JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A
WAVE DIPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE MINOR
IMPACT THIS FAR WEST BENEATH THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE...WITH AT MOST A
MINOR LIGHT WIND SHIFT PERHAPS SETTLING SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY
MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AND ELONGATE AS A
TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM ROTATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THE EARLY WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHOVE A MORE VALID WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES INTO
CLASSIC FOUR-CORNERS PATTERN. SO...MIGHT EXPECT THIS WOULD PRODUCE
VALID COOLING AND PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SHOWER PROSPECTS
DAYS 8 AND BEYOND. UNTIL THEN...BULK OF EVIDENCE POINTS TOWARDS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. SMALL CHANCE
THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...
MAINLY LATE IN THE WEEK. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY DRY EARLY TO MID WEEK
AT LEAST...THOUGH SOLUTIONS AGREE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL IMPROVE
EASTERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH COULD THEN
TRANSLATE INTO ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  98  68  97  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         70  99  69  99  69 /  10   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  98  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     72 100  71  99  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  99  72  99  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   73  99  70  99  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73 100  71  99  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 103  74 103  76 /  10   0   0   0  10
SPUR          74 101  72 102  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 102  77 103  77 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/99/55
992
FXUS64 KLUB 211024
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANY THUNDER THAT DEVELOPS IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...WELL WEST OF
EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES TODAY UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIONED WELL INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL BE CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRY TO INITIATE WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ALTHOUGH THE
EXPANDING RIDGE WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A WEAK AXIS OF HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES WILL BE WITHIN THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE THETA-E
VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS POTENT THAN OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL STILL GENERATE ROBUST SURFACE INSTABILITIES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALMOST NO FLOW
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE A ROGUE WIND GUST GIVEN NEARLY 40 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. MUCH DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL WEST OF
THE REGION IN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EXPANDING JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A
WAVE DIPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE MINOR
IMPACT THIS FAR WEST BENEATH THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE...WITH AT MOST A
MINOR LIGHT WIND SHIFT PERHAPS SETTLING SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY
MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AND ELONGATE AS A
TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM ROTATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THE EARLY WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHOVE A MORE VALID WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES INTO
CLASSIC FOUR-CORNERS PATTERN. SO...MIGHT EXPECT THIS WOULD PRODUCE
VALID COOLING AND PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SHOWER PROSPECTS
DAYS 8 AND BEYOND. UNTIL THEN...BULK OF EVIDENCE POINTS TOWARDS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. SMALL CHANCE
THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...
MAINLY LATE IN THE WEEK. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY DRY EARLY TO MID WEEK
AT LEAST...THOUGH SOLUTIONS AGREE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL IMPROVE
EASTERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH COULD THEN
TRANSLATE INTO ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  69  98  68  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  70  99  69  99 /  10  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  71  98  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     98  72 100  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       98  73  99  72  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   98  73  99  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    98  73 100  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  72 103  74 103 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          98  74 101  72 102 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  75 102  77 103 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99
778
FXUS64 KLUB 210733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
233 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES TODAY UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIONED WELL INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL BE CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRY TO INITIATE WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ALTHOUGH THE
EXPANDING RIDGE WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A WEAK AXIS OF HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES WILL BE WITHIN THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE THETA-E
VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS POTENT THAN OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL STILL GENERATE ROBUST SURFACE INSTABILITIES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALMOST NO FLOW
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE A ROGUE WIND GUST GIVEN NEARLY 40 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. MUCH DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL WEST OF
THE REGION IN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EXPANDING JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A
WAVE DIPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE MINOR
IMPACT THIS FAR WEST BENEATH THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE...WITH AT MOST A
MINOR LIGHT WIND SHIFT PERHAPS SETTLING SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY
MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AND ELONGATE AS A
TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM ROTATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THE EARLY WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHOVE A MORE VALID WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES INTO
CLASSIC FOUR-CORNERS PATTERN. SO...MIGHT EXPECT THIS WOULD PRODUCE
VALID COOLING AND PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SHOWER PROSPECTS
DAYS 8 AND BEYOND. UNTIL THEN...BULK OF EVIDENCE POINTS TOWARDS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. SMALL CHANCE
THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...
MAINLY LATE IN THE WEEK. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY DRY EARLY TO MID WEEK
AT LEAST...THOUGH SOLUTIONS AGREE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL IMPROVE
EASTERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH COULD THEN
TRANSLATE INTO ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  69  98  68  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  70  99  69  99 /  10  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  71  98  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     98  72 100  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       98  73 100  72  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   98  73  99  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    98  73 100  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  72 103  74 103 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          98  74 101  72 102 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  75 102  77 103 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
592
FXUS64 KLUB 210444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ANY -TSRA THAT DEVELOP IN VICNITY OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE LATE
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST-NW OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE PROPAGATION
TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BRIEFLY
ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THEY HAVE HAD
LITTLE SUCCESS IN SUSTAINING THEMSELVES. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...COUPLED WITH A LACK OF LARGER
SCALE FORCING...FAVOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THE REMAINED OF TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT AND
WIND GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO AGREE WITH BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO 595 DM TONIGHT
WITH AXIS FROM SRN NM INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE.
WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SQUASH ALL BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THINK
EVEN THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT MAY DEVELOP ALONG DECENT
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN NM INTO THE WRN PANHANDLE...WHERE SPC
MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING 3000+ J/KG CAPE AT 3 PM. VERY WEAK WIND
SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZATION AND MOVEMENT OF ANY UPDRAFTS THAT
CAN BREAK THROUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON BOTH KAMA AND KMAF
SOUNDINGS AROUND 10K FEET. SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY AGAIN FEED A FEW
CELLS WITH 30 KNOTS INFLOW...BUT THE GENERAL TREND THIS EVENING IS
FOR FEWER STORMS AND QUICKER DEMISE IN INCREASINGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. LOW CLOUDS EVEN LESS LIKELY TONIGHT. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...POPS ALTHOUGH NON ZERO...WILL DROP BELOW MENTION EVEN
OUT WEST. LOWS SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 66-74 RANGE. HIGHS CREEP UP
EVER SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY...FROM 95 SRN PANHANDLE TO 102 ACROSS THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A /COLD/
FRONT WILL PUSH TO AT LEAST THE EDGE OF THE FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL HELP SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
NM. SOME CONVECTION MAY SPILL OVER INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES...HOWEVER THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE UNCERTAINTY DO NOT
WARRANT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE
FORECASTED FRONT. OF INTEREST LATER IN THE WEEK IS A LOW OVER WA
STATE THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE CA/US BORDER AND
WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS RESIDED OVER US TO THE WEST
PLACING US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BRING DOWN A
FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP COOL US OFF AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS NEAR...AT...OR ABOVE 100 AS WELL AS GIVE US A SHOT AT
CONVECTION. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND BETWEEN RUNS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY DECENT GIVEN THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME
THIS IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL BE KEPT IN MIND FOR
THE FUTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  96  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  69  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     70  97  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  98  72  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   71  97  70  96  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  98  71  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  99  73 102  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
SPUR          72  98  71  99  71 /   0  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     74 102  74 101  74 /   0  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/99/99
499
FXUS64 KLUB 210248 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
948 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE PROPAGATION
TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BRIEFLY
ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THEY HAVE HAD
LITTLE SUCCESS IN SUSTAINING THEMSELVES. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...COUPLED WITH A LACK OF LARGER
SCALE FORCING...FAVOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THE REMAINED OF TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT AND
WIND GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO AGREE WITH BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO 595 DM TONIGHT
WITH AXIS FROM SRN NM INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE.
WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SQUASH ALL BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THINK
EVEN THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT MAY DEVELOP ALONG DECENT
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN NM INTO THE WRN PANHANDLE...WHERE SPC
MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING 3000+ J/KG CAPE AT 3 PM. VERY WEAK WIND
SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZATION AND MOVEMENT OF ANY UPDRAFTS THAT
CAN BREAK THROUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON BOTH KAMA AND KMAF
SOUNDINGS AROUND 10K FEET. SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY AGAIN FEED A FEW
CELLS WITH 30 KNOTS INFLOW...BUT THE GENERAL TREND THIS EVENING IS
FOR FEWER STORMS AND QUICKER DEMISE IN INCREASINGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. LOW CLOUDS EVEN LESS LIKELY TONIGHT. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...POPS ALTHOUGH NON ZERO...WILL DROP BELOW MENTION EVEN
OUT WEST. LOWS SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 66-74 RANGE. HIGHS CREEP UP
EVER SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY...FROM 95 SRN PANHANDLE TO 102 ACROSS THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A /COLD/
FRONT WILL PUSH TO AT LEAST THE EDGE OF THE FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL HELP SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
NM. SOME CONVECTION MAY SPILL OVER INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES...HOWEVER THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE UNCERTAINTY DO NOT
WARRANT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE
FORECASTED FRONT. OF INTEREST LATER IN THE WEEK IS A LOW OVER WA
STATE THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE CA/US BORDER AND
WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS RESIDED OVER US TO THE WEST
PLACING US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BRING DOWN A
FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP COOL US OFF AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS NEAR...AT...OR ABOVE 100 AS WELL AS GIVE US A SHOT AT
CONVECTION. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND BETWEEN RUNS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY DECENT GIVEN THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME
THIS IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL BE KEPT IN MIND FOR
THE FUTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  96  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  69  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     70  97  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  97  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   71  97  70  96  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  98  71  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  99  73 102  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
SPUR          72  98  71  99  71 /   0  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     74 102  74 101  74 /   0  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
903
FXUS64 KLUB 202354
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
654 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO AGREE WITH BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO 595 DM TONIGHT
WITH AXIS FROM SRN NM INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE.
WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SQUASH ALL BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THINK
EVEN THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT MAY DEVELOP ALONG DECENT
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN NM INTO THE WRN PANHANDLE...WHERE SPC
MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING 3000+ J/KG CAPE AT 3 PM. VERY WEAK WIND
SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZATION AND MOVEMENT OF ANY UPDRAFTS THAT
CAN BREAK THROUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON BOTH KAMA AND KMAF
SOUNDINGS AROUND 10K FEET. SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY AGAIN FEED A FEW
CELLS WITH 30 KNOTS INFLOW...BUT THE GENERAL TREND THIS EVENING IS
FOR FEWER STORMS AND QUICKER DEMISE IN INCREASINGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. LOW CLOUDS EVEN LESS LIKELY TONIGHT. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...POPS ALTHOUGH NON ZERO...WILL DROP BELOW MENTION EVEN
OUT WEST. LOWS SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 66-74 RANGE. HIGHS CREEP UP
EVER SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY...FROM 95 SRN PANHANDLE TO 102 ACROSS THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A /COLD/
FRONT WILL PUSH TO AT LEAST THE EDGE OF THE FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL HELP SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
NM. SOME CONVECTION MAY SPILL OVER INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES...HOWEVER THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE UNCERTAINTY DO NOT
WARRANT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE
FORECASTED FRONT. OF INTEREST LATER IN THE WEEK IS A LOW OVER WA
STATE THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE CA/US BORDER AND
WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS RESIDED OVER US TO THE WEST
PLACING US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BRING DOWN A
FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP COOL US OFF AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS NEAR...AT...OR ABOVE 100 AS WELL AS GIVE US A SHOT AT
CONVECTION. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND BETWEEN RUNS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY DECENT GIVEN THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME
THIS IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL BE KEPT IN MIND FOR
THE FUTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  96  67  95  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  69  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     70  97  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  98  72  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   71  97  70  96  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  98  71  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  99  73 102  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
SPUR          72  98  71  99  71 /   0  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     74 102  74 101  74 /   0  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
643
FXUS64 KLUB 202021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO AGREE WITH BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO 595 DM TONIGHT
WITH AXIS FROM SRN NM INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE.
WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SQUASH ALL BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THINK
EVEN THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT MAY DEVELOP ALONG DECENT
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN NM INTO THE WRN PANHANDLE...WHERE SPC
MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING 3000+ J/KG CAPE AT 3 PM. VERY WEAK WIND
SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZATION AND MOVEMENT OF ANY UPDRAFTS THAT
CAN BREAK THROUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON BOTH KAMA AND KMAF
SOUNDINGS AROUND 10K FEET. SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY AGAIN FEED A FEW
CELLS WITH 30 KNOTS INFLOW...BUT THE GENERAL TREND THIS EVENING IS
FOR FEWER STORMS AND QUICKER DEMISE IN INCREASINGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. LOW CLOUDS EVEN LESS LIKELY TONIGHT. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...POPS ALTHOUGH NON ZERO...WILL DROP BELOW MENTION EVEN
OUT WEST. LOWS SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 66-74 RANGE. HIGHS CREEP UP
EVER SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY...FROM 95 SRN PANHANDLE TO 102 ACROSS THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A /COLD/
FRONT WILL PUSH TO AT LEAST THE EDGE OF THE FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL HELP SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
NM. SOME CONVECTION MAY SPILL OVER INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES...HOWEVER THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE UNCERTAINTY DO NOT
WARRANT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE
FORECASTED FRONT. OF INTEREST LATER IN THE WEEK IS A LOW OVER WA
STATE THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE CA/US BORDER AND
WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS RESIDED OVER US TO THE WEST
PLACING US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BRING DOWN A
FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP COOL US OFF AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS NEAR...AT...OR ABOVE 100 AS WELL AS GIVE US A SHOT AT
CONVECTION. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND BETWEEN RUNS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY DECENT GIVEN THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME
THIS IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL BE KEPT IN MIND FOR
THE FUTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  96  67  95  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  69  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     70  97  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  97  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   71  97  70  96  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  98  71  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  99  73 102  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
SPUR          72  98  71  99  71 /   0  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     74 102  74 101  74 /   0  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06/51
799
FXUS64 KLUB 201729
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE EXERTING MORE INFLUENCE. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO FORM...AND WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS TODAY. WE STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTN/EVE ALONG THE NM BORDER IN AXIS
OF HIGHER INSTABILITY...BUT THEY WILL BE FEWER AND LIKELY
DISSIPATE QUICKER LATER TODAY...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
AVIATION DISCUSSION...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS TERMINALS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
FEW LOW CLOUDS AT KCDS MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES BUT NOT AFFECT
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN ITS BURGEONING EXTENSION TODAY AND WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES.
DESPITE THIS EXPANDING RIDGE...CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO LESS COVERAGE THAN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST AS ROBUST AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH HEALTHY INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG. SEVERE CHANCES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME A CONSTANT FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH CENTER JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH NOT EXCEEDINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES...AND
SUPPRESSED THUNDER CHANCES. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON
HANDLING OF A WAVE INTO THE MID-WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
SUBSEQUENT PLAY OF A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF MORE-SO THIS OUTCOME THAN GFS. ONCE AGAIN WE
WILL PLAY THIS AS A 50-50 SPLIT THOUGH LEAVE OUT THUNDER MENTION
AS HEIGHTS LOOK TOO OPPRESSIVE. AN ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK MAY SEND A MORE
ACTIVE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS IT EMERGES AND DEEPENS IN
THE EASTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND. EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
ARE MAINLY DAY EIGHT AND BEYOND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  97  67  98  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  97  69  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  97  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     71  98  70 100  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  98  72 100  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   71  98  70  99  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  99  71 100  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
SPUR          73 100  71 101  71 /   0  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     74 101  74 102  74 /   0  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06
201
FXUS64 KLUB 201126
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES BUT NOT AFFECT
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN ITS BURGEONING EXTENSION TODAY AND WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES.
DESPITE THIS EXPANDING RIDGE...CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO LESS COVERAGE THAN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST AS ROBUST AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH HEALTHY INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG. SEVERE CHANCES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME A CONSTANT FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH CENTER JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH NOT EXCEEDINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES...AND
SUPPRESSED THUNDER CHANCES. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON
HANDLING OF A WAVE INTO THE MID-WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
SUBSEQUENT PLAY OF A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF MORE-SO THIS OUTCOME THAN GFS. ONCE AGAIN WE
WILL PLAY THIS AS A 50-50 SPLIT THOUGH LEAVE OUT THUNDER MENTION
AS HEIGHTS LOOK TOO OPPRESSIVE. AN ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK MAY SEND A MORE
ACTIVE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS IT EMERGES AND DEEPENS IN
THE EASTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND. EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
ARE MAINLY DAY EIGHT AND BEYOND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        95  68  97  67  98 /  10  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  69  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  68  97  69  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  71  98  70 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  72  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  71  98  70  99 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    96  71  99  71 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     95  73 100  73 103 /  10   0  10  10   0
SPUR          96  73 100  71 101 /  10   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT    100  74 101  74 102 /  10   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
565
FXUS64 KLUB 200917
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN ITS BURGEONING EXTENSION TODAY AND WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES.
DESPITE THIS EXPANDING RIDGE...CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO LESS COVERAGE THAN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST AS ROBUST AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH HEALTHY INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG. SEVERE CHANCES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME A CONSTANT FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH CENTER JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH NOT EXCEEDINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES...AND
SUPPRESSED THUNDER CHANCES. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON
HANDLING OF A WAVE INTO THE MID-WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
SUBSEQUENT PLAY OF A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF MORE-SO THIS OUTCOME THAN GFS. ONCE AGAIN WE
WILL PLAY THIS AS A 50-50 SPLIT THOUGH LEAVE OUT THUNDER MENTION
AS HEIGHTS LOOK TOO OPPRESSIVE. AN ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK MAY SEND A MORE
ACTIVE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS IT EMERGES AND DEEPENS IN
THE EASTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND. EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
ARE MAINLY DAY EIGHT AND BEYOND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        95  68  97  67  98 /  10  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  69  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  68  97  69  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  71  98  70 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  72  98  72 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  71  98  70  99 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    96  71  99  71 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     95  73 100  73 103 /  10   0  10  10   0
SPUR          96  73 100  71 101 /  10   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT    100  74 101  74 102 /  10   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
771
FXUS64 KLUB 200445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT -SHRA OR -TSRA MAY AFFECT KLBB THROUGH 07
UTC. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDER OR PRECIP AT
EITHER TERMINAL OVERNIGHT IS VERY LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED
CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO STRATUS ALSO APPEARS VERY LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IN EASTERN NM EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE TX/NM LINE...BUT IT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT HAS DONE SO. GIVEN THAT THIS ACTIVITY
IS TENDING TO GUST OUT AND WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING INHIBITION...WE EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE.
THAT SAID...SOME LINGERING CONVECTION COULD PERSIST FOR SOME TIME
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE MODEST AND MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHEAST NM AND
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE CAN COMPLETE THEIR SOUTHEAST JOURNEY
INTO THE CWA...THOUGH ODDS OF THIS ARE PRETTY LOW. GIVEN THIS WE
HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE...ASIDE FROM A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND...DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. CONVECTION THAT
ORIGINATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THIS AFTERNOON HAS MADE
DECENT PROGRESS EASTWARD...THOUGH IT HAS ALSO SHOWN A RECENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED MORE RECENTLY IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN
NM...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED FROM NORTHEAST
NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE
GENERAL STEERING FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...THOUGH AT A
FAIRLY SLOW PACE AS IS EVIDENT BY THE MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE ROOSEVELT AND LEA COUNTY ACTIVITY. STILL...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE MODESTLY FROM 20 KNOTS
NOW TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY 06Z THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE
SOME OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES COULD EXPERIENCE A
STORM LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN
CONGEAL AND DEVELOP A DECENT COLD POOL. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TWO POSSIBILITIES...FIRST A SMALL CLUSTER MOVING
OUT OF EASTERN NM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SECOND
CLUSTER POTENTIALLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THE DETAILS OF HOW THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PLAY
OUT...BUT THE CURRENT EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE SOLID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THUS...NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ATTM. THE FAIRLY ROBUST
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
THROUGH LATE EVENING WHILE THE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
HIGH PWATS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

AVIATION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME TSRA ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE INCLUDED THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE KLBB TAF BUT KEPT IT OUT OF KCDS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE
THREAT OF LOW STRATUS APPEARS MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LOWERED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTER 12 UTC OR SO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR GENERALLY
WEST OF I-27. WE EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AIDED
BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED TOWARD
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
ROUGHLY PLAINS TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS. FAVORED TIME FRAME WILL BE
FROM 03-09Z. LOWS TONIGHT RATHER MILD FROM 65-71.

DOESN`T APPEAR THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ABOVE NORMAL...FROM 93 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
STILL SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BUT LOWER POPS
AREAWIDE. JAMES

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL THEN
MOVE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE US IN A
FAIRLY BENIGN AND HOT PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE GFS GETS THE FRONT
AS FAR AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE DISSIPATING WHAT IS LEFT OF IT.
THIS WOULD GIVE THE PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...A CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHICH SLOWLY
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE /MILDER/ SIDE AS SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD HELP BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR. THIS PROJECTION
WOULD ALSO GIVE US A CHANCE AT RAIN AREA WIDE OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS. DUE TO MODEL SPREAD AND BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BEING CONSISTENT I
HAVE CONTINUED OUR TREND OF RIDING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. I HAVE
KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AM
STARTING TO SLOWLY LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS WHO HAS CHANGED THE PROJECTION OF THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY WITH EACH RUN.

BY THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BE DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT AS A
LOW SKIRTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CA/TX LINE PUTTING US IN VERY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD PUTTING US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY AND BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS THE FRONT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH. THIS WOULD AGAIN GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  94  70  95  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  96  72  97  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  97  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  95  72  97  73 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  96  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  97  75 100  76 /  10  10   0  10  10
SPUR          68  97  75  99  76 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     71 100  75 100  77 /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
608
FXUS64 KLUB 200339 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1039 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IN EASTERN NM EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE TX/NM LINE...BUT IT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT HAS DONE SO. GIVEN THAT THIS ACTIVITY
IS TENDING TO GUST OUT AND WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING INHIBITION...WE EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE.
THAT SAID...SOME LINGERING CONVECTION COULD PERSIST FOR SOME TIME
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE MODEST AND MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHEAST NM AND
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE CAN COMPLETE THEIR SOUTHEAST JOURNEY
INTO THE CWA...THOUGH ODDS OF THIS ARE PRETTY LOW. GIVEN THIS WE
HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE...ASIDE FROM A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND...DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. CONVECTION THAT
ORIGINATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THIS AFTERNOON HAS MADE
DECENT PROGRESS EASTWARD...THOUGH IT HAS ALSO SHOWN A RECENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED MORE RECENTLY IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN
NM...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED FROM NORTHEAST
NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE
GENERAL STEERING FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...THOUGH AT A
FAIRLY SLOW PACE AS IS EVIDENT BY THE MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE ROOSEVELT AND LEA COUNTY ACTIVITY. STILL...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE MODESTLY FROM 20 KNOTS
NOW TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY 06Z THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE
SOME OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES COULD EXPERIENCE A
STORM LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN
CONGEAL AND DEVELOP A DECENT COLD POOL. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TWO POSSIBILITIES...FIRST A SMALL CLUSTER MOVING
OUT OF EASTERN NM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SECOND
CLUSTER POTENTIALLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THE DETAILS OF HOW THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PLAY
OUT...BUT THE CURRENT EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE SOLID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THUS...NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ATTM. THE FAIRLY ROBUST
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
THROUGH LATE EVENING WHILE THE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
HIGH PWATS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

AVIATION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME TSRA ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE INCLUDED THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE KLBB TAF BUT KEPT IT OUT OF KCDS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE
THREAT OF LOW STRATUS APPEARS MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LOWERED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTER 12 UTC OR SO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR GENERALLY
WEST OF I-27. WE EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AIDED
BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED TOWARD
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
ROUGHLY PLAINS TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS. FAVORED TIME FRAME WILL BE
FROM 03-09Z. LOWS TONIGHT RATHER MILD FROM 65-71.

DOESN`T APPEAR THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ABOVE NORMAL...FROM 93 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
STILL SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BUT LOWER POPS
AREAWIDE. JAMES

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL THEN
MOVE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE US IN A
FAIRLY BENIGN AND HOT PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE GFS GETS THE FRONT
AS FAR AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE DISSIPATING WHAT IS LEFT OF IT.
THIS WOULD GIVE THE PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...A CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHICH SLOWLY
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE /MILDER/ SIDE AS SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD HELP BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR. THIS PROJECTION
WOULD ALSO GIVE US A CHANCE AT RAIN AREA WIDE OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS. DUE TO MODEL SPREAD AND BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BEING CONSISTENT I
HAVE CONTINUED OUR TREND OF RIDING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. I HAVE
KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AM
STARTING TO SLOWLY LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS WHO HAS CHANGED THE PROJECTION OF THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY WITH EACH RUN.

BY THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BE DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT AS A
LOW SKIRTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CA/TX LINE PUTTING US IN VERY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD PUTTING US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY AND BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS THE FRONT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH. THIS WOULD AGAIN GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  94  70  95  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  71  95  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  96  72  97  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  97  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  95  72  97  73 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  96  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  97  75 100  76 /  10  10   0  10  10
SPUR          68  97  75  99  76 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     71 100  75 100  77 /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
324
FXUS64 KLUB 200132 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
832 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE...ASIDE FROM A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND...DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. CONVECTION THAT
ORIGINATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THIS AFTERNOON HAS MADE
DECENT PROGRESS EASTWARD...THOUGH IT HAS ALSO SHOWN A RECENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED MORE RECENTLY IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN
NM...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED FROM NORTHEAST
NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE
GENERAL STEERING FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...THOUGH AT A
FAIRLY SLOW PACE AS IS EVIDENT BY THE MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE ROOSEVELT AND LEA COUNTY ACTIVITY. STILL...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE MODESTLY FROM 20 KNOTS
NOW TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY 06Z THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE
SOME OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES COULD EXPERIENCE A
STORM LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN
CONGEAL AND DEVELOP A DECENT COLD POOL. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TWO POSSIBILITIES...FIRST A SMALL CLUSTER MOVING
OUT OF EASTERN NM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A SECOND
CLUSTER POTENTIALLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THE DETAILS OF HOW THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PLAY
OUT...BUT THE CURRENT EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE SOLID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THUS...NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ATTM. THE FAIRLY ROBUST
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
THROUGH LATE EVENING WHILE THE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
HIGH PWATS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

AVIATION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME TSRA ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE INCLUDED THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE KLBB TAF BUT KEPT IT OUT OF KCDS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE
THREAT OF LOW STRATUS APPEARS MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LOWERED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTER 12 UTC OR SO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR GENERALLY
WEST OF I-27. WE EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AIDED
BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED TOWARD
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
ROUGHLY PLAINS TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS. FAVORED TIME FRAME WILL BE
FROM 03-09Z. LOWS TONIGHT RATHER MILD FROM 65-71.

DOESN`T APPEAR THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ABOVE NORMAL...FROM 93 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
STILL SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BUT LOWER POPS
AREAWIDE. JAMES

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL THEN
MOVE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE US IN A
FAIRLY BENIGN AND HOT PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE GFS GETS THE FRONT
AS FAR AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE DISSIPATING WHAT IS LEFT OF IT.
THIS WOULD GIVE THE PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...A CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHICH SLOWLY
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE /MILDER/ SIDE AS SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD HELP BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR. THIS PROJECTION
WOULD ALSO GIVE US A CHANCE AT RAIN AREA WIDE OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS. DUE TO MODEL SPREAD AND BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BEING CONSISTENT I
HAVE CONTINUED OUR TREND OF RIDING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. I HAVE
KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AM
STARTING TO SLOWLY LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS WHO HAS CHANGED THE PROJECTION OF THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY WITH EACH RUN.

BY THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BE DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT AS A
LOW SKIRTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CA/TX LINE PUTTING US IN VERY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD PUTTING US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY AND BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS THE FRONT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH. THIS WOULD AGAIN GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  94  70  95  70 /  40  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  71  95  72 /  30  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  96  72  97  73 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  97  74 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  95  72  97  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  96  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  97  75 100  76 /  20  10   0  10  10
SPUR          68  97  75  99  76 /  20  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     71 100  75 100  77 /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
212
FXUS64 KLUB 192340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME TSRA ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE INCLUDED THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE KLBB TAF BUT KEPT IT OUT OF KCDS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE
THREAT OF LOW STRATUS APPEARS MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LOWERED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTER 12 UTC OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR GENERALLY
WEST OF I-27. WE EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AIDED
BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED TOWARD
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
ROUGHLY PLAINS TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS. FAVORED TIME FRAME WILL BE
FROM 03-09Z. LOWS TONIGHT RATHER MILD FROM 65-71.

DOESN`T APPEAR THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ABOVE NORMAL...FROM 93 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
STILL SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BUT LOWER POPS
AREAWIDE. JAMES

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL THEN
MOVE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE US IN A
FAIRLY BENIGN AND HOT PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE GFS GETS THE FRONT
AS FAR AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE DISSIPATING WHAT IS LEFT OF IT.
THIS WOULD GIVE THE PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...A CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHICH SLOWLY
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE /MILDER/ SIDE AS SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD HELP BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR. THIS PROJECTION
WOULD ALSO GIVE US A CHANCE AT RAIN AREA WIDE OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS. DUE TO MODEL SPREAD AND BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BEING CONSISTENT I
HAVE CONTINUED OUR TREND OF RIDING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. I HAVE
KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AM
STARTING TO SLOWLY LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS WHO HAS CHANGED THE PROJECTION OF THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY WITH EACH RUN.

BY THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BE DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT AS A
LOW SKIRTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CA/TX LINE PUTTING US IN VERY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD PUTTING US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY AND BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS THE FRONT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH. THIS WOULD AGAIN GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  94  70  95  70 /  40  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  71  95  72 /  30  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  96  72  97  73 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  97  74 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  95  72  97  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  96  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  97  75 100  76 /  20  10   0  10  10
SPUR          68  97  75  99  76 /  20  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     71 100  75 100  77 /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
716
FXUS64 KLUB 191953
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR GENERALLY
WEST OF I-27. WE EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AIDED
BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED TOWARD
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
ROUGHLY PLAINS TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS. FAVORED TIME FRAME WILL BE
FROM 03-09Z. LOWS TONIGHT RATHER MILD FROM 65-71.

DOESN`T APPEAR THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ABOVE NORMAL...FROM 93 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
STILL SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BUT LOWER POPS
AREAWIDE. JAMES

&&

.LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL THEN
MOVE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE US IN A
FAIRLY BENIGN AND HOT PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE GFS GETS THE FRONT
AS FAR AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE DISSIPATING WHAT IS LEFT OF IT.
THIS WOULD GIVE THE PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...A CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHICH SLOWLY
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE /MILDER/ SIDE AS SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD HELP BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR. THIS PROJECTION
WOULD ALSO GIVE US A CHANCE AT RAIN AREA WIDE OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS. DUE TO MODEL SPREAD AND BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BEING CONSISTENT I
HAVE CONTINUED OUR TREND OF RIDING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. I HAVE
KEPT MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AM
STARTING TO SLOWLY LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS WHO HAS CHANGED THE PROJECTION OF THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY WITH EACH RUN.

BY THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BE DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT AS A
LOW SKIRTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CA/TX LINE PUTTING US IN VERY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD PUTTING US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY AND BOTH BRING THE FRONT INTO AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS THE FRONT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH. THIS WOULD AGAIN GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. ALDRICH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  94  70  95  70 /  40  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  71  95  71 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  71  95  72 /  30  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  96  72  97  73 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  97  74 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  95  72  97  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  96  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  97  75 100  76 /  20  10   0  10  10
SPUR          68  97  75  99  76 /  20  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     71 100  75 100  77 /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06/51
300
FXUS64 KLUB 191728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS BEGINNING TO ERODE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOULD SCT AT BOTH
TERMINALS SHORTLY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ERN NM AND DEVELOP S/SE INTO PARTS OF WEST TEXAS MAINLY WEST OF
THE KLBB TERMINAL...BUT KEPT PROB30 AT KLBB FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
03Z AS LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES GOOD INFLOW DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOUR. OTRW FEW CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...LOWER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LOW CIGS AFFECTING THE KLBB TERMINAL. AT THE
MOMENT...LOW CLOUDS WERE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL BUT WERE
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TERMINAL. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO IN THE TAF FOR MVFR CIGS. A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFFECTING KLBB THAN KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER TOP THE
RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA BOOST IN THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY TAKES OVER LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
FURTHERMORE...WE WILL SEE HEIGHT FALLS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AFTER
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES BEFORE THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
GREATLY IMPROVE THE CONVECTION CHANCES FOR US. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HEALTHY INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITHIN THIS AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 120-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. INITIAL
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOWARDS THE
DIMINISHING STAGE OF CONVECTION...MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH WITH 850MB WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME FLOW IN THE COLUMN BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH...CHANCES OF SEVERE REMAIN LOW.

LOW STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THIS CLOUD DECK STICKING AROUND THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER FOR TODAY.

LONG TERM...
THERE ARE FEW CONCERNS THIS FORECAST AS SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT
THAT A 6000-ISH METER RIDGE AT THE 500 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BUILD
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS STILL THE GENERAL WARMTH AND DRYNESS IN
GOING FORECAST REQUIRING LITTLE CHANGE. A COUPLE THINGS TO WATCH
INCLUDE A WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER...PULLING A BIT MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH WESTERN ZONES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE ADDED LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WESTERN BORDER
AREA AS UPPER HEIGHTS NOT YET COMPLETELY DISMISSIVE OF STORM
CHANCES THOUGH FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS SAME
SHORTWAVE DUO STILL APPEARS TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSOURI VALLEY MORE PER THE ECMWF THAN GFS...DRAGGING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD QUASH
THUNDER CHANCES OUR AREA...BUT WE SUSPECT THERE MAY BE NEARER
ACTIVITY THAN INDICATED BY THE GFS. ANYWAY...THIS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  94  68  95  67 /  40  10  20  10   0
TULIA         67  95  70  96  72 /  30  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  94  70  96  72 /  30   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  95  71  98  73 /  30  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  95  71  97  74 /  30   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   68  96  70  98  73 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     70  98  76 100  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          70  97  73  99  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  98  76 100  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/99
009
FXUS64 KLUB 191142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...LOWER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LOW CIGS AFFECTING THE KLBB TERMINAL. AT THE
MOMENT...LOW CLOUDS WERE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL BUT WERE
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TERMINAL. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO IN THE TAF FOR MVFR CIGS. A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFFECTING KLBB THAN KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER TOP THE
RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA BOOST IN THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY TAKES OVER LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
FURTHERMORE...WE WILL SEE HEIGHT FALLS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AFTER
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES BEFORE THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
GREATLY IMPROVE THE CONVECTION CHANCES FOR US. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HEALTHY INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITHIN THIS AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 120-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. INITIAL
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOWARDS THE
DIMINISHING STAGE OF CONVECTION...MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH WITH 850MB WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME FLOW IN THE COLUMN BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH...CHANCES OF SEVERE REMAIN LOW.

LOW STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THIS CLOUD DECK STICKING AROUND THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER FOR TODAY.

LONG TERM...
THERE ARE FEW CONCERNS THIS FORECAST AS SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT
THAT A 6000-ISH METER RIDGE AT THE 500 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BUILD
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS STILL THE GENERAL WARMTH AND DRYNESS IN
GOING FORECAST REQUIRING LITTLE CHANGE. A COUPLE THINGS TO WATCH
INCLUDE A WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER...PULLING A BIT MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH WESTERN ZONES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE ADDED LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WESTERN BORDER
AREA AS UPPER HEIGHTS NOT YET COMPLETELY DISMISSIVE OF STORM
CHANCES THOUGH FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS SAME
SHORTWAVE DUO STILL APPEARS TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSOURI VALLEY MORE PER THE ECMWF THAN GFS...DRAGGING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD QUASH
THUNDER CHANCES OUR AREA...BUT WE SUSPECT THERE MAY BE NEARER
ACTIVITY THAN INDICATED BY THE GFS. ANYWAY...THIS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  66  94  68  95 /  10  40  10  20  10
TULIA         88  67  95  70  96 /  10  30  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     88  66  94  70  96 /  10  30   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  68  95  71  98 /  10  30  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       91  70  95  71  97 /  10  30   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   93  68  96  70  98 /  10  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    92  68  96  72  98 /  10  20  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     89  70  98  76 100 /  10  20   0   0   0
SPUR          91  70  97  73  99 /  10  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     92  72  98  76 100 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
679
FXUS64 KLUB 190906
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
406 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER TOP THE
RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA BOOST IN THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY TAKES OVER LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
FURTHERMORE...WE WILL SEE HEIGHT FALLS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AFTER
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES BEFORE THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
GREATLY IMPROVE THE CONVECTION CHANCES FOR US. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HEALTHY INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITHIN THIS AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 120-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. INITIAL
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOWARDS THE
DIMINISHING STAGE OF CONVECTION...MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH WITH 850MB WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME FLOW IN THE COLUMN BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH...CHANCES OF SEVERE REMAIN LOW.

LOW STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THIS CLOUD DECK STICKING AROUND THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER FOR TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THERE ARE FEW CONCERNS THIS FORECAST AS SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT
THAT A 6000-ISH METER RIDGE AT THE 500 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BUILD
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS STILL THE GENERAL WARMTH AND DRYNESS IN
GOING FORECAST REQUIRING LITTLE CHANGE. A COUPLE THINGS TO WATCH
INCLUDE A WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER...PULLING A BIT MORE
PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH WESTERN ZONES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE ADDED LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WESTERN BORDER
AREA AS UPPER HEIGHTS NOT YET COMPLETELY DISMISSIVE OF STORM
CHANCES THOUGH FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS SAME
SHORTWAVE DUO STILL APPEARS TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSOURI VALLEY MORE PER THE ECMWF THAN GFS...DRAGGING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD QUASH
THUNDER CHANCES OUR AREA...BUT WE SUSPECT THERE MAY BE NEARER
ACTIVITY THAN INDICATED BY THE GFS. ANYWAY...THIS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  66  94  68  95 /  10  40  10  20  10
TULIA         88  67  95  70  96 /  10  30  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     88  66  94  70  96 /  10  30   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  68  95  71  98 /  10  30  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       91  70  95  71  97 /  10  30   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   93  68  96  70  98 /  10  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    92  68  96  72  98 /  10  20  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     89  70  98  76 100 /  10  20   0   0   0
SPUR          91  70  97  73  99 /  10  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     92  72  98  76 100 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
737
FXUS64 KLUB 190445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
EASTERN NM SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS RAISES
CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT...AND HAVE INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THINK CIGS/BR WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH
IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR TOO. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD
SCATTERED/LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. ADDITIONALLY...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM MAY MAKE A STRONGER EASTWARD PUSH
SATURDAY EVENING...PERHAPS EVENING THREATENING KLBB TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION DIRECTLY
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS TOMORROW EVENING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE THIS AFTN WAS COMPOSED OF UA TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SW...LEADING TO NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME THAT ENCOMPASSED
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE
S-SE ON THE CAPROCK...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/NE WINDS OCCURRING OFF
THE CAPROCK. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...SETTING UP AN OBVIOUS TEMP GRADIENT OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SRN LOCALES TO LOWER-MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. WILL
EXPECT CLOUD DECKS TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION HAVE
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL AND NE NEW
MEXICO. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD AID IN STORMS NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD MITIGATE THIS OCCURRENCE FROM
COMING TO PASS.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL
ENCOURAGE CONTINUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME REALIZED. TOMORROW
AFTN...THE UA RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND PROMOTE RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES...HENCE
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL ENDURE AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST NEW MEXICO
MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN FOR THE FAR WEST AND NW SOUTH PLAINS.
STEERING FLOW IS A TAD BETTER AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

LONG TERM...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST PUTTING US IN
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR LATE SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE HIGH
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NM AND
MOVING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG
A LEE TROF. DRY AIR AND ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAIN IN
QUESTION BUT FOR NOW I SEE NO NEED TO ADJUST POPS THAT ARE IN PLACE
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH NEXT WEEK WE
CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH. THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH JUST A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF...WHO HAS MAX HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AT 600DM...AND KEEPS HEIGHTS
AVERAGED BETWEEN 594 TO 597DM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NICE AND TOASTY
AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S BEING EASILY OBTAINABLE.
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL BE WARMER PUSHING INTO THE LOW 100S AT
TIMES. THE RECENT RAINS WILL HELP ADD A SAUNA EFFECT OUT EAST AS
WELL. ONE ITEM OF INTEREST IS A WEAK FRONT THAT IS BROUGHT SOUTHWARD
BY BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BY MID WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DRAPE
THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND DEVELOP SOME PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 2 MODELS ARE
THAT THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED CLOSER OVERHEAD THAN
THE ECMWF AND KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. SINCE THE
ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH FARTHER WEST...THAT WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE FA. SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
LINGERING AT THE SURFACE...GENERAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT
BE HARD TO COME BY. THIS WOULD ALSO COOL TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES BUT
STILL KEEP US IN THE 90S. I HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS BUT KEEP THEM
BELOW MENTION DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN GIVING WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS A LOW
SKIRTS THE CA/US BORDER. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD AND OPEN UP A CHANCE FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
POSSIBLE A SHOT AT RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  90  67  94  69 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         63  89  68  93  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  88  69  94  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  92  71  96  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  70  95  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  72  97  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  92  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     65  90  71  97  75 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          66  91  72  97  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     67  93  73  98  76 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
771
FXUS64 KLUB 182346
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A RETURN OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
TOWARD DAWN AT KLBB AND KCDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE THIS AFTN WAS COMPOSED OF UA TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SW...LEADING TO NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME THAT ENCOMPASSED
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE
S-SE ON THE CAPROCK...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/NE WINDS OCCURRING OFF
THE CAPROCK. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...SETTING UP AN OBVIOUS TEMP GRADIENT OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SRN LOCALES TO LOWER-MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. WILL
EXPECT CLOUD DECKS TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION HAVE
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL AND NE NEW
MEXICO. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD AID IN STORMS NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD MITIGATE THIS OCCURRENCE FROM
COMING TO PASS.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL
ENCOURAGE CONTINUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME REALIZED. TOMORROW
AFTN...THE UA RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND PROMOTE RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES...HENCE
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL ENDURE AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST NEW MEXICO
MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN FOR THE FAR WEST AND NW SOUTH PLAINS.
STEERING FLOW IS A TAD BETTER AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

LONG TERM...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST PUTTING US IN
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR LATE SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE HIGH
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NM AND
MOVING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG
A LEE TROF. DRY AIR AND ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAIN IN
QUESTION BUT FOR NOW I SEE NO NEED TO ADJUST POPS THAT ARE IN PLACE
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH NEXT WEEK WE
CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH. THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH JUST A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF...WHO HAS MAX HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AT 600DM...AND KEEPS HEIGHTS
AVERAGED BETWEEN 594 TO 597DM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NICE AND TOASTY
AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S BEING EASILY OBTAINABLE.
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL BE WARMER PUSHING INTO THE LOW 100S AT
TIMES. THE RECENT RAINS WILL HELP ADD A SAUNA EFFECT OUT EAST AS
WELL. ONE ITEM OF INTEREST IS A WEAK FRONT THAT IS BROUGHT SOUTHWARD
BY BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BY MID WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DRAPE
THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND DEVELOP SOME PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 2 MODELS ARE
THAT THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED CLOSER OVERHEAD THAN
THE ECMWF AND KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. SINCE THE
ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH FARTHER WEST...THAT WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE FA. SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
LINGERING AT THE SURFACE...GENERAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT
BE HARD TO COME BY. THIS WOULD ALSO COOL TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES BUT
STILL KEEP US IN THE 90S. I HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS BUT KEEP THEM
BELOW MENTION DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN GIVING WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS A LOW
SKIRTS THE CA/US BORDER. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD AND OPEN UP A CHANCE FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
POSSIBLE A SHOT AT RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  90  67  94  69 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         63  89  68  93  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  88  69  94  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  92  71  96  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  70  95  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  72  97  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  92  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     65  90  71  97  75 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          66  91  72  97  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     67  93  73  98  76 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
854
FXUS64 KLUB 181951
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE THIS AFTN WAS COMPOSED OF UA TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SW...LEADING TO NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THE UPSLOPE SFC REGIME THAT ENCOMPASSED
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE
S-SE ON THE CAPROCK...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/NE WINDS OCCURRING OFF
THE CAPROCK. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY ERODED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...SETTING UP AN OBVIOUS TEMP GRADIENT OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SRN LOCALES TO LOWER-MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. WILL
EXPECT CLOUD DECKS TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION HAVE
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL AND NE NEW
MEXICO. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD AID IN STORMS NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD MITIGATE THIS OCCURRENCE FROM
COMING TO PASS.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL
ENCOURAGE CONTINUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME REALIZED. TOMORROW
AFTN...THE UA RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EAST AND PROMOTE RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES...HENCE
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL ENDURE AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST NEW MEXICO
MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN FOR THE FAR WEST AND NW SOUTH PLAINS.
STEERING FLOW IS A TAD BETTER AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEATHER IN THE LONGTERM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST PUTTING US IN
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR LATE SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE HIGH
DEVELOPING SOME CONVECTION ON THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NM AND
MOVING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG
A LEE TROF. DRY AIR AND ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAIN IN
QUESTION BUT FOR NOW I SEE NO NEED TO ADJUST POPS THAT ARE IN PLACE
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH NEXT WEEK WE
CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH. THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH JUST A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF...WHO HAS MAX HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AT 600DM...AND KEEPS HEIGHTS
AVERAGED BETWEEN 594 TO 597DM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NICE AND TOASTY
AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S BEING EASILY OBTAINABLE.
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL BE WARMER PUSHING INTO THE LOW 100S AT
TIMES. THE RECENT RAINS WILL HELP ADD A SAUNA EFFECT OUT EAST AS
WELL. ONE ITEM OF INTEREST IS A WEAK FRONT THAT IS BROUGHT SOUTHWARD
BY BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BY MID WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DRAPE
THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND DEVELOP SOME PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 2 MODELS ARE
THAT THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED CLOSER OVERHEAD THAN
THE ECMWF AND KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. SINCE THE
ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH FARTHER WEST...THAT WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE FA. SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
LINGERING AT THE SURFACE...GENERAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT
BE HARD TO COME BY. THIS WOULD ALSO COOL TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES BUT
STILL KEEP US IN THE 90S. I HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS BUT KEEP THEM
BELOW MENTION DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN GIVING WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS A LOW
SKIRTS THE CA/US BORDER. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE RIDGE FARTHER
WESTWARD AND OPEN UP A CHANCE FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
POSSIBLE A SHOT AT RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  90  67  94  69 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         63  89  68  93  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  88  69  94  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  92  71  96  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  70  95  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  72  97  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  92  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     65  90  71  97  75 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          66  91  72  97  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     67  93  73  98  76 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/51
907
FXUS64 KLUB 181729
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUD DECKS WERE SLOW TO LIFT. COMPUTER MODELS
HINT AT LOW CLOUDS SCOURING OUT/LIFTING TO VFR BY MID-DAY.
OTHERWISE...E-SE WINDS WILL ENSUE WITH HINTS OF THE RETURN OF MVFR
CLOUD DECKS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INSERTED A FEW MENTION
ATTM BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT A FOG MENTION AS COMPUTER MODEL DO NOT SHOW
100 PERCENT LOW LEVEL SATURATION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FAVORABLE SET UP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH WEST TEXAS. EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO
DECREASE TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND SEASONAL VALUES. THIS MAY BE
A LITTLE MISLEADING THOUGH WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
HIGH INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE INTO WEST TEXAS COINCIDENT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FURTHERMORE...HEIGHT RISES TODAY WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING IS SHOWING INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT IT WILL HANG ONTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ABNORMALLY COOL DAY FOR THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT LOOKS
TO ENCOMPASS A SMALLER PORTION OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM...
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS ON THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE DAYS AHEAD...PEAKING WEDNESDAY-
ISH WITH NEARLY 6000 METERS OF HEIGHT AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OBVIOUS WARMING AND DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH FOR LATE SATURDAY AND EVEN PERHAPS LATE
SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...THERE MAY YET BE JUST ENOUGH FLOW
WITH ATMOSPHERE STILL ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED FOR AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES. SATURDAY WILL SEE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL WITH
MODEST SURFACE TROUGH PERHAPS LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM GENERATION
NOT TOO FAR WEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BOOSTING OPPORTUNITY
JUST SLIGHTLY. HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH LATEST CALCULATIONS REMAIN SHORT OF
ACTION LEVELS. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY UNDER MOST
GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. EASTERLY
COMPONENTS ALSO EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE CENTER TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAT FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  66  95  69 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         63  89  68  95  70 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  89  70  95  71 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  93  70  97  72 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  73  97  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  94  69  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  70  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     65  91  73  98  75 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          66  92  72  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     67  93  75  97  76 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
211
FXUS64 KLUB 181129
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW
CIGS MAY CONTINUE AT KCDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
BREAKING UP. OTHERWISE...LOW CIGS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE TERMINALS
FOR SATURDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FAVORABLE SET UP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH WEST TEXAS. EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO
DECREASE TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND SEASONAL VALUES. THIS MAY BE
A LITTLE MISLEADING THOUGH WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
HIGH INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE INTO WEST TEXAS COINCIDENT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FURTHERMORE...HEIGHT RISES TODAY WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING IS SHOWING INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT IT WILL HANG ONTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ABNORMALLY COOL DAY FOR THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT LOOKS
TO ENCOMPASS A SMALLER PORTION OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM...
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS ON THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE DAYS AHEAD...PEAKING WEDNESDAY-
ISH WITH NEARLY 6000 METERS OF HEIGHT AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OBVIOUS WARMING AND DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH FOR LATE SATURDAY AND EVEN PERHAPS LATE
SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...THERE MAY YET BE JUST ENOUGH FLOW
WITH ATMOSPHERE STILL ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED FOR AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES. SATURDAY WILL SEE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL WITH
MODEST SURFACE TROUGH PERHAPS LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM GENERATION
NOT TOO FAR WEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BOOSTING OPPORTUNITY
JUST SLIGHTLY. HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH LATEST CALCULATIONS REMAIN SHORT OF
ACTION LEVELS. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY UNDER MOST
GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. EASTERLY
COMPONENTS ALSO EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE CENTER TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAT FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  63  90  66  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
TULIA         80  63  89  68  95 /   0  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     80  63  89  70  95 /   0  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     84  65  93  70  97 /  10  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       83  66  91  73  97 /   0  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   87  66  94  69  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    86  66  93  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     78  65  91  73  98 /  10   0  10  20  10
SPUR          81  66  92  72  97 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     81  67  93  75  97 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
852
FXUS64 KLUB 180923
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
423 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A FAVORABLE SET UP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH WEST TEXAS. EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO
DECREASE TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND SEASONAL VALUES. THIS MAY BE
A LITTLE MISLEADING THOUGH WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
HIGH INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE INTO WEST TEXAS COINCIDENT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FURTHERMORE...HEIGHT RISES TODAY WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING IS SHOWING INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT IT WILL HANG ONTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ABNORMALLY COOL DAY FOR THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT THE AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT LOOKS
TO ENCOMPASS A SMALLER PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS ON THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE DAYS AHEAD...PEAKING WEDNESDAY-
ISH WITH NEARLY 6000 METERS OF HEIGHT AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OBVIOUS WARMING AND DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH FOR LATE SATURDAY AND EVEN PERHAPS LATE
SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...THERE MAY YET BE JUST ENOUGH FLOW
WITH ATMOSPHERE STILL ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED FOR AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES. SATURDAY WILL SEE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL WITH
MODEST SURFACE TROUGH PERHAPS LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM GENERATION
NOT TOO FAR WEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BOOSTING OPPORTUNITY
JUST SLIGHTLY. HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH LATEST CALCULATIONS REMAIN SHORT OF
ACTION LEVELS. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN IN GENERAL SLIGHTLY UNDER MOST
GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. EASTERLY
COMPONENTS ALSO EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE CENTER TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAT FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  63  90  66  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
TULIA         80  63  89  68  95 /   0  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     80  63  89  70  95 /   0  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     84  65  93  70  97 /  10  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       83  66  92  73  97 /   0  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   87  66  94  69  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    86  66  93  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     78  65  91  73  98 /  10   0  10  20  10
SPUR          81  66  92  72  97 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     81  67  93  75  97 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
686
FXUS64 KLUB 180447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.AVIATION...
BOTH KLBB AND KCDS WERE CURRENTLY REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WE EXPECT A
RETURN OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES...BUT HAVE REFLECTED A GENERAL DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT FRIDAY...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER THINKING AND VFR CONDITIONS
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL MIDDAY OR SLIGHT THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PRODUCED A VERY
COOL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 3 PM TEMPS ONLY IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. IN FACT THE TEMP SO FAR AT LUBBOCK HAS ONLY
REACHED 72 DEGREES AND WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE PREVIOUS
COOLEST HIGH TEMP FOR JULY 17TH OF 77 DEGREES. SATELLITE DOES SHOW
A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING OCCURRING ON THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA...BUT WE THINK WE/LL ONLY SEE SOME SOME PARTIAL SUN LATE IN
THE DAY BEFORE LOW STRATUS FILLS BACK IN THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND WE CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...AREAS OF FOG OR EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOW/S TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL
APPROACH THE RECORD VALUES AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH MORE SUN DURING
THE DAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL STILL
BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...SOME AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...BUT CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS ERN NM
TOWARD THE STATE LINE.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE REMAINS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...AND THIS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
BOTH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.  AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REACH ITS WIDEST EAST TO WEST EXTENT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND AS A RESULT...IT THESE TWO DAYS WILL LIKELY
BE PARTICULARLY WARM WITH DAYTIME MAXIMUMS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY AS WELL...STRONG HEATING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE CENTER COMBINED WITH LINGERING MODEST MOISTURE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW GARDEN VARIETY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPLICIT MENTION IN
THE FORECAST PRODUCTS AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 PERCENT
EVEN IF THE MOST OPTIMISTIC PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...JUST PRIOR TO THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE NW LATE SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.
THUS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN SCHC MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MID WEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND ITS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE ECMWF HAS ALSO PERSISTENTLY DEPICTED A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SOMETIME IN THE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ADDITIONAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD JUST
YET UNTIL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  82  63  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
TULIA         58  79  64  89  68 /  10   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     58  79  65  89  70 /  10   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     60  84  67  94  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       60  83  68  93  73 /  10   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   63  85  68  96  69 /  10  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  83  67  95  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     60  82  67  89  73 /  10  10   0  10  20
SPUR          60  82  68  93  72 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  85  70  96  75 /  20  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/24/23
666
FXUS64 KLUB 172347
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS ITERATION IS ON LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIGS AT KLBB CURRENTLY RESIDE IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY WHILE KCDS HAS RECENTLY FALLEN BACK INTO IFR
TERRITORY. EXPECT THESE MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN DROPPING TO LIFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES IS LOW. BEFORE THEN...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED NORTH OF KLBB AND COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING TOO. IN ADDITION...DRIZZLE AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KCDS. REGARDLESS...QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR SHOULD
OCCUR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PRODUCED A VERY
COOL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 3 PM TEMPS ONLY IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. IN FACT THE TEMP SO FAR AT LUBBOCK HAS ONLY
REACHED 72 DEGREES AND WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE PREVIOUS
COOLEST HIGH TEMP FOR JULY 17TH OF 77 DEGREES. SATELLITE DOES SHOW
A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING OCCURRING ON THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA...BUT WE THINK WE/LL ONLY SEE SOME SOME PARTIAL SUN LATE IN
THE DAY BEFORE LOW STRATUS FILLS BACK IN THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND WE CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...AREAS OF FOG OR EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOW/S TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL
APPROACH THE RECORD VALUES AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH MORE SUN DURING
THE DAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL STILL
BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...SOME AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...BUT CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS ERN NM
TOWARD THE STATE LINE.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE REMAINS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...AND THIS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
BOTH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.  AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REACH ITS WIDEST EAST TO WEST EXTENT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND AS A RESULT...IT THESE TWO DAYS WILL LIKELY
BE PARTICULARLY WARM WITH DAYTIME MAXIMUMS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY AS WELL...STRONG HEATING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE CENTER COMBINED WITH LINGERING MODEST MOISTURE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW GARDEN VARIETY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPLICIT MENTION IN
THE FORECAST PRODUCTS AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 PERCENT
EVEN IF THE MOST OPTIMISTIC PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...JUST PRIOR TO THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE NW LATE SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.
THUS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN SCHC MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MID WEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND ITS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE ECMWF HAS ALSO PERSISTENTLY DEPICTED A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SOMETIME IN THE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ADDITIONAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD JUST
YET UNTIL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  82  63  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
TULIA         58  79  64  89  68 /  10   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     58  79  65  89  70 /  10   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     60  84  67  94  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       60  83  68  93  73 /  10   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   63  85  68  96  69 /  10  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  83  67  95  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     60  82  67  89  73 /  10  10   0  10  20
SPUR          60  82  68  93  72 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  85  70  96  75 /  20  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/24/23
939
FXUS64 KLUB 172106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
406 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PRODUCED A VERY
COOL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 3 PM TEMPS ONLY IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. IN FACT THE TEMP SO FAR AT LUBBOCK HAS ONLY
REACHED 72 DEGREES AND WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE PREVIOUS
COOLEST HIGH TEMP FOR JULY 17TH OF 77 DEGREES. SATELLITE DOES SHOW
A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING OCCURRING ON THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA...BUT WE THINK WE/LL ONLY SEE SOME SOME PARTIAL SUN LATE IN
THE DAY BEFORE LOW STRATUS FILLS BACK IN THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND WE CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...AREAS OF FOG OR EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOW/S TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL
APPROACH THE RECORD VALUES AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH MORE SUN DURING
THE DAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL STILL
BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...SOME AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...BUT CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS ERN NM
TOWARD THE STATE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE REMAINS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...AND THIS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
BOTH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.  AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REACH ITS WIDEST EAST TO WEST EXTENT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND AS A RESULT...IT THESE TWO DAYS WILL LIKELY
BE PARTICULARLY WARM WITH DAYTIME MAXIMUMS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY AS WELL...STRONG HEATING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE CENTER COMBINED WITH LINGERING MODEST MOISTURE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW GARDEN VARIETY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPLICIT MENTION IN
THE FORECAST PRODUCTS AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 PERCENT
EVEN IF THE MOST OPTIMISTIC PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...JUST PRIOR TO THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE NW LATE SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.
THUS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN SCHC MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MID WEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND ITS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY.  THE ECMWF HAS ALSO PERSISTENTLY DEPICTED A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME IN THE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
ADDITIONAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD JUST YET UNTIL SOLUTIONS
EXHIBIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  82  63  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
TULIA         58  79  64  89  68 /  10   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     58  79  65  89  70 /  10   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     60  84  67  94  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       61  84  68  93  73 /  10   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   63  85  68  96  69 /  10  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  83  67  95  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     60  82  67  89  73 /  10  10   0  10  20
SPUR          60  82  68  93  72 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  85  70  96  75 /  20  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/16
109
FXUS64 KLUB 171758
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1258 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE LOW
CEILINGS. FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AT KCDS. WE HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IF/WHEN CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON....BUT
WE INDICATED A VFR PERIOD IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT INTO IFR CATEGORY AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF
LIFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KLBB TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SMALL COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF
THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION IN ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND
NRN ROLLING PLAINS...CHILDRESS HAS BEEN SOCKED IN FOR WHILE BUT
PLAINVIEW HASN/T...SO THE FOG LIKELY TERMINATES SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TODAY
OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE
IMPACTING KCDS WHILE KLBB WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE. VERY MOIST
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO
MVFR BY AFTERNOON. RISK OF IFR OR LOWER RETURNING TONIGHT WITH
MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST TODAY EASTERN AREAS
AS A WELL DEFINED UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. COOLER AIR ALSO
INVADING THE REGION AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FLOOD THREAT
THOUGH WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE EARLIER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN
ENOUGH TRAINING OR RETENTION OF CORES TO VALIDATE THIS THREAT SO FAR.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH
SHORTER UPDRAFTS THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY EVENING WE EXPECT MORE IMPACT FROM A
DRYING TREND SETTING IN...HELD LOW CHANCE MENTION FAVORING SOUTHEAST
ZONES WITH GRADUAL DRYING AND LOWERING MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER IN
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS
LATEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WARMING TEMPERATURES CHARACTERIZE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS ON TAP TO BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER OVERALL THAN THOSE EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE COULD BE NARROW WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AS LONG AS ITS CENTER STAYS WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH HAS AND STILL LOOKS TO BE THE CASE AT THIS
TIME.

FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WHERE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE EVENING REMAIN NIL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW WITH
THESE BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AN APPRECIABLE
CAP ALOFT. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
VALID ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE CONTINUED HINT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES.
SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE IN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOLLOWING SATURDAY EVENING
AS CONTINUED RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS WITH QUESTION AS TO ITS
INTENSITY AND EXACT LOCATION. NWP SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOWER
PROPAGATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE
EASTERN CONUS ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE AT BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK
AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  57  83  64  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         75  59  81  64  90 /  20  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     76  60  81  65  90 /  20  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     82  60  84  66  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       81  62  83  68  94 /  20  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   87  61  85  66  97 /  30  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    83  61  85  66  96 /  30  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     76  63  82  67  91 /  30  20  10   0  10
SPUR          82  63  83  67  95 /  40  30   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     83  66  84  70  95 /  60  40  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/99/99
063
FXUS64 KLUB 171512 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1012 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SMALL COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF
THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION IN ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND
NRN ROLLING PLAINS...CHILDRESS HAS BEEN SOCKED IN FOR WHILE BUT
PLAINVIEW HASN/T...SO THE FOG LIKELY TERMINATES SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TODAY
OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE
IMPACTING KCDS WHILE KLBB WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE. VERY MOIST
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO
MVFR BY AFTERNOON. RISK OF IFR OR LOWER RETURNING TONIGHT WITH
MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST TODAY EASTERN AREAS
AS A WELL DEFINED UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. COOLER AIR ALSO
INVADING THE REGION AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FLOOD THREAT
THOUGH WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE EARLIER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN
ENOUGH TRAINING OR RETENTION OF CORES TO VALIDATE THIS THREAT SO FAR.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH
SHORTER UPDRAFTS THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY EVENING WE EXPECT MORE IMPACT FROM A
DRYING TREND SETTING IN...HELD LOW CHANCE MENTION FAVORING SOUTHEAST
ZONES WITH GRADUAL DRYING AND LOWERING MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER IN
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS
LATEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WARMING TEMPERATURES CHARACTERIZE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS ON TAP TO BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER OVERALL THAN THOSE EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE COULD BE NARROW WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AS LONG AS ITS CENTER STAYS WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH HAS AND STILL LOOKS TO BE THE CASE AT THIS
TIME.

FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WHERE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE EVENING REMAIN NIL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW WITH
THESE BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AN APPRECIABLE
CAP ALOFT. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
VALID ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE CONTINUED HINT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES.
SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE IN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOLLOWING SATURDAY EVENING
AS CONTINUED RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS WITH QUESTION AS TO ITS
INTENSITY AND EXACT LOCATION. NWP SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOWER
PROPAGATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE
EASTERN CONUS ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE AT BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK
AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  57  83  64  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         75  59  81  64  90 /  20  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     76  60  81  65  90 /  30  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     82  60  84  66  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       81  62  83  68  94 /  20  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   87  61  85  66  97 /  30  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    83  61  85  66  96 /  30  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     76  63  82  67  91 /  30  20  10   0  10
SPUR          82  63  83  67  95 /  50  30   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     83  66  84  70  95 /  80  40  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
046
FXUS64 KLUB 171157
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
657 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TODAY
OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE
IMPACTING KCDS WHILE KLBB WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE. VERY MOIST
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO
MVFR BY AFTERNOON. RISK OF IFR OR LOWER RETURNING TONIGHT WITH
MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST TODAY EASTERN AREAS
AS A WELL DEFINED UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. COOLER AIR ALSO
INVADING THE REGION AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FLOOD THREAT
THOUGH WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE EARLIER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN
ENOUGH TRAINING OR RETENTION OF CORES TO VALIDATE THIS THREAT SO FAR.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH
SHORTER UPDRAFTS THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY EVENING WE EXPECT MORE IMPACT FROM A
DRYING TREND SETTING IN...HELD LOW CHANCE MENTION FAVORING SOUTHEAST
ZONES WITH GRADUAL DRYING AND LOWERING MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER IN
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS
LATEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WARMING TEMPERATURES CHARACTERIZE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS ON TAP TO BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER OVERALL THAN THOSE EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE COULD BE NARROW WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AS LONG AS ITS CENTER STAYS WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH HAS AND STILL LOOKS TO BE THE CASE AT THIS
TIME.

FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WHERE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE EVENING REMAIN NIL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW WITH
THESE BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AN APPRECIABLE
CAP ALOFT. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
VALID ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE CONTINUED HINT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES.
SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE IN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOLLOWING SATURDAY EVENING
AS CONTINUED RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS WITH QUESTION AS TO ITS
INTENSITY AND EXACT LOCATION. NWP SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOWER
PROPAGATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE
EASTERN CONUS ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE AT BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK
AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  57  83  64  92 /  50  20  10  10  10
TULIA         75  59  81  64  90 /  70  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     76  60  81  65  90 /  60  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     82  60  84  66  95 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       81  62  83  68  94 /  50  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   87  61  85  66  97 /  30  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    83  61  85  66  96 /  30  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     76  63  82  67  91 /  80  20  10   0  10
SPUR          82  63  83  67  95 /  80  30   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     83  66  84  70  95 /  80  40  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

99/99/05
670
FXUS64 KLUB 170852
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST TODAY EASTERN AREAS
AS A WELL DEFINED UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. COOLER AIR ALSO
INVADING THE REGION AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FLOOD THREAT
THOUGH WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE EARLIER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN
ENOUGH TRAINING OR RETENTION OF CORES TO VALIDATE THIS THREAT SO FAR.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH
SHORTER UPDRAFTS THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY EVENING WE EXPECT MORE IMPACT FROM A
DRYING TREND SETTING IN...HELD LOW CHANCE MENTION FAVORING SOUTHEAST
ZONES WITH GRADUAL DRYING AND LOWERING MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER IN
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS
LATEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WARMING TEMPERATURES CHARACTERIZE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS ON TAP TO BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER OVERALL THAN THOSE EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE COULD BE NARROW WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AS LONG AS ITS CENTER STAYS WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH HAS AND STILL LOOKS TO BE THE CASE AT THIS
TIME.

FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WHERE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE EVENING REMAIN NIL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW WITH
THESE BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AN APPRECIABLE
CAP ALOFT. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
VALID ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE CONTINUED HINT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES.
SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE IN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOLLOWING SATURDAY EVENING
AS CONTINUED RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS WITH QUESTION AS TO ITS
INTENSITY AND EXACT LOCATION. NWP SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOWER
PROPAGATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE
EASTERN CONUS ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE AT BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK
AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  57  83  64  92 /  50  20  10  10  10
TULIA         75  59  81  64  90 /  70  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     76  60  81  65  90 /  60  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     82  60  84  66  95 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       81  62  83  68  94 /  50  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   87  61  85  66  97 /  30  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    83  61  85  66  96 /  30  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     76  63  82  67  91 /  80  20  10   0  10
SPUR          82  63  83  67  95 /  80  30   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     83  66  84  70  95 /  80  40  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

05/31
113
FXUS64 KLUB 170507
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS ON THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCDS AFTER 06Z...WITH
A LITTLE MORE CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT KLBB AFTER 07Z.
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER WELL
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER
BEHIND A DECENT JULY COLD FRONT. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY.

ASIDE FROM ONE SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS THIS
EVENING...MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION HAS REMAINED VOID OF
STORMS SO FAR THIS EVENING. INSTEAD A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS
FOUND IN CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THERE
INTO COLORADO. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTHEAST COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FOR THE
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ
OF 30+ KNOTS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GRADUALLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WE DO EXPECT SOME FORM OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP MORE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MODERATE LLJ. THUS...WE STILL EXPECT THE
NORTHEAST ZONES TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT EXPERIENCING STORM
OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST YOU
GO...THOUGH NEARLY ANYONE COULD SEE CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT
NAM AND GFS EVEN SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AIR /RANGING
FROM 1.3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO 1.7 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS/ THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES...AND BRING THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD EVEN
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT BY THEN. THUS...WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AND WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WE HAVE NOT MADE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING FROM
THE WRN OKLA PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN
BENDING EWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING SOUTH
NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AND
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN SOME INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN NRN LEA
COUNTY. UPPER-LVL NW FLOW IS STILL RATHER WEAK OVERHEAD...BUT
STRONGER WINDS ARE UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NM. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WE WILL SEE IN THE AXIS RUNNING IN-BETWEEN NRN AND SE NM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT WE DO EXPECT THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. WE ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUR SE COUNTIES...WHICH
LIE JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WILL
FAVOR MORE PULSE TYPE STORMS INITIALLY...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE STORMS IN NE NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE
TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE SEWD. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK AND EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX. IN GENERAL...THE HIGHER RES MODELS FAVOR A MORE WWD
PATH/EXTENT...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE NEWD TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OKLA...SKIRTING THE FAR SRN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS. WE CAN/T REALLY RULE OUT EITHER
CASE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
COMPLEX AND THAT IT WILL IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE/MOST IMPACT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. WE
EXPECT SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS COMPLEX AS PWAT VALUES ARE
VERY HIGH AND THE SRLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS POCKETS OF 3 INCHES
OR MORE. THERE MAY ALSO BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE RAINFALL. THE
REGION OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME WILL BE ALONG THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT IN BRISCOE COUNTY...INCLUDING CAPROCK CANYONS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE WASHES AND RIVERBEDS FEEDING INTO
THE RED RIVER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT...PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
PRETTY STABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
HIGH THU WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S NORTH...WITH LOW 80S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE COMPLETELY PASSED THROUGH BOTH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  WHILE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE AND NOW MAINTAIN SOME LINGERING
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE LUB
CWA BEYOND 00Z DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BEYOND 00Z TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM BEFORE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AS A
VERY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND PERHAPS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN
ORIGINALLY DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE BAD NEWS FOR THE REGION FOR TWO REASONS...AS RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME BY UNDER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE...AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY SOAR. IN FACT...SHOULD THE MORE DRASTIC
SCENARIO PLAY OUT IN WHICH THE CORE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY EASILY REACH INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. CONSIDERING THAT THIS SHIFT IN
THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY DRASTIC FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON INCREASING TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM
CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. AS
FOR RAIN CHANCES...OPTED TO LEAVE SCHC MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FOR SATURDAY EVENING...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. SHOULD
THIS TREND CONTINUE THOUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  60  82  64 /  70  20  20  10  10
TULIA         62  75  60  78  64 /  80  30  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     64  76  60  79  65 /  70  30  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     65  82  59  82  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  81  61  82  68 /  60  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  87  62  83  66 /  40  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  85  60  81  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  78  64  81  67 /  90  70  10  10  10
SPUR          68  82  62  82  67 /  60  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  84  65  85  70 /  60  60  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

23/24/23
525
FXUS64 KLUB 170307 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY.

ASIDE FROM ONE SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS THIS
EVENING...MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION HAS REMAINED VOID OF
STORMS SO FAR THIS EVENING. INSTEAD A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS
FOUND IN CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THERE
INTO COLORADO. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTHEAST COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FOR THE
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ
OF 30+ KNOTS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GRADUALLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WE DO EXPECT SOME FORM OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP MORE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MODERATE LLJ. THUS...WE STILL EXPECT THE
NORTHEAST ZONES TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT EXPERIENCING STORM
OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST YOU
GO...THOUGH NEARLY ANYONE COULD SEE CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT
NAM AND GFS EVEN SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AIR /RANGING
FROM 1.3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO 1.7 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS/ THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES...AND BRING THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD EVEN
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT BY THEN. THUS...WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AND WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WE HAVE NOT MADE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS ATTM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WAS JUST
MOVING THROUGH KLBB. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY AND IT COULD PERHAPS GENERATE A SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS PASSAGE WILL BE A DRY ONE.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS AT KCDS AND PERHAPS KLBB LATER TONIGHT.
KEPT STORM TIMING IN THE TAFS AS IS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
STARTING AFTER 02Z AT KCDS AND AFTER 05Z AT KLBB. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD
LINGER WELL INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH THE EXACT
DURATION/LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LESS CLEAR. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT THURSDAY MORNING AT KCDS
AND BY AFTERNOON AT KLBB...WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR SUB-VFR CIGS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS KCDS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR TO IFR CIGS...THOUGH THEY COULD ALSO AFFECT KLBB. CONVECTION
CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING FROM
THE WRN OKLA PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN
BENDING EWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING SOUTH
NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AND
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN SOME INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN NRN LEA
COUNTY. UPPER-LVL NW FLOW IS STILL RATHER WEAK OVERHEAD...BUT
STRONGER WINDS ARE UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NM. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WE WILL SEE IN THE AXIS RUNNING IN-BETWEEN NRN AND SE NM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT WE DO EXPECT THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. WE ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUR SE COUNTIES...WHICH
LIE JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WILL
FAVOR MORE PULSE TYPE STORMS INITIALLY...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE STORMS IN NE NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE
TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE SEWD. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK AND EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX. IN GENERAL...THE HIGHER RES MODELS FAVOR A MORE WWD
PATH/EXTENT...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE NEWD TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OKLA...SKIRTING THE FAR SRN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS. WE CAN/T REALLY RULE OUT EITHER
CASE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
COMPLEX AND THAT IT WILL IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE/MOST IMPACT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. WE
EXPECT SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS COMPLEX AS PWAT VALUES ARE
VERY HIGH AND THE SRLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS POCKETS OF 3 INCHES
OR MORE. THERE MAY ALSO BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE RAINFALL. THE
REGION OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME WILL BE ALONG THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT IN BRISCOE COUNTY...INCLUDING CAPROCK CANYONS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE WASHES AND RIVERBEDS FEEDING INTO
THE RED RIVER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT...PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
PRETTY STABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
HIGH THU WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S NORTH...WITH LOW 80S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE COMPLETELY PASSED THROUGH BOTH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  WHILE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE AND NOW MAINTAIN SOME LINGERING
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE LUB
CWA BEYOND 00Z DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BEYOND 00Z TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM BEFORE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AS A
VERY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND PERHAPS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN
ORIGINALLY DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE BAD NEWS FOR THE REGION FOR TWO REASONS...AS RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME BY UNDER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE...AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY SOAR. IN FACT...SHOULD THE MORE DRASTIC
SCENARIO PLAY OUT IN WHICH THE CORE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY EASILY REACH INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. CONSIDERING THAT THIS SHIFT IN
THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY DRASTIC FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON INCREASING TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM
CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. AS
FOR RAIN CHANCES...OPTED TO LEAVE SCHC MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FOR SATURDAY EVENING...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. SHOULD
THIS TREND CONTINUE THOUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  60  82  64 /  70  20  20  10  10
TULIA         62  75  60  78  64 /  80  30  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     64  76  60  79  65 /  70  30  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     65  82  59  82  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  81  61  82  68 /  60  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  87  62  83  66 /  40  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  85  60  81  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  78  64  81  67 /  90  70  10  10  10
SPUR          68  82  62  82  67 /  60  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  84  65  85  70 /  60  60  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

23/24
737
FXUS64 KLUB 170003
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WAS JUST
MOVING THROUGH KLBB. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY AND IT COULD PERHAPS GENERATE A SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS PASSAGE WILL BE A DRY ONE.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS AT KCDS AND PERHAPS KLBB LATER TONIGHT.
KEPT STORM TIMING IN THE TAFS AS IS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
STARTING AFTER 02Z AT KCDS AND AFTER 05Z AT KLBB. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD
LINGER WELL INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH THE EXACT
DURATION/LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LESS CLEAR. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT THURSDAY MORNING AT KCDS
AND BY AFTERNOON AT KLBB...WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR SUB-VFR CIGS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS KCDS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR TO IFR CIGS...THOUGH THEY COULD ALSO AFFECT KLBB. CONVECTION
CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING FROM
THE WRN OKLA PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN
BENDING EWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING SOUTH
NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AND
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN SOME INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN NRN LEA
COUNTY. UPPER-LVL NW FLOW IS STILL RATHER WEAK OVERHEAD...BUT
STRONGER WINDS ARE UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NM. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WE WILL SEE IN THE AXIS RUNNING IN-BETWEEN NRN AND SE NM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT WE DO EXPECT THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. WE ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUR SE COUNTIES...WHICH
LIE JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WILL
FAVOR MORE PULSE TYPE STORMS INITIALLY...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE STORMS IN NE NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE
TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE SEWD. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK AND EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX. IN GENERAL...THE HIGHER RES MODELS FAVOR A MORE WWD
PATH/EXTENT...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE NEWD TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OKLA...SKIRTING THE FAR SRN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS. WE CAN/T REALLY RULE OUT EITHER
CASE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
COMPLEX AND THAT IT WILL IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE/MOST IMPACT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. WE
EXPECT SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS COMPLEX AS PWAT VALUES ARE
VERY HIGH AND THE SRLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS POCKETS OF 3 INCHES
OR MORE. THERE MAY ALSO BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE RAINFALL. THE
REGION OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME WILL BE ALONG THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT IN BRISCOE COUNTY...INCLUDING CAPROCK CANYONS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE WASHES AND RIVERBEDS FEEDING INTO
THE RED RIVER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT...PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
PRETTY STABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
HIGH THU WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S NORTH...WITH LOW 80S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE COMPLETELY PASSED THROUGH BOTH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  WHILE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE AND NOW MAINTAIN SOME LINGERING
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE LUB
CWA BEYOND 00Z DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BEYOND 00Z TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM BEFORE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AS A
VERY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND PERHAPS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN
ORIGINALLY DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE BAD NEWS FOR THE REGION FOR TWO REASONS...AS RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME BY UNDER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE...AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY SOAR. IN FACT...SHOULD THE MORE DRASTIC
SCENARIO PLAY OUT IN WHICH THE CORE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY EASILY REACH INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. CONSIDERING THAT THIS SHIFT IN
THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY DRASTIC FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON INCREASING TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM
CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. AS
FOR RAIN CHANCES...OPTED TO LEAVE SCHC MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FOR SATURDAY EVENING...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. SHOULD
THIS TREND CONTINUE THOUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  60  82  64 /  70  20  20  10  10
TULIA         62  75  60  78  64 /  80  30  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     64  76  60  79  65 /  70  30  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     65  82  59  82  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  81  61  82  68 /  60  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  87  62  83  66 /  40  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  85  60  81  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  78  64  81  67 /  90  70  10  10  10
SPUR          68  82  62  82  67 /  60  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  84  65  85  70 /  60  60  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

23/24/23
322
FXUS64 KLUB 162052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING FROM
THE WRN OKLA PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN
BENDING EWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING SOUTH
NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AND
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN SOME INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN NRN LEA
COUNTY. UPPER-LVL NW FLOW IS STILL RATHER WEAK OVERHEAD...BUT
STRONGER WINDS ARE UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NM. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WE WILL SEE IN THE AXIS RUNNING IN-BETWEEN NRN AND SE NM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT WE DO EXPECT THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. WE ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUR SE COUNTIES...WHICH
LIE JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WILL
FAVOR MORE PULSE TYPE STORMS INITIALLY...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE STORMS IN NE NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE
TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE SEWD. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK AND EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX. IN GENERAL...THE HIGHER RES MODELS FAVOR A MORE WWD
PATH/EXTENT...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE NEWD TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OKLA...SKIRTING THE FAR SRN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS. WE CAN/T REALLY RULE OUT EITHER
CASE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
COMPLEX AND THAT IT WILL IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE/MOST IMPACT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. WE
EXPECT SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS COMPLEX AS PWAT VALUES ARE
VERY HIGH AND THE SRLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS POCKETS OF 3 INCHES
OR MORE. THERE MAY ALSO BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE RAINFALL. THE
REGION OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME WILL BE ALONG THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT IN BRISCOE COUNTY...INCLUDING CAPROCK CANYONS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE WASHES AND RIVERBEDS FEEDING INTO
THE RED RIVER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT...PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
PRETTY STABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
HIGH THU WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S NORTH...WITH LOW 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE COMPLETELY PASSED THROUGH BOTH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  WHILE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE AND NOW MAINTAIN SOME LINGERING
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE LUB
CWA BEYOND 00Z DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BEYOND 00Z TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM BEFORE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AS A
VERY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND PERHAPS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN
ORIGINALLY DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE BAD NEWS FOR THE REGION FOR TWO REASONS...AS RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME BY UNDER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE...AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY SOAR. IN FACT...SHOULD THE MORE DRASTIC
SCENARIO PLAY OUT IN WHICH THE CORE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY EASILY REACH INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. CONSIDERING THAT THIS SHIFT IN
THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY DRASTIC FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON INCREASING TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM
CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. AS
FOR RAIN CHANCES...OPTED TO LEAVE SCHC MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FOR SATURDAY EVENING...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. SHOULD
THIS TREND CONTINUE THOUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  60  82  64 /  70  20  20  10  10
TULIA         62  75  60  78  64 /  80  30  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     64  76  60  79  65 /  70  30  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     65  82  59  82  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  81  61  82  68 /  60  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  87  62  83  66 /  40  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  85  60  81  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  78  64  81  67 /  90  70  10  10  10
SPUR          68  82  62  82  67 /  60  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  84  65  85  70 /  60  60  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

33/16
465
FXUS64 KLUB 161811
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
111 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.AVIATION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS PER VIS SAT...LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS HAVE
JUST BEGUN TO SHOW SOME BREAKS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...GIVEN
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 60S NEAR
KCDS...HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES AND IS ABLE TO TAP INTO MORE
DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL FORCING...KLBB WILL BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL
CANT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ALONG OUTFLOW
FROM THUDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT IN KLBB AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT KCDS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

UPDATE...
AFTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF DELIBERATION WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MAKE
MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN-COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE SLOW
TO MODIFY SO HAVE TAKEN HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE
AREAS. WE ARE SEEING PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CAPROCK..ALTHOUGH
WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WARMING TEMPS WE EXPECT MUCH OF
THE AREA TO FILL BACK IN WITH A BL CUMULUS FIELD. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON.
ONE OF THE CERTAINTIES IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RICH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS ABOUT 1.5 INCHES ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. AND WE HAVE MODESTLY ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS A BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NEAR CAPROCK CANYONS
SEWD INTO SRN COTTLE COUNTY...BUT THE WIND FIELD IN THIS AREA IS
PRETTY WEAK AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY ERODE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. UNEVEN HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE WEAK CAPS IN
SPOTS...PERHAPS PREFERENTIALLY ACROSS THE WRN SPLNS...BUT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE CWA...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE VERY CONDITIONAL...TIED TO ANY DISCRETE CELLS WHICH DEVELOP AND
CAN TAP INTO LOCALLY HIGHER CAPES VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR...WHICH
AT THIS POINT WOULD APPEAR TO COINCIDE BEST ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE FROM PARMER COUNTY TO BRISCOE COUNTY. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SUPERCELL
DVLPMNT AND THE MOST STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE ZONES...WHERE
THE BEST LOW-LVL SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED. STILL...AN
ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND COULD EXPLOIT THE
BETTER LOW-LVL HELICITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT...WITH SLOW STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SPLNS THROUGH THE FAR SE
TX PANHANDLE...AND TO LOWER THEM A BIT OUT WEST FOR THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK/SMALL SHORTWAVE AND WILL
LIKELY EXIT THE CWA BY 11 AM OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING
IN FROM THE NW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

AVIATION...
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS STEERING VERY NEAR KLBB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY SKIM PAST KCDS IN NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN NEAR IFR LEVEL CLOUD
HEIGHTS ALTHOUGH UNABLE TO IDENTIFY LAYERS GIVEN THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
EASTERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPILL FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MORNING
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHAST WITH A BREAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES DURING AFTER NOON. CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REFORM
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY WITH GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
TO IMPACT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IMPROVES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING. THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS IS MUCH IN
QUESTION HOWEVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY...WITH
FAVORED ZONE CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXPECTED TO BISECT OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM THE REST BY LATER
TODAY. MOST SOLUTIONS DO NOT SPREAD THE BULK OF LIFT CLOSE TO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT IF NOT EVEN EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE...
HOWEVER...A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE GATHERING AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THIS MORNING. BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DISCUSSED...THIS MAY
PRESENT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LONG
AS ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
CONDITIONAL OF COURSE ON DEVELOPMENT. WE RAN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z THINKING A RISK FOR THE DISCRETE EARLY STORMS
JUSTIFIES FLOOD RISK EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD STEER CLOSE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
SHARPER WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY FAR APART ON THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS
EVENT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM ABOVE TUESDAY LEVELS THOUGH
MORNING SHOWER OR CLOUD COVER WILL MASK POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
LATE AFTERNOON BOOST ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE SHOULD THIN THE MOST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOKS TO BE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS A TOUCH HERE AS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE FOR SOME CONTINUED LARGE SCALE
LIFT AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALSO BRING A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM EAST OF THE STATE
LINE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BATTLING A
SUBSIDING AIRMASS AND SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVENING FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...BUT RISING HEIGHTS
WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
FAIRLY SPARSE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
INTO SATURDAY...BUT PERSISTENT HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS WARRANTED FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL FOLLOWING A COOLER PERIOD THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN THE 70S/80S.

SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A MORE DEFINITIVE DRY/HOT
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS EASTERN EXPANSION INTO THE
NATION/S MIDSECTION. WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE SPARED SOMEWHAT FROM THE
HEAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF RECENT RAINFALL...RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGITS CERTAINLY A FIRM POSSIBILITY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY IN SUBSEQUENT
DAYS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE ANTICYCLONIC CORE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY TIME OF PEAK INTENSITY.
ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WOULD ALSO
AID IN KEEPING ITS POSITION FARTHER WEST...BUT AN APPRECIABLE DOSE
OF MID SUMMER WARMTH CERTAINLY APPEARS IN THE OFFING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  76  59  83  63 /  70  20  20  10  20
TULIA         63  75  59  81  63 /  80  30  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     64  76  59  82  64 /  70  30  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     67  81  62  85  65 /  50  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       68  80  63  85  66 /  60  30  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  87  63  87  66 /  40  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  84  62  86  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     67  77  63  86  66 /  90  40  10  10  10
SPUR          71  83  64  86  65 /  60  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     73  89  66  89  67 /  60  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

99/99/55
767
FXUS64 KLUB 161641 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF DELIBERATION WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MAKE
MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN-COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE SLOW
TO MODIFY SO HAVE TAKEN HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE
AREAS. WE ARE SEEING PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CAPROCK..ALTHOUGH
WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WARMING TEMPS WE EXPECT MUCH OF
THE AREA TO FILL BACK IN WITH A BL CUMULUS FIELD. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON.
ONE OF THE CERTAINTIES IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RICH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS ABOUT 1.5 INCHES ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. AND WE HAVE MODESTLY ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS A BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NEAR CAPROCK CANYONS
SEWD INTO SRN COTTLE COUNTY...BUT THE WIND FIELD IN THIS AREA IS
PRETTY WEAK AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY ERODE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. UNEVEN HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE WEAK CAPS IN
SPOTS...PERHAPS PREFERENTIALLY ACROSS THE WRN SPLNS...BUT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE CWA...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE VERY CONDITIONAL...TIED TO ANY DISCRETE CELLS WHICH DEVELOP AND
CAN TAP INTO LOCALLY HIGHER CAPES VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR...WHICH
AT THIS POINT WOULD APPEAR TO COINCIDE BEST ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE FROM PARMER COUNTY TO BRISCOE COUNTY. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SUPERCELL
DVLPMNT AND THE MOST STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE ZONES...WHERE
THE BEST LOW-LVL SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED. STILL...AN
ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND COULD EXPLOIT THE
BETTER LOW-LVL HELICITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT...WITH SLOW STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SPLNS THROUGH THE FAR SE
TX PANHANDLE...AND TO LOWER THEM A BIT OUT WEST FOR THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK/SMALL SHORTWAVE AND WILL
LIKELY EXIT THE CWA BY 11 AM OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING
IN FROM THE NW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

AVIATION...
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS STEERING VERY NEAR KLBB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY SKIM PAST KCDS IN NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN NEAR IFR LEVEL CLOUD
HEIGHTS ALTHOUGH UNABLE TO IDENTIFY LAYERS GIVEN THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
EASTERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPILL FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MORNING
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHAST WITH A BREAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES DURING AFTER NOON. CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REFORM
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY WITH GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
TO IMPACT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IMPROVES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING. THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS IS MUCH IN
QUESTION HOWEVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY...WITH
FAVORED ZONE CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXPECTED TO BISECT OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM THE REST BY LATER
TODAY. MOST SOLUTIONS DO NOT SPREAD THE BULK OF LIFT CLOSE TO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT IF NOT EVEN EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE...
HOWEVER...A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE GATHERING AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THIS MORNING. BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DISCUSSED...THIS MAY
PRESENT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LONG
AS ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
CONDITIONAL OF COURSE ON DEVELOPMENT. WE RAN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z THINKING A RISK FOR THE DISCRETE EARLY STORMS
JUSTIFIES FLOOD RISK EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD STEER CLOSE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
SHARPER WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY FAR APART ON THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS
EVENT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM ABOVE TUESDAY LEVELS THOUGH
MORNING SHOWER OR CLOUD COVER WILL MASK POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
LATE AFTERNOON BOOST ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE SHOULD THIN THE MOST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOKS TO BE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS A TOUCH HERE AS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE FOR SOME CONTINUED LARGE SCALE
LIFT AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALSO BRING A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM EAST OF THE STATE
LINE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BATTLING A
SUBSIDING AIRMASS AND SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVENING FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...BUT RISING HEIGHTS
WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
FAIRLY SPARSE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
INTO SATURDAY...BUT PERSISTENT HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS WARRANTED FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL FOLLOWING A COOLER PERIOD THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN THE 70S/80S.

SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A MORE DEFINITIVE DRY/HOT
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS EASTERN EXPANSION INTO THE
NATION/S MIDSECTION. WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE SPARED SOMEWHAT FROM THE
HEAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF RECENT RAINFALL...RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGITS CERTAINLY A FIRM POSSIBILITY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY IN SUBSEQUENT
DAYS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE ANTICYCLONIC CORE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY TIME OF PEAK INTENSITY.
ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WOULD ALSO
AID IN KEEPING ITS POSITION FARTHER WEST...BUT AN APPRECIABLE DOSE
OF MID SUMMER WARMTH CERTAINLY APPEARS IN THE OFFING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  60  76  59  83 /  40  70  20  20  10
TULIA         85  63  75  59  81 /  50  80  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     86  64  76  59  82 /  40  70  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     89  67  81  62  85 /  30  50  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       88  69  81  64  86 /  40  60  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   91  67  87  63  87 /  20  40  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    90  67  84  62  86 /  20  50  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     86  67  77  63  86 / 100  90  40  10  10
SPUR          90  71  83  64  86 /  40  60  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     91  73  89  66  89 /  30  60  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

33
703
FXUS64 KLUB 161342 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
842 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SPLNS THROUGH THE FAR SE
TX PANHANDLE...AND TO LOWER THEM A BIT OUT WEST FOR THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK/SMALL SHORTWAVE AND WILL
LIKELY EXIT THE CWA BY 11 AM OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING
IN FROM THE NW.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

AVIATION...
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS STEERING VERY NEAR KLBB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY SKIM PAST KCDS IN NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN NEAR IFR LEVEL CLOUD
HEIGHTS ALTHOUGH UNABLE TO IDENTIFY LAYERS GIVEN THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
EASTERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPILL FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MORNING
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHAST WITH A BREAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES DURING AFTER NOON. CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REFORM
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY WITH GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
TO IMPACT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IMPROVES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING. THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS IS MUCH IN
QUESTION HOWEVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY...WITH
FAVORED ZONE CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXPECTED TO BISECT OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM THE REST BY LATER
TODAY. MOST SOLUTIONS DO NOT SPREAD THE BULK OF LIFT CLOSE TO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT IF NOT EVEN EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE...
HOWEVER...A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE GATHERING AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THIS MORNING. BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DISCUSSED...THIS MAY
PRESENT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LONG
AS ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
CONDITIONAL OF COURSE ON DEVELOPMENT. WE RAN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z THINKING A RISK FOR THE DISCRETE EARLY STORMS
JUSTIFIES FLOOD RISK EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD STEER CLOSE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
SHARPER WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY FAR APART ON THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS
EVENT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM ABOVE TUESDAY LEVELS THOUGH
MORNING SHOWER OR CLOUD COVER WILL MASK POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
LATE AFTERNOON BOOST ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE SHOULD THIN THE MOST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOKS TO BE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS A TOUCH HERE AS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE FOR SOME CONTINUED LARGE SCALE
LIFT AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALSO BRING A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM EAST OF THE STATE
LINE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BATTLING A
SUBSIDING AIRMASS AND SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVENING FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...BUT RISING HEIGHTS
WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
FAIRLY SPARSE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
INTO SATURDAY...BUT PERSISTENT HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS WARRANTED FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL FOLLOWING A COOLER PERIOD THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN THE 70S/80S.

SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A MORE DEFINITIVE DRY/HOT
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS EASTERN EXPANSION INTO THE
NATION/S MIDSECTION. WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE SPARED SOMEWHAT FROM THE
HEAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF RECENT RAINFALL...RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGITS CERTAINLY A FIRM POSSIBILITY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY IN SUBSEQUENT
DAYS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE ANTICYCLONIC CORE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY TIME OF PEAK INTENSITY.
ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WOULD ALSO
AID IN KEEPING ITS POSITION FARTHER WEST...BUT AN APPRECIABLE DOSE
OF MID SUMMER WARMTH CERTAINLY APPEARS IN THE OFFING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  60  76  59  83 /  40  70  20  20  10
TULIA         86  63  75  59  81 /  50  80  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     87  64  76  59  82 /  40  70  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     90  67  81  62  85 /  30  50  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       89  69  81  64  86 /  40  60  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   91  67  87  63  87 /  20  40  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    90  67  84  62  86 /  20  50  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     88  67  77  63  86 / 100  90  40  10  10
SPUR          90  71  83  64  86 /  40  60  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     91  73  89  66  89 /  30  60  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

33
161
FXUS64 KLUB 161205
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
705 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.AVIATION...
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS STEERING VERY NEAR KLBB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY SKIM PAST KCDS IN NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN NEAR IFR LEVEL CLOUD
HEIGHTS ALTHOUGH UNABLE TO IDENTIFY LAYERS GIVEN THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
EASTERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPILL FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MORNING
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHAST WITH A BREAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES DURING AFTER NOON. CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REFORM
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY WITH GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
TO IMPACT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IMPROVES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING. THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS IS MUCH IN
QUESTION HOWEVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY...WITH
FAVORED ZONE CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXPECTED TO BISECT OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM THE REST BY LATER
TODAY. MOST SOLUTIONS DO NOT SPREAD THE BULK OF LIFT CLOSE TO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT IF NOT EVEN EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE...
HOWEVER...A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE GATHERING AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THIS MORNING. BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DISCUSSED...THIS MAY
PRESENT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LONG
AS ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
CONDITIONAL OF COURSE ON DEVELOPMENT. WE RAN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z THINKING A RISK FOR THE DISCRETE EARLY STORMS
JUSTIFIES FLOOD RISK EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD STEER CLOSE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
SHARPER WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY FAR APART ON THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS
EVENT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM ABOVE TUESDAY LEVELS THOUGH
MORNING SHOWER OR CLOUD COVER WILL MASK POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
LATE AFTERNOON BOOST ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE SHOULD THIN THE MOST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOKS TO BE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS A TOUCH HERE AS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE FOR SOME CONTINUED LARGE SCALE
LIFT AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALSO BRING A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM EAST OF THE STATE
LINE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BATTLING A
SUBSIDING AIRMASS AND SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVENING FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...BUT RISING HEIGHTS
WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
FAIRLY SPARSE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
INTO SATURDAY...BUT PERSISTENT HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS WARRANTED FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL FOLLOWING A COOLER PERIOD THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN THE 70S/80S.

SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A MORE DEFINITIVE DRY/HOT
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS EASTERN EXPANSION INTO THE
NATION/S MIDSECTION. WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE SPARED SOMEWHAT FROM THE
HEAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF RECENT RAINFALL...RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGITS CERTAINLY A FIRM POSSIBILITY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY IN SUBSEQUENT
DAYS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE ANTICYCLONIC CORE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY TIME OF PEAK INTENSITY.
ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WOULD ALSO
AID IN KEEPING ITS POSITION FARTHER WEST...BUT AN APPRECIABLE DOSE
OF MID SUMMER WARMTH CERTAINLY APPEARS IN THE OFFING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  60  76  59  83 /  40  70  20  20  10
TULIA         86  63  75  59  81 /  50  80  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     87  64  76  59  82 /  40  70  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     90  67  81  62  85 /  30  50  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       89  69  81  64  86 /  30  60  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   91  67  87  63  87 /  20  40  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    90  67  84  62  86 /  20  50  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     88  67  77  63  86 /  50  90  40  10  10
SPUR          90  71  83  64  86 /  30  60  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     91  73  89  66  89 /  30  60  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

99/99/05
411
FXUS64 KLUB 160945
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
445 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IMPROVES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING. THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS IS MUCH IN
QUESTION HOWEVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY...WITH
FAVORED ZONE CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXPECTED TO BISECT OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM THE REST BY LATER
TODAY. MOST SOLUTIONS DO NOT SPREAD THE BULK OF LIFT CLOSE TO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT IF NOT EVEN EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE...
HOWEVER...A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE GATHERING AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THIS MORNING. BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DISCUSSED...THIS MAY
PRESENT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LONG
AS ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
CONDITIONAL OF COURSE ON DEVELOPMENT. WE RAN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z THINKING A RISK FOR THE DISCRETE EARLY STORMS
JUSTIFIES FLOOD RISK EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD STEER CLOSE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
SHARPER WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY FAR APART ON THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS
EVENT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM ABOVE TUESDAY LEVELS THOUGH
MORNING SHOWER OR CLOUD COVER WILL MASK POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
LATE AFTERNOON BOOST ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE SHOULD THIN THE MOST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOKS TO BE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS A TOUCH HERE AS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE FOR SOME CONTINUED LARGE SCALE
LIFT AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALSO BRING A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM EAST OF THE STATE
LINE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BATTLING A
SUBSIDING AIRMASS AND SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVENING FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...BUT RISING HEIGHTS
WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
FAIRLY SPARSE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
INTO SATURDAY...BUT PERSISTENT HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS WARRANTED FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL FOLLOWING A COOLER PERIOD THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN THE 70S/80S.

SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A MORE DEFINITIVE DRY/HOT
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS EASTERN EXPANSION INTO THE
NATION/S MIDSECTION. WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE SPARED SOMEWHAT FROM THE
HEAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF RECENT RAINFALL...RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGITS CERTAINLY A FIRM POSSIBILITY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY IN SUBSEQUENT
DAYS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE ANTICYCLONIC CORE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY TIME OF PEAK INTENSITY.
ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WOULD ALSO
AID IN KEEPING ITS POSITION FARTHER WEST...BUT AN APPRECIABLE DOSE
OF MID SUMMER WARMTH CERTAINLY APPEARS IN THE OFFING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  60  76  59  83 /  40  70  20  20  10
TULIA         86  63  75  59  81 /  50  80  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     87  64  76  59  82 /  40  70  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     90  67  81  62  85 /  30  50  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       89  68  80  63  85 /  30  60  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   91  67  87  63  87 /  20  40  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    90  67  84  62  86 /  20  50  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     88  67  77  63  86 /  50  90  40  10  10
SPUR          90  71  83  64  86 /  30  60  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     91  73  89  66  89 /  30  60  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

05/31
878
FXUS64 KLUB 152101
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
401 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
IT HAS BEEN A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY THANKS TO LAST NIGHT/S
FRONT. 3 PM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT HAD
WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SPLNS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SLOWLY CLEARING THOUGH...AND WITH SOME BETTER
HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WE COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS SHOULD BE FOUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONG
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH COULD IN TURN LEAD TO SOME MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
THINKING IS THAT THIS THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AND PRETTY SHORT-LIVED
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE LOW-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER WITH A
WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVERNIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A TSTM COMPLEX
MOVING SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES CLIPPING OUR NE ZONES...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER NORTH...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS
THAT AREA. HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP A MODERATE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
GOING AREA-WIDE.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL RETREAT/WASH OUT WITH MOIST SRLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IF
THERE IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY A MCS MOVING ACROSS IN WRN
THAT OKLA. SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD SET UP ACROSS THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE PER THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE TTU-WRF AND BE A FOCUS FOR
CI...BUT THIS OCCURRENCE AND LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. IN THE ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY...THE FORCING FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PRETTY NEBULOUS. WARMER
TEMPS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER CAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE/THICKNESS OF CLOUD COVER MAY PROVE TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BUT THIS WON/T BE FULLY FELT UNTIL
LATER WED EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A
LITTLE BIT DURING THE DAY WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THERE HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIVE HEATING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE BEST COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL OVERLAP. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IF IT IS REALIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE AXIS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  AS
THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE TOWARDS THE SSE...AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT FORCING FROM BOTH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
LIKELY TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF NE NM AND FAR NW TX...WHICH IS THEN LIKELY TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND LATER THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING DURING THE EARLY EVENING...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WILL QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS COMPLEXES...AND OVERTAKE WHATEVER
ISOLATED STORMS STILL REMAIN.  WHILE THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS /NAM...FAST AND FARTHER NORTH
VS. GFS SLOW AND FARTHER SOUTH/ IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION MOST
LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  GIVEN VERY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS EVENT...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY FAST PROPAGATION SPEEDS MAY
PREVENT WIDESPREAD TOTALS EXCEED TWO INCHES.  THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENT THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON PRODUCES LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IN THE SAME AREAS.  IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS.

THINGS WILL THEN LIKELY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN ALOFT.  GIVEN
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS/EMCWF SOLUTIONS...SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS EVEN REDEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS
IF THIS SLOWING TREND CONTINUES.  BEYOND THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  NOT ALL HOPE IS
LOST...HOWEVER...AS THE CORE OF THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WITH TIME EXPAND TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO FAR ABOVE
NORMAL...AND ALSO MAINTAINS NORTHWEST FLOW AND ALLOWS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.  AND...GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL QUICKLY REGAIN OUR LOST
MOISTURE DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT WONT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE PERIODIC SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  90  62  76  60 /  40  40  70  20  20
TULIA         62  86  64  75  59 /  40  50  70  30  10
PLAINVIEW     65  87  66  75  59 /  40  40  60  30  10
LEVELLAND     66  90  67  77  61 /  40  30  50  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  89  69  77  62 /  40  30  60  30  10
DENVER CITY   65  90  67  87  63 /  40  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  89  67  82  62 /  40  20  50  30  20
CHILDRESS     65  88  69  76  64 /  40  50  70  40  10
SPUR          67  89  69  80  63 /  30  30  60  30  10
ASPERMONT     68  91  73  81  66 /  20  30  60  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/16
036
FXUS64 KLUB 151744
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE PERSISTENCE OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL RUN THE TEMPO THROUGH 19 UTC...ALTHOUGH CEILING
REDUCTIONS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER. WE DO NOT EXPECT A RETURN OF
LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A CHANCE OF -SHRA OR -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO LOWER POPS THROUGH 18 UTC...AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED SWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. ALSO...NUDGED
TEMPS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO BREAK UP.
FINALLY...ADJUSTED DEW POINTS DOWN AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS
WORKING IN FROM THE EAST. AM HESITANT TO LOWER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE A VERY WEAK QPF SIGNAL FROM VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE. A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WITH NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE CAP WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT. LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE IN THE
BROADLY EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NM THOUGH WITH LITTLE LOW-LVL FORCING INDICATED IN OUR AREA.
INHERITED A CHANCE WEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD AND MADE ONLY A VERY SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/

AVIATION...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT CDS HAS BROUGHT DOWN CIGS TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING WHICH WILL BRING CIGS
BACK TO VFR. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AT LBB BY MID
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND BECOME VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS TODAY WITH THE GREATER CHANCE BEING AT LBB. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO THEY HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR THIS AM IS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF TREATS WITH STRATIFORM
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...A GRAVITY WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE VERY EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. THE
DISSIPATING SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ARE LEFT OVER FROM A
SHORTWAVE EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ARE BEING PRODUCED BY MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES EARLIER UNDER THE RADAR...PUN INTENDED. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING INTO A LINE AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE TOO FAR OF AN ADVANCEMENT AS THE AIR TO THE
WEST IS FAIRLY STABLE DUE TO THIS PAST EVENINGS RAIN. THE ONE
THING KEEPING THESE SHOWERS SUSTAINED IS OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT.

TEMPS IN THE MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY COOL COMPARED TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO BOTH THE RAIN AND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE COOLER BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS AS CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP SOLAR INSOLATION TO A MINIMUM TODAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
CO WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING SETTING US UP
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT RAIN. MODELS APPEAR TO HANDLE THIS
DIFFERENTLY WITH HIGHER RES MESOSCALE MODELS KEEPING PRECIP AT BAY
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS DEVELOPING A COMPLEX ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SINCE THIS IS MAINLY A SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
EVENT I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH HIGH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED CAPE...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE FAVORABLE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE ONGOING COME
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CONFINED EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT WHERE THE GREATEST
POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER DEGREE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING...ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST PROMINENT TIME FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH THE LONG MISSING
DYNAMICAL ASPECT. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP IN
PROVIDING STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AS AN UPPER JET STREAK ALSO ATTEMPTS
TO POSSIBLY ALIGN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.
LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL THUS ENSUE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
TO ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR INITIAL UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT TO ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IF STORMS CAN
FIRE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COMPLEX BEFORE LARGER SCALE FORCING
CONGEALS DISCRETE ACTIVITY...ALL SEVERE MODES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL FILTER IN THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT...LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES. SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 80S FOLLOWING POST-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S
THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HOLD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY PUT A DAMPER ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE THE CENTER OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER HIGH DRAWS NEARER BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 600 DECAMETERS WOULD LIKELY SPELL TRIPLE DIGITS
FOR ALL LOCALES...WITH PERHAPS SUNDAY FALLING JUST SHORT DEPENDING
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  85  61  76 /  30  50  50  60  30
TULIA         79  64  84  62  76 /  20  60  60  70  30
PLAINVIEW     80  65  84  63  75 /  20  60  50  60  30
LEVELLAND     85  66  88  66  78 /  30  50  40  50  20
LUBBOCK       83  68  87  66  77 /  20  50  40  60  30
DENVER CITY   87  66  91  67  83 /  30  50  30  40  20
BROWNFIELD    86  66  91  67  81 /  30  50  40  50  20
CHILDRESS     85  66  82  66  79 /  20  70  60  70  50
SPUR          85  66  88  68  79 /  20  50  40  60  30
ASPERMONT     88  68  91  70  84 /  20  50  40  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
645
FXUS64 KLUB 151622
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO LOWER POPS THROUGH 18 UTC...AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED SWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. ALSO...NUDGED
TEMPS DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO BREAK UP.
FINALLY...ADJUSTED DEW POINTS DOWN AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS
WORKING IN FROM THE EAST. AM HESITANT TO LOWER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE A VERY WEAK QPF SIGNAL FROM VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE. A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WITH NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE CAP WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT. LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE IN THE
BROADLY EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NM THOUGH WITH LITTLE LOW-LVL FORCING INDICATED IN OUR AREA.
INHERITED A CHANCE WEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD AND MADE ONLY A VERY SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/

AVIATION...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT CDS HAS BROUGHT DOWN CIGS TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING WHICH WILL BRING CIGS
BACK TO VFR. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AT LBB BY MID
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND BECOME VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS TODAY WITH THE GREATER CHANCE BEING AT LBB. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO THEY HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR THIS AM IS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF TREATS WITH STRATIFORM
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...A GRAVITY WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE VERY EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. THE
DISSIPATING SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ARE LEFT OVER FROM A
SHORTWAVE EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ARE BEING PRODUCED BY MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES EARLIER UNDER THE RADAR...PUN INTENDED. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING INTO A LINE AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE TOO FAR OF AN ADVANCEMENT AS THE AIR TO THE
WEST IS FAIRLY STABLE DUE TO THIS PAST EVENINGS RAIN. THE ONE
THING KEEPING THESE SHOWERS SUSTAINED IS OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT.

TEMPS IN THE MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY COOL COMPARED TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO BOTH THE RAIN AND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE COOLER BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS AS CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP SOLAR INSOLATION TO A MINIMUM TODAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
CO WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING SETTING US UP
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT RAIN. MODELS APPEAR TO HANDLE THIS
DIFFERENTLY WITH HIGHER RES MESOSCALE MODELS KEEPING PRECIP AT BAY
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS DEVELOPING A COMPLEX ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SINCE THIS IS MAINLY A SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
EVENT I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HAVE KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH HIGH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED CAPE...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE FAVORABLE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE ONGOING COME
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CONFINED EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT WHERE THE GREATEST
POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER DEGREE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING...ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST PROMINENT TIME FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH THE LONG MISSING
DYNAMICAL ASPECT. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP IN
PROVIDING STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AS AN UPPER JET STREAK ALSO ATTEMPTS
TO POSSIBLY ALIGN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.
LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL THUS ENSUE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
TO ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR INITIAL UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT TO ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IF STORMS CAN
FIRE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COMPLEX BEFORE LARGER SCALE FORCING
CONGEALS DISCRETE ACTIVITY...ALL SEVERE MODES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL FILTER IN THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT...LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES. SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 80S FOLLOWING POST-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S
THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HOLD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY PUT A DAMPER ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE THE CENTER OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER HIGH DRAWS NEARER BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 600 DECAMETERS WOULD LIKELY SPELL TRIPLE DIGITS
FOR ALL LOCALES...WITH PERHAPS SUNDAY FALLING JUST SHORT DEPENDING
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  85  61  76 /  30  50  50  60  30
TULIA         79  64  84  62  76 /  20  60  60  70  30
PLAINVIEW     80  65  84  63  75 /  20  60  50  60  30
LEVELLAND     85  66  88  66  78 /  30  50  40  50  20
LUBBOCK       83  68  87  66  77 /  20  50  40  60  30
DENVER CITY   87  66  91  67  83 /  30  50  30  40  20
BROWNFIELD    86  66  91  67  81 /  30  50  40  50  20
CHILDRESS     85  66  82  66  79 /  20  70  60  70  50
SPUR          85  66  88  68  79 /  20  50  40  60  30
ASPERMONT     88  68  91  70  84 /  20  50  40  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

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