Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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277
FXUS64 KLUB 081136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

.AVIATION...
EASTERN EDGE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE TEASING LBB ON/OFF THRU 1230Z OR
SO...BUT SHOULD OCCUPY THE TERMINAL WITH TIME BEFORE RISING TO VFR
BY 16Z-ISH. BRIEF FOG /PERHAPS DENSE/ IS POSSIBLE ON THE EDGE OF
THESE LOW CIGS...BUT LIGHT SWLY WINDS AT LBB MAY BE ENUF TO STAVE
THIS OFF. CDS SHOULD FARE BETTER WITH JUST SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MRNG. LIGHT SLY WINDS TO TREND 10-15 KNOTS
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INFRARED SATELLITE AT 09Z SHOWED LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND VALID
ATTEMPTS AT EXPANDING EAST FROM THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN
NEW MEXICO. RECENT METARS FROM HOBBS/SEMINOLE/ANDREWS ALL SHOWED
LIGHT FOG WITH PERIODS OF STRATUS IN THIS LIGHT BUT MOIST SLY
FLOW. THIS STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
DAYBREAK...BUT UNLIKE THIS WEEKEND THE SATURATED DEPTHS ARE VERY
SHALLOW THIS TIME AROUND SO INSOLATION AND BREEZIER SWLY WINDS
WILL MAKE QUICK WORK OF THESE PESKY CLOUDS BY MIDDAY.
NONETHELESS...MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN OUR FAR
SWRN COUNTIES TODAY WHERE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SURVIVE THE LONGEST.
ALSO...VERY MOIST SOILS IN THOSE AREAS FROM FRIDAY/S HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL STUNT DIABATIC WARMING A BIT.

OTHERWISE...A SHARPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP SQUARELY
OVER THE CWA TODAY IN BETWEEN LEE TROUGHING IN NERN NM AND A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SWLY WINDS COULD GUST
NEAR 30 MPH ACROSS OUR NWRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN BEFORE SCALING BACK
THIS EVENING. STEADY WLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO TRANSPORT RESIDUAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF MID-
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT EVEN AN OLD MAN WITH A HEART OF GOLD LIKE NEIL
YOUNG WOULDN/T MIND SOME CLOUDS UNDER TONIGHT/S HARVEST MOON.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A
LEE SURFACE TROF SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. SKIES SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES SOME. MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT SOME PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ONLY AREAS FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE ON THE CAPROCK WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING
RESULTS IN INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH MEAGER CAPE AROUND 300-500
J/KG. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER AND WITH THE
MODELS TAKING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. LEFT THE
POPS ALONE AS IT REFLECTS THE SITUATION WELL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS AS IF A
SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN WILL BE IN STORE. AN INITIAL FRONT WILL
ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS SHORTLY AFTER MID-DAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PULL IN SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO HELPING LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS. THE
ECMWF/CMC STILL HAVE A PRETTY STRONG SECOND PUSH ARRIVING FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE GFS GRADUALLY SAGS SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE BUT FEEL THAT THEY ARE OVERDOING THIS SOME AS BEST LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS
LEAVING US IN A LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION REGIME. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE SO WE COULD SEE CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT ANYTHING TO HEAVY.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS FOR FRIDAY CONTINUE TO COME IN A BIT COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. DID DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
MORE DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE. IF
CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THOSE COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REALIZED. ALSO OPTED TO LEAVE POP GRIDS
ALONE AS CONFIDENCE ON HOW PRECIPITATION FIELDS MAY EVOLVE REMAINS
LOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  63  89  64  82 /   0   0  20  20  10
TULIA         87  65  91  67  84 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     86  66  91  67  86 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     86  65  91  68  88 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       88  67  92  70  88 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  65  91  68  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    86  66  92  69  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     92  70  95  74  88 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          90  68  94  71  91 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     92  71  95  75  95 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93

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