Area Forecast Discussion
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094
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. TSTM CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 10 PCT AT
EITHER TERMINAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING QUITE STRONG GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26

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