Area Forecast Discussion
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689
FXUS64 KLUB 261137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY/TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY AND WARM EVENING/NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND PROGGED 700/850 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST COMPARABLE HIGHS TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LUBBOCK WILL TOP OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK...PERHAPS HITTING 100 DEGREES FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW AND 7TH IN 2014. ANY APPRECIABLE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW AIDED FRONT AND SLIM
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NE NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE LACKING AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH. MONDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE CWA WHILE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO NW AND BRINGS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE IN THIS REGIME BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SHOWER COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET STRENGTHS OVER THE
STALLING BOUNDARY...AND WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FALL AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT THOUGH AND OUR CWA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
PRIMARY QPF SIGNAL IN THE MED-RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS AND NW FLOW /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALOFT...IT WOULD BE
SURPRISING IF WE DID NOT SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY FOUND ACROSS OUR NRN AND NE ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TSTM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /FROM SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLA/...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW. THE ECMWF IS SHARPER WITH THIS WAVE AND
BRINGS ANOTHER COOL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR
WORKS IN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AND THUS GENERATES QPF OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADLY PAINT SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURS AND
EXTEND THEM INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       100  65  94  67  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
TULIA         96  67  95  68  87 /   0  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     95  67  95  68  88 /   0  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     98  69  96  70  92 /   0  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK      100  71  97  72  91 /   0  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   99  69  97  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  98  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS    103  74 101  73  91 /   0  10  10  20  30
SPUR         101  71  98  74  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT    103  74 100  75  96 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23

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