Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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019
FXUS64 KLUB 140853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT TO OUR SOUTHWEST BEING CENTERED
OVER SWRN NM BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO SET UP FROM AROUND BAILEY
COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE.  OVERALL SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE.

ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A QUIET WEATHER DAY THOUGH A THETA E
PLUME SHOULD BE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING
PRECLUDES EXPLICIT MENTION OF POP ATTM.  OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY BUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND
MAINTAIN ABOVE AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL TAP INTO MARGINAL MONSOONAL FLOW RESULTING
IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY
SUNDAY...CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

NO LONG DURATION/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALSO NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE...TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT ESPECIALLY SINCE REMNANT OUTFLOWS WILL
ALSO DETERMINE WHERE STORMS INITIATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  64  93  65  93 /   0  10  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  67  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  65  94  66  93 /   0  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     95  65  95  66  93 /   0  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       96  68  96  69  94 /   0   0  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   95  66  95  66  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  66  96  67  95 /   0   0  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  70 101  72 100 /   0   0  10  20  20
SPUR          98  68  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT    100  71 100  72 101 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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