Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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860
FXUS64 KLUB 181959
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  37  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         73  42  64  37 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     73  43  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  41 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  71  42 /  20  20   0   0
SPUR          79  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  75  46 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07

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