423
FXUS64 KLUB 151749
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1249 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR KLBB WITH A SURFACE DRY-LINE
EDGING WESTWARD TO NEAR KLBB BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE A
FOCUS FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. KCDS NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO COOL TO
MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...DUE TO BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KCDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIMARY
AVIATION THREAT WILL BE HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AT KLBB AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT KCDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WITH THAT
ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED TO AVOID FLYING
UNDER/NEAR PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW WHICH HAD SAT OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MUCH OF THE
LAST WEEK CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING A REGION
OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW MAY ONCE AGAIN CLOSE THOUGH
EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMIZED AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM PORTRAYS A 45KT
LLJ ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS LOOKS ABOUT ON
TARGET PER TTU SODAR DATA FROM REESE/HEREFORD/CHILDRESS.
PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS PROSPECTS FOR TRW ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR CWFA WITH DRYLINE BULGE NEAR
STONEWALL COUNTY BEING DEPICTED BY THE MAJOR NWP PLAYERS. THE NAM
IS ONCE AGAIN DEPICTING HIGH BASED CONVECTION BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
AM HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING OFF ON THIS IDEA GIVEN OUR LOCATION OF
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL EXIST
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL MAKE MENTION OF ISOLATED T OUT WEST
WHILE MAINTAINING SCHC ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. GIVEN CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG AND SINCE IT IS MAY AFTER ALL...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST. GOLF BALL HAIL AND
WINDS TO 60+ MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE THOUGH A WIDESPREAD
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM...
THE OPEN WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE NEARING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES DUE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST...THUS ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL TAKE
SHAPE...THOUGH THE EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS. THE NAM DISPLACES THE DRYLINE
PARALLEL WITH INTERSTATE 27...WHILST THE GFS SHOVES IT EAST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. THE ECMWF MORE OR LESS IS A BLEND OF THE SAID
SOLUTIONS. THE REASON FOR THE DRYLINE WESTWARD BIAS OF THE NAM IS
DUE TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE REGION...THAT IS NOT SHOWN TO
BE AS DEEP PER THE GFS. BY NIGHTFALL...THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO NEAR
THE BORDER AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH BY THE ECMWF
AS WELL /COURTESY OF PRESSURE FALLS/...VERSUS AN EASTWARD SURGE
PER THE GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY
APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. FOCUS
WILL NOW TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. SFC-CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2.0-3.0 KJ/KG AND ADEQUATE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UA RIDGE COMMENCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITED A CAP ACROSS EASTERN LOCALES BECAUSE OF THE SAID UA RIDGE.
THE NAM SHOWING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE
DRYLINE EARLY EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING FURTHER ILLUSTRATES
THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION /THE GFS IS VOID OF
PRECIP/. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING-EARLY NIGHT...COINCIDING WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP.
FRIDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL BE TRANSLATING OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS
IS PROJECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS
APPEARS VALID /15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/. CONCURRENTLY...A NW
PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THUS
PROMOTING A VEERING TO SW FLOW ALOFT. SFC WINDS WILL RESPOND BY
VEERING TO THE WSW ON THE CAPROCK AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FILTERING IN DRIER AIR. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...THE UA DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DESERT SW SATURDAY /FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS/ AND EJECT NE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/SOUTH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. A 30-35 KT LLJ
COMMENCING FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL TRANSPORT DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S NW
TO 60S SE SATURDAY MORNING THUS RETREATING THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING AS BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ENSUE. WITH WELL ABOVE
NORM TEMPS PERSISTING SATURDAY /MID TO UPPER 90S/ FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE ELEVATED. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WITH ADEQUATE
SFC-BASED CAPE...A MINIMAL CAP AND DECENT SHEAR SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
WITH THE SYSTEM NE OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL CREATE ANOTHER WARM DAY /LOW TO MID 90S/ AND ANOTHER DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT WILL ALSO SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO
JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANOTHER BROAD UA DISTURBANCE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL TO HIGH
PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
ATTM...GIVEN DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NOT MUCH
OF A COOL DOWN WITH THE FROPA...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S WITH
A FEW 90S BY TUESDAY. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO SRLY FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THE WARMTH WILL RESUME BY MID-WEEK /UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 94 58 96 57 / 10 10 10 0 10
TULIA 59 92 57 98 59 / 20 20 20 0 10
PLAINVIEW 60 96 61 98 62 / 20 20 20 0 10
LEVELLAND 61 97 61 98 63 / 10 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 62 98 63 100 66 / 20 20 20 0 10
DENVER CITY 63 97 59 96 62 / 10 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 62 98 60 98 63 / 10 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 62 92 65 98 66 / 20 10 20 10 10
SPUR 62 95 62 100 64 / 30 10 20 0 10
ASPERMONT 64 96 64 102 66 / 30 10 20 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
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