Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

951
FXUS64 KLUB 132203
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
503 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

SHORT TERM...
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VLY. SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN IN THE
25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE BACK IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WE EXPECT THE WIND ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM...WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. THE WINDS WILL REALLY DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET AND ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TONIGHT IN THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW.
WE EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THE
CAPROCK AND AROUND 40 TO 45 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE COLDEST TEMPS
FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PARMER AND BAILEY COUNTIES COULD BRING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FROST...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS
AT THIS TIME AS WE EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE LIMITED TO LOCAL
DRAINAGES. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP UNDER MOST SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH AMPLIFIED JET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
EXTENDING FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EXITING
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES...EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW...CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK AND DRY FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY DISTURBANCE
PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. WE REMAIN ON THE DRYSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURN
UPSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL BY LATE NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THATS A LONG WAY OFF YET SO JUST UPPED POPS TO JUST BELOW
MENTION TO HINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE MID 70S TUESDAY TO
MID 80S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 70S BEHIND
THE SECOND FRONT LATE THUR DAY AND GENERALLY REMAINING THERE INTO
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  71  43  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         39  73  43  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     39  73  45  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  72  42  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  73  46  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  72  44  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  73  44  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  76  47  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          42  76  46  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  76  46  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/55

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.