Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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955
FXUS64 KLUB 211733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER
LATER THIS EVENING...WELL TO THE WEST OF KCDS AND KLBB...WE WILL
SEE SOME CU DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES TODAY UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIONED WELL INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL BE CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRY TO INITIATE WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ALTHOUGH THE
EXPANDING RIDGE WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A WEAK AXIS OF HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES WILL BE WITHIN THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE THETA-E
VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS POTENT THAN OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL STILL GENERATE ROBUST SURFACE INSTABILITIES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALMOST NO FLOW
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE A ROGUE WIND GUST GIVEN NEARLY 40 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. MUCH DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL WEST OF
THE REGION IN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EXPANDING JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A
WAVE DIPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE MINOR
IMPACT THIS FAR WEST BENEATH THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE...WITH AT MOST A
MINOR LIGHT WIND SHIFT PERHAPS SETTLING SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY
MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AND ELONGATE AS A
TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM ROTATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THE EARLY WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHOVE A MORE VALID WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES INTO
CLASSIC FOUR-CORNERS PATTERN. SO...MIGHT EXPECT THIS WOULD PRODUCE
VALID COOLING AND PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SHOWER PROSPECTS
DAYS 8 AND BEYOND. UNTIL THEN...BULK OF EVIDENCE POINTS TOWARDS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. SMALL CHANCE
THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...
MAINLY LATE IN THE WEEK. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY DRY EARLY TO MID WEEK
AT LEAST...THOUGH SOLUTIONS AGREE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL IMPROVE
EASTERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH COULD THEN
TRANSLATE INTO ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  98  68  97  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         70  99  69  99  69 /  10   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  98  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     72 100  71  99  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  99  72  99  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   73  99  70  99  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73 100  71  99  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 103  74 103  76 /  10   0   0   0  10
SPUR          74 101  72 102  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 102  77 103  77 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/99/55

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