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612
FXUS64 KLUB 160851
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS DETECTED BY THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SODAR LOCATED AT REESE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH HAS HELPED A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOP.  THE TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE
LINE AND MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE THERE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  GUIDANCE HAS
COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  THE SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD SEE LOWER SPEEDS THANKS TO BEING CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS.  THIS POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS
THE NM/CO BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIDING IT EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COOLER AIR INITIALLY SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE AS DEWPOINTS
START TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NONE OF THE MODELS
GENERATE ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE LIFT INITIALLY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO LOW 50S IN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
MENTION FOR TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STILL BELOW MENTION...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES...
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN CURRENTLY IS A RELATIVELY BENIGN
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EMERGE OVER
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM AND REINFORCED BY THE CLOSER SECONDARY WAVE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOSE
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TAKE ITS
TIME ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE STARVED OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAP IMPROVING MOISTURE AS IT EMERGES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND CHILDRESS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORED SPOT FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN OUR AREA...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY /LIKELY FAVORING THURSDAY MORNING/.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST OF A BRICE TO PADUCAH LINE. IT WILL
BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FROPA...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING...PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WE DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL THEN
RETURN FRIDAY...AND ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP TO
AROUND MID-APRIL AVERAGES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN
TROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ACT TO BOOST PWATS TO LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN
SOME TIME...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING WITH THE UPPER WAVE...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THOUGH THE BEST WINDOW FOR
RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...THOUGH FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO DECENT RAINS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SLIM
RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY EASTER
MORNING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITHOUT ANY
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WARRANT POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY GET MORE INTERESTING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MORE CLASSIC SPRINGTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY LOCALLY...THOUGH
MUCH NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
HOWEVER...20 FT WIND SPEEDS WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  RED FLAG
AND EVEN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR THOSE PRODUCTS.  ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST UNDER CRITICAL
RED FLAG VALUES.  WIND WILL SLOWLY SWING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE USUALLY THE STRONGEST.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL GO WITH A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT INSTEAD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  39  62  39  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         77  41  61  40  73 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  43  62  40  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  42  67  43  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  44  65  43  75 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   77  44  69  44  74 /   0   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    77  44  69  45  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  60  44  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
SPUR          76  49  65  43  77 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  52  69  46  78 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23
602
FXUS64 KLUB 160451
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS. A 40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 500-600 FEET AGL
AS MEASURED AT THE REESE CENTER SODAR FROM THE WEST TEXAS MESONET
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN
15-20 KNOTS BENEATH THIS JET SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT A LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CALL...BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS IS A CLOSE CALL
AGAIN. JET WILL BE OVER KCDS IN THE MORNING AND WILL MIX OUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING THERE BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO THE WEST. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO BACK SOME TOWARD WESTERLY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE
RECENTLY-ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SSW WINDS
STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...IN TURN
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE RECORD COLD OF LAST NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS LOW TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT AND AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS. 12Z MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO SIG
CHANGES ATTM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAIR OF THE UPPER
TROUGHS MAY IMPINGE ON THE NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WOULD
EXPECT THAT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AS
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE CNTL PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WHILE
BRINGING IN A FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BUT SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...TEND TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONT. I HAVE KEPT THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THAT. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY AS RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP LOW AROUND SOUTHERN CA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE...FOR
THE MOST PART...ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES CLOSER.
UNLIKE WHAT THE STORY HAS BEEN LATELY...THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL NOT COMPLETELY PUSH OUT WHAT MOISTURE
THAT IS AVAILABLE AND WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS PUSHED OUT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE BACK IN THANKS TO QUICK RETURN FLOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROF APPROACHES STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP ACTIVITY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WHILE THE ECMWF PROVIDES PRECIP IN ONE SHOT
WITH THE MAIN TROF. AS THE NAM ONLY GOES OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...I HAVE GONE MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS UNTIL THE
FINER DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT AS TIME GETS CLOSER. GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP CHANCES I HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CHANCE.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ALL IS NOT
LOST...AT LEAST IN THE MINDS OF THE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
GREATLY ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW CLOSED AND TO THE NORTH. DESPITE BEING PLACED UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...UNLIKELY GIVEN NO
REAL AVAILABLE LIFT. THE GFS...AS IT HAS TRIED TO DO FOR QUITE SOME
TIME NOW...MOVES A DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE LOW IT PROVIDES CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF IT. WE SHALL
SEE...BUT I AM SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE MODELS TRACK RECORD THAT FAR OUT.
ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  75  38  57  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         38  75  40  58  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     38  75  41  60  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  77  41  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       40  76  44  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  78  42  66  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    41  78  44  67  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  74  49  61  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
SPUR          39  75  47  69  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     40  74  51  68  41 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05
919
FXUS64 KLUB 152309
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO THE WEST. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO BACK SOME TOWARD WESTERLY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE
RECENTLY-ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SSW WINDS
STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...IN TURN
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE RECORD COLD OF LAST NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS LOW TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT AND AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS. 12Z MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO SIG
CHANGES ATTM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAIR OF THE UPPER
TROUGHS MAY IMPINGE ON THE NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WOULD
EXPECT THAT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AS
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE CNTL PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WHILE
BRINGING IN A FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BUT SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...TEND TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONT. I HAVE KEPT THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THAT. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY AS RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP LOW AROUND SOUTHERN CA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE...FOR
THE MOST PART...ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES CLOSER.
UNLIKE WHAT THE STORY HAS BEEN LATELY...THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL NOT COMPLETELY PUSH OUT WHAT MOISTURE
THAT IS AVAILABLE AND WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS PUSHED OUT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE BACK IN THANKS TO QUICK RETURN FLOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROF APPROACHES STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP ACTIVITY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WHILE THE ECMWF PROVIDES PRECIP IN ONE SHOT
WITH THE MAIN TROF. AS THE NAM ONLY GOES OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...I HAVE GONE MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS UNTIL THE
FINER DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT AS TIME GETS CLOSER. GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP CHANCES I HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CHANCE.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ALL IS NOT
LOST...AT LEAST IN THE MINDS OF THE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
GREATLY ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW CLOSED AND TO THE NORTH. DESPITE BEING PLACED UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...UNLIKELY GIVEN NO
REAL AVAILABLE LIFT. THE GFS...AS IT HAS TRIED TO DO FOR QUITE SOME
TIME NOW...MOVES A DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE LOW IT PROVIDES CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF IT. WE SHALL
SEE...BUT I AM SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE MODELS TRACK RECORD THAT FAR OUT.
ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  75  38  57  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         38  75  40  58  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     38  75  41  60  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  77  41  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       40  76  44  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  78  42  66  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    41  78  44  67  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  74  49  61  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
SPUR          39  75  47  69  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     40  74  51  68  41 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
349
FXUS64 KLUB 151933
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
233 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO BACK SOME TOWARD WESTERLY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE
RECENTLY-ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SSW WINDS
STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...IN TURN
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE RECORD COLD OF LAST NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS LOW TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT AND AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS. 12Z MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO SIG
CHANGES ATTM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAIR OF THE UPPER
TROUGHS MAY IMPINGE ON THE NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WOULD
EXPECT THAT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AS
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE CNTL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WHILE
BRINGING IN A FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BUT SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...TEND TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONT. I HAVE KEPT THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THAT. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY AS RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP LOW AROUND SOUTHERN CA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE...FOR
THE MOST PART...ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES CLOSER.
UNLIKE WHAT THE STORY HAS BEEN LATELY...THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL NOT COMPLETELY PUSH OUT WHAT MOISTURE
THAT IS AVAILABLE AND WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS PUSHED OUT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE BACK IN THANKS TO QUICK RETURN FLOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROF APPROACHES STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP ACTIVITY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WHILE THE ECMWF PROVIDES PRECIP IN ONE SHOT
WITH THE MAIN TROF. AS THE NAM ONLY GOES OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...I HAVE GONE MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS UNTIL THE
FINER DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT AS TIME GETS CLOSER. GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP CHANCES I HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CHANCE.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ALL IS NOT
LOST...AT LEAST IN THE MINDS OF THE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
GREATLY ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW CLOSED AND TO THE NORTH. DESPITE BEING PLACED UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...UNLIKELY GIVEN NO
REAL AVAILABLE LIFT. THE GFS...AS IT HAS TRIED TO DO FOR QUITE SOME
TIME NOW...MOVES A DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE LOW IT PROVIDES CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF IT. WE SHALL
SEE...BUT I AM SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE MODELS TRACK RECORD THAT FAR OUT.
ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  75  38  57  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         38  75  40  58  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     38  75  41  60  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  77  41  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       40  76  44  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  78  42  66  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    41  78  44  67  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  74  49  61  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
SPUR          39  75  47  69  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     40  74  51  68  41 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
701
FXUS64 KLUB 151706
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1206 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS PERIODICALLY GUSTY ON THE ORDER OF 15G25KT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS ERN NM AND AS A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK
UP BY LATE MORNING. A 40-40 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 AM...TEMPS WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAPROCK...WITH THE WEST TEXAS MESONET STATION NEAR SILVERTON COMING
IN AT ONLY 19 DEGREES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ALSO
DROP BELOW FREEZING SOON AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 AM CDT.

SURFACE RIDING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE TOUGHING AS UPPER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FROM NW TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION. SW BREEZES
WILL RETURN AND TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION.
BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IT FROM
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN EMERGING OVER THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR
AVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT...SO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ON THE
CAPROCK DURING THE MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...AND WITH THE UPPER LIFT GRAZING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH...THERE IS A SLIM SHOT OF A SHOWER CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY CURRENTLY
APPEAR LIKE THEY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER... RESPECTIVELY...BUT WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THURSDAY/S FRONT WILL
GO BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE 00Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES IT DOWN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
EITHER CASE...IT WILL NOT GO VERY FAR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
RELATIVELY QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HOW COLD THE SOUTH
PLAINS GET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
NAM...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND ALLOWING LOWS TO DIP BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS. REGARDLESS...RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY
ENSUE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE
WEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT
IS PROGGED TO HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE
DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPID MOISTENING BY SATURDAY. AT
LEAST WEAK UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THE RARE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DID START POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY...EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA
AFTER 12Z AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT
EAST. WE CONSIDERED RAISING POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT
GIVEN THIS IS DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND MANY THINGS CAN YET
CHANGE...PLUS THE FACT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A 3+ YEAR
DROUGHT...WE DID NOT WANT TO RAISE HOPES T0O HIGH YET. SHOWER
CHANCES COULD PERSIST LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING HOW FAST
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY FOR NOW.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THUS...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD
BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
A DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SPLNS TODAY WITH BREEZY SWERLY WINDS THE RESULT. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. DUE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR AVERAGE...COUPLED WITH DRY AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  40  76  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         64  38  75  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  38  76  41  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  40  78  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  40  76  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  38  78  42  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    63  37  78  43  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     67  40  76  49  64 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          64  37  76  47  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  39  75  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
308
FXUS64 KLUB 151141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK
UP BY LATE MORNING. A 40-40 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 AM...TEMPS WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAPROCK...WITH THE WEST TEXAS MESONET STATION NEAR SILVERTON COMING
IN AT ONLY 19 DEGREES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ALSO
DROP BELOW FREEZING SOON AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 AM CDT.

SURFACE RIDING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE TOUGHING AS UPPER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FROM NW TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION. SW BREEZES
WILL RETURN AND TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION.
BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IT FROM
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN EMERGING OVER THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR
AVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT...SO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ON THE
CAPROCK DURING THE MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...AND WITH THE UPPER LIFT GRAZING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH...THERE IS A SLIM SHOT OF A SHOWER CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY CURRENTLY
APPEAR LIKE THEY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER... RESPECTIVELY...BUT WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THURSDAY/S FRONT WILL
GO BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE 00Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES IT DOWN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
EITHER CASE...IT WILL NOT GO VERY FAR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
RELATIVELY QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HOW COLD THE SOUTH
PLAINS GET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
NAM...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND ALLOWING LOWS TO DIP BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS. REGARDLESS...RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY
ENSUE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE
WEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT
IS PROGGED TO HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE
DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPID MOISTENING BY SATURDAY. AT
LEAST WEAK UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THE RARE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DID START POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY...EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA
AFTER 12Z AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT
EAST. WE CONSIDERED RAISING POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT
GIVEN THIS IS DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND MANY THINGS CAN YET
CHANGE...PLUS THE FACT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A 3+ YEAR
DROUGHT...WE DID NOT WANT TO RAISE HOPES T0O HIGH YET. SHOWER
CHANCES COULD PERSIST LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING HOW FAST
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY FOR NOW.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THUS...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD
BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
A DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SPLNS TODAY WITH BREEZY SWERLY WINDS THE RESULT. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. DUE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR AVERAGE...COUPLED WITH DRY AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  40  76  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         64  38  75  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  38  76  41  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  40  78  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  40  76  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  38  78  42  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    63  37  78  43  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     67  40  76  49  64 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          64  37  76  47  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  39  75  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

33
551
FXUS64 KLUB 150834
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AT 2 AM...TEMPS WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAPROCK...WITH THE WEST TEXAS MESONET STATION NEAR SILVERTON COMING
IN AT ONLY 19 DEGREES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ALSO
DROP BELOW FREEZING SOON AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 AM CDT.

SURFACE RIDING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE TOUGHING AS UPPER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FROM NW TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION. SW BREEZES
WILL RETURN AND TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION.
BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IT FROM
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN EMERGING OVER THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR
AVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT...SO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ON THE
CAPROCK DURING THE MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...AND WITH THE UPPER LIFT GRAZING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH...THERE IS A SLIM SHOT OF A SHOWER CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY CURRENTLY
APPEAR LIKE THEY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER... RESPECTIVELY...BUT WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THURSDAY/S FRONT WILL
GO BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE 00Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES IT DOWN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
EITHER CASE...IT WILL NOT GO VERY FAR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
RELATIVELY QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HOW COLD THE SOUTH
PLAINS GET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
NAM...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND ALLOWING LOWS TO DIP BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS. REGARDLESS...RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY
ENSUE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE
WEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT
IS PROGGED TO HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE
DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPID MOISTENING BY SATURDAY. AT
LEAST WEAK UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THE RARE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DID START POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY...EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA
AFTER 12Z AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT
EAST. WE CONSIDERED RAISING POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT
GIVEN THIS IS DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND MANY THINGS CAN YET
CHANGE...PLUS THE FACT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A 3+ YEAR
DROUGHT...WE DID NOT WANT TO RAISE HOPES T0O HIGH YET. SHOWER
CHANCES COULD PERSIST LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING HOW FAST
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY FOR NOW.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THUS...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD
BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SPLNS TODAY WITH BREEZY SWERLY WINDS THE RESULT. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. DUE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR AVERAGE...COUPLED WITH DRY AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  40  76  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         64  38  75  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  38  76  41  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  40  78  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  40  76  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  38  78  42  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    63  37  78  43  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     67  40  76  49  64 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          64  37  76  47  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  39  75  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

33/23
258
FXUS64 KLUB 150433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THUS FAR...TRENDS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR TO BE LARGELY RIGHT ON
TRACK. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT ARE
TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NWP ESTIMATES.  THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WARM BIAS MAY OCCUR IN URBAN LUBBOCK THOUGH UPPER 20S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE
APPEARS LIKELY. INVERSION HEIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP IN THE 500 TO 1500
FT RANGE THUS MAKING MITIGATION ATTEMPTS DIFFICULT FOR AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS EVEN WITH THE USE OF HELICOPTERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LAST EVENT OF THIS CURRENT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CYCLE WILL BE THE
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE RIDGE
CENTER BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER TONIGHTS
MINIMUMS WHICH SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD VERY DRY AIR...CLEAR
SKIES...AND WINDS TURNING MUCH LIGHTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. OPTED TO FLIP THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING VALID FOR
THE SAME AREA AND TIME FRAME. WE CONTINUE TO ARGUE THAT THE ODD
TETRAS SHAPED AREA IN OUR NORTHWEST HAS YET TO REACH THE START OF
THE GROWING SEASON...AS WE DEFINE IT BY THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST
FREEZE IN THE SPRING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS REGION IN THE FREEZE
WARNING EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITHIN THIS AREA. NOTE ALSO THAT WE DO NOT ISSUE A HARD FREEZE
PRODUCT AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH DO...ALTHOUGH OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS. TUESDAY WILL SEE
DECENT RECOVERY BY THE AFTERNOON AFTER SUCH A CHILLY START...WITH
HIGHS BACK MOSTLY INTO THE MID 60S. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN
FAIRLY BREEZY UP TO 15-20 MPH MANY AREAS AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE-SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WHILE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS WILL BE
SITUATED UNDERNEATH FLAT RIDGING AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND
IN BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRIVE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO VERY GRADUALLY RETURN
NORTHWARD FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE
SURGED BEYOND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THAT POINT. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW PROCESS... SLOW ENOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. WHILE MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INDEED REACH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A MILD
COLD FRONT COURTESY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE IMPROVED MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
AND...WHILE THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MILD IN COMPARISON TO THE
FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

FROM HERE...DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW KEY SIMILARITIES AND TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE...AS A BAGGY...COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD IN MULTIPLE PARTS.
MEANWHILE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WEAKENED THURSDAYS COLD
FRONT TO THE POINT THAT IT NO LONGER PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
TEXAS BEFORE WASHING OUT.  THIS LATTER TREND INCREASES THE
PROBABILITY THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
RETURN NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND POTENTIALLY AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THIS WAVE
REMAIN A RELATIVE QUESTION MARK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTHY OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  21  65  38  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  38  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  64  38  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  23  65  39  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  39  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  39  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  39  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  26  65  41  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  29  66  41  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26
493
FXUS64 KLUB 142322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LAST EVENT OF THIS CURRENT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CYCLE WILL BE THE
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE RIDGE
CENTER BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER TONIGHTS
MINIMUMS WHICH SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD VERY DRY AIR...CLEAR
SKIES...AND WINDS TURNING MUCH LIGHTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. OPTED TO FLIP THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING VALID FOR
THE SAME AREA AND TIME FRAME. WE CONTINUE TO ARGUE THAT THE ODD
TETRAS SHAPED AREA IN OUR NORTHWEST HAS YET TO REACH THE START OF
THE GROWING SEASON...AS WE DEFINE IT BY THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST
FREEZE IN THE SPRING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS REGION IN THE FREEZE
WARNING EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITHIN THIS AREA. NOTE ALSO THAT WE DO NOT ISSUE A HARD FREEZE
PRODUCT AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH DO...ALTHOUGH OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS. TUESDAY WILL SEE
DECENT RECOVERY BY THE AFTERNOON AFTER SUCH A CHILLY START...WITH
HIGHS BACK MOSTLY INTO THE MID 60S. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN
FAIRLY BREEZY UP TO 15-20 MPH MANY AREAS AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE-SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WHILE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS WILL BE
SITUATED UNDERNEATH FLAT RIDGING AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND
IN BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRIVE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO VERY GRADUALLY RETURN
NORTHWARD FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE
SURGED BEYOND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THAT POINT. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW PROCESS... SLOW ENOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. WHILE MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INDEED REACH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A MILD
COLD FRONT COURTESY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE IMPROVED MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
AND...WHILE THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MILD IN COMPARISON TO THE
FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

FROM HERE...DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW KEY SIMILARITIES AND TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE...AS A BAGGY...COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD IN MULTIPLE PARTS.
MEANWHILE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WEAKENED THURSDAYS COLD
FRONT TO THE POINT THAT IT NO LONGER PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
TEXAS BEFORE WASHING OUT.  THIS LATTER TREND INCREASES THE
PROBABILITY THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
RETURN NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND POTENTIALLY AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THIS WAVE
REMAIN A RELATIVE QUESTION MARK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTHY OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  65  38  72  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         22  64  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     24  64  38  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  65  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  64  39  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   27  64  39  82  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  64  39  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     28  67  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          26  65  41  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  66  41  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26
619
FXUS64 KLUB 142032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE LAST EVENT OF THIS CURRENT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CYCLE WILL BE THE
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE RIDGE
CENTER BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER TONIGHTS
MINIMUMS WHICH SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD VERY DRY AIR...CLEAR
SKIES...AND WINDS TURNING MUCH LIGHTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. OPTED TO FLIP THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING VALID FOR
THE SAME AREA AND TIME FRAME. WE CONTINUE TO ARGUE THAT THE ODD
TETRAS SHAPED AREA IN OUR NORTHWEST HAS YET TO REACH THE START OF
THE GROWING SEASON...AS WE DEFINE IT BY THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST
FREEZE IN THE SPRING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS REGION IN THE FREEZE
WARNING EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITHIN THIS AREA. NOTE ALSO THAT WE DO NOT ISSUE A HARD FREEZE
PRODUCT AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH DO...ALTHOUGH OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS. TUESDAY WILL SEE
DECENT RECOVERY BY THE AFTERNOON AFTER SUCH A CHILLY START...WITH
HIGHS BACK MOSTLY INTO THE MID 60S. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN
FAIRLY BREEZY UP TO 15-20 MPH MANY AREAS AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE-SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WHILE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS WILL BE
SITUATED UNDERNEATH FLAT RIDGING AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND
IN BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRIVE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO VERY GRADUALLY RETURN
NORTHWARD FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE
SURGED BEYOND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THAT POINT. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW PROCESS... SLOW ENOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. WHILE MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INDEED REACH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A MILD
COLD FRONT COURTESY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE IMPROVED MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
AND...WHILE THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MILD IN COMPARISON TO THE
FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

FROM HERE...DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW KEY SIMILARITIES AND TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE...AS A BAGGY...COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD IN MULTIPLE PARTS.
MEANWHILE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WEAKENED THURSDAYS COLD
FRONT TO THE POINT THAT IT NO LONGER PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
TEXAS BEFORE WASHING OUT.  THIS LATTER TREND INCREASES THE
PROBABILITY THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
RETURN NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND POTENTIALLY AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THIS WAVE
REMAIN A RELATIVE QUESTION MARK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTHY OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  65  38  72  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         22  64  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     24  64  38  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  65  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  64  39  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   27  64  39  82  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  64  39  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     28  67  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          26  65  41  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  66  41  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

05/16
052
FXUS64 KLUB 141810
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
110 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LAYER ON THE CAPROCK MAINLY NORTHWEST OF KLBB
WAS JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AND THINNING. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
REDEVELOP FOR ANY SINGIFICANT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. VFR THEN WILL
DOMINATE WITH THE STIFF NORTH WINDS TAPERING OFF TO NEARLY NOTHING
BY MID OR LATE EVENING. COLD NIGHT ON THE WAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLING OVERHEAD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REFORM
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RETURN SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WIND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EASING UP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
AND LIFT INTO VFR TERRITORY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY AT KCDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE HEADLINES.
SPECIFICALLY...WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY ABOUT
AN HOUR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES ON THE
CAPROCK...ASIDE FROM GARZA COUNTY.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
MAY OCCASIONALLY EDGE INTO LOW-END WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THIS
SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE AND THUS WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
EXPERIENCED HIGHS IN THE 80S YESTERDAY...LAST NIGHT/S STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO POUR INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS ON STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 08Z...THE COLD FRONT
WAS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...CUTTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE STRETCHED FROM MORTON TO
SILVERTON...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE IN LUBBOCK.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER DURATION SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS FOR THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...AND THIS WAS
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
20S COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WERE FLIRTING WITH AND OCCASIONALLY EDGING INTO LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
TEMPORARILY EDGE ABOVE THE 30 MPH THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IF THEY CONTINUE AS EXPECTED WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TURNING THE CORNER
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL HEAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS JUST
GRAZING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. SO
FAR...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN GRASSY
AREAS...WITH WET ROADWAYS. THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOO BEFORE DIMINISHING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PAST
12Z /WITH RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE A SLIGHTLY WARMER/. THUS...WE DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE 12-15Z
TIME-FRAME...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TO
NIL...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THEY
SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM WARMING
MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK...WITH A
FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A
CHILLY START TO THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A GREAT COMBINATION FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. MOST...IF
NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE START
OF THEIR AVERAGE GROWING SEASON.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...AND GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...WE/LL START A WARMING TREND AS SWERLY
WINDS RESUME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE 60S TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERSIST AND DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS IT DROPS SEWD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA...BUT A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE THIS MOISTURE BACK
OUT. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH IN THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE ONLY 50S IN
THE NORTH DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN CALI AND BAJA REGION...INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
OVER WTX. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS TX. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NEWD ACROSS WTX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING/WEAKENING. ONE
QUESTION OF IMPORTANCE IS HOW MUCH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN
ACHIEVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND HAS HIGHER FORECAST QPF
TOTALS IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXTEND THEM IN TIME. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY RELOAD BACK TO OUR SW AND PERHAPS SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  64  38  76  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         22  64  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     24  63  37  75  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     26  65  35  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  64  38  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   27  64  36  79  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  64  35  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     28  67  39  75  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          29  65  38  76  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     30  66  38  75  49 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

99/99/05
204
FXUS64 KLUB 141150
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EASING UP EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
AND LIFT INTO VFR TERRITORY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY AT KCDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE HEADLINES.
SPECIFICALLY...WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY ABOUT
AN HOUR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES ON THE
CAPROCK...ASIDE FROM GARZA COUNTY.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
MAY OCCASIONALLY EDGE INTO LOW-END WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THIS
SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE AND THUS WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
EXPERIENCED HIGHS IN THE 80S YESTERDAY...LAST NIGHT/S STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO POUR INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS ON STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 08Z...THE COLD FRONT
WAS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...CUTTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE STRETCHED FROM MORTON TO
SILVERTON...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE IN LUBBOCK.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER DURATION SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS FOR THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...AND THIS WAS
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
20S COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WERE FLIRTING WITH AND OCCASIONALLY EDGING INTO LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
TEMPORARILY EDGE ABOVE THE 30 MPH THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IF THEY CONTINUE AS EXPECTED WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TURNING THE CORNER
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL HEAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS JUST
GRAZING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. SO
FAR...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN GRASSY
AREAS...WITH WET ROADWAYS. THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOO BEFORE DIMINISHING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PAST
12Z /WITH RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE A SLIGHTLY WARMER/. THUS...WE DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE 12-15Z
TIME-FRAME...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TO
NIL...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THEY
SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM WARMING
MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK...WITH A
FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A
CHILLY START TO THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A GREAT COMBINATION FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. MOST...IF
NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE START
OF THEIR AVERAGE GROWING SEASON.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...AND GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...WE/LL START A WARMING TREND AS SWERLY
WINDS RESUME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE 60S TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERSIST AND DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS IT DROPS SEWD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA...BUT A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE THIS MOISTURE BACK
OUT. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH IN THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE ONLY 50S IN
THE NORTH DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN CALI AND BAJA REGION...INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
OVER WTX. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS TX. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NEWD ACROSS WTX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING/WEAKENING. ONE
QUESTION OF IMPORTANCE IS HOW MUCH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN
ACHIEVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND HAS HIGHER FORECAST QPF
TOTALS IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXTEND THEM IN TIME. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY RELOAD BACK TO OUR SW AND PERHAPS SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  22  64  38  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  37  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  63  37  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  26  65  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  36  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  29  65  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  30  66  38  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

23/33/23
916
FXUS64 KLUB 141114 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE HEADLINES.
SPECIFICALLY...WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY ABOUT
AN HOUR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES ON THE
CAPROCK...ASIDE FROM GARZA COUNTY.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
MAY OCCASIONALLY EDGE INTO LOW-END WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THIS
SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE AND THUS WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
EXPERIENCED HIGHS IN THE 80S YESTERDAY...LAST NIGHT/S STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO POUR INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS ON STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 08Z...THE COLD FRONT
WAS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...CUTTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE STRETCHED FROM MORTON TO
SILVERTON...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE IN LUBBOCK.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER DURATION SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS FOR THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...AND THIS WAS
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
20S COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WERE FLIRTING WITH AND OCCASIONALLY EDGING INTO LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
TEMPORARILY EDGE ABOVE THE 30 MPH THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IF THEY CONTINUE AS EXPECTED WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TURNING THE CORNER
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL HEAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS JUST
GRAZING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. SO
FAR...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN GRASSY
AREAS...WITH WET ROADWAYS. THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOO BEFORE DIMINISHING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PAST
12Z /WITH RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE A SLIGHTLY WARMER/. THUS...WE DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE 12-15Z
TIMEFRAME...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TO
NIL...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THEY
SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM WARMING
MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK...WITH A
FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A
CHILLY START TO THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A GREAT COMBINATION FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. MOST...IF
NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE START
OF THEIR AVERAGE GROWING SEASON.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...AND GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...WE/LL START A WARMING TREND AS SWERLY
WINDS RESUME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE 60S TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERSIST ANT DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS IT DROPS SEWD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA...BUT A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE THIS MOISTURE BACK OUT.
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH IN THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE ONLY 50S IN THE
NORTH DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN CALI AND BAJA REGION...INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER
WTX. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ON FRIDAY
WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS TX. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS WTX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING/WEAKENING. ONE
QUESTION OF IMPORT IS HOW MUCH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN
ACHIEVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND HAS HIGHER FORECAST QPF
TOTALS IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE KEPT POPS AT A SLIGHT CHANCES LEVEL FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXTEND THEM IN TIME. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY RELOAD BACK TO OUR SW AND PERHAPS SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  22  64  38  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  37  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  63  37  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  26  65  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  36  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  29  65  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  30  66  38  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

23/33
790
FXUS64 KLUB 140853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
EXPERIENCED HIGHS IN THE 80S YESTERDAY...LAST NIGHT/S STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO POUR INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS ON STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 08Z...THE COLD FRONT
WAS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...CUTTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE STRETCHED FROM MORTON TO
SILVERTON...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE IN LUBBOCK.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER DURATION SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS FOR THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...AND THIS WAS
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
20S COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WERE FLIRTING WITH AND OCCASIONALLY EDGING INTO LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
TEMPORARILY EDGE ABOVE THE 30 MPH THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IF THEY CONTINUE AS EXPECTED WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TURNING THE CORNER
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL HEAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS JUST
GRAZING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. SO
FAR...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN GRASSY
AREAS...WITH WET ROADWAYS. THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOO BEFORE DIMINISHING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PAST
12Z /WITH RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE A SLIGHTLY WARMER/. THUS...WE DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE 12-15Z
TIMEFRAME...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TO
NIL...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THEY
SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM WARMING
MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK...WITH A
FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A
CHILLY START TO THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A GREAT COMBINATION FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. MOST...IF
NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE START
OF THEIR AVERAGE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...AND GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...WE/LL START A WARMING TREND AS SWERLY
WINDS RESUME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE 60S TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERSIST ANT DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS IT DROPS SEWD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA...BUT A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE THIS MOISTURE BACK OUT.
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH IN THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE ONLY 50S IN THE
NORTH DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN CALI AND BAJA REGION...INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER
WTX. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ON FRIDAY
WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS TX. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS WTX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING/WEAKENING. ONE
QUESTION OF IMPORT IS HOW MUCH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN
ACHIEVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND HAS HIGHER FORECAST QPF
TOTALS IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE KEPT POPS AT A SLIGHT CHANCES LEVEL FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXTEND THEM IN TIME. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY RELOAD BACK TO OUR SW AND PERHAPS SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  22  64  38  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  37  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  63  37  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  26  65  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  36  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  29  65  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  30  66  38  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

23/33
380
FXUS64 KLUB 140503 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE GRIDS AND BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
ALSO NOT RAMPED UP AS MUCH AS WAS ANTICIPATED BUT INCOMING 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS KEPT WIND SPEEDS RIGHT AT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND TEMPERATURES
SHOUDL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING WHICH WILL TRANSITION THINGS OVER TO
SNOW FAIRLY FAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IF ANYTHING CAN
REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE.  UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

JORDAN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PALCE AT BOTH TERMINALS HOWEVER MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO PUSH TOWARDS BOTH KLBB AND KCDS.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW SOON THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE
IT TO THE TERMINALS AND HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY MVFR CIGS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. BREEZY AND GUSTY
NORTH WIND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AT BOTH TERMINALS
AND CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK OUT BACK INTO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEED WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY NIGHT.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST IN STORE. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH KCDS WITH STRONG SUSTAINED NORTH WIND. FRONT IS AT THE
DOOR OF KLBB AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SHORTLY. HOWEVER...WIND WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO INCREASE IN SPEED AT KLBB UNTIL A STRONGER
SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND SURGE WILL
LIKELY BUMP SUSTAINED SPEEDS CLOSE TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 KTS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. THIS WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME DUST BEING BLOWN ABOUT AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY
DAY AS WELL. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN BLOWING DUST AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FINALLY
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY TO LOOK AT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS WARM...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...SWITCHES OVER TO COLD...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR RATHER LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...DUE TO THE NEWRD TRANSLATION OF THE UA TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA AND
RESIDED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S/. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...AN OBVIOUS DRYLINE HAS SETUP. ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ASPERMONT. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BRUSH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN. DEEP ABL MIXING TO AOA 600 MB TAPPING INTO
25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN COMBINATION WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...HAS RESULTED IN SFC WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN /WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BRIEFLY HITTING ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS/. HENCE A FEW AREAS
COULD HAVE EXPERIENCED LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER LATE THIS
AFTN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH /IN ADDITION TO A 700 MB JET
MAX OF 30+ KTS/...WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO DO SO...A RELAXING GRADIENT HAS EQUATED SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS...WHICH CAN BE SEEN VIA 20Z WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE
READINGS /15-25 MPH/. TEMPS ARE BIT COOLER THEN RECENT DAYS GIVEN
THE PASSING DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
ENSUED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THESE TEMPS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE
DANGER AND THE CONTINUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING /FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE/ IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REASON FOR THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE BEING EXCLUDED FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS BECAUSE IT IS COOLER THERE WITH LIGHTER WINDS /10-15
MPH/ THAT HAVE VEERED TO THE N-NW...THANKS TO THE IMPINGEMENT OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HINT AT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH STRUGGLING CU-FIELDS NOTED ACROSS EAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE...THIS
IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.  STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WERE NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT...FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING
THUS FAR. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 3 HRLY
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB. HOWEVER PRESSURE RISES OF 10-14 MB
CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES AND WRN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY AOA 14/06Z. MAV SPEEDS SHOW A WEAKER WIND
SOLUTION /BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/ VERSUS A BONA-FIDE WIND
ADVISORY PER THE MAV. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE ANTICIPATED
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 30 MPH OR
SO WIND SPEEDS /NEARING OR EQUATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. HAVE
THEREFORE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
/THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE OFF THE CAPROCK/ COMMENCING LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND ENDING AT 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE WIND
UNFORTUNATELY COMES THE DUST. LACK OF A VISIBLE HABOOB FEATURE LATE
THIS AFTN DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL NOT FORM LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...SO PLEASE STAY
ALERT.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS PASSING UA DISTURBANCE...IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SEEN DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EAST NEW
MEXICO/WRN PANHANDLES/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE THANKS TO THE FROPA /850 MB TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C/...SOUNDING PROFILES ARE SHOWN TO COOL RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW FREEZING AOA 14/09Z. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS PLAUSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION
ATTM. WITH RECENT WARM DAYS...THE ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MELT ON RELATIVELY WARM
ROADWAYS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS FREEZING/BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
LUBBOCK...VERSUS LOWER TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE
ALREADY PASSED THE AVG LAST FREEZE DATE FOR A FEW COUNTIES WHICH ARE
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...COCHRAN AND HOCKLEY COUNTIES...WHERE COUNTIES
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST HAVE YET TO REACH THEIR AVG LAST FREEZE DATE.
SINCE THE SAID COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH
TO A FREEZE WARNING. TOMORROW...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE
AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL /HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S/. ANY LINGERING LIQUID OR
FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
COMMENCES TO EXIT THE REGION. /29

LONG TERM...
CONCERNS EASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH COLD AIR SPILLING IN WITH AN APPROXIMATE 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ATOP THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
COOLED A BIT MORE SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE
ALL ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
COUNTIES...BEST CHANCE FOR HARD FREEZE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE
CAPROCK. LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REFORMING TUESDAY WILL
HASTEN WARMING AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES. A LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH EXPANDS A BIT TO
THE EAST...WITH BETTER WARMING...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIGHT
RECOVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S OR LOW 30S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WEDNESDAY SEEMS MOST LIKELY DAY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER ROLLING PLAINS. THE NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON WILL
BE DIFFERING PROJECTIONS OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH RE-CARVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND ALSO A COLD FRONT DRIVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SUCH IS THE GFS
COLD FRONT THAT IT WOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
DRAGGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS LESS HARSH WITH THIS COLD FRONT STALLING IT NEAR I-10
FRIDAY...AND MOISTURE IN BETTER POSITION TO RETURN NORTHWEST.
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING NEXT FRIDAY BEFORE THE GFS PUSHES IN A
QUICKER OPEN WAVE NEXT SATURDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL BREAKS
DOWN NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY INVOLVING THE COMPLICATED INFLUENCE
OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WE HAVE BOUGHT INTO AT LEAST MARGINAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASE LATE NEXT SATURDAY TO BOOST CONFIDENCE INTO
LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER RANGE. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAS PROMOTED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHICH CAUSED WESTERLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LATE THIS AFTN...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECLINED A
BIT TO 15-25 MPH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THUS CAUSING A SLIGHTLY RELAXED
GRADIENT. NONETHELESS...20-FOOT WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY LATE THIS
AFTN. WRLY WINDS HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO WARM SOME 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORM WHICH IN TURN...PLUMMETS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. DRY...BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS HAS RESULTED IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
NEAR/SURPASS THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING /WHICH
AFFECTS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/ WHICH IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FOR AREAS
ON THE CAPROCK WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  22  65  38 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  44  22  65  38 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  45  24  64  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  49  26  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  48  26  65  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  52  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  50  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          37  51  29  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  53  30  66  38 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ028>030-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

14/93/14
003
FXUS64 KLUB 132321 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST IN STORE. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH KCDS WITH STRONG SUSTAINED NORTH WIND. FRONT IS AT THE
DOOR OF KLBB AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SHORTLY. HOWEVER...WIND WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO INCREASE IN SPEED AT KLBB UNTIL A STRONGER
SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND SURGE WILL
LIKELY BUMP SUSTAINED SPEEDS CLOSE TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 KTS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. THIS WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME DUST BEING BLOWN ABOUT AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY
DAY AS WELL. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN BLOWING DUST AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FINALLY
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY TO LOOK AT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS WARM...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...SWITCHES OVER TO COLD...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR RATHER LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...DUE TO THE NEWRD TRANSLATION OF THE UA TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA AND
RESIDED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S/. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...AN OBVIOUS DRYLINE HAS SETUP. ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ASPERMONT. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BRUSH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN. DEEP ABL MIXING TO AOA 600 MB TAPPING INTO
25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN COMBINATION WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...HAS RESULTED IN SFC WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN /WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BRIEFLY HITTING ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS/. HENCE A FEW AREAS
COULD HAVE EXPERIENCED LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER LATE THIS
AFTN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH /IN ADDITION TO A 700 MB JET
MAX OF 30+ KTS/...WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO DO SO...A RELAXING GRADIENT HAS EQUATED SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS...WHICH CAN BE SEEN VIA 20Z WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE
READINGS /15-25 MPH/. TEMPS ARE BIT COOLER THEN RECENT DAYS GIVEN
THE PASSING DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
ENSUED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THESE TEMPS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE
DANGER AND THE CONTINUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING /FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE/ IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REASON FOR THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE BEING EXCLUDED FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS BECAUSE IT IS COOLER THERE WITH LIGHTER WINDS /10-15
MPH/ THAT HAVE VEERED TO THE N-NW...THANKS TO THE IMPINGEMENT OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HINT AT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH STRUGGLING CU-FIELDS NOTED ACROSS EAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE...THIS
IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.  STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WERE NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT...FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING
THUS FAR. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 3 HRLY
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB. HOWEVER PRESSURE RISES OF 10-14 MB
CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES AND WRN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY AOA 14/06Z. MAV SPEEDS SHOW A WEAKER WIND
SOLUTION /BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/ VERSUS A BONA-FIDE WIND
ADVISORY PER THE MAV. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE ANTICIPATED
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 30 MPH OR
SO WIND SPEEDS /NEARING OR EQUATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. HAVE
THEREFORE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
/THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE OFF THE CAPROCK/ COMMENCING LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND ENDING AT 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE WIND
UNFORTUNATELY COMES THE DUST. LACK OF A VISIBLE HABOOB FEATURE LATE
THIS AFTN DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL NOT FORM LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...SO PLEASE STAY
ALERT.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS PASSING UA DISTURBANCE...IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SEEN DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EAST NEW
MEXICO/WRN PANHANDLES/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE THANKS TO THE FROPA /850 MB TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C/...SOUNDING PROFILES ARE SHOWN TO COOL RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW FREEZING AOA 14/09Z. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS PLAUSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION
ATTM. WITH RECENT WARM DAYS...THE ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MELT ON RELATIVELY WARM
ROADWAYS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS FREEZING/BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
LUBBOCK...VERSUS LOWER TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE
ALREADY PASSED THE AVG LAST FREEZE DATE FOR A FEW COUNTIES WHICH ARE
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...COCHRAN AND HOCKLEY COUNTIES...WHERE COUNTIES
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST HAVE YET TO REACH THEIR AVG LAST FREEZE DATE.
SINCE THE SAID COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH
TO A FREEZE WARNING. TOMORROW...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE
AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL /HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S/. ANY LINGERING LIQUID OR
FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
COMMENCES TO EXIT THE REGION. /29

LONG TERM...
CONCERNS EASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH COLD AIR SPILLING IN WITH AN APPROXIMATE 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ATOP THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
COOLED A BIT MORE SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE
ALL ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
COUNTIES...BEST CHANCE FOR HARD FREEZE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE
CAPROCK. LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REFORMING TUESDAY WILL
HASTEN WARMING AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES. A LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH EXPANDS A BIT TO
THE EAST...WITH BETTER WARMING...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIGHT
RECOVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S OR LOW 30S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WEDNESDAY SEEMS MOST LIKELY DAY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER ROLLING PLAINS. THE NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON WILL
BE DIFFERING PROJECTIONS OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH RE-CARVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND ALSO A COLD FRONT DRIVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SUCH IS THE GFS
COLD FRONT THAT IT WOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
DRAGGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS LESS HARSH WITH THIS COLD FRONT STALLING IT NEAR I-10
FRIDAY...AND MOISTURE IN BETTER POSITION TO RETURN NORTHWEST.
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING NEXT FRIDAY BEFORE THE GFS PUSHES IN A
QUICKER OPEN WAVE NEXT SATURDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL BREAKS
DOWN NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY INVOLVING THE COMPLICATED INFLUENCE
OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WE HAVE BOUGHT INTO AT LEAST MARGINAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASE LATE NEXT SATURDAY TO BOOST CONFIDENCE INTO
LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER RANGE. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAS PROMOTED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHICH CAUSED WESTERLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LATE THIS AFTN...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECLINED A
BIT TO 15-25 MPH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THUS CAUSING A SLIGHTLY RELAXED
GRADIENT. NONETHELESS...20-FOOT WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY LATE THIS
AFTN. WRLY WINDS HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO WARM SOME 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORM WHICH IN TURN...PLUMMETS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. DRY...BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS HAS RESULTED IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
NEAR/SURPASS THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING /WHICH
AFFECTS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/ WHICH IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FOR AREAS
ON THE CAPROCK WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  22  65  38 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  44  22  65  38 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  45  24  64  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  49  26  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  48  26  65  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  52  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  50  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          37  51  29  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  53  30  66  38 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>044.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

14/93/14
876
FXUS64 KLUB 132040
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PLENTY TO LOOK AT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS WARM...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...SWITCHES OVER TO COLD...BREEZY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR RATHER LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...DUE TO THE NEWRD TRANSLATION OF THE UA TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA AND
RESIDED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S/. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...AN OBVIOUS DRYLINE HAS SETUP. ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ASPERMONT. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BRUSH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN. DEEP ABL MIXING TO AOA 600 MB TAPPING INTO
25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN COMBINATION WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...HAS RESULTED IN SFC WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN /WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BRIEFLY HITTING ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS/. HENCE A FEW AREAS
COULD HAVE EXPERIENCED LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER LATE THIS
AFTN...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH /IN ADDITION TO A 700 MB JET
MAX OF 30+ KTS/...WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO DO SO...A RELAXING GRADIENT HAS EQUATED SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS...WHICH CAN BE SEEN VIA 20Z WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE
READINGS /15-25 MPH/. TEMPS ARE BIT COOLER THEN RECENT DAYS GIVEN
THE PASSING DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
ENSUED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THESE TEMPS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE
DANGER AND THE CONTINUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING /FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE/ IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REASON FOR THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE BEING EXCLUDED FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS BECAUSE IT IS COOLER THERE WITH LIGHTER WINDS /10-15
MPH/ THAT HAVE VEERED TO THE N-NW...THANKS TO THE IMPINGEMENT OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HINT AT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH STRUGGLING CU-FIELDS NOTED ACROSS EAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE...THIS
IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.  STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WERE NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT...FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING
THUS FAR. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 3 HRLY
PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB. HOWEVER PRESSURE RISES OF 10-14 MB
CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES AND WRN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY AOA 14/06Z. MAV SPEEDS SHOW A WEAKER WIND
SOLUTION /BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/ VERSUS A BONA-FIDE WIND
ADVISORY PER THE MAV. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE ANTICIPATED
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 30 MPH OR
SO WIND SPEEDS /NEARING OR EQUATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. HAVE
THEREFORE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
/THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE OFF THE CAPROCK/ COMMENCING LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND ENDING AT 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE WIND
UNFORTUNATELY COMES THE DUST. LACK OF A VISIBLE HABOOB FEATURE LATE
THIS AFTN DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL NOT FORM LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...SO PLEASE STAY
ALERT.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS PASSING UA DISTURBANCE...IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SEEN DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EAST NEW
MEXICO/WRN PANHANDLES/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE THANKS TO THE FROPA /850 MB TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C/...SOUNDING PROFILES ARE SHOWN TO COOL RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW FREEZING AOA 14/09Z. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS PLAUSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION
ATTM. WITH RECENT WARM DAYS...THE ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MELT ON RELATIVELY WARM
ROADWAYS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS FREEZING/BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
LUBBOCK...VERSUS LOWER TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE
ALREADY PASSED THE AVG LAST FREEZE DATE FOR A FEW COUNTIES WHICH ARE
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...COCHRAN AND HOCKLEY COUNTIES...WHERE COUNTIES
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST HAVE YET TO REACH THEIR AVG LAST FREEZE DATE.
SINCE THE SAID COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH
TO A FREEZE WARNING. TOMORROW...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE
AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL /HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S/. ANY LINGERING LIQUID OR
FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/
COMMENCES TO EXIT THE REGION. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONCERNS EASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH COLD AIR SPILLING IN WITH AN APPROXIMATE 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ATOP THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
COOLED A BIT MORE SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE
ALL ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
COUNTIES...BEST CHANCE FOR HARD FREEZE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE
CAPROCK. LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REFORMING TUESDAY WILL
HASTEN WARMING AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES. A LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH EXPANDS A BIT TO
THE EAST...WITH BETTER WARMING...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIGHT
RECOVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S OR LOW 30S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WEDNESDAY SEEMS MOST LIKELY DAY FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER ROLLING PLAINS. THE NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON WILL
BE DIFFERING PROJECTIONS OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH RE-CARVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND ALSO A COLD FRONT DRIVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SUCH IS THE GFS
COLD FRONT THAT IT WOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
DRAGGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS LESS HARSH WITH THIS COLD FRONT STALLING IT NEAR I-10
FRIDAY...AND MOISTURE IN BETTER POSITION TO RETURN NORTHWEST.
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING NEXT FRIDAY BEFORE THE GFS PUSHES IN A
QUICKER OPEN WAVE NEXT SATURDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL BREAKS
DOWN NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY INVOLVING THE COMPLICATED INFLUENCE
OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH AND TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WE HAVE BOUGHT INTO AT LEAST MARGINAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASE LATE NEXT SATURDAY TO BOOST CONFIDENCE INTO
LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER RANGE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAS PROMOTED A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHICH CAUSED WESTERLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH EARLIER
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LATE THIS AFTN...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECLINED A
BIT TO 15-25 MPH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THUS CAUSING A SLIGHTLY RELAXED
GRADIENT. NONETHELESS...20-FOOT WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY LATE THIS
AFTN. WRLY WINDS HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO WARM SOME 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORM WHICH IN TURN...PLUMMETS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. DRY...BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS HAS RESULTED IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
NEAR/SURPASS THE 3-HRLY TIME CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
ALREADY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING /WHICH
AFFECTS ALL BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/ WHICH IS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FOR AREAS
ON THE CAPROCK WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  22  65  38 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  44  22  65  38 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  45  24  64  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  49  26  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  48  26  65  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  52  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  50  27  65  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          37  51  29  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  53  30  66  38 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>044.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

29/05
747
FXUS64 KLUB 131722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS WERE OCCURRING AT
BOTH TAF SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BECOME
RESTRICTED AS OF YET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CRITERIA
DROPS TO VFR LATER THIS AFTN DUE TO BLDU. MAY SEE A LULL IN WIND
SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT KLBB...HOWEVER
A RATHER BREEZY COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NEARING KCDS INITIALLY...TO ACROSS KLBB LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND SPEEDS WILL RAMP BACK
INTO THE 20-27 KT RANGE BY TONIGHT /HIGHEST SPEEDS PROJECTED TO BE
AT KLBB/. SHOULD SEE VIS GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM VFR TO MVFR AT
KLBB THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT DUE TO THICKENING DUST...BUT COULD GO
LOWER THAN THAT IF A HABOOB FORMS. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE...THOUGH
STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY /20-23 KTS/. FURTHERMORE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER
OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...LIGHT PRECIP/WINTRY
PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH -SHRA/-DZ COULD AFFECT KCDS OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
WIND/DUST AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND WIND/DUST...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LEAD
TROUGH HAS DRAWN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE EVEN SKIRTED
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...DRY LOW-LEVELS HAVE KEEP PRECIPITATION TO
A MINIMUM...WITH NO WTM SITES REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO OCCASIONALLY TAP A
50+ KNOT LLJ IN PLACE...RESULTING IN PERIODIC STRONG SURFACE WIND
GUSTS /40-50 MPH/ AND BLOWING DUST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE LEAD
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND CLOUD COVER QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. A SFC
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
/SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP
THE SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. SOME DEEP LAYER COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
UPPER TROUGH WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-70S NEAR FRIONA TO NEAR 90 AT ASPERMONT.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
EDGE INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS EVENING. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
8-10+ MB RAISE THE CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO LOFT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF
DUST...PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE AIDED BY ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF ANOTHER
HABOOB AFFECTING THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LARGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA /ON THE CAPROCK/ AND EASTERN NM...AND WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS. THAT SAID...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA /OFF THE CAPROCK/ AS A 40-45 KNOT LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THERE. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD BET A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON
THE PARTICULARS. MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR AND A STRATUS DECK WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT...WITH LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXPECT FOR A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST. IT DOES APPEAR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK COULD EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR COCHRAN...HOCKLEY.... LAMB...HALE AND FLOYD
COUNTIES. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO
REACH THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE...SO WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY
FREEZE RELATED HEADLINES.

ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE LOCALLY...BUT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN MIX WITH OR CHANCE OVER TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE COOLS...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12
UTC...BUT THE LATEST TTU-WRF DOES INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 15 UTC...SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. WE/LL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE
COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND OF COURSE A VERY DRY
AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE PROVIDE NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-FRZG TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY
DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF THE FAR
TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN/T REALLY BEGUN YET.
AFTER THE CHILLY START...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND
THEN 70S WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE THE FIRE DANGER INCREASE
AS LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH AS WELL. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY SLIM AS MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN BEFOREHAND. BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS THU AND FRI...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND WRN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MAKE FOR
AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS IT WILL TAKE A LOWER
LATITUDE TRACK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A BETTER COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE/VE KEPT OUR
POPS JUST SHY OF MENTION IN THE DAY 7/DAY 8 PERIOD...HOPING THAT
FUTURE RUNS WILL GIVE US THE CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTIONABLE
POPS.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION.
THE WORST COMBINATION OF WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH AT 20
FEET/ AND HUMIDITIES /BOTTOMING OUT AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY TO 8 PM. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE AT MOST SPOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES. THIS SHARP WIND SHIFT COULD
ADVERSELY AFFECT ANY ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS.

BREEZY SW WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WITH A PERSISTING DROUGHT AND DRY AIRMASS...FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AGAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE TOO COOL TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...BUT MAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  45  25  66  39 /  30  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  46  25  66  41 /  20  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  47  26  65  40 /  20  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     34  49  27  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  49  28  66  41 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  52  28  66  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    36  51  28  67  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  51  30  67  42 /  10  20   0   0   0
SPUR          38  52  31  66  42 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     41  55  33  67  43 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>042.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ027>044.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

&&

$$

29
133
FXUS64 KLUB 131147
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE FURTHER BY MID-MORNING. THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT
SOME BLOWING DUST AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG THROUGH KCDS AROUND 20Z WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AT KLBB THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH SOMETIME AROUND 03Z. THIS
FRONT COULD BRING MORE BLOWING DUST IN ADDITION TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE AN AWW COULD BE NEEDED FOR
KLBB TODAY...WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ONE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MVFR
CIGS A GOOD BET. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
WIND/DUST AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND WIND/DUST...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LEAD
TROUGH HAS DRAWN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE EVEN SKIRTED
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...DRY LOW-LEVELS HAVE KEEP PRECIPITATION TO
A MINIMUM...WITH NO WTM SITES REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO OCCASIONALLY TAP A
50+ KNOT LLJ IN PLACE...RESULTING IN PERIODIC STRONG SURFACE WIND
GUSTS /40-50 MPH/ AND BLOWING DUST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE LEAD
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND CLOUD COVER QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. A SFC
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
/SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP
THE SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. SOME DEEP LAYER COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
UPPER TROUGH WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-70S NEAR FRIONA TO NEAR 90 AT ASPERMONT.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
EDGE INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS EVENING. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
8-10+ MB RAISE THE CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO LOFT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF
DUST...PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE AIDED BY ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF ANOTHER
HABOOB AFFECTING THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LARGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA /ON THE CAPROCK/ AND EASTERN NM...AND WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS. THAT SAID...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA /OFF THE CAPROCK/ AS A 40-45 KNOT LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THERE. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD BET A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON
THE PARTICULARS. MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR AND A STRATUS DECK WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT...WITH LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXPECT FOR A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST. IT DOES APPEAR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK COULD EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR COCHRAN...HOCKLEY.... LAMB...HALE AND FLOYD
COUNTIES. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO
REACH THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE...SO WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY
FREEZE RELATED HEADLINES.

ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE LOCALLY...BUT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN MIX WITH OR CHANCE OVER TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE COOLS...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12
UTC...BUT THE LATEST TTU-WRF DOES INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 15 UTC...SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. WE/LL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE
COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND OF COURSE A VERY DRY
AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE PROVIDE NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-FRZG TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY
DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF THE FAR
TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN/T REALLY BEGUN YET.
AFTER THE CHILLY START...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND
THEN 70S WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE THE FIRE DANGER INCREASE
AS LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH AS WELL. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY SLIM AS MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN BEFOREHAND. BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS THU AND FRI...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND WRN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MAKE FOR
AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS IT WILL TAKE A LOWER
LATITUDE TRACK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A BETTER COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE/VE KEPT OUR
POPS JUST SHY OF MENTION IN THE DAY 7/DAY 8 PERIOD...HOPING THAT
FUTURE RUNS WILL GIVE US THE CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTIONABLE
POPS.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION.
THE WORST COMBINATION OF WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH AT 20
FEET/ AND HUMIDITIES /BOTTOMING OUT AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY TO 8 PM. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE AT MOST SPOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES. THIS SHARP WIND SHIFT COULD
ADVERSELY AFFECT ANY ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS.

BREEZY SW WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WITH A PERSISTING DROUGHT AND DRY AIRMASS...FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AGAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE TOO COOL TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...BUT MAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  28  45  25  66 /  20  30  20   0   0
TULIA         77  31  46  25  66 /  10  20  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  33  47  26  65 /  10  20  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     83  34  49  27  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       84  35  49  28  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   85  35  52  28  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    85  36  51  28  67 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  37  51  30  67 /  10  10  20   0   0
SPUR          89  38  52  31  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     90  41  55  33  67 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>042.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

&&

$$

23/33/23
085
FXUS64 KLUB 130900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
WIND/DUST AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND WIND/DUST...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LEAD
TROUGH HAS DRAWN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE EVEN SKIRTED
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...DRY LOW-LEVELS HAVE KEEP PRECIPITATION TO
A MINIMUM...WITH NO WTM SITES REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO OCCASIONALLY TAP A
50+ KNOT LLJ IN PLACE...RESULTING IN PERIODIC STRONG SURFACE WIND
GUSTS /40-50 MPH/ AND BLOWING DUST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE LEAD
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND CLOUD COVER QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. A SFC
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
/SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP
THE SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. SOME DEEP LAYER COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
UPPER TROUGH WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-70S NEAR FRIONA TO NEAR 90 AT ASPERMONT.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
EDGE INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS EVENING. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
8-10+ MB RAISE THE CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO LOFT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF
DUST...PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE AIDED BY ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF ANOTHER
HABOOB AFFECTING THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LARGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA /ON THE CAPROCK/ AND EASTERN NM...AND WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS. THAT SAID...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA /OFF THE CAPROCK/ AS A 40-45 KNOT LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THERE. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD BET A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH WE HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON
THE PARTICULARS. MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR AND A STRATUS DECK WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT...WITH LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE
30S...EXPECT FOR A FEW LOWER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST. IT DOES APPEAR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK COULD EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR COCHRAN...HOCKLEY.... LAMB...HALE AND FLOYD
COUNTIES. TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO
REACH THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE...SO WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY
FREEZE RELATED HEADLINES.

ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE LOCALLY...BUT
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN MIX WITH OR CHANCE OVER TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE COOLS...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12
UTC...BUT THE LATEST TTU-WRF DOES INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 15 UTC...SO WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. WE/LL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE
COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND OF COURSE A VERY DRY
AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE PROVIDE NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-FRZG TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY
DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF THE FAR
TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN/T REALLY BEGUN YET.
AFTER THE CHILLY START...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND
THEN 70S WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE THE FIRE DANGER INCREASE
AS LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH AS WELL. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY SLIM AS MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN BEFOREHAND. BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS THU AND FRI...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND WRN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL LOOKS IT MAY MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS IT WILL TAKE A LOWER
LATITUDE TRACK AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A BETTER COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE/VE KEPT OUR
POPS JUST SHY OF MENTION IN THE DAY 7/DAY 8 PERIOD...HOPING THAT
FUTURE RUNS WILL GIVE US THE CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTIONABLE
POPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION.
THE WORST COMBINATION OF WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH AT 20
FEET/ AND HUMIDITIES /BOTTOMING OUT AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS/ WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY TO 8 PM. FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE AT MOST SPOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES. THIS SHARP WIND SHIFT COULD
ADVERSELY AFFECT ANY ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS.

BREEZY SW WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WITH A PERSISTING DROUGHT AND DRY AIRMASS...FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AGAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE TOO COOL TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...BUT MAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  28  45  25  66 /  20  30  20   0   0
TULIA         77  31  46  25  66 /  10  20  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  33  47  26  65 /  10  20  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     83  34  49  27  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       85  36  49  28  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   85  35  52  28  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    85  36  51  28  67 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  37  51  30  67 /  10  10  20   0   0
SPUR          89  38  52  31  66 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     90  41  55  33  67 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>042.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ028>030-033-034.

&&

$$

23/33
449
FXUS64 KLUB 122352 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME BLOWING DUST AT KLBB BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SW LATE THIS AFTN...COURTESY OF
THE EVER WATCHFUL UA DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS SRN NV/WRN AZ AND
TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. IT IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING
SHEARED OUT/OPENING UP...WHILST AIDING IN STREAMING A FETCH OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE /HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...SFC LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS DEEPENED WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO
OUR WEST. DEEP ABL MIXING UP TO AOA 600 MB EXISTS /THUS TAPPING INTO
20-35 KT WIND SPEEDS/...WHICH WOULD USUALLY REFLECT AT THE SFC AS
BREEZY WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THICK HIGH CLOUDS HAVE AIDED TO
SLOW DOWN/DELAY THE MIXING PROCESS AS SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH
EXISTS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY/. HOWEVER...CONTINUING ANTICIPATED
DEEPENED OF THE SFC LOW COULD GRADUALLY INCREASE SPEEDS OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHERMORE THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED
RATHER WARM CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER /80S AND 90S/ AS WELL
AS THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR TO ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA /DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIVER OF DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF
THE LOCATION OF A SHARP DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HENCE...IF THE CAP IS ABLE
TO BE BROKEN...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. BREEZY...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION THAT A 700 MB JET MAX OF 30+ KTS IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH...IF
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CLOUD COVER...COULD PROMOTE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED THEREBY CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO STAY UP A BIT /15-20
MPH/ WITH MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. CONCURRENTLY...MODELS
HINT AT LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEARING/BRUSHING ACROSS THE FAR SERN
ZONES...THANKS TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SAID LOCALES. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING DOES TAKE PLACE...IN ADDITION TO
THE EXISTENCE OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IS SLIM GIVEN RATHER DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT A 14 PERCENT POP WITH A SPRINKLE MENTION IS
APPROPRIATE.

THE UA DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A WEAKENED
OPEN WAVE TOMORROW AFTN. ANY RECOVERIES IN HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY
BECOME REPLACED BY DRIER AIR AS THE DISTURBANCE/S BREEZY PACIFIC
FRONT RACES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME
ALMOST DUE WRLY AT 20-25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW
TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME REALIZED. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S NW TO MIDDLE 80S SE. ONCE AGAIN...WARM...DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS /WITH LOCALIZED DUST/ WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER HIGH FIRE
DANGER DAY AND THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE REASON FOR THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE NOT BEING INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...IS
BECAUSE THE SAID AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS
WEAKER WINDS /AND COOLER TEMPS/ OCCUR JUST BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SET TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IMPACTS ARE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL BE TALKED ABOUT IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /29

LONG TERM...
TRENDS CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...DELAYING STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH UNTIL THE EVENING...WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL HAVE TO WORK ACROSS AN EXTREMELY
DRY AIRMASS. LATER SOLUTIONS HAVE PACKED STRONGER SURFACE FRONTAL
GRADIENT WHICH GIVES RISE TO OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER HABOOB-TYPE
BLOWING DUST SQUALL ARCING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT MAY BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY. FEW CHANGES TO LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING INTO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BRIEF LOWER TO MID LEVEL SATURATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA WHICH WOULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRYNESS
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...THOUGH
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IF CONCENTRATED FORCING OCCURS...STILL SEEMS AN
OUTSIDE BET. LIFT PULLING EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
THE SHOWER CHANCES FAIRLY ABRUPTLY AND WE DISCONTINUED MENTION FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD AND DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WITH TRENDS
STILL SUPPORTING PERHAPS WIDESPREAD FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THE
CAPROCK AND PERHAPS NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DO NOT REACH AVERAGE LAST
SPRING FREEZE DATES FOR ANOTHER 5-8 DAYS OR SO AND A SUBSTANTIAL
FREEZE OCCURRED APRIL 4TH WITH MID TO UPPER 20S. WE ARE NOT READY
TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH YET AS WE WOULD LIKE TO CLEAR OUT OF THIS
WEEKENDS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION TO KEEP PRODUCT LOAD MANAGEABLE.
BUT THIS WILL NEED CONSIDERATION TOMORROW ALONG WITH THE WIND
POTENTIAL TOMORROW NIGHT. BEYOND...FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER BENIGN CONDITIONS. FRONTAL DOWNTURN STILL PLAUSIBLE
THURSDAY-ISH WHILE PROSPECTS TO LOAD DRY-LINE LATE NEXT WEEK STILL
DISTANT IF NOT OUTRIGHT DOUBTFUL. ALSO...SOLUTIONS HAVE MINORED
OUT THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...SO ALL THIS FAVORS DRY IN OUR FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DEEPENING
OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTN...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
RESPONDED...BUT RATHER SLOWLY/GRADUALLY DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER
AIDING IN SLOWING DOWN/DELAYING ABL MIXING. AS SUCH...WIND SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY HARD-PRESSED TO REACH ITS TRUE POTENTIAL THOUGH...20-FOOT
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH EXISTS...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY
BREEZY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED RATHER WARM CONDITIONS
/80S AND 90S/ WHICH IN TURN ENCOURAGES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TOO
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUS BREEZY...WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTN...WHICH CAN BE FURTHER VALIDATED BY SEVERAL LOCATIONS TICKING
OFF 5-30 RED FLAG MINUTES /LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST GETTING STARTED/.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

TOMORROW AFTN...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED BREEZY PACIFIC FRONT PROMOTING 20-FOOT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...AND ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND
THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. WARM...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  70  31  46  25 /  10  10  20  30   0
TULIA         55  73  33  46  25 /  10  10  20  20   0
PLAINVIEW     57  75  34  48  26 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND     57  80  36  50  27 /  10  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       58  80  37  50  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  39  52  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    57  81  39  51  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     63  79  39  51  30 /  10  10  10  20   0
SPUR          62  85  40  52  31 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     66  85  43  54  33 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$
135
FXUS64 KLUB 122030
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SW LATE THIS AFTN...COURTESY OF
THE EVER WATCHFUL UA DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS SRN NV/WRN AZ AND
TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. IT IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING
SHEARED OUT/OPENING UP...WHILST AIDING IN STREAMING A FETCH OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE /HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...SFC LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS DEEPENED WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO
OUR WEST. DEEP ABL MIXING UP TO AOA 600 MB EXISTS /THUS TAPPING INTO
20-35 KT WIND SPEEDS/...WHICH WOULD USUALLY REFLECT AT THE SFC AS
BREEZY WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THICK HIGH CLOUDS HAVE AIDED TO
SLOW DOWN/DELAY THE MIXING PROCESS AS SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH
EXISTS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY/. HOWEVER...CONTINUING ANTICIPATED
DEEPENED OF THE SFC LOW COULD GRADUALLY INCREASE SPEEDS OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHERMORE THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED
RATHER WARM CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER /80S AND 90S/ AS WELL
AS THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR TO ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA /DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIVER OF DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF
THE LOCATION OF A SHARP DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HENCE...IF THE CAP IS ABLE
TO BE BROKEN...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. BREEZY...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION THAT A 700 MB JET MAX OF 30+ KTS IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH...IF
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CLOUD COVER...COULD PROMOTE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED THEREBY CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO STAY UP A BIT /15-20
MPH/ WITH MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. CONCURRENTLY...MODELS
HINT AT LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEARING/BRUSHING ACROSS THE FAR SERN
ZONES...THANKS TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SAID LOCALES. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING DOES TAKE PLACE...IN ADDITION TO
THE EXISTENCE OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IS SLIM GIVEN RATHER DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT A 14 PERCENT POP WITH A SPRINKLE MENTION IS
APPROPRIATE.

THE UA DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A WEAKENED
OPEN WAVE TOMORROW AFTN. ANY RECOVERIES IN HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY
BECOME REPLACED BY DRIER AIR AS THE DISTURBANCE/S BREEZY PACIFIC
FRONT RACES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME
ALMOST DUE WRLY AT 20-25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW
TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME REALIZED. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S NW TO MIDDLE 80S SE. ONCE AGAIN...WARM...DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS /WITH LOCALIZED DUST/ WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER HIGH FIRE
DANGER DAY AND THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE REASON FOR THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE NOT BEING INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...IS
BECAUSE THE SAID AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS
WEAKER WINDS /AND COOLER TEMPS/ OCCUR JUST BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SET TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IMPACTS ARE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL BE TALKED ABOUT IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /29


&&

.LONG TERM...
TRENDS CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...DELAYING STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH UNTIL THE EVENING...WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL HAVE TO WORK ACROSS AN EXTREMELY
DRY AIRMASS. LATER SOLUTIONS HAVE PACKED STRONGER SURFACE FRONTAL
GRADIENT WHICH GIVES RISE TO OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER HABOOB-TYPE
BLOWING DUST SQUALL ARCING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT MAY BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY. FEW CHANGES TO LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING INTO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BRIEF LOWER TO MID LEVEL SATURATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA WHICH WOULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRYNESS
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...THOUGH
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IF CONCENTRATED FORCING OCCURS...STILL SEEMS AN
OUTSIDE BET. LIFT PULLING EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
THE SHOWER CHANCES FAIRLY ABRUPTLY AND WE DISCONTINUED MENTION FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD AND DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WITH TRENDS
STILL SUPPORTING PERHAPS WIDESPREAD FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THE
CAPROCK AND PERHAPS NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DO NOT REACH AVERAGE LAST
SPRING FREEZE DATES FOR ANOTHER 5-8 DAYS OR SO AND A SUBSTANTIAL
FREEZE OCCURRED APRIL 4TH WITH MID TO UPPER 20S. WE ARE NOT READY
TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH YET AS WE WOULD LIKE TO CLEAR OUT OF THIS
WEEKENDS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION TO KEEP PRODUCT LOAD MANAGEABLE.
BUT THIS WILL NEED CONSIDERATION TOMORROW ALONG WITH THE WIND
POTENTIAL TOMORROW NIGHT. BEYOND...FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER BENIGN CONDITIONS. FRONTAL DOWNTURN STILL PLAUSIBLE
THURSDAY-ISH WHILE PROSPECTS TO LOAD DRY-LINE LATE NEXT WEEK STILL
DISTANT IF NOT OUTRIGHT DOUBTFUL. ALSO...SOLUTIONS HAVE MINORED
OUT THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...SO ALL THIS FAVORS DRY IN OUR FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DEEPENING
OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTN...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
RESPONDED...BUT RATHER SLOWLY/GRADUALLY DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER
AIDING IN SLOWING DOWN/DELAYING ABL MIXING. AS SUCH...WIND SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY HARD-PRESSED TO REACH ITS TRUE POTENTIAL THOUGH...20-FOOT
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH EXISTS...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY
BREEZY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED RATHER WARM CONDITIONS
/80S AND 90S/ WHICH IN TURN ENCOURAGES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TOO
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUS BREEZY...WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTN...WHICH CAN BE FURTHER VALIDATED BY SEVERAL LOCATIONS TICKING
OFF 5-30 RED FLAG MINUTES /LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST GETTING STARTED/.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

TOMORROW AFTN...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED BREEZY PACIFIC FRONT PROMOTING 20-FOOT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...AND ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND
THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. WARM...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  70  31  46  25 /  10  10  20  30   0
TULIA         55  73  33  46  25 /  10  10  20  20   0
PLAINVIEW     57  75  34  48  26 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND     57  80  36  50  27 /  10  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       58  81  37  50  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  39  52  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    57  81  39  51  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     63  79  39  51  30 /  10  10  10  20   0
SPUR          62  85  40  52  31 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     66  85  43  54  33 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

29/05
864
FXUS64 KLUB 121734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BREEZY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTN. SPEEDS OF 22-24 KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH
VISIBILITIES BECOMING RESTRICTED TO VFR CRITERIA /AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CRITERIA/ PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECLINE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT ONLY JUST A BIT WITH 17-18 KTS ENSUING.
TOMORROW AFTN...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...VFR BLDU
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE THE
FOCUS OF TODAY/S FORECAST.

THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS A SOLID FETCH
OF SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE SCARCE AS YOU
DESCEND TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
08Z...DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL SCOUR THE SURFACE
MOISTURE EASTWARD...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT DOES APPEAR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD IT OCCUR...WOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE SLIVER OF
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER 18Z. INSTEAD...DRY AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SPREAD OVER FROM THE WEST. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE MORE COMMON. IN ADDITION TO HEIGHTENING THE FIRE DANGER...THESE
GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST...AND WE HAVE INSERTED A
DUST MENTION IN THE GRIDS FROM 18-00Z. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER...THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FURTHER EAST.

BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINED AND THE ROLLING PLAINS BECOME POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF A 50-60+ KNOT LLJ. THE WARM DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...PERHAPS A FEW 40S
NORTHWEST...WHILE 60S ARE COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER MOISTURE COULD BRING THE RISK OF
A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS...FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...COULD NOT JUSTIFY ADDING ANY MENTIONABLE POPS...BUT A
ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS ALOFT CAN DEVELOP.

LONG TERM...
THE LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS OUR ERN
ZONES AS THE LATEST INFO SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF
THE FA...LEAVING US WITH ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY AND POSSIBLY A BIT
DUSTY...DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM
SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 MPH...LIKELY GENERATING SOME BLOWING
DUST...WHILE THE GFS COMING IN A BIT LOWER. IN ANY CASE...A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE OFFING LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO OUR NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE DELAYS IT/S ARRIVAL UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MAY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE DEGREE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST JUST
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. N-NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SURGE
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...OUR
FCST IS BELOW THIS STRENGTH BUT WE/LL KEEP ASSESSING THIS
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
SEWD OUT OF NM AS THE SECOND UPPER-LVL WAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR FRZG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN OUR NRN AND
WRN ZONES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 18 UTC MONDAY...WITH CHANCES
LIKELY DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER NOON AS THE LIFT QUICKLY SHIFTS
EAST. CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WE DON/T THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
RECOVER AND HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...PERHAPS SOME 40S
NORTH. THEN THE COLD SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY EVENING...AND
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-FRZG TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS /WHERE THEY HAVEN`T HIT THEIR AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE DATE YET/...AND A LITTLE BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK /WHERE IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A LATE
FREEZE/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT
THIS POINT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS UNDERGONE A LARGE SHIFT AND NOW SHOWS A RATHER SHARP TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BOTH FEATURES. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTERRUPTING THE WARM
UP...BUT MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FCST...THERE IS A HINT AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WTX
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WE/VE KEPT A DRY FORECAST UNTIL IF AND WHEN THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
DRYLINE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE /UPPER 80S TO
MID-90S/ WHICH WILL PUSH RH VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT AND PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 3 TO 5 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LONGEST DURATION OF SUSTAINED 20+ MPH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ PERIODIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THE DURATION IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH 3 HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. THUS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING...MEANING ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS...WE DID DECIDE TO
EXTEND THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS BY ONE HOUR...FROM 8 TO 9 PM.

DEPENDING OF COURSE ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY/S
SETUP APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS...THIS TIME CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RH VALUES AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. WE/VE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OUR
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MAY BE A CONCERN FOR
ANY FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS AS IT WILL BRING A SHARP CHANGE IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  70  31  46  30 /  10  10  20  30   0
TULIA         53  72  32  47  30 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     56  75  32  49  31 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     56  80  34  50  31 /  10  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       58  81  36  51  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  81  37  53  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    56  81  37  52  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     61  78  37  52  34 /  10  10  10  20  10
SPUR          61  85  38  52  34 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  88  41  55  36 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

29
250
FXUS64 KLUB 121152
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS AS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO LOFT
AREAS OF BLDU...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-
VFR VISIBILITIES IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. THE WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED TONIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS...AND LLWS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY THICKER BLDU THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE THE
FOCUS OF TODAY/S FORECAST.

THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS A SOLID FETCH
OF SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE SCARCE AS YOU
DESCEND TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
08Z...DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL SCOUR THE SURFACE
MOISTURE EASTWARD...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT DOES APPEAR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD IT OCCUR...WOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE SLIVER OF
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER 18Z. INSTEAD...DRY AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SPREAD OVER FROM THE WEST. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE MORE COMMON. IN ADDITION TO HEIGHTENING THE FIRE DANGER...THESE
GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST...AND WE HAVE INSERTED A
DUST MENTION IN THE GRIDS FROM 18-00Z. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER...THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FURTHER EAST.

BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINED AND THE ROLLING PLAINS BECOME POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF A 50-60+ KNOT LLJ. THE WARM DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...PERHAPS A FEW 40S
NORTHWEST...WHILE 60S ARE COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER MOISTURE COULD BRING THE RISK OF
A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS...FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...COULD NOT JUSTIFY ADDING ANY MENTIONABLE POPS...BUT A
ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS ALOFT CAN DEVELOP.

LONG TERM...
THE LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS OUR ERN
ZONES AS THE LATEST INFO SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF
THE FA...LEAVING US WITH ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY AND POSSIBLY A BIT
DUSTY...DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM
SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 MPH...LIKELY GENERATING SOME BLOWING
DUST...WHILE THE GFS COMING IN A BIT LOWER. IN ANY CASE...A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE OFFING LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO OUR NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE DELAYS IT/S ARRIVAL UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MAY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE DEGREE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST JUST
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. N-NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SURGE
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...OUR
FCST IS BELOW THIS STRENGTH BUT WE/LL KEEP ASSESSING THIS
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
SEWD OUT OF NM AS THE SECOND UPPER-LVL WAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR FRZG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN OUR NRN AND
WRN ZONES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 18 UTC MONDAY...WITH CHANCES
LIKELY DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER NOON AS THE LIFT QUICKLY SHIFTS
EAST. CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WE DON/T THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
RECOVER AND HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...PERHAPS SOME 40S
NORTH. THEN THE COLD SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY EVENING...AND
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-FRZG TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS /WHERE THEY HAVEN`T HIT THEIR AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE DATE YET/...AND A LITTLE BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK /WHERE IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A LATE
FREEZE/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT
THIS POINT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS UNDERGONE A LARGE SHIFT AND NOW SHOWS A RATHER SHARP TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BOTH FEATURES. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTERRUPTING THE WARM
UP...BUT MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FCST...THERE IS A HINT AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WTX
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WE/VE KEPT A DRY FORECAST UNTIL IF AND WHEN THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
DRYLINE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE /UPPER 80S TO
MID-90S/ WHICH WILL PUSH RH VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT AND PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 3 TO 5 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LONGEST DURATION OF SUSTAINED 20+ MPH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ PERIODIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THE DURATION IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH 3 HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. THUS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING...MEANING ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS...WE DID DECIDE TO
EXTEND THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS BY ONE HOUR...FROM 8 TO 9 PM.

DEPENDING OF COURSE ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY/S
SETUP APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS...THIS TIME CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RH VALUES AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. WE/VE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OUR
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MAY BE A CONCERN FOR
ANY FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS AS IT WILL BRING A SHARP CHANGE IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  51  70  31  46 /   0  10  10  20  30
TULIA         88  53  72  32  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     90  56  75  32  49 /   0  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     90  56  80  34  50 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       90  58  80  36  51 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   87  53  81  37  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    90  56  81  37  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     96  61  78  37  52 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          93  61  85  38  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     93  65  88  41  55 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

23/33/23
607
FXUS64 KLUB 120903
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE THE
FOCUS OF TODAY/S FORECAST.

THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS A SOLID FETCH
OF SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE SCARCE AS YOU
DESCEND TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
08Z...DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL SCOUR THE SURFACE
MOISTURE EASTWARD...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT DOES APPEAR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD IT OCCUR...WOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE SLIVER OF
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER 18Z. INSTEAD...DRY AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SPREAD OVER FROM THE WEST. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE MORE COMMON. IN ADDITION TO HEIGHTENING THE FIRE DANGER...THESE
GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST...AND WE HAVE INSERTED A
DUST MENTION IN THE GRIDS FROM 18-00Z. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER...THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FURTHER EAST.

BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINED AND THE ROLLING PLAINS BECOME POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF A 50-60+ KNOT LLJ. THE WARM DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...PERHAPS A FEW 40S
NORTHWEST...WHILE 60S ARE COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER MOISTURE COULD BRING THE RISK OF
A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS...FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...COULD NOT JUSTIFY ADDING ANY MENTIONABLE POPS...BUT A
ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS ALOFT CAN DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS OUR ERN
ZONES AS THE LATEST INFO SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF
THE FA...LEAVING US WITH ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY AND POSSIBLY A BIT
DUSTY...DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM
SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 MPH...LIKELY GENERATING SOME BLOWING
DUST...WHILE THE GFS COMING IN A BIT LOWER. IN ANY CASE...A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE OFFING LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO OUR NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE DELAYS IT/S ARRIVAL UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MAY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE DEGREE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST JUST SLIGHTLY
TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. N-NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SURGE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...OUR
FCST IS BELOW THIS STRENGTH BUT WE/LL KEEP ASSESSING THIS
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
SEWD OUT OF NM AS THE SECOND UPPER-LVL WAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR FRZG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN OUR NRN AND
WRN ZONES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 18 UTC MONDAY...WITH CHANCES
LIKELY DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER NOON AS THE LIFT QUICKLY SHIFTS
EAST. CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WE DON/T THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
RECOVER AND HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...PERHAPS SOME 40S
NORTH. THEN THE COLD SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY
EVENING...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-FRZG TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR
THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS /WHERE THEY HAVEN`T HIT
THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE YET/...AND A LITTLE BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK /WHERE IT
WOULD BE CONSIDERED A LATE FREEZE/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS POINT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS UNDERGONE A LARGE SHIFT AND NOW SHOWS A RATHER SHARP TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BOTH FEATURES. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTERRUPTING THE WARM
UP...BUT MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FCST...THERE IS A HINT AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WTX
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WE/VE KEPT A DRY FORECAST UNTIL IF AND WHEN THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
DRYLINE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE /UPPER 80S TO
MID-90S/ WHICH WILL PUSH RH VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT AND PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 3 TO 5 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LONGEST DURATION OF SUSTAINED 20+ MPH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ PERIODIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THE DURATION IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH 3 HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. THUS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING...MEANING ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS...WE DID DECIDE TO
EXTEND THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS BY ONE HOUR...FROM 8 TO 9 PM.

DEPENDING OF COURSE ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY/S
SETUP APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS...THIS TIME CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RH VALUES AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. WE/VE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OUR
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MAY BE A CONCERN FOR
ANY FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS AS IT WILL BRING A SHARP CHANGE IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  51  70  31  46 /   0  10  10  20  30
TULIA         88  53  72  32  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     90  56  75  32  49 /   0  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     90  56  80  34  50 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       90  58  81  36  51 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   87  53  81  37  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    90  56  81  37  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     96  61  78  37  52 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          93  61  85  38  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     93  65  88  41  55 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

23/33
435
FXUS64 KLUB 120442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THRU 13/06Z. SELY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
TREND SWLY BY LATE SAT MRNG BEFORE RAMPING UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED AFTER 16Z. OCNL AFTN GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS COULD STIR UP
BLDU AT LBB...BUT NOTHING TO RESTRICT VISBYS BLO VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  87  48  72  31 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         50  89  52  75  32 /   0   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     52  89  53  76  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  90  56  79  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  91  57  79  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  88  56  80  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    53  90  58  82  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  94  62  82  36 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          55  91  60  83  38 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     57  90  64  87  40 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

93
739
FXUS64 KLUB 112302
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD. OCNL LIGHT/VRB WINDS
THIS EVNG WILL TREND S-SELY WITH TIME BEFORE RAMPING UP TO 18-20
KNOTS FROM THE SW BY LATE SAT MRNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BACK-DOORED INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH
PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING...HAS PUSHED TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE VEERING OF SFC WINDS TO THE E-NE HAS
COMMENCED...COURTESY OF WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND THE
GRADUAL EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A SLOW EWRD
PROPAGATING FLATTENED UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST HAS AIDED IN FILTERING IN
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SW TO NE. THOUGH...DESPITE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
HOWEVER...THIS IS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS THANKS TO THE ADVECTION OF
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/SFC
RIDGE. TONIGHT...A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. CONCURRENTLY...SFC WINDS WILL
VEER FURTHER WITH A S-SE COMPONENT TONIGHT TO FINALLY A S-SW
COMPONENT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING TOMORROW AS A COUPLE OF WX FEATURES MAY
TAKE SHAPE. THE FIRST IS THE DEEPENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UA LOW /CURRENTLY
OFF THE CALI COAST/ THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ON SHORE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THE RESULT IS BREEZY SW/DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20-25
MPH/...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORM WARMTH /80S AND
90S/ AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DUST. THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK BY
PEAK HEATING. BREEZY...WARM  AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER...AND THEREFORE  UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE APPEARS VALID. FOR FURTHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR ON THE CAPROCK TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE MOISTER AIR ENSUES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN THE SECOND WX
FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES /INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE/ WITH LITTLE TO NO
CIN...SFC-BASED CAPE OF 600-1000 J/KG...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BEING THE AREA OF
INTEREST COINCIDING WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN. IF THE CAP CAN
INDEED BE BROKEN...ADEQUATE SPEED AND WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN HAIL
AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION PROSPECTS ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT BEGINS OVER-SPREADING THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING. WE WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AREA...THOUGH NOT AS CONVINCED BY THE SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES FURTHER WEST AS DEPICTED BY GFS ON THE CAPROCK WHERE
CONSIDERABLE DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND INSTABILITY A
BIT IN QUESTION. GFS FASTER FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS TROUGH
SYSTEM AND THUS QUICKEST TO DROP THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE CHOSE A BLEND WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS
KEEPING BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND WARM AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO GENERATE AT LEAST BREEZY OR LOW END
WINDY CONDITIONS. NEXT EVENT WILL BE THAT SHARP COLD FRONT
SWEEPING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING...ADDED PATCHY BLOWING DUST WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS. COLDER AIR SETTLING SOUTHWARD WITH SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
FAVORING NORTHWEST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTENING IN LOWER
LEVELS ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE WIDE APART WITH THE CRITICAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...SO CANNOT ARGUE ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH WE DID EXTEND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH. THEN...COLD AIR WILL ENGULF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FREEZE LOOKING LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY MANY AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. WE WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WHETHER A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS IN LATER FORECASTS. FLATTER PATTERN BEYOND
WILL LEAD TO WARMING. PERHAPS A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY NOT LOWER TEMPERATURES
VERY MUCH. WITHHOLDING ON PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ARISES. LONG TERM FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY: A NEARBY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON..IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACH UPPER LEVEL FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN 20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25
MPH. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL PROMOTE TEMPS TO WARM SOME
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IN TURN...WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BREEZY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
THEREFORE BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AIRMASS LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS AT
LEAST SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH
THE CRISP CANADIAN COLD FRONT HANGING UP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. A
PACIFIC FRONT PASSING EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY LIMIT RED FLAG
POSSIBILITIES SOMEWHAT...WHILE WIND SPEEDS ALSO MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. STILL...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LOOKS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  87  48  72  31 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         50  89  52  75  32 /   0   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     52  89  53  76  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  90  56  79  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  91  57  79  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  88  56  80  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    53  90  58  82  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  94  62  82  36 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          55  91  60  83  38 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     57  90  64  87  40 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

93
326
FXUS64 KLUB 112051
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BACK-DOORED INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH
PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING...HAS PUSHED TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE VEERING OF SFC WINDS TO THE E-NE HAS
COMMENCED...COURTESY OF WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND THE
GRADUAL EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A SLOW EWRD
PROPAGATING FLATTENED UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST HAS AIDED IN FILTERING IN
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SW TO NE. THOUGH...DESPITE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
HOWEVER...THIS IS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS THANKS TO THE ADVECTION OF
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/SFC
RIDGE. TONIGHT...A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. CONCURRENTLY...SFC WINDS WILL
VEER FURTHER WITH A S-SE COMPONENT TONIGHT TO FINALLY A S-SW
COMPONENT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING TOMORROW AS A COUPLE OF WX FEATURES MAY
TAKE SHAPE. THE FIRST IS THE DEEPENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UA LOW /CURRENTLY
OFF THE CALI COAST/ THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ON SHORE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THE RESULT IS BREEZY SW/DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20-25
MPH/...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORM WARMTH /80S AND
90S/ AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DUST. THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK BY
PEAK HEATING. BREEZY...WARM  AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER...AND THEREFORE  UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE APPEARS VALID. FOR FURTHER INFO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR ON THE CAPROCK TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE MOISTER AIR ENSUES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN THE SECOND WX
FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES /INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE/ WITH LITTLE TO NO
CIN...SFC-BASED CAPE OF 600-1000 J/KG...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADEQUATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BEING THE AREA OF
INTEREST COINCIDING WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN. IF THE CAP CAN
INDEED BE BROKEN...ADEQUATE SPEED AND WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN HAIL
AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION PROSPECTS ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS
SYNOPTIC LIFT BEGINS OVER-SPREADING THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING. WE WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AREA...THOUGH NOT AS CONVINCED BY THE SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES FURTHER WEST AS DEPICTED BY GFS ON THE CAPROCK WHERE
CONSIDERABLE DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND INSTABILITY A
BIT IN QUESTION. GFS FASTER FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS TROUGH
SYSTEM AND THUS QUICKEST TO DROP THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE CHOSE A BLEND WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS
KEEPING BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND WARM AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO GENERATE AT LEAST BREEZY OR LOW END
WINDY CONDITIONS. NEXT EVENT WILL BE THAT SHARP COLD FRONT
SWEEPING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING...ADDED PATCHY BLOWING DUST WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS. COLDER AIR SETTLING SOUTHWARD WITH SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
FAVORING NORTHWEST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTENING IN LOWER
LEVELS ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE WIDE APART WITH THE CRITICAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...SO CANNOT ARGUE ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH WE DID EXTEND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH. THEN...COLD AIR WILL ENGULF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FREEZE LOOKING LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY MANY AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. WE WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WHETHER A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS IN LATER FORECASTS. FLATTER PATTERN BEYOND
WILL LEAD TO WARMING. PERHAPS A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY NOT LOWER TEMPERATURES
VERY MUCH. WITHHOLDING ON PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ARISES. LONG TERM FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY: A NEARBY SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON..IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACH UPPER LEVEL FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN 20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25
MPH. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL PROMOTE TEMPS TO WARM SOME
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IN TURN...WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BREEZY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
THEREFORE BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AIRMASS LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS AT
LEAST SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH
THE CRISP CANADIAN COLD FRONT HANGING UP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. A
PACIFIC FRONT PASSING EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY LIMIT RED FLAG
POSSIBILITIES SOMEWHAT...WHILE WIND SPEEDS ALSO MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. STILL...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LOOKS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY FORECASTER: RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  87  48  72  31 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         50  89  52  75  32 /   0   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     52  89  53  76  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  90  56  79  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  91  58  80  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  88  56  80  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    53  90  58  82  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  94  62  82  36 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          55  91  60  83  38 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     57  90  64  87  40 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

29/05
254
FXUS64 KLUB 111720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND FINALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY TOMORROW
EARLY AFTN TO AROUND 18-20 KTS...AND COULD BE A BIT STRONGER LATE
IN THE AFTN BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE A RATHER QUIET NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS OF 07Z...A WEAK COLD
FRONT HAS BACKDOORED THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTHWEST YOAKUM COUNTY.
POST-FRONTAL AIR WAS MODESTLY COOLER AND MOISTURE FILLED...THOUGH IT
IS ALL RELATIVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE
TODAY...PROVIDING LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGING MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS IT EDGES
EASTWARD. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
FLOW AND OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...BUT IT WILL BRING LITTLE FANFARE
OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...BEHIND YESTERDAY/S STALLING COLD FRONT...BUT
EVEN WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN FOLLOW...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
A BIT OF A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP FOR SAT/SUN/MON WEATHER WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS SAT MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT WITH A
DRYLINE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN ROLLING PLAINS...PERHAPS
SIGHTLY FARTHER EAST IN THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE
DAY...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...THE DRYLINE SHOULD HALT AND RETREAT WWD IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE WEST. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE...PERHAPS FOCUSED IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE. WE/VE ADDED A
SLGT CHC OF TSRA FOR THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...INCOMING MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD SPARK A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS BACK
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE LITTLE
MORE THAN VIRGA...WE/VE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...LIKELY WITHOUT PRODUCING
ANY RAIN CHANCES AS MOISTURE RACES OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION
OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA...BUT WE DO EXPECT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW STRATUS TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S...AND PERHAPS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS WTX DURING THE
DAY...AND BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES...SO WE/VE ADDED A SLGT CHC MENTION
FOR THAT POTENTIAL. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO NOSE-DIVE MONDAY NIGHT...AND WE COULD SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEK...HANDLING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST QUITE DIFFERENTLY.
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY WE/VE MAINTAINED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK..AS SW BREEZES INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH A WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS. DEWPOINT GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT...PROGGING
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE DRY AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DRYLINE. EVEN SO...RH VALUES STILL DROP UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND SPLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  85  50  71  32 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         50  88  52  74  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  88  54  75  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  88  56  78  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       56  89  58  79  37 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  87  57  81  39 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    55  89  59  80  39 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     54  91  61  80  38 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          56  90  60  81  40 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  90  65  84  41 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

29
703
FXUS64 KLUB 111134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWING AROUND FROM NORTHERLY THIS MORNING TO
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE A RATHER QUIET NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS OF 07Z...A WEAK COLD
FRONT HAS BACKDOORED THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTHWEST YOAKUM COUNTY.
POST-FRONTAL AIR WAS MODESTLY COOLER AND MOISTURE FILLED...THOUGH IT
IS ALL RELATIVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE
TODAY...PROVIDING LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGING MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS IT EDGES
EASTWARD. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
FLOW AND OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...BUT IT WILL BRING LITTLE FANFARE
OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...BEHIND YESTERDAY/S STALLING COLD FRONT...BUT
EVEN WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN FOLLOW...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
A BIT OF A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP FOR SAT/SUN/MON WEATHER WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS SAT MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT WITH A
DRYLINE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN ROLLING PLAINS...PERHAPS
SIGHTLY FARTHER EAST IN THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE
DAY...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...THE DRYLINE SHOULD HALT AND RETREAT WWD IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE WEST. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE...PERHAPS FOCUSED IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE. WE/VE ADDED A
SLGT CHC OF TSRA FOR THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...INCOMING MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD SPARK A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS BACK
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE LITTLE
MORE THAN VIRGA...WE/VE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...LIKELY WITHOUT PRODUCING
ANY RAIN CHANCES AS MOISTURE RACES OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION
OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA...BUT WE DO EXPECT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW STRATUS TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S...AND PERHAPS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS WTX DURING THE
DAY...AND BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES...SO WE/VE ADDED A SLGT CHC MENTION
FOR THAT POTENTIAL. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO NOSE-DIVE MONDAY NIGHT...AND WE COULD SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEK...HANDLING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST QUITE DIFFERENTLY.
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY WE/VE MAINTAINED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK..AS SW BREEZES INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH A WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS. DEWPOINT GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT...PROGGING
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE DRY AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DRYLINE. EVEN SO...RH VALUES STILL DROP UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND SPLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  46  85  50  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         81  50  88  52  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     82  53  88  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     85  54  88  56  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       84  56  89  57  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   88  53  87  57  81 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    87  55  89  59  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  54  91  61  80 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          85  56  90  60  81 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     85  59  90  65  84 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

23/33/23
064
FXUS64 KLUB 110910
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE A RATHER QUIET NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS OF 07Z...A WEAK COLD
FRONT HAS BACKDOORED THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTHWEST YOAKUM COUNTY.
POST-FRONTAL AIR WAS MODESTLY COOLER AND MOISTURE FILLED...THOUGH IT
IS ALL RELATIVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE
TODAY...PROVIDING LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGING MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS IT EDGES
EASTWARD. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
FLOW AND OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...BUT IT WILL BRING LITTLE FANFARE
OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...BEHIND YESTERDAY/S STALLING COLD FRONT...BUT
EVEN WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN FOLLOW...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A BIT OF A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP FOR SAT/SUN/MON WEATHER WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS SAT MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT WITH A
DRYLINE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN ROLLING PLAINS...PERHAPS
SIGHTLY FARTHER EAST IN THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE
DAY...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...THE DRYLINE SHOULD HALT AND RETREAT WWD IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE WEST. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE...PERHAPS FOCUSED IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE. WE/VE ADDED A
SLGT CHC OF TSRA FOR THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...INCOMING MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD SPARK A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS BACK
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE LITTLE
MORE THAN VIRGA...WE/VE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...LIKELY WITHOUT PRODUCING
ANY RAIN CHANCES AS MOISTURE RACES OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION
OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA...BUT WE DO EXPECT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW STRATUS TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S...AND PERHAPS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS WTX DURING THE
DAY...AND BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES...SO WE/VE ADDED A SLGT CHC MENTION
FOR THAT POTENTIAL. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO NOSE-DIVE MONDAY NIGHT...AND WE COULD SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEK...HANDLING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST QUITE DIFFERENTLY.
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY WE/VE MAINTAINED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK..AS SW BREEZES INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH A WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS. DEWPOINT GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT...PROGGING
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE DRY AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DRYLINE. EVEN SO...RH VALUES STILL DROP UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND SPLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  46  85  50  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         81  50  88  52  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     82  53  88  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     85  54  88  56  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       84  56  89  58  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   88  53  87  57  81 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    87  55  89  59  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  54  91  61  80 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          85  56  90  60  81 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     85  59  90  65  84 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
897
FXUS64 KLUB 110434
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT NELY WINDS TO TREND SELY BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  82  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  79  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     47  81  52  88  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     48  84  53  90  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  83  54  90  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  84  54  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  53  91  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  82  55  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  85  54  90  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     55  84  57  90  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
474
FXUS64 KLUB 102331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT NELY WINDS THRU FRI. STALLED FRONT JUST SW
OF LBB WILL RESUME ITS SWWD COURSE SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PRETTY GOOD SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING HELPED IT TO
MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE 3 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ANALYSIS WAS CORROBORATED
BY RADAR DATA AND HAD THE FRONT STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG A
MULESHOE...LUBBOCK...TO PADUCAH LINE.  TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
HAVE STILL MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS BUT COOLER AIR HAS HELPED HOLD THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR 80 DEGREES.  FRONT WAS
ALSO PICKED UP QUITE NICELY IN DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WHERE SUB ZERO
DEWPOINTS/VERY DRY AIR WAS SHOWING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS HAD DEWPOINTS INCREASING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TO MID 30S IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FRONT WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SAG FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING MIN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THIS MORNING FOR FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
UA LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE SW COURTESY OF
A CLOSED UA PACIFIC LOW NEARING THE SHORE OF SRN CALI. SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE S-SW WITH MODEST
BREEZES MAKING FOR A RATHER WARM /80S AND 90S/ AND DRY SAT...THUS
POSING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO OF
NOTE TO MENTION THAT DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON THE CAPROCK WILL AID TO
SETUP A DRYLINE WHICH WILL SHARPEN OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN.
THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA...THOUGH PWATS
OF 0.75-0.90 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS WILL EXIST /WITH
DEWPOINTS NEARING 50F/. LACK OF UL SUPPORT IS THE REASON THE NAM
IS VOID OF PRECIP...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND LACK OF UL FORCING. LACK OF UL SUPPORT IS THE
REASON BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN...HOWEVER STORMS
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING IS POSSIBLE BUT THE
QUESTION IS WILL IT BREAK THE CAP. IF SO...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR ARE ADEQUATE THUS SUGGESTIVE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL.

BY SAT NIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN UP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA LOW OPENS UP WHILE PROGRESSING EWRD ACROSS THE DESERT SW. PWATS
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 0.40-1.00 INCH /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. CONCURRENTLY...SFC LEE TROUGHING IS
SHOWN TO DEEPEN A BIT AND HENCE MAINTAIN BREEZY S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE UA DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FA SUN AFTN...AND IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN DRY FROM WEST TO EAST THEREBY
DRY-SLOTTING THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO EXHIBIT A SLIVER OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY IMPINGING ON THE AREA EITHER SUN
AFTN OR SUN EVENING /MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TIMING/ IT
WILL BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF /FRONTOGENETICAL/ FORCING...WHICH WILL
COUPLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HENCE ENCOURAGE  THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT BARELY
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS...GIVEN MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A
STRUGGLE BUT WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE 1025+ MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING
THE FRONT...TO IMPOSE PRESSURE RISES OF 6-12 MB PER 3 HRS AND CAUSE
NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH. FURTHERMORE...THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN 850 MB TEMPS OF 0C TO -2C BY MON MORNING...LEADING TO FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ON MON WILL THEREFORE DROP BACK TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS /LOWER 60S/ AND WITH THE SFC RIDGE SETTLING NEAR THE
REGION MON NIGHT...CHILLY TEMPS WILL ENSUE TUE MORNING /MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S/. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MON IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIP...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS QUICKLY DRYING OUT COULD PROVE
THIS TO BE OVERDONE /AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY BEING THE RULE/.
THEREAFTER...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD WHILST SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF SFC SRLY FLOW TAKING PLACE WILL LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY-MID WEEK /HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S BY
MID-WEEK/. MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED /WED/THU/...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SILENT WX
GRIDS BEYOND SUN ATTM AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  82  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  79  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     47  81  52  88  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     48  84  53  90  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  83  54  90  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  84  54  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  53  91  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  82  55  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  85  54  90  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     55  84  57  90  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
128
FXUS64 KLUB 102024
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
324 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A PRETTY GOOD SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING HELPED IT TO
MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE 3 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ANALYSIS WAS CORROBORATED
BY RADAR DATA AND HAD THE FRONT STALLED OUT ROUGHLY ALONG A
MULESHOE...LUBBOCK...TO PADUCAH LINE.  TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
HAVE STILL MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS BUT COOLER AIR HAS HELPED HOLD THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR 80 DEGREES.  FRONT WAS
ALSO PICKED UP QUITE NICELY IN DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WHERE SUB ZERO
DEWPOINTS/VERY DRY AIR WAS SHOWING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS HAD DEWPOINTS INCREASING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TO MID 30S IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FRONT WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO SAG FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING MIN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THIS MORNING FOR FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
UA LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE SW COURTESY OF
A CLOSED UA PACIFIC LOW NEARING THE SHORE OF SRN CALI. SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE S-SW WITH MODEST
BREEZES MAKING FOR A RATHER WARM /80S AND 90S/ AND DRY SAT...THUS
POSING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO OF
NOTE TO MENTION THAT DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON THE CAPROCK WILL AID TO
SETUP A DRYLINE WHICH WILL SHARPEN OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN.
THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA...THOUGH PWATS
OF 0.75-0.90 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS WILL EXIST /WITH
DEWPOINTS NEARING 50F/. LACK OF UL SUPPORT IS THE REASON THE NAM
IS VOID OF PRECIP...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND LACK OF UL FORCING. LACK OF UL SUPPORT IS THE
REASON BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS WILL REMAIN...HOWEVER STORMS
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING IS POSSIBLE BUT THE
QUESTION IS WILL IT BREAK THE CAP. IF SO...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR ARE ADEQUATE THUS SUGGESTIVE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL.

BY SAT NIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN UP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA LOW OPENS UP WHILE PROGRESSING EWRD ACROSS THE DESERT SW. PWATS
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 0.40-1.00 INCH /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. CONCURRENTLY...SFC LEE TROUGHING IS
SHOWN TO DEEPEN A BIT AND HENCE MAINTAIN BREEZY S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE UA DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FA SUN AFTN...AND IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN DRY FROM WEST TO EAST THEREBY
DRY-SLOTTING THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO EXHIBIT A SLIVER OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY IMPINGING ON THE AREA EITHER SUN
AFTN OR SUN EVENING /MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TIMING/ IT
WILL BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF /FRONTOGENETICAL/ FORCING...WHICH WILL
COUPLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HENCE ENCOURAGE  THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT BARELY
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS...GIVEN MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A
STRUGGLE BUT WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE 1025+ MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING
THE FRONT...TO IMPOSE PRESSURE RISES OF 6-12 MB PER 3 HRS AND CAUSE
NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH. FURTHERMORE...THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN 850 MB TEMPS OF 0C TO -2C BY MON MORNING...LEADING TO FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ON MON WILL THEREFORE DROP BACK TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS /LOWER 60S/ AND WITH THE SFC RIDGE SETTLING NEAR THE
REGION MON NIGHT...CHILLY TEMPS WILL ENSUE TUE MORNING /MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S/. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MON IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIP...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS QUICKLY DRYING OUT COULD PROVE
THIS TO BE OVERDONE /AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY BEING THE RULE/.
THEREAFTER...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD WHILST SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF SFC SRLY FLOW TAKING PLACE WILL LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY-MID WEEK /HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S BY
MID-WEEK/. MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED /WED/THU/...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SILENT WX
GRIDS BEYOND SUN ATTM AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  82  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  79  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     47  81  52  88  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     48  84  53  90  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  83  54  90  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  84  54  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  53  91  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  82  55  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  85  54  90  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     55  84  57  90  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
813
FXUS64 KLUB 101732 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCDS EARLIER THAN ANY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS SHOWED AND EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO POSSIBLY OCCUR AT
KLBB. WIND WILL SWING OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 21 TO
22Z AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE EVENING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SWING AROUND FROM SW TO THE W-NW TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MIGRATES EAST ACROSS WTX. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SKY
COVER WILL REMAIN AOA 20K FT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION THIS FAR SOUTH. IT WILL
HOWEVER DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS TURNING
WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...ALTHOUGH WE NOW THINK THAT
COOLER AIR MAY REACH THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND WE/VE CUT BACK TEMPS IN THESE AREAS ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES OR SO. TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
LUBBOCK FOR THE DATE IS 93 DEGREES...SET IN BOTH 1934 AND 1972...AND
WE EXPECT TO COME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY TODAY. THE WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY IN GENERAL ALTHOUGH IT MAY
STILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE SW SPLNS AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD LOSE
MOMENTUM AND LIKELY STALL OUT THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT
AND SOME BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOST PART WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

LONG TERM...
TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE THINKING FOR THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND WILL BE A MUCH DAMPENED SHORT WAVE
BY THE TIME IT REACHES WEST TEXAS. THE TRENDS ARE TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH A STRONG DRY SLOT LIKELY SPREADING OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND THE GFS THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GIVEN ITS RECENT CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...BOTH DO SHOW A
PACIFIC FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY. VERY BRIEF BUT MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY
GIVING A LIGHT FREEZE. TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE
REGION. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY AT THE MOMENT FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

TUESDAY MAY BEGIN ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER WITH
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
CARVE OUT THE WESTERN US LEADING TO SEASONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH EXPECTED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AT THE 20
FOOT LEVEL. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  46  80  48  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  79  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     89  48  81  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     89  49  84  54  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       90  52  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   90  51  88  53  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    91  51  85  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     90  53  80  56  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          92  53  85  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     93  56  88  58  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99
813
FXUS64 KLUB 101128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SWING AROUND FROM SW TO THE W-NW TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MIGRATES EAST ACROSS WTX. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SKY
COVER WILL REMAIN AOA 20K FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION THIS FAR SOUTH. IT WILL
HOWEVER DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS TURNING
WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...ALTHOUGH WE NOW THINK THAT
COOLER AIR MAY REACH THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND WE/VE CUT BACK TEMPS IN THESE AREAS ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES OR SO. TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
LUBBOCK FOR THE DATE IS 93 DEGREES...SET IN BOTH 1934 AND 1972...AND
WE EXPECT TO COME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY TODAY. THE WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY IN GENERAL ALTHOUGH IT MAY
STILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE SW SPLNS AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD LOSE
MOMENTUM AND LIKELY STALL OUT THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT
AND SOME BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOST PART WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

LONG TERM...
TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE THINKING FOR THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND WILL BE A MUCH DAMPENED SHORT WAVE
BY THE TIME IT REACHES WEST TEXAS. THE TRENDS ARE TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH A STRONG DRY SLOT LIKELY SPREADING OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND THE GFS THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GIVEN ITS RECENT CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...BOTH DO SHOW A
PACIFIC FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY. VERY BRIEF BUT MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY
GIVING A LIGHT FREEZE. TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE
REGION. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY AT THE MOMENT FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

TUESDAY MAY BEGIN ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER WITH
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
CARVE OUT THE WESTERN US LEADING TO SEASONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH EXPECTED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AT THE 20
FOOT LEVEL. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  46  80  48  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  79  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     89  48  81  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     89  49  84  54  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       90  53  83  54  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   90  51  88  53  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    91  51  85  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     90  53  80  56  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          92  53  85  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     93  56  88  58  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
684
FXUS64 KLUB 100848
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION THIS FAR SOUTH. IT WILL
HOWEVER DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS TURNING
WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...ALTHOUGH WE NOW THINK THAT
COOLER AIR MAY REACH THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND WE/VE CUT BACK TEMPS IN THESE AREAS ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES OR SO. TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
LUBBOCK FOR THE DATE IS 93 DEGREES...SET IN BOTH 1934 AND 1972...AND
WE EXPECT TO COME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY TODAY. THE WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY IN GENERAL ALTHOUGH IT MAY
STILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE SW SPLNS AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD LOSE
MOMENTUM AND LIKELY STALL OUT THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT
AND SOME BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOST PART WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE THINKING FOR THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND WILL BE A MUCH DAMPENED SHORT WAVE
BY THE TIME IT REACHES WEST TEXAS. THE TRENDS ARE TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH A STRONG DRY SLOT LIKELY SPREADING OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND THE GFS THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GIVEN ITS RECENT CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...BOTH DO SHOW A
PACIFIC FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY. VERY BRIEF BUT MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY
GIVING A LIGHT FREEZE. TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE
REGION. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY AT THE MOMENT FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

TUESDAY MAY BEGIN ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER WITH
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
CARVE OUT THE WESTERN US LEADING TO SEASONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH EXPECTED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AT THE 20
FOOT LEVEL. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  46  80  48  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  79  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     89  48  81  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     89  49  84  54  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       90  52  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   90  51  88  53  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    91  51  85  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     90  53  80  56  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          92  53  85  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     93  56  88  58  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
766
FXUS64 KLUB 100441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR. BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS TAF SET WAS TO SCALE BACK GUSTY
W-SWLY WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT
NELY WINDS NOW LOOKS TO IMPACT CDS MUCH SOONER THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT /~20Z/ BEFORE SLOWING AND CLEARING LBB BY EARLY THU
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE OUR SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS IN THESE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN TOO INCONSISTENT
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT FARTHER NORTH A FEW
LOCATIONS ARE FLIRTING WITH THREE HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...IR SATELLITE EARLIER CAPTURED A WILDFIRE NEAR
NORTHFIELD WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING EXTINGUISHED. NO
FURTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  86  47  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  89  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  90  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  92  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  92  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  91  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    48  93  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  95  52  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          55  95  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  95  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
799
FXUS64 KLUB 092336 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE OUR SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS IN THESE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN TOO INCONSISTENT
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT FARTHER NORTH A FEW
LOCATIONS ARE FLIRTING WITH THREE HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...IR SATELLITE EARLIER CAPTURED A WILDFIRE NEAR
NORTHFIELD WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING EXTINGUISHED. NO
FURTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH FEW-SCT CIRRUS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING WEST AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT A DRY
COLD FRONT TO EDGE SWWD THU EVENING AHEAD OF NELY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  86  47  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  89  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  90  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  92  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  92  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  91  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    48  93  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  95  52  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          55  95  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  95  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>032.

&&

$$

93/26/93
237
FXUS64 KLUB 092023
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
323 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED A FEW DEGREES OVER HIGHS YESTERDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HELPED TO BUMP TEMPS UP.
SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS USUAL WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WHEN THIS HAPPENED EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT TONIGHT FOR WIND SPEEDS TO
DROP OFF...STILL EXPECT THEM TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR MORNING LOW TEMPS BUT BUMPED THEM UP ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY A FEW DEGREES AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
BACK ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND REDEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
SPEEDS COMPARABLE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.  WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...CANNOT SEE ANY REASON FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES MORE ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO
MID-UPPER 80S FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPROCK...LOW 90S FOR THE EASTERN
SOUTH PLAINS INCLUDING LUBBOCK...AND MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
FLATTENED UA RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CLOSE OUT THE END OF
THE WEEK. AN UA DISTURBANCE SKIRTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADA WILL SEND DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT COULD IMPINGE
ON THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS TOMORROW EVENING. IT IS PROGGED
TO BRIEFLY STALL BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI MORNING. LACK OF UL SUPPORT
COUPLED WITH RATHER DRY LOW-MID LEVELS /PWATS LESS THAN 0.60
INCHES/ WILL LEAD TO NIL CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED SOME ON FRI /80S/ AS THE
NEARBY SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE FRONT ENCOURAGES SLIGHTLY BREEZY SFC
WINDS TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...WHICH IN TURN
ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THEREAFTER...TEMPS
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S ON SAT...COURTESY OF THE
RETURN OF SFC LEE TROUGHING AND THUS BREEZY S-SW WINDS. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A CLOSED PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CALI ON SAT...AND PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE DESERT SW SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AGREEMENT WRT THE TRACK...SPEED AND EVOLUTION OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE...AS IT IS EXHIBITED TO OPEN UP WHILE TRAVERSING THE
DESERT SW...AND QUICKLY MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTN BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION BY THE EVENING. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHILST AN UPTICK IN PWATS OCCURS /0.50-1.00 INCH/. BY
THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CWA...IT WOULD BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER STATE WITH HINTS OF ITS PACIFIC FRONT HASTILY STREAMING DRY
AIR ONTO THE CAPROCK...THUS DRY-SLOTTING THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT NEARING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE SUN AFTN
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH /FRONTOGENETICAL/ FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
UL SUPPORT...TO AID IN SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OFF THE CAPROCK AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE /WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRYER AND
THE ECMWF REMAINS RELATIVELY VOID OF PRECIP. HAVE ELECTED TO BUMP
POPS UP TO 14 PERCENT ACROSS THE SAID AREAS...WHICH IS JUST SHY OF
MENTIONABLE LEVELS.

A 1025+ MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPOSE PRESSURE RISES OF 10-15 MB PER 6 HRS SUN NIGHT /PER THE
GFS/...LEADING TO RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/. WEAKER WIND SPEEDS ARE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND
THUS THIS BEING DAY 6...IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL
HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIND SITUATION ATTM. NONETHELESS...BOTH
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL USHER IN 850 MB TEMPS OF 0 DEGREES
C TO -3 DEGREES C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY MON MORNING
/FREEZING TEMPS NW TO UPPER 30S SE/ AND A COOLER AFTN /50S AND 60S/.
ANOTHER UA TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH ITS
STRENGTH REMAINING IN QUESTION GIVEN SOME MODELS DEPICTING PRECIP
WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. GRADUAL WARMING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY OCCUR THROUGH
MID-WEEK COURTESY OF THE RETURN OF SFC SRLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF
UA RIDGING /HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BY WED/.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AGAIN...MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY.  WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME TOO STRONG ONCE
AGAIN WHICH IS THE MAIN REASON CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE. SO FAR
TODAY...ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN RED FLAG CRITERIA AND MOST OF
THESE ARE UNDER AN HOUR TOTAL TIME.  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING 5 PERCENT ARE STILL IN THE
CRITICAL RANGE ALONG WITH VERY DRY FUELS.  HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A
STRONG WIND MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY REACHING RED FLAG
CRITERIA BUT NOT THE NECESSARY TIME COMPONENT.  WILL EVALUATE
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO SEE WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING OR
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED. JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  86  47  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  89  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  90  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  92  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  92  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  91  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    48  93  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  95  52  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          55  95  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  95  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>043.

&&

$$

14/29
304
FXUS64 KLUB 091127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY
MORE SO AT KCDS. A 40 TO 50 KT SWERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
KEEP LLWS BELOW MENTION IN THE TAF. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY WITH
A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW ALLOWING FOR SOME DEEPENING OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WTX AND ERN NM. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AND WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ON THE CAPROCK WITH UPPER 80S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. S-SW BREEZES AT THE SFC THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE W-SW
AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH MIGRATES EAST ACROSS
THE CAPROCK...THEN RETURN BACK TO THE S-SW THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE
MILD OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND LOWS
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE UNTIL SUNDAY. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL NOT DO MUCH EXCEPT BRING IN SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND BEGIN TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEEP
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE 90 AS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS STILL IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
IT REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL. A CLOSED LOW MOVING ON SHORE
ON SATURDAY WILL GREATLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
WEST TEXAS. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION AS WELL. ALSO AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF RUN. MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO A WINDY DAY.
A FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AGAIN BRINGING
STRONG WINDS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
SHOT AT A FREEZE ON MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON DEPICTING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C.

FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WARM AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE SE
ROLLING PLAINS....WITH SUB 10 PERCENT RH ACROSS THE CAPROCK. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW-END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...AS A
MODEST 20-30 KT 700MB MAX PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR SRN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...TAPERING OFF GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL MEET THE RED
FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE
FROM STONEWALL COUNTY. WITH RAINFALL GENERALLY LACKING...DELAYING
GREEN-UP...THE FUELS WILL REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR SPREADING TO THE SURFACE.
FURTHERMORE...TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT FIVE
PERCENT OR LESS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY AGAIN BRING
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  44  88  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         85  48  89  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     85  49  90  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  49  90  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  53  91  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   85  50  90  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    86  50  91  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  55  94  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          86  52  93  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     87  55  94  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>043.

&&

$$

33

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