633
FXUS64 KLUB 121121
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT VIRGA SHOWERS OR
RATHER LIGHT SHRA MORE SO NEAR KCDS...BUT GIVEN REMOTE CHANCES OF
THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE ELECTED TO FORGO A PRECIP MENTION ATTM. SFC
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN /13-15 KTS/ AND STAY UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF A RATHER
BROAD UA TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS...AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE PERSISTENT
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS WESTERN OLD MEXICO. AS SUCH...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNW FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DISPLAYED THE CUTOFF LOW STREAMING SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THUS HAVING NO EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
PLAINS SENSIBLE WEATHER. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT NE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING IS COURTESY OF AN UA RIDGE NE OF THE REGION. THIS SAID
RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING...AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW BY MID-MORNING THANKS
TO A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH BY
THIS AFTN. AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUGGEST A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S.
THE NAM...SREF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC DISPLAY LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS ACROSS THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
AND SFC CONVERGENCE/DIFFUSED DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE. CONCURRENTLY...A
RELATIVELY WEAK 250 MB JET MAX /40-60 KTS/ WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHAT COULD MITIGATE
PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THE UA RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE NOSING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF
RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS /PWATS LESS THAN 0.80 INCHES/ WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING /MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS/. THIS INVERTED-V PROFILE FAVORS
ANOTHER ROUND OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A SLIM CHANCE FOR A
TRACE OF RAINFALL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE
NEAREST TO THE SFC TROUGH. COULD SEE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS BENEATH
THE VIRGA SHOWERS. WILL RAISE POPS TO 10 PERCENT AND INSERT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE MENTION ACROSS THE SAID AREA. TONIGHT...ANY
LINGERING VIRGA SHOWERS WILL DEMISE BUT SLIGHTLY BREEZY SSW WINDS
WILL ENSUE...GIVEN THE ENDURING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...WILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /50S/.
LONG TERM...
THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL CHANCE COMES WITH THE EJECTION OF THE NRN MEXICO LOW NEWD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE SLOW TO RETURN TO
FCST WITH BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE COMING TUESDAY
EVENING FAVORING ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WEDNESDAYS CHANCE
COMES DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS PROGGED TO BACK AND HOLDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THAT AREA. GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING
PRECIP WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEYOND THIS PRECIP CHANCES RATHER
UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANG ACROSS THE
AREA BUT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD LIKELY TO HELP STRENGTHEN
THE CAP. SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THEN HIGHS
WARMING TOWARD THE 90S LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 79 50 85 51 84 / 10 10 0 0 10
TULIA 80 53 87 55 85 / 10 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 79 54 87 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 79 55 85 56 84 / 10 10 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 81 55 86 58 85 / 10 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 80 55 83 55 84 / 10 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 80 55 86 56 85 / 10 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 84 57 91 59 87 / 10 10 0 0 10
SPUR 82 56 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 84 57 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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