Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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909
FXUS64 KLUB 311702
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY CLEARING THE FCST AREA...NOW SOUTH
OF KLBB BUT LINGERING NEAR KCDS. THAT MIGHT STAY THE CASE AT KCDS
THRU THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF AS LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION
NOT AS ROBUST THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. ANY TS THAT FORMS ACROSS NM LIKELY TO STAY WELL WEST OF
BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS
GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS LEAVING OUR AREA IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. T/TD SPREADS WERE FAIRLY
LOW...GENERALLY AROUND 3-6 DEGREES WITH LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION. RADAR RETURNS WERE WEST...NORTH...AND EAST OF THE
AREA WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING ACROSS OR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. 00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM RESULTING IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE STILL IS SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE AT
700 HPA BUT DRIER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWS UP IN THE 850
HPA MAP COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING CLOUDS
UNDERNEATH THEM. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO NW OK LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH WHERE THE DRIER AIR
WAS LOCATED ALOFT. SFC OBS SHOWS CEILINGS ARE STILL IN PLACE AND
EXPECT THE SUCKER HOLE AT CHILDRESS TO FILL IN SHORTLY AS WELL
RESULTING IN A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY KIND OF SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES
MOVING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WHICH MEANS THAT THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.  CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS TODAY AS MORNING CLOUD COVER PLUS
CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MODELS DO GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP CARRY
SOME OF THE STORMS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY WARRANT BARELY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER.  COOL MORNING WILL
START OFF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.  MAY SEE ANOTHER
BRIEF ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AS
WELL UNLESS ENOUGH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH TONIGHT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER
PLEASANT STRETCH OF EARLY AUGUST WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEST TEXAS.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY LATE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES MODESTLY
AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. EARLY ON...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ORIGINATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NM/CO MAKING A RUN FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AS IT
ADVANCES INTO A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THERE COULD BE ONE OR MORE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES THAT MAY HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION EASTWARD TO SOME
DEGREE...THOUGH MOST NWP AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT MAKE
IT BEYOND THE FAR WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...IF THEY MAKE IT ACROSS
THE NM/TX STATE LINE AT ALL. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOW THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR IS THEN PROGGED TO ADVECT OVER WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW VEERS...AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...WITH ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
STAYING PINNED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL TO THE WEST. THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AS ONE OR MORE SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES
EMERGES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN COULD SHIFT WHAT
REMAINS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS WHILE ALSO
BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS /PERHAPS INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS/ AND PROVIDING MODEST UPPER SUPPORT. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF
THINGS WILL HAVE TO BE RESOLVED OVER THE COMING WEEK...THOUGH WE DID
DECIDE TO ADD A MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S ON FRIDAY TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 70S MIXING IN OFF THE CAPROCK BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  59  80  60  81 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         76  59  82  61  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     77  60  82  63  82 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     79  61  84  64  84 /  10  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       79  63  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  61  85  62  86 /  10  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    80  63  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     79  63  85  66  87 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          82  63  86  65  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     83  65  88  67  90 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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