044
FXUS64 KLUB 172335
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
635 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG RESIDENT BOUNDARY ACROSS KLBB
TERMINAL THIS AFTN. MORE STABLE AIR IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
KEEPING STORMS AT BAY AT KCDS FOR THE MOMENT. MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MCS ROLLS EAST FROM
NM. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT ERRATIC WINDS
MAY IMPACT KLBB THROUGH EVENING BETWEEN STORM COMPLEX AND ONGOING
CONVECTION. MVFR CIGS LIKELY BEHIND CONVECTION THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR A POSSIBILITY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO
LARGE TO PUT IN TAF ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING TO LOOK ONEROUS BUT STILL
NOT SHOWING ITS HAND AS TO WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BEGIN
LOCALLY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME BULKY CU DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF ABILENE. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
KING...STONEWALL...DICKENS AND KENT COUNTIES LAST FEW HOURS. OVERALL
VERY PALTRY SURFACE WINDS NOT ADDING MUCH TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELDS OR UPSLOPE ALONG THE CAPROCK. MORE STABLE AIRMASS EVIDENT
OVER THE EASTERN PNHDL INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE SOME ELEVATED ECHOES HAVE TRIED TO FORM BUT OVERALL CIN IS
KEEPING SURFACE BASED STORMS AT BAY.
LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLD
ACTIVITY FORMING VCNTY THE BOUNDARY N-NE OF LUBBOCK WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS EVOLVING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS IN NM. LATEST OBJ ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES AXIS OF H7
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ERN PLAINS OF NM SE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHERE LATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40KT EXIST
OVERLAID ON MLCAPES OF 3-3.5KJ/KG. STORM MOTION VECTORS LATER THIS
EVENING FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS ERN NM TO MOVE ALONG
BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ROUGHLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF
THE US 84 CORRIDOR. INITIALLY SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE HIGH WITH
HODOGRAPHS INDICATING SPLITTING OR LEFT MOVING DOMINANT STORMS.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL BUT THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION INTO GREATER WIND THREAT LATE IN THE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION UPSCALES INTO LINEAR MCS WHICH
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SECONDARY ORGANIZED MCS
FURTHER N FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SHOULD HAVE SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
LATER IN THE EVENING POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING WITH SOUTHERN MOST
COMPLEX FURTHER LENGTHENING STORM DURATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
RAIN-COOLED AIR BEHIND EXITING MCS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH
EARLY AFTN TUE. MORE STORMS THEN LOOK TO FORM IN SIMILAR MANNER
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH STORM MOTION ONCE
AGAIN AIMED AT THE SOUTH PLAINS. AFTN TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE
TEMPERED BY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND RATHER WIDESPREAD FOOTPRINT OF
OVERNIGHT RAIN RESULTING IN HIGHS AOB CLIMO.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS
AT LEAST EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AS INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY
CONGEALS ACROSS NE AND E NM...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY
SEASONABLY FAST WNW WINDS ALOFT... WHICH SHOULD YIELD 40-50 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR WITH A STRONG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST VERY FAST ESE TO SE STORM
MOTIONS OF 40 TO 45 KTS... WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING
FROM STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
TO NEAR 2500 J/KG WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN DISCRETE
WHILE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. MUCH OF THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON
THE EVOLUTION OF TODAYS EVENTS... AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIM AS RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ALOFT AND WEAK SW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WHILE
MODEST MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE AREA DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS...STRONG CAPPING AND WEAK FORCING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO COULD CLIP WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF
THURSDAY-SUNDAY. GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND STOUT CAPPING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SEEMS IMPROBABLE... AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
ON ANY SPECIFIC DAY JUST YET. OTHERWISE... EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL BUT
NOT OPPRESSIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... WITH BREEZY WINDS AND PERSISTENT CIRRUS
COVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 85 63 93 62 / 60 30 40 10 10
TULIA 64 83 65 92 66 / 60 30 40 10 10
PLAINVIEW 67 84 66 93 67 / 60 30 40 10 10
LEVELLAND 68 89 68 94 69 / 60 30 30 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 87 68 94 69 / 60 30 30 10 10
DENVER CITY 68 91 69 95 68 / 60 20 20 0 10
BROWNFIELD 68 90 70 95 68 / 60 30 30 0 10
CHILDRESS 68 88 68 92 68 / 50 30 30 10 10
SPUR 70 89 71 96 68 / 60 30 30 10 10
ASPERMONT 73 91 71 97 71 / 60 30 30 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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