Area Forecast Discussion
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304
FXUS64 KLUB 221127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN STORMS REACHING THE KLBB
TERMINAL AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE CAN BE ACHIEVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01

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