Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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595
FXUS64 KLUB 211119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07

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