Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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437
FXUS64 KLUB 221124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VLIFR FOG AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...WITH KLBB VIS DROPPING BELOW 10 SM AND FEW DECKS BELOW
2000 FT AGL. WILL EXPECT KLBB TO FURTHER DETERIORATE LATER THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOG AND IFR DECKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOWARDS THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE UA LOW
DIGGING ESE ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
AID TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES LATER THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PER 08Z METARS...THUS COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST SFC MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN A LOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD. THE HRRR SOLUTION HANDLED THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUITE WELL YESTERDAY...AND SINCE
IT SHOWS A CONTINUAL WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WAS NOTED EAST OF THE
FA AND WITH THE AID OF A BIT OF UL SUPPORT FROM THE UA LOW ACROSS
NWRN OLD MEXICO...RADAR ANALYSIS DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY AREAS. WITH
THE LLJ PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE /PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.10
INCHES/...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A  THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.00 INCH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KTS...SUGGEST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTN WHERE THEREAFTER...MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A DRYING
PROFILE AND THE UA LOW MOVING EAST TOWARDS SE TX WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP EXITING THE REGION. BY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE W-SW SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM TODAY /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S/
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT /UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S/.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS
UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...POSSIBLY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY
BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A BRIEF INCURSION OF COLD AIR TOWARD FRIDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NOW
CONSENSUS IN THAT REGARD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  38  53  23  49 /  10   0  10  10   0
TULIA         67  40  53  25  52 /  10  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     67  41  56  26  53 /  20  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     66  42  60  27  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  43  61  27  54 /  20  10   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   65  41  62  28  53 /  20   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    65  42  61  28  54 /  20  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     67  45  62  32  56 /  30  10   0  10   0
SPUR          67  45  63  35  58 /  50  10   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     69  46  66  34  58 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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