Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

635
FXUS64 KLUB 151734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS. IT APPEARS LBB MAY HAVE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER SHOT THAN CDS TO EXPERIENCE CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT IMPACT
IS STILL A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS...WITH
THE BEST STORM CHANCES RESIDING TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...WE DID INCLUDE A VCTS REMARK AT LBB FROM 22Z WELL INTO
THE EVENING. OBVIOUSLY CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY DIRECT STORM IMPACTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE MADE TO EXPAND POPS EASTWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION AND SHORT-RANGE NWP CONTINUE TO
FAVOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG/NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MID/UPPER LEVEL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT WAS NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION...SEEN VISUALIZED IN SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA.
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO PEAK NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY...BEFORE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS INCREASED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALONG WITH RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW /AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS/ COULD SUPPORT A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR THOSE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET UNDER ANY STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES COULD
SUPPORT HYBRID-TYPE MICROBURSTS RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ACTIVITY
MAY EVEN TRY TO CONGEAL INTO A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS THIS EVENING
AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH A LESS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY TEND TO LIMIT ITS EASTWARD
EXPANSE. OVERALL...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT STILL
FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY
AS THE RICH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
AND COUPLES WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXACT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS TIMING.
PRECIP MENTION HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION OVER NM TAPERING OFF WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT
HELPED TRIGGER THIS CONVECTION IS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD AROUND A
593 HIGH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRESENT LEE TROF WILL HELP
DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK MCS ALONG A SURFACE THETA E
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROF AND SLOWLY PROGRESS IT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD PREVENT A FAST
MOVING MCS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE LIKELIHOOD TO
PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL AS PWATS WILL BE HIGH...AROUND 1.5
INCHES.

WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...MODELS HINT AT
A SMALL COMPLEX LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS...POSSIBLY A PRODUCT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS
WHICH IS BEING SUSTAINED WITH HELP FROM THE OVERHEAD SHORTWAVE. I
HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
EXISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. I HAVE ALSO KEPT HIGHS FOR TODAY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE
TO CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. LOWS FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD
BE RATHER PLEASANT AFTER BEING COOLED BY CONVECTION. LOWS OFF THE
CAPROCK WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM...
WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH
DURING THE NEXT WEEK...ALL IS NOT ABSOLUTE EVEN THOUGH IT IS AUGUST.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO ARIZONA AND REMAIN
OUT THERE INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
EDGES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  A
RESPECTABLE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY THOUGH ITS
EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE
CONVECTIVE MORPHOLOGY OF THE DAY BEFORE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SEEDING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  HAVE THEREFORE GENERALLY
BLANKETED POPS SAT AND SUN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH HAVE MADE
AN ATTEMPT TO DEMONSTRATE SOME SORT OF GRADIENT GIVEN THE MOST
LIKELY AREA OF PRECIPITATION EVIDENT WITH THIS MORNING/S DATA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF MAY ALLOW WEAKLY FORCED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK BUT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN
NWP...WILL KEEP WX GRIDS SILENT FOR THE TIME BEING AWAITING FURTHER
CLARITY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK THIS WEEKEND BEFORE NOTCHING DOWN
A FEW DEGREES NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  64  93  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
TULIA         64  95  66  94  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     65  94  66  94  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     65  96  66  94  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  96  69  94  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  95  66  95  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  97  67  94  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     71 101  71  99  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          69  99  68  97  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     73 101  72  99  72 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.