Area Forecast Discussion
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921
FXUS64 KLUB 310505
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH SHOULD FALL THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP LAYER LIFT
AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WAS TO BACK OFF FURTHER ON SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AS VEERING WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION SET IN PLACE. LOCAL
AMDAR/ACARS DATA ALSO DEPICT A WARM NOSE WITHIN THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 30S IN
THESE LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL VERTICAL PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST
LOW ENOUGH ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FOR MUCH FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT
THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR MOSTLY RAIN...WILL LET
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH INTO
NORTHWESTERN PARMER COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS VISIBILITIES ALSO BECOME RESTRICTED WITH RAIN
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. MAY SEE LIFR OR EVEN PERIODS OF VLIFR
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS RAIN CONTINUES. ANY THREAT OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH LOCAL PIREP REPORT DID RECORD LIGHT RIME ICING
AT FL110.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF LIFT IS STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN A WEST TO EAST TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS AN
AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 SPAN ACROSS THE FA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A VERY SLOW SATURATION OFF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW LEVELS NOT
BECOMING SATURATED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. BY THE TIME THE COLUMN DOES
SATURATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE FOR
JANUARY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8 INCHES ON THE CAPROCK AND
1 INCH OFF THE CAPROCK.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERPOWER
ANYTHING ELSE LEADING TO MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LESS WAA WILL BE SEEN. WITH A
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION....ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONG WAA
REGIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL. THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

LONG TERM...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING JUST NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL
SURGE...WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTER THESE TRENDS AND LIKELY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL. SO WE HAVE RETAINED DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BUT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND
BREEZES TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FROM THERE...DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A DECENT WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO COME IS A MODERATE
STRENGTH THOUGH SHALLOW CANADIAN COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A SURFACE 1040-ISH
MILLIBAR SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE SEE MAINLY THURSDAY AS A COOL DAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AND IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY THEN WITH A FLAT RIDGE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  32  41  32 /  70 100  80  20
TULIA         46  36  42  35 /  60 100  90  30
PLAINVIEW     46  37  43  36 /  50 100  90  30
LEVELLAND     44  37  45  36 /  60 100  90  20
LUBBOCK       44  38  45  36 /  50 100  90  30
DENVER CITY   45  37  49  38 /  70 100  80  20
BROWNFIELD    46  38  47  39 /  50 100  90  20
CHILDRESS     49  38  43  39 /  20  90  90  50
SPUR          49  38  45  40 /  20 100  90  40
ASPERMONT     47  40  48  43 /  20  90 100  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

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