Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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769
FXUS64 KLUB 220450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER 20Z
TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO READJUST POPS AND TWEAK SEVERAL OTHER SHORT TERM
GRIDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A
DECENT LINE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAS CONGEALED FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE WAS GENERALLY
EDGING EASTWARD...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CLOVIS AND BOOTLEG. THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
20-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ASIDE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE OUTFLOW...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IS LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED AND DEVELOP IS IN QUESTION.
HENCE...WE HAVE REORIENTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE REMOVING THE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. IF STORMS CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WE DID TWEAK THE
DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16

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