Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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202
FXUS64 KLUB 250434
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE EXISTS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW FOG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT EITHER TAF SITE BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES. IN FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK. THESE HIGHS ARE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NOT FAR FROM RECORD LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGHS AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 DEGREES /1959/ AND 94 DEGREES
/2011/...RESPECTIVELY...FOR OCTOBER 25TH /SATURDAY/. BEFORE
THEN...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE
BACK DOWN INTO 50S FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK MAY SEE LOWS BRIEFLY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S WITH EVEN A COUPLE
OF MIDDLE 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDY SOILS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE DEWPOINT...BUT THE RISK LOOKS EVEN MORE
LIMITED THAN THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED THE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WHAT IS A FAIRLY
STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THICKNESSES LOWER
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER WINDS VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL COUNTERACT MUCH OF THE COOLING
DUE TO LOWERING THICKNESSES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY HELPING LOWER TEMPS
TO OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE FOR THE WEEK. PRECIP LOOKING
UNLIKELY WITH TIMING OF INITIAL FRONT UNFAVORABLE AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LIKELY LIMITED FOR THE FRONT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY NWLY MID TO UPPER FLOW AND A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         54  86  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  85  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  85  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  84  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  92  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          53  88  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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