Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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472
FXUS64 KLUB 241732 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

.UPDATE...
A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ROUGHLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE AND TOWARD THE
FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME LATCHING ON TO THIS BUT IN
GENERAL WE EXPECT IT TO FOLLOW THE INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE S-SW.
THE STORMS /IF THEY MAINTAIN THEMSELVES/ WILL BE ENTERING A ZONE
OF VERY WEAK MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA WITHIN AN MID-LVL TROUGH
AXIS...THUS WE EXPECT IT TO PROPAGATE PRIMARILY ALONG IT/S
ESTABLISHED COLD POOL/S. IN ADDITION...DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM SE NM
INTO SW OKLA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE STORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY A HIGH CHANCE
MENTION FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH TO NW APPEAR TO HAVE
THE BEST ODDS OF INTERCEPTING THE CURRENT PANHANDLE STORMS.
MARGINALLY SEVERE /ONE INCH/ HAIL MAY BE A THREAT ACROSS OUT NRN
AND WRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&


.AVIATION...
THE MORNING TSRA AT KCDS HAS DIMINISHED TO -SHRA WITH INFREQUENT
THUNDER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN THE CHANCES DOWN TO A 4-HOUR
TEMPO PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP THE TAFS CLEAR OF TS FOR NOW BUT
AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ISOLATED TSRA POTENTIAL MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE
OF T-STORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014/

AVIATION...
KCDS ESPECIALLY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH SHOWERS IN THE SHORT TERM.
CONSIDERED OUTRIGHT -SHRA MENTION BUT CHOSE TO RETAIN VC FOR
NOW...KEEPING CLOSE EYE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GROW JUST
UPSTREAM. WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF AREA
CONNECTING WITH A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH LEADING TO A
DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TODAY.
SHOWERS ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB BUT WITH LESS DIRECT APPROACH
TO THE AIRPORT SO FAR. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS BOUNCING AROUND QUITE
A BIT ON PREFERRED SHOWER TIMES...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
PROB30 PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGN YET OF LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING
EITHER SITE. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL POOL WITHIN A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY APPROACHING 1000 TO 1500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM. UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT MAY STILL SEE BRIEFLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT WHERE THE CONVECTIVE ENERGY IS ABLE TO MAX OUT.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS GIVE VARIOUS SCENARIOS FOR HOW CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP...BUT HAVE IN COMMON A SLIGHT FAVOR TOWARDS
NORTHERN AREAS. PRECISE AREAS STILL ELUDE US...HOWEVER...SO WE CHOSE
TO EDGE THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THROUGH CENTER OF THE AREA
WHILE KEEPING BEST MENTION NORTHERN COUNTIES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO BORDER OUR EASTERN ZONES WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OTHERWISE
SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR GENERAL CHANCE MENTION. TEMPERATURES TODAY
CLOSE TO OR PERHAPS JUST A NOTCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AND SLUGGISH UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST SHOT AT STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE CAPROCK AND MORESO
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE BEST THETA-E
AXIS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN TERMS OF STRONG STORMS AT THIS TIME
GIVEN QUESTIONABLE LIFT ALONG WITH BEING IN VICINITY OF THE
SUBSIDING RIGHT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.

EXACTLY HOW FAST AND WHEN THIS FEATURE EXITS OFF TO THE EAST REMAINS
IN QUESTION. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THIS MORNING SUGGESTING
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY IF THE LOW HANGS BACK TO THE
WEST...BUT THE LACK OF ANY DEFINABLE LIFT AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF
LOW-MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS BEYOND THURSDAY. A
LARGE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SHOULD FINALLY KICK THE PREVIOUSLY MEANDERING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF STINT OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING
THE TRACK AND LOCAL IMPACTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG A DRYLINE
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS PROSPECTS FOR DRY WESTERLY FLOW.
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR MID-LATE WEEK AT THIS TIME REGARDING A
NEWLY CARVED OUT CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
EVENTUALLY USHERING IN A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK WITH MAINLY 80S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. LOWS WILL REMAIN STATIC AS WELL IN THE 50S/60S
WEST AND 60S EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  78  55  76  56 /  30  20  20  10  10
TULIA         59  80  55  78  57 /  30  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     60  79  56  77  57 /  30  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  78  57  76  57 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       60  79  57  76  57 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   59  77  57  76  58 /  20  20  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    59  79  58  77  58 /  20  20  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     62  84  60  82  60 /  30  20  10  10  10
SPUR          61  81  58  80  60 /  20  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     61  83  61  83  62 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

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