Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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805
FXUS64 KLUB 141135
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
535 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW...BUT COULD YET IMPACT KCDS THROUGH 14Z.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WERE SCATTERING OUT BEHIND THIS
CONVECTION...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KLBB AND DEVELOP
QUICKLY AT KPVW...WITH VFR RETURNING TO KCDS BY AROUND 15Z. NEXT
CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL APPROACH
30 KNOTS AT KPVW AND KLBB...AND THIS WIND WILL LIKELY LOFT SOME
BLOWING DUST TOO. THIS DUST COULD PUSH VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR
TERRITORY...THOUGH THIS IS NOT CERTAIN AND WE HAVE MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. WE WILL ISSUE AN AWW FOR KLBB WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE 30 KNOT THRESHOLD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A POTENT UPPER LOW WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AS OF 08Z. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH THE DRY SLOT...SUBSIDENCE...STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST FOLLOWING THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

EARLY ON...WE WILL WATCH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE 12Z AND INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FA. AS
OF 0845Z...CONVECTION INTENSITY HAS BEEN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...
THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WAS GREATEST. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
WITHIN A MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE COMBINED WITH THE QUICK STORM MOTION WILL
RESULT IN ONLY LIMITED AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS EARLY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING.

STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM
WEST TO EAST...BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...AS WE WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE PASSING CLOSED LOW. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...RELATIVELY DEEP
MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALL PROMOTE A
WINDY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD
FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL...EXPECT
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45-55 MPH...TO
BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...WE
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES ON THE
CAPROCK...PLUS HALL AND MOTLEY COUNTIES...VALID FROM 16Z TO 00Z.
OBVIOUSLY...THIS MAGNITUDE OF WINDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOFT SOME
BLOWING DUST TOO. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...BUT BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WILL STILL SECURE ANOTHER MILD DECEMBER DAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID-50S NORTHWEST TO MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

A COLDER NIGHT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT...THANKS MOSTLY TO THE LOSS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS PROVIDED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE
PAST WEEK AND A HALF. EVEN WITH WINDS NOT COMPLETELY DROPPING
OFF...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH MIDDLE 30S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. AND THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO
GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE CWA. WE SHOULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZING
TEMPS IN A WEEK OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS JET ENERGY TRAILING THE SYSTEM PASSES
OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. CLEAR
SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO RESPOND TO THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS. LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES OR IF IT
WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AS
SUCH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
GIVES THE FORECAST AREA A BROAD 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN MILD....HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE
PICTURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IF THE SLOWER...DEEPER TROUGH SOLUTIONS VERIFY. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND BUT COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ARRIVES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE HAS GONE BACK TO SUGGESTING
A LARGE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF WELL TO OUR WEST OR SOUTHWEST. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO TELL IF IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK OR WHEN/HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY PACIFIC FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN MUCH
DRIER AIR THAN HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION RECENTLY. EVEN
THOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN FROM SATURDAY...THEY WILL
STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S...WHICH WILL DRIVE THE RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 15-30 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE DRY CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED
20 FT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...COULD BRIEFLY ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THE RECENT PROLONGED MOIST STRETCH ALONG WITH
THE MOIST START TO THE DAY /AND EVEN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EARLY TODAY/ SHOULD TEND TO KEEP THE FUELS UNRESPONSIVE TO THE WINDY
AND DRY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL FORGO ISSUING ANY FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  26  53  23  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         58  29  54  24  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     59  29  54  24  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     60  29  56  27  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       61  30  56  27  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   61  30  58  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    61  31  57  28  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     65  36  59  30  51 /  50   0   0   0   0
SPUR          64  34  59  30  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     68  37  61  32  53 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

23/33/23

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