Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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466
FXUS64 KLUB 180510
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1110 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR DOMINATING WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOW-END SURFACE WIND GUSTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

AVIATION...
DRY...VFR...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A MODEST SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT CENTERED JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KLBB.
PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES TOMORROW AS A VERY WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATES OVERHEAD...NOT
WORTH A CHANGE GROUP. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING BENEATH SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. 2 PM READINGS RANGED FROM 35 UP IN DIMMITT TO 45 OUT IN
GUTHRIE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS YESTERDAY/S SNOW
SWATH MELTING AND RETREATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH SNOW LEFT BY THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN AREAS REMAINING IN
SHADE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT. STILL...LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE AND HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO PASS THROUGH
WEST TEXAS SOMETIME SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING.

IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...BY LATE TOMORROW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  AS IT DOES SO...FLOW
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
UPWARD CLIMB...ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER
LATE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY MUTE THIS WARMING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S...TO PERHAPS SOME LOW 60S ON
THE ROLLING PLAINS.  IN ADDITION...A VERY SUBTLE AND FAST MOVING
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT THIS WAVE FROM
IMPACTING THE REGION IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE SET TO EJECT FROM NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DRIFTED TOWARDS A DEEPER LOW TRACK AND A MORE POTENT WAVE...WHICH
LENDS ITSELF TO GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WEST TEXAS THAN
A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHALLOWER WAVE WOULD.  THUS...OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS TO THE CHC 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...AND ALSO EXTENDED SCHC 20% POPS FARTHER
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST AND DEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY FILLS
IN. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE
STRONG WINDS SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF A STRONG JET STREAK IS
PROGGED TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRIGGER
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         17  45  24  52  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     18  44  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     19  44  28  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       20  45  28  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   21  46  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    21  47  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     21  47  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          21  47  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     22  50  31  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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