Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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449
FXUS64 KLUB 122352 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME BLOWING DUST AT KLBB BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SW LATE THIS AFTN...COURTESY OF
THE EVER WATCHFUL UA DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS SRN NV/WRN AZ AND
TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. IT IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING
SHEARED OUT/OPENING UP...WHILST AIDING IN STREAMING A FETCH OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE /HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...SFC LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS DEEPENED WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO
OUR WEST. DEEP ABL MIXING UP TO AOA 600 MB EXISTS /THUS TAPPING INTO
20-35 KT WIND SPEEDS/...WHICH WOULD USUALLY REFLECT AT THE SFC AS
BREEZY WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THICK HIGH CLOUDS HAVE AIDED TO
SLOW DOWN/DELAY THE MIXING PROCESS AS SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH
EXISTS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY/. HOWEVER...CONTINUING ANTICIPATED
DEEPENED OF THE SFC LOW COULD GRADUALLY INCREASE SPEEDS OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHERMORE THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED
RATHER WARM CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER /80S AND 90S/ AS WELL
AS THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR TO ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA /DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIVER OF DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF
THE LOCATION OF A SHARP DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HENCE...IF THE CAP IS ABLE
TO BE BROKEN...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. BREEZY...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION THAT A 700 MB JET MAX OF 30+ KTS IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...WHICH...IF
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CLOUD COVER...COULD PROMOTE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED THEREBY CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO STAY UP A BIT /15-20
MPH/ WITH MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. CONCURRENTLY...MODELS
HINT AT LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEARING/BRUSHING ACROSS THE FAR SERN
ZONES...THANKS TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SAID LOCALES. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING DOES TAKE PLACE...IN ADDITION TO
THE EXISTENCE OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IS SLIM GIVEN RATHER DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT A 14 PERCENT POP WITH A SPRINKLE MENTION IS
APPROPRIATE.

THE UA DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A WEAKENED
OPEN WAVE TOMORROW AFTN. ANY RECOVERIES IN HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY
BECOME REPLACED BY DRIER AIR AS THE DISTURBANCE/S BREEZY PACIFIC
FRONT RACES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME
ALMOST DUE WRLY AT 20-25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW
TEENS/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME REALIZED. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S NW TO MIDDLE 80S SE. ONCE AGAIN...WARM...DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS /WITH LOCALIZED DUST/ WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER HIGH FIRE
DANGER DAY AND THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER INFO PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE REASON FOR THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE NOT BEING INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...IS
BECAUSE THE SAID AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS
WEAKER WINDS /AND COOLER TEMPS/ OCCUR JUST BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SET TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IMPACTS ARE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL BE TALKED ABOUT IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /29

LONG TERM...
TRENDS CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...DELAYING STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH UNTIL THE EVENING...WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL HAVE TO WORK ACROSS AN EXTREMELY
DRY AIRMASS. LATER SOLUTIONS HAVE PACKED STRONGER SURFACE FRONTAL
GRADIENT WHICH GIVES RISE TO OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER HABOOB-TYPE
BLOWING DUST SQUALL ARCING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT MAY BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY. FEW CHANGES TO LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING INTO MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BRIEF LOWER TO MID LEVEL SATURATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA WHICH WOULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRYNESS
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...THOUGH
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IF CONCENTRATED FORCING OCCURS...STILL SEEMS AN
OUTSIDE BET. LIFT PULLING EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
THE SHOWER CHANCES FAIRLY ABRUPTLY AND WE DISCONTINUED MENTION FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD AND DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WITH TRENDS
STILL SUPPORTING PERHAPS WIDESPREAD FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THE
CAPROCK AND PERHAPS NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DO NOT REACH AVERAGE LAST
SPRING FREEZE DATES FOR ANOTHER 5-8 DAYS OR SO AND A SUBSTANTIAL
FREEZE OCCURRED APRIL 4TH WITH MID TO UPPER 20S. WE ARE NOT READY
TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH YET AS WE WOULD LIKE TO CLEAR OUT OF THIS
WEEKENDS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION TO KEEP PRODUCT LOAD MANAGEABLE.
BUT THIS WILL NEED CONSIDERATION TOMORROW ALONG WITH THE WIND
POTENTIAL TOMORROW NIGHT. BEYOND...FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER BENIGN CONDITIONS. FRONTAL DOWNTURN STILL PLAUSIBLE
THURSDAY-ISH WHILE PROSPECTS TO LOAD DRY-LINE LATE NEXT WEEK STILL
DISTANT IF NOT OUTRIGHT DOUBTFUL. ALSO...SOLUTIONS HAVE MINORED
OUT THE LOW-LATITUDE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...SO ALL THIS FAVORS DRY IN OUR FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DEEPENING
OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTN...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
RESPONDED...BUT RATHER SLOWLY/GRADUALLY DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER
AIDING IN SLOWING DOWN/DELAYING ABL MIXING. AS SUCH...WIND SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY HARD-PRESSED TO REACH ITS TRUE POTENTIAL THOUGH...20-FOOT
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH EXISTS...WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY
BREEZY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE PROMOTED RATHER WARM CONDITIONS
/80S AND 90S/ WHICH IN TURN ENCOURAGES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TOO
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUS BREEZY...WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTN...WHICH CAN BE FURTHER VALIDATED BY SEVERAL LOCATIONS TICKING
OFF 5-30 RED FLAG MINUTES /LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST GETTING STARTED/.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

TOMORROW AFTN...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED BREEZY PACIFIC FRONT PROMOTING 20-FOOT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...AND ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND
THUS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. WARM...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  70  31  46  25 /  10  10  20  30   0
TULIA         55  73  33  46  25 /  10  10  20  20   0
PLAINVIEW     57  75  34  48  26 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND     57  80  36  50  27 /  10  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       58  80  37  50  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  39  52  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    57  81  39  51  28 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     63  79  39  51  30 /  10  10  10  20   0
SPUR          62  85  40  52  31 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     66  85  43  54  33 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

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