Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

341
FXUS64 KLUB 291155
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
655 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ROAMING THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY BREAKS. BOTH KLBB AND KCDS HAVE SEEN
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...THOUGH CURRENTLY
THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AND MVFR...RESPECTIVELY. BOTH TERMINALS
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH SUB-VFR CIGS PERHAPS LINGERING AT KCDS THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CIGS/BR TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A STORM FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN A TERMINAL IMPACT IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AS OF 08Z...CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...THEN BENT
SOUTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /FORMERLY A CLOSED LOW/ THAT WAS SHEARING OUT AS IT WAS
ACCELERATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON ITS WAY TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
WELL...WITH MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR INVADING FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES...AND GIVEN THIS HAVE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THOUGH A BULK...IF NOT ALL...OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
UNTIL PERHAPS A MINOR WAVE ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS TAKING ITS
TIME SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA...BUT IT IS PROGGED TO STALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IT HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND POCKETS OF FOG THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MID-MORNING...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT...PARTICULARLY OUT EAST.
MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BEHIND THE STALLING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LINGER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL
BE LACKING THIS AFTERNOON /AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE ON THE NEGATIVE
SIDE/...IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST NWP IS RATHER SPARSE WITH QPF
LOCALLY AND GENERALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE
CWA...SHOULD IT OCCUR. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS
DOWNWARD...BUT DID MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ALONG AND EAST
OF A BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS LINE. IF/WHERE STORMS DO
DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE DOWN A NOTCH FROM YESTERDAY...
BUT MODEST INSTABILITY COULD EXIST ALONG WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IN CONCERT COULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT
TO PROPAGATE THIS WAY THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE INFLOW WILL TEMPER CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE
FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY FAVORED HIGHS NEAR
GUIDANCE...THOUGH DID TRIM OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND MORE ENERGETIC IN THE WRF-NAM THAN THE
GFS...AND RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER WTX. THE NAM GENERATES T-STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND CARRIES IT SE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SREF IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE NAM BUT DOES INDICATE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN TX PANHANDLE. WE HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR NRN ZONES. A MODERATE ULJ WILL ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND IS SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THE MID-
LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHALLOW AND
BROAD TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THIS WAVE
BUT THE LATEST PROGS STALL IT OUT ACROSS THE OKLA OR NRN TX
PANHANDLES. SOME JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD OVER NW TX LATE SUNDAY BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

BEYOND MONDAY....SPRAWLING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BRING US A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SUPPORT A RETURN OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO NM AND THE RESULTING DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY EDGE EWD TOWARD WTX LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT THE SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO ADD ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD GET PRETTY TOASTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TIGHTENING GRADIENTS LEAD TO STRONGER S-SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S ON THE CAP TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THEN...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES SHOW A GRADUAL
DECLINING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGH TEMPS STILL
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  62  89  64  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TULIA         88  64  90  67  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     88  65  91  68  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     88  65  92  67  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       90  68  92  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   91  67  93  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    91  67  93  68  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     91  69  95  72  98 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          90  68  94  71  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     93  72  96  74  98 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.