Area Forecast Discussion
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528
FXUS64 KLUB 260908
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AN EMBEDDED RIPPLE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A BIT OF A TROUGH
FORMS FROM EL PASO TOWARD HERMOSILLO.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  AT
2AM...THIS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
BY MID MORNING.  BRIEFLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMUP JUST A
TAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING TODAY...CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS.  STORMY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA...THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UP ACROSS IOWA INTO NRN MN/WI...AND LIGHT RAIN
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TRAVEL SAFELY!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING THUS PROMOTING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILST UA TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE MID-WEST
AND ERN CONUS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO /60S/...AS THE ONCE NRLY SFC WINDS PROVIDED
BY TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER TO A SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY
FLOW COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS
FROM THE APPROACHING UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH AFTN W-SW SFC BREEZES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
IS SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM FOR LATE FALL. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER CAUSING THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND RESULT
IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPS
WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW NORM /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ TO START OFF THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID. CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SW AS AN UA PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PROGGED PWATS
NEARING 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH IT NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. SOME FINE DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED
OUT...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IMPLYING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN THE INSERTION OF
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  29  66  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         55  29  64  34  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  29  64  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  31  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  31  65  35  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  64  36  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  32  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  31  64  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  32  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  32  65  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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