Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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881
FXUS64 KLUB 260800
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS TIME AROUND...ALTHOUGH
HINTS OF CHANGES TO COME WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.  IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE TIME FRAME...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
APPEAR TO BE KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  OPTED TO TWEAK THE MORNING LOWS
UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  LIKEWISE...THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL ABOVE THE THRESHOLD
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME POCKETS OF SHALLOW FOG
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE TEMP/DPT SPREADS
ARE SMALLEST.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BROUGHT VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NUDGED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WHILE THIS WILL ACT TO REDUCE 1000-500MB HEIGHTS...ANY MINUSCULE
COOLING EFFECT THIS MAY HAVE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN MITIGATED BY
THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  THESE
WINDS...BROUGHT ON BY AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL LIKELY PICK
UP TO BETWEEN 15-20 MPH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS READINGS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS WILL YET AGAIN PUT THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY... WHICH ARE CURRENTLY 88 AND 93 DEGREES AT LBB
AND CDS...RESPECTIVELY.  HIGH CLOUDS BROUGHT ON BY THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY COMBINE WITH LINGERING BREEZY SW WINDS HELP
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT.  OPTED TO SIDE
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM
LAST NIGHT/S WRAP-UP.  A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PASS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THUS WILL GIVE US A COUPLE OF FRONTS BETWEEN NOW AND
NEXT WEEKEND.  OUR FIRST FRONT MONDAY NIGHT IS NOW DRY...AS
EXPECTED...ON ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR EAST.  WILL CONTINUE NON-ZERO
POPS...BUT PROBABILITIES CERTAINLY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN FCST
ATTM.  TIMING ON THE NEXT FRONT CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME TIME
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT MORE OF A
BACK-DOOR TRAJECTORY FOR US ON THE SECONDARY SURGE WHICH COMES IN
FRIDAY MORNING.  SATURDAY THEN SEES AN ONSET OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS
RETURN FLOW AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST.  SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY WILL YIELD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEK IN
WEST TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  77  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         87  58  80  41  65 /   0   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     87  57  79  44  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     87  57  80  42  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  59  82  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  57  83  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    86  57  85  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  62  87  49  70 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          87  58  86  48  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     89  60  88  52  70 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26

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