Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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144
FXUS64 KLUB 180444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT NEAR KCDS
AND WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO KLBB BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR AT KCDS. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VISBYS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KLBB
ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT WILL BE REDUCED IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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