635
FXUS64 KLUB 250431
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THESE SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START BETWEEN 6Z AND 10Z...FAVORING THE
EARLIER SIDE AT KLBB AND THE LATER SIDE AT KCDS. THE CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THOUGH PROSPECTS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LINEAR MCS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THAT WENT UNRESOLVED BY
MANY MODELS WAS LIKELY ENHANCING A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
FROM THE TRANS-PECOS NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LACKLUSTER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE
NEAREST ENHANCED CU AND CUMULONIMBI LOCATED FROM NEAR HASKELL/TX
NORTH TO MANGUM/OK UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...CHOSE TO REMOVE PRECIP MENTION OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR TSTRMS COULD SNEAK WESTWARD
WITH TIME IN SELY FLOW ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
STORMS CURRENTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AS BREEZY SELY WINDS PULL
RICHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY...
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW LOOK LESS THAN IDEAL AS THE CONVECTIVELY-
INDUCED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
RESULTS IN EVEN BROADER SUBSIDENCE/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING BACKED INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE
DRYLINE WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
OUR IMPROVING LL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTRMS PRACTICALLY ANYWHERE IN OUR DOMAIN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTACT.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS
POINT WOULD APPEAR TO BE AROUND WEDNESDAY WHEN A SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE GIVES THE DRYLINE A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER EASTWARD PUSH
AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELL STORMS. THE
ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM
THAN THE GFS MODEL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 84 60 93 60 / 10 20 20 20 20
TULIA 61 83 60 92 64 / 10 20 20 10 20
PLAINVIEW 62 84 61 91 64 / 10 20 20 10 20
LEVELLAND 63 84 62 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
LUBBOCK 65 85 63 92 65 / 10 20 20 10 20
DENVER CITY 65 84 61 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
BROWNFIELD 63 85 62 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
CHILDRESS 65 87 66 93 68 / 20 20 20 10 10
SPUR 64 84 63 91 64 / 10 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 65 84 66 92 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/33/23
614
FXUS64 KLUB 242353
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
653 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FLIRT WITH
KCDS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND HAVE INSERTED A VCTS MENTION WITH
THIS IN MIND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CIGS/FOG AT THE TERMINALS BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR CIGS APPEAR BEST AT KLBB WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS WERE MAINTAINED...THOUGH KCDS COULD ALSO SEE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. IN FACT...A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH CHANCES OF A DIRECT IMPACT AT A TERMINAL ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LINEAR MCS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THAT WENT UNRESOLVED BY
MANY MODELS WAS LIKELY ENHANCING A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
FROM THE TRANS-PECOS NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LACKLUSTER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE
NEAREST ENHANCED CU AND CUMULONIMBI LOCATED FROM NEAR HASKELL/TX
NORTH TO MANGUM/OK UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...CHOSE TO REMOVE PRECIP MENTION OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR TSTRMS COULD SNEAK WESTWARD
WITH TIME IN SELY FLOW ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
STORMS CURRENTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AS BREEZY SELY WINDS PULL
RICHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY...
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW LOOK LESS THAN IDEAL AS THE CONVECTIVELY-
INDUCED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
RESULTS IN EVEN BROADER SUBSIDENCE/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING BACKED INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE
DRYLINE WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
OUR IMPROVING LL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTRMS PRACTICALLY ANYWHERE IN OUR DOMAIN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTACT.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS
POINT WOULD APPEAR TO BE AROUND WEDNESDAY WHEN A SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE GIVES THE DRYLINE A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER EASTWARD PUSH
AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELL STORMS. THE
ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM
THAN THE GFS MODEL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 84 60 93 60 / 10 20 20 20 20
TULIA 61 83 60 92 64 / 10 20 20 10 20
PLAINVIEW 62 84 61 91 64 / 10 20 20 10 20
LEVELLAND 63 84 62 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
LUBBOCK 65 85 63 92 65 / 10 20 20 10 20
DENVER CITY 65 84 61 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
BROWNFIELD 63 85 62 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
CHILDRESS 65 87 66 93 68 / 20 20 20 10 10
SPUR 64 84 63 91 64 / 10 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 65 84 66 92 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/33/23
366
FXUS64 KLUB 242044
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...
LINEAR MCS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THAT WENT UNRESOLVED BY
MANY MODELS WAS LIKELY ENHANCING A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
FROM THE TRANS-PECOS NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LACKLUSTER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE
NEAREST ENHANCED CU AND CUMULONIMBI LOCATED FROM NEAR HASKELL/TX
NORTH TO MANGUM/OK UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...CHOSE TO REMOVE PRECIP MENTION OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR TSTRMS COULD SNEAK WESTWARD
WITH TIME IN SELY FLOW ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
STORMS CURRENTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AS BREEZY SELY WINDS PULL
RICHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY...
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW LOOK LESS THAN IDEAL AS THE CONVECTIVELY-
INDUCED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
RESULTS IN EVEN BROADER SUBSIDENCE/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING BACKED INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE
DRYLINE WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
OUR IMPROVING LL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTRMS PRACTICALLY ANYWHERE IN OUR DOMAIN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTACT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS
POINT WOULD APPEAR TO BE AROUND WEDNESDAY WHEN A SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE GIVES THE DRYLINE A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER EASTWARD PUSH
AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELL STORMS. THE
ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM
THAN THE GFS MODEL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 84 60 93 60 / 10 20 20 20 20
TULIA 61 83 60 92 64 / 10 20 20 10 20
PLAINVIEW 62 84 61 91 64 / 10 20 20 10 20
LEVELLAND 63 84 62 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
LUBBOCK 65 84 63 92 65 / 10 20 20 10 20
DENVER CITY 65 84 61 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
BROWNFIELD 63 85 62 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
CHILDRESS 65 87 66 93 68 / 20 20 20 10 10
SPUR 64 84 63 91 64 / 10 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 65 84 66 92 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/04
672
FXUS64 KLUB 241804 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
104 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW. SMALL UPDATE MOSTLY TO
BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY GIVEN RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS. POP-WISE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTN TSTRMS ARE TENDING TO
FAVOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN LIGHT OF A SLOWLY-RETREATING AREA OF
CUMULUS OBSERVED FROM QUANAH SOUTH TO HASKELL. RECENT HRRR RUNS
SEEM THE MOST CREDIBLE WITH INITIATION NEAR OUR EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES BY EARLY-MID AFTN WITH REDUCED CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
RECENT LUBBOCK RADAR AND WTM STATIONS HAVE SHOWN A SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWEST BETWEEN TAHOKA AND GRAHAM...ALTHOUGH I
AM NOT OPTIMISTIC THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON
THE CAPROCK AS WATER VAPOR SHOWS A NARROW ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE
SPREADING NORTH. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN CHECK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE THREATENED BY A FEW +TSRA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT CDS...HOWEVER LOW
COVERAGE OF STORMS IMPLIES KEEPING PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LOW CIGS AND/OR SOME LIGHT FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY SAT MORNING AT THE TERMINALS...SO HAVE INSERTED A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS MOIST SELY WINDS REMAIN INTACT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 60 84 60 93 / 20 20 20 20 20
TULIA 83 62 83 60 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 84 63 83 61 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 85 64 84 62 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 84 65 83 63 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 85 64 84 61 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
BROWNFIELD 85 65 84 62 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
CHILDRESS 83 66 85 66 93 / 30 20 20 20 10
SPUR 83 66 82 63 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 84 67 84 66 92 / 30 20 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/99/93
999
FXUS64 KLUB 241148
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
THE TAF FORECAST REMAINS NEBULOUS FOR TODAY BEGINNING THIS
MORNING. LOW CIGS AT KCDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING
AND THESE CIGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT KLBB. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
VERY HIGH SO A PROB30 MENTION WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...
OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF FORCING BOTH LARGE AND AT THE
MESOSCALE LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING WITH A LACK OF A FOCUSED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION BUT
THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE SHORT WAVES WITH THE FLOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL FOCUS RESOLVED BY MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE ONLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY BE A LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
LOW LEVEL ENHANCEMENT MAY BE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. FURTHERMORE...ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL BE
COMPOSED OF DOWNGLIDE.
THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY
WILL BALLOON TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. THE RAP EVEN SHOWS AN
ASTOUNDING 6000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AS MUCH AS THEY DID ON
THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP SURFACE DEW POINTS IN JUICY
TERRITORY RANGING FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAINTAIN RESPECTABLE VALUES BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES.
HODOGRAPHS DEPICT GOOD TURNING IN LOW LEVELS BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MID LEVELS. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROGS. SHEAR VECTORS FROM 0-6KM ARE ON THE ORDER OF ONLY
25-30KT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALLOWING FOR A
DELUGE OF RAINFALL. OVERALL...CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE POORLY
ORGANIZED FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE ALSO INITIATING BY LATE IN THE
MORNING WHICH SEEMS EQUIVOCAL GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAINED CAPPED UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON AMONG OTHER REASONS
DISCUSSED ABOVE. LASTLY...WITH DEW POINTS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX OUT
NEARLY AS MUCH TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY 80S FORECAST. JDV
LONG TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. MOISTURE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH MORE OR LESS OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA...LESS
WEST AND MORE EAST OF COURSE. THE SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL LIKELY
SLOSH MOSTLY BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHILE PRECISE LOCATIONS AT PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING
PERIODS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. INSTABILITY LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM RANGE. WEAK EJECTING
DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AT TIMES...WHILE WEAKLY
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO COULD GENERATE LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A STRONGER TROUGH STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO EJECT LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PERHAPS IN TWO OR MORE PARTS LIKE THE GFS OR AS A
STRONGER TROUGH OR UPPER LOW LIKE THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE BACKED UPPER FLOW AND EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AND OR THURSDAY AND MAY END UP WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. THIS IS A STRONG ENOUGH AND CONSISTENT
ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR NOW TO RAISE THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MID-WEEK WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW OR LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 60 84 60 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
TULIA 83 62 83 60 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 83 63 83 61 91 / 30 30 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 85 64 84 62 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 83 65 83 63 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 85 64 84 61 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
BROWNFIELD 85 65 84 62 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
CHILDRESS 83 66 85 66 93 / 30 30 20 20 10
SPUR 82 66 82 63 91 / 30 30 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 85 67 84 66 92 / 40 40 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/99/99
584
FXUS64 KLUB 240940
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
440 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF FORCING BOTH LARGE AND AT THE
MESOSCALE LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING WITH A LACK OF A FOCUSED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION BUT
THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE SHORT WAVES WITH THE FLOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL FOCUS RESOLVED BY MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE ONLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY BE A LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
LOW LEVEL ENHANCEMENT MAY BE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. FURTHERMORE...ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL BE
COMPOSED OF DOWNGLIDE.
THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY
WILL BALLOON TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. THE RAP EVEN SHOWS AN
ASTOUNDING 6000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AS MUCH AS THEY DID ON
THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP SURFACE DEW POINTS IN JUICY
TERRITORY RANGING FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAINTAIN RESPECTABLE VALUES BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES.
HODOGRAPHS DEPICT GOOD TURNING IN LOW LEVELS BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MID LEVELS. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROGS. SHEAR VECTORS FROM 0-6KM ARE ON THE ORDER OF ONLY
25-30KT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALLOWING FOR A
DELUGE OF RAINFALL. OVERALL...CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE POORLY
ORGANIZED FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE ALSO INITIATING BY LATE IN THE
MORNING WHICH SEEMS EQUIVOCAL GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAINED CAPPED UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON AMONG OTHER REASONS
DISCUSSED ABOVE. LASTLY...WITH DEW POINTS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX OUT
NEARLY AS MUCH TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY 80S FORECAST. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. MOISTURE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH MORE OR LESS OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA...LESS
WEST AND MORE EAST OF COURSE. THE SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL LIKELY
SLOSH MOSTLY BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHILE PRECISE LOCATIONS AT PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING
PERIODS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. INSTABILITY LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM RANGE. WEAK EJECTING
DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AT TIMES...WHILE WEAKLY
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO COULD GENERATE LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A STRONGER TROUGH STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO EJECT LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PERHAPS IN TWO OR MORE PARTS LIKE THE GFS OR AS A
STRONGER TROUGH OR UPPER LOW LIKE THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE BACKED UPPER FLOW AND EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AND OR THURSDAY AND MAY END UP WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. THIS IS A STRONG ENOUGH AND CONSISTENT
ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR NOW TO RAISE THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MID-WEEK WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW OR LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 60 84 60 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
TULIA 83 62 83 60 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 83 63 83 61 91 / 30 30 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 85 64 84 62 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 83 65 83 63 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 85 64 84 61 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
BROWNFIELD 85 65 84 62 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
CHILDRESS 83 66 85 66 93 / 30 30 20 20 10
SPUR 82 66 82 63 91 / 30 30 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 85 67 84 66 92 / 40 40 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/05
001
FXUS64 KLUB 240422
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN EITHER TAF. ALSO OF QUESTION IS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL WITH SOME
EXPECTATION OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING LATE TONIGHT. WILL FOLLOW MODEL
LEAD FAVORING KCDS ATTM. AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTN AND
EVENING...00Z MODEL RUN OFFERING LITTLE GUIDANCE. SOME EXPECTATION
THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH DETAILS RELATED TO SFC
BOUNDARIES AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PARTICULAR STILL
FAR FROM KNOW. WILL FAVOR KLBB OVER KCDS ATTM WITH PROB30 MENTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED MOST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS A
MOIST 40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ RIDES OVER THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THIS WAA REGIME WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
EXCEPT NEAR WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ONE STORM THAT
DID IMPACT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT DROPPED AN IMPRESSIVE 0.80 INCH IN
A SHORT TIME. WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TRY
AND SNEAK IN FROM EASTERN NM...THOUGH IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTY
BREACHING THE STATE LINE ATTM. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 86 60 81 60 / 30 50 30 20 20
TULIA 63 84 62 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 85 63 81 62 / 30 50 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 64 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 84 65 82 63 / 40 50 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 86 64 81 61 / 20 50 30 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 86 65 82 62 / 30 50 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 65 84 66 83 66 / 30 30 30 20 20
SPUR 67 82 66 82 64 / 50 50 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 84 67 83 68 / 50 30 40 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
675
FXUS64 KLUB 240311 AAB
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1011 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED MOST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS A
MOIST 40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ RIDES OVER THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THIS WAA REGIME WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
EXCEPT NEAR WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ONE STORM THAT
DID IMPACT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT DROPPED AN IMPRESSIVE 0.80 INCH IN
A SHORT TIME. WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TRY
AND SNEAK IN FROM EASTERN NM...THOUGH IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTY
BREACHING THE STATE LINE ATTM. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 86 60 81 60 / 30 50 30 20 20
TULIA 63 84 62 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 85 63 81 62 / 30 50 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 64 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 84 65 82 64 / 40 50 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 86 64 81 61 / 20 50 30 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 86 65 82 62 / 30 50 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 65 84 66 83 66 / 30 30 30 20 20
SPUR 67 82 66 82 64 / 50 50 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 84 67 83 68 / 50 30 40 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07
987
FXUS64 KLUB 240204 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 86 60 81 60 / 40 50 30 20 20
TULIA 63 84 62 81 61 / 40 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 85 63 81 62 / 40 50 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 64 81 61 / 40 50 30 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 84 65 82 64 / 40 50 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 86 64 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 86 65 82 62 / 50 50 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 65 84 66 83 66 / 40 30 30 20 20
SPUR 67 82 66 82 64 / 40 50 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 84 67 83 68 / 40 30 40 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07
133
FXUS64 KLUB 232334
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 86 60 81 60 / 40 50 30 20 20
TULIA 63 84 62 81 61 / 50 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 85 63 81 62 / 60 50 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 64 81 61 / 50 50 30 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 84 65 82 63 / 60 50 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 86 64 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 86 65 82 62 / 50 50 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 65 84 66 83 66 / 60 30 30 20 20
SPUR 67 82 66 82 64 / 60 50 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 84 67 83 68 / 60 30 40 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
434
FXUS64 KLUB 231736
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOR SEVERE TSRA IN THE VICINITY
OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THE PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT EACH TERMINAL THRU EARLY
EVENING....BUT LOW CHANCES OF -TSRA AND -SHRA WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS...TURBULENCE AND HAIL WILL BE FOUND
IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS AS WELL HAS BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HVY
RAIN AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME REGARDING COVERAGE AND TIMING. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
RETURN FRI MID-MORN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 59 82 60 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
TULIA 88 61 83 62 82 / 60 50 50 30 20
PLAINVIEW 92 62 84 63 82 / 60 60 50 30 20
LEVELLAND 94 62 84 64 82 / 40 50 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 94 62 86 65 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
DENVER CITY 93 62 85 64 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 93 62 86 65 83 / 30 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 89 64 85 66 84 / 60 60 30 30 20
SPUR 94 64 87 66 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
ASPERMONT 95 67 87 67 84 / 20 60 30 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
988
FXUS64 KLUB 231243
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
743 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EDGING THROUGH KCDS THOUGH NOT MUCH NOTICEABLE
WIND SHIFT. BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ABOUT 40 MILES OR SO NORTH OF
KLBB LATER TODAY BUT WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD SAG INTO BOTH TAF
SITES WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BETTER HANDLED IN SHORTER TERM
TAF UPDATE IF NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KCDS AND SOUTHEAST OF KLBB
WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT STILL SHOULD EASE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EDGED THE SURFACE DRY-LINE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...NOW OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE WESTWARD JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT
GENERATING AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TURNING OR HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED UNITS OR
GREATER WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS UPSTAIRS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR A TORNADIC THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR AS LARGE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE DRY-LINE ALTHOUGH TURNING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT LATER TODAY PROBABLY
WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...PRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL ALSO MORPH MORE
INTO HIGH WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO WILL OCCUR EARLY AS HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPER-CELLS MAY
DEVELOP...WHILE EXTENDING AS WELL INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PHASE
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG OUTFLOW EAST OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT. WE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR
THE DRY-LINE...AND ALSO DURING THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELDS.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
LINGERING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE DIVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE COLD POOL DOMINANT AT THIS POINT AND SUBSEQUENTLY FALL APART AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
POSITION NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE OR ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION DUE TO THE WESTERN PROXIMITY OF THE
DRYLINE. MAY SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE
PULLED BACK ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MIDWEEK.
DETAILS AS TO LEAD IMPULSES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY FAVORING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX
FARTHER EAST AND CONFINE STORM CHANCES MORESO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THOUGHT THIS WARRANTED
ADDING LOW END MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS...PUSHING THEM FARTHER EAST EACH DAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO ONGOING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DECREASED DIURNAL
RANGES SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 59 82 60 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
TULIA 88 61 83 62 82 / 60 50 50 30 20
PLAINVIEW 92 62 84 63 82 / 60 60 50 30 20
LEVELLAND 94 62 84 64 82 / 40 50 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 94 62 86 65 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
DENVER CITY 93 62 85 64 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 93 62 86 65 83 / 30 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 89 64 85 66 84 / 60 60 30 30 20
SPUR 94 64 87 66 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
ASPERMONT 95 67 87 67 84 / 20 60 30 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
323
FXUS64 KLUB 230946
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
446 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT STILL SHOULD EASE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EDGED THE SURFACE DRY-LINE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...NOW OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE WESTWARD JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT
GENERATING AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TURNING OR HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED UNITS OR
GREATER WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS UPSTAIRS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR A TORNADIC THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR AS LARGE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE DRY-LINE ALTHOUGH TURNING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT LATER TODAY PROBABLY
WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...PRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL ALSO MORPH MORE
INTO HIGH WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO WILL OCCUR EARLY AS HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPER-CELLS MAY
DEVELOP...WHILE EXTENDING AS WELL INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PHASE
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG OUTFLOW EAST OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT. WE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR
THE DRY-LINE...AND ALSO DURING THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELDS.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
LINGERING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE DIVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE COLD POOL DOMINANT AT THIS POINT AND SUBSEQUENTLY FALL APART AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
POSITION NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE OR ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION DUE TO THE WESTERN PROXIMITY OF THE
DRYLINE. MAY SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE
PULLED BACK ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MIDWEEK.
DETAILS AS TO LEAD IMPULSES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY FAVORING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX
FARTHER EAST AND CONFINE STORM CHANCES MORESO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THOUGHT THIS WARRANTED
ADDING LOW END MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS...PUSHING THEM FARTHER EAST EACH DAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO ONGOING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DECREASED DIURNAL
RANGES SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 59 82 60 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
TULIA 88 61 83 62 82 / 60 50 50 30 20
PLAINVIEW 92 62 84 63 82 / 60 60 50 30 20
LEVELLAND 94 62 84 64 82 / 40 50 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 94 62 86 65 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
DENVER CITY 93 62 85 64 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 93 62 86 65 83 / 30 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 89 64 85 66 84 / 60 60 30 30 20
SPUR 94 64 87 66 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
ASPERMONT 95 67 87 67 84 / 20 60 30 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/31
717
FXUS64 KLUB 230453
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
40+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ EXPANDING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE UP ENOUGH AT KLBB TO KEEP LLWS AT BAY...BUT
LIGHTER AND BACKED WINDS AT KCDS ARE ENOUGH TO RAISE CONCERNS OF
LLWS THERE. THE LLJ WAS GRADUALLY CARRYING BETTER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF MVFR CIGS AT KCDS TOWARD
MORNING...BUT CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE
JET TOWARD MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
NORTHEAST OF KCDS. INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT/NEAR THE TERMINALS WILL BE AROUND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF ONE OF THESE STORMS DIRECTLY
IMPACTS A TERMINAL A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
.THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM...
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD FROM THE MS
VLY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LATTER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL
BE A CRUCIAL PLAYER IN OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW.
ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TX WAS
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE WAA REGIME WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET KICKS IN...DRAGGING MID 50S TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID
50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH-DEGREE OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL TO NW OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR
US BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE/ACCELERATE THE FRONT TO THE SW...AND HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DOES NOT PARTICULARLY HELP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTION. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO OUR NE ZONES AROUND MID-DAY...AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE FA IN MODEST...ALBEIT
INCREASING...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LVL
WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. ON THE CAPROCK...SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A DRYLINE IS
LIKELY TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE CAPPING
MAY INITIALLY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CINH GOING
TO ZERO BY AROUND 21 UTC. THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CI AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS BRISCOE...FLOYD COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SWISHER/HALE COUNTIES. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID CELL
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR SHOULD BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LOOK LIKE A STRONG BET TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...FCST 0-1 KM EHI VALUES > 2 NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. LCL/S WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE AROUND 0 UTC. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THEN STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE A SMALL RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE
WINDOW OF TORNADIC THREAT FAIRLY SHORT.
FORECAST PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE IN THE EVENING AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH NEAR THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM...
A PROTRACTED ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIES AHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FINAL WEEK OF
MAY AS SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
MOST OF WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD ENSURE MINIMAL EASTERLY DRYLINE MIXING
EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY FOR A
LONG TIME! BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...OPTED TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE IN ANTICIPATION OF MILDER NIGHTS AND NOT-AS-HOT
AFTERNOONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWEST /LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ AND RECEIVES SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LIFT FROM AN INTENSIFYING SELY LLJ. COUPLING OF THIS LLJ WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD ONLY BOLSTER DEEP ASCENT SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT. PROVIDED THIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST OR DRY ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND
EVENT. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE ON THE RISE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PROPAGATION/REDEVELOPMENT INTO A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAIN TOTALS IN SOME LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. RECENT SURVEY BY OUR
REGIONAL HYDROLOGIST SHOWED MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FUELS IN SOME
AREAS FAVORED TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...SO THIS
WOULD ONLY AMPLIFY RUNOFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PLAUSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THIS MCS GIVEN A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ DIRECTED OVER THE CWA.
HISTORY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS OR ECMWF CAMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...THEN
ROUND TWO OF TSTRMS SHOULD BE IN STORE FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST EXPOSING THE SOUTH PLAINS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS FLOW REGIME CAMPS OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO
HAVE ENDED MENTION OF ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTORMS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY INEVITABLY BE EXTENDED IN FURTHER IN
TIME IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUFFICIENT MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 89 59 82 60 / 10 20 30 40 20
TULIA 61 89 62 83 62 / 10 40 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 62 90 64 84 63 / 10 30 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 64 92 64 84 64 / 0 20 40 40 20
LUBBOCK 66 93 66 86 65 / 0 20 50 40 30
DENVER CITY 63 92 65 85 64 / 0 20 30 50 20
BROWNFIELD 66 93 65 86 65 / 0 20 40 40 30
CHILDRESS 62 88 65 85 66 / 10 60 60 30 20
SPUR 67 92 67 87 66 / 10 30 60 40 30
ASPERMONT 71 95 69 87 67 / 10 20 60 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07/23
480
FXUS64 KLUB 230001
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
701 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
A 45+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO STAY UP ENOUGH AT KLBB TO KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF...BUT SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LATE
TONIGHT AT KCDS AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE INSERTED LLWS THERE. THIS
LLJ WILL CARRY IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KCDS THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE TAF. INSTEAD...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HENCE...HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS
RESULTING IN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
..THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM...
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD FROM THE MS
VLY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LATTER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL
BE A CRUCIAL PLAYER IN OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW.
ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TX WAS
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE WAA REGIME WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET KICKS IN...DRAGGING MID 50S TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID
50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH-DEGREE OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL TO NW OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR
US BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE/ACCELERATE THE FRONT TO THE SW...AND HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DOES NOT PARTICULARLY HELP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTION. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO OUR NE ZONES AROUND MID-DAY...AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE FA IN MODEST...ALBEIT
INCREASING...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LVL
WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. ON THE CAPROCK...SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A DRYLINE IS
LIKELY TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE CAPPING
MAY INITIALLY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CINH GOING
TO ZERO BY AROUND 21 UTC. THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CI AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS BRISCOE...FLOYD COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SWISHER/HALE COUNTIES. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID CELL
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR SHOULD BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LOOK LIKE A STRONG BET TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...FCST 0-1 KM EHI VALUES > 2 NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. LCL/S WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE AROUND 0 UTC. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THEN STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE A SMALL RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE
WINDOW OF TORNADIC THREAT FAIRLY SHORT.
FORECAST PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE IN THE EVENING AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH NEAR THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM...
A PROTRACTED ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIES AHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FINAL WEEK OF
MAY AS SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
MOST OF WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD ENSURE MINIMAL EASTERLY DRYLINE MIXING
EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY FOR A
LONG TIME! BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...OPTED TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE IN ANTICIPATION OF MILDER NIGHTS AND NOT-AS-HOT
AFTERNOONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWEST /LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ AND RECEIVES SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LIFT FROM AN INTENSIFYING SELY LLJ. COUPLING OF THIS LLJ WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD ONLY BOLSTER DEEP ASCENT SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT. PROVIDED THIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST OR DRY ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND
EVENT. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE ON THE RISE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PROPAGATION/REDEVELOPMENT INTO A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAIN TOTALS IN SOME LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. RECENT SURVEY BY OUR
REGIONAL HYDROLOGIST SHOWED MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FUELS IN SOME
AREAS FAVORED TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...SO THIS
WOULD ONLY AMPLIFY RUNOFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PLAUSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THIS MCS GIVEN A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ DIRECTED OVER THE CWA.
HISTORY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS OR ECMWF CAMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...THEN
ROUND TWO OF TSTRMS SHOULD BE IN STORE FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST EXPOSING THE SOUTH PLAINS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS FLOW REGIME CAMPS OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO
HAVE ENDED MENTION OF ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTORMS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY INEVITABLY BE EXTENDED IN FURTHER IN
TIME IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUFFICIENT MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 89 59 82 60 / 10 20 30 40 20
TULIA 61 89 62 83 62 / 10 40 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 62 90 64 84 63 / 10 30 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 64 92 64 84 64 / 0 20 40 40 20
LUBBOCK 66 93 66 86 65 / 0 20 50 40 30
DENVER CITY 63 92 65 85 64 / 0 20 30 50 20
BROWNFIELD 66 93 65 86 65 / 0 20 40 40 30
CHILDRESS 62 88 65 85 66 / 10 60 60 30 20
SPUR 67 92 67 87 66 / 10 30 60 40 30
ASPERMONT 71 95 69 87 67 / 10 20 60 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07/23
926
FXUS64 KLUB 222100
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...
...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM...
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD FROM THE MS
VLY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LATTER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL
BE A CRUCIAL PLAYER IN OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW.
ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TX WAS
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE WAA REGIME WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET KICKS IN...DRAGGING MID 50S TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID
50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH-DEGREE OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL TO NW OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR
US BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE/ACCELERATE THE FRONT TO THE SW...AND HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DOES NOT PARTICULARLY HELP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTION. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO OUR NE ZONES AROUND MID-DAY...AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE FA IN MODEST...ALBEIT
INCREASING...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LVL
WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. ON THE CAPROCK...SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A DRYLINE IS
LIKELY TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE CAPPING
MAY INITIALLY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CINH GOING
TO ZERO BY AROUND 21 UTC. THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CI AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS BRISCOE...FLOYD COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SWISHER/HALE COUNTIES. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID CELL
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR SHOULD BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LOOK LIKE A STRONG BET TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...FCST 0-1 KM EHI VALUES > 2 NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. LCL/S WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE AROUND 0 UTC. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THEN STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE A SMALL RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE
WINDOW OF TORNADIC THREAT FAIRLY SHORT.
FORECAST PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE IN THE EVENING AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH NEAR THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM...
A PROTRACTED ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIES AHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FINAL WEEK OF
MAY AS SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
MOST OF WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD ENSURE MINIMAL EASTERLY DRYLINE MIXING
EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY FOR A
LONG TIME! BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...OPTED TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE IN ANTICIPATION OF MILDER NIGHTS AND NOT-AS-HOT
AFTERNOONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWEST /LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ AND RECEIVES SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LIFT FROM AN INTENSIFYING SELY LLJ. COUPLING OF THIS LLJ WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD ONLY BOLSTER DEEP ASCENT SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT. PROVIDED THIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST OR DRY ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND
EVENT. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE ON THE RISE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PROPAGATION/REDEVELOPMENT INTO A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAIN TOTALS IN SOME LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. RECENT SURVEY BY OUR
REGIONAL HYDROLOGIST SHOWED MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FUELS IN SOME
AREAS FAVORED TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...SO THIS
WOULD ONLY AMPLIFY RUNOFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PLAUSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THIS MCS GIVEN A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ DIRECTED OVER THE CWA.
HISTORY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS OR ECMWF CAMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...THEN
ROUND TWO OF TSTRMS SHOULD BE IN STORE FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST EXPOSING THE SOUTH PLAINS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS FLOW REGIME CAMPS OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO
HAVE ENDED MENTION OF ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTORMS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY INEVITABLY BE EXTENDED IN FURTHER IN
TIME IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUFFICIENT MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 89 59 82 60 / 10 20 30 40 20
TULIA 61 89 62 83 62 / 10 40 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 62 90 64 84 63 / 10 30 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 64 92 64 84 64 / 0 20 40 40 20
LUBBOCK 66 93 66 86 65 / 0 20 50 40 30
DENVER CITY 63 92 65 85 64 / 0 20 30 50 20
BROWNFIELD 66 93 65 86 65 / 0 20 40 40 30
CHILDRESS 62 88 65 85 66 / 10 60 60 30 20
SPUR 67 92 67 87 66 / 10 30 60 40 30
ASPERMONT 71 95 69 87 67 / 10 20 60 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/93
460
FXUS64 KLUB 221144
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...MODERATE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PULLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREECH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL RESISTANCE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST RECENT WRF/NAM SOLUTION HAS COME MUCH MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS BUILDING A SUBSIDENCE CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN ABOUT 500 MB AND 600 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AS THE WAVE PULLS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A 55KT
JET MAXIMUM AT H300 MB ACROSS THE AREA...A LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WILL
START TO DEVELOP ASSISTING IN PULLING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARDS MORE CAPPING WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNALS OF A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD ARE STILL APPARENT VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. STILL...THIS MAY LEAD TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR AN INCREASE IN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OWING TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LOW LEVEL
JET USHERING RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX EAST SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK DURING PEAK HEATING. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CREATING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELICITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERFACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOOKS TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
TIMING OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS COUPLING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL RECEIVE A
BOOST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND LENGTHENS ALREADY CURVED HODOGRAPHS.
BELIEVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
BACKDOOR FRONT MEET BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT AND RETREATING DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THREATS AREAWIDE...WHILE
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST BASED ON WHERE
HELICITY/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE ENHANCED DUE TO BACKED WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
RANGE WILL ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING FRIDAY BY ENTERING NEW MEXICO
THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND LEE
TROUGHING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DRYLINE PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
THE DRYLINE TO BEGIN MIXING FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTH/ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL DICTATE STORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 57 86 59 82 / 0 10 20 30 30
TULIA 88 59 86 62 83 / 0 10 40 40 20
PLAINVIEW 89 61 87 64 84 / 0 10 30 40 20
LEVELLAND 90 63 89 64 84 / 0 10 20 30 20
LUBBOCK 90 65 90 66 86 / 0 10 20 40 20
DENVER CITY 90 64 93 65 85 / 0 10 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 92 65 90 65 86 / 0 10 20 30 20
CHILDRESS 91 63 88 65 85 / 10 10 60 60 20
SPUR 91 63 90 67 88 / 10 10 30 50 20
ASPERMONT 93 67 92 69 91 / 10 10 20 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
780
FXUS64 KLUB 220954
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
453 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PULLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREECH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL RESISTANCE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST RECENT WRF/NAM SOLUTION HAS COME MUCH MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS BUILDING A SUBSIDENCE CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN ABOUT 500 MB AND 600 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AS THE WAVE PULLS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A 55KT
JET MAXIMUM AT H300 MB ACROSS THE AREA...A LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WILL
START TO DEVELOP ASSISTING IN PULLING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARDS MORE CAPPING WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNALS OF A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD ARE STILL APPARENT VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. STILL...THIS MAY LEAD TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR AN INCREASE IN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OWING TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LOW LEVEL
JET USHERING RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX EAST SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK DURING PEAK HEATING. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CREATING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELICITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERFACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOOKS TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
TIMING OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS COUPLING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL RECEIVE A
BOOST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND LENGTHENS ALREADY CURVED HODOGRAPHS.
BELIEVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
BACKDOOR FRONT MEET BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT AND RETREATING DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THREATS AREAWIDE...WHILE
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST BASED ON WHERE
HELICITY/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE ENHANCED DUE TO BACKED WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
RANGE WILL ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING FRIDAY BY ENTERING NEW MEXICO
THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND LEE
TROUGHING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DRYLINE PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
THE DRYLINE TO BEGIN MIXING FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTH/ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL DICTATE STORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 57 86 59 82 / 0 10 20 30 30
TULIA 88 59 86 62 83 / 0 10 40 40 20
PLAINVIEW 89 61 87 64 84 / 0 10 30 40 20
LEVELLAND 90 63 89 64 84 / 0 10 20 30 20
LUBBOCK 90 64 89 66 86 / 0 10 20 40 20
DENVER CITY 90 64 93 65 85 / 0 10 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 92 65 90 65 86 / 0 10 20 30 20
CHILDRESS 91 63 88 65 85 / 10 10 60 60 20
SPUR 91 63 90 67 88 / 10 10 30 50 20
ASPERMONT 93 67 92 69 91 / 10 10 20 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/31
155
FXUS64 KLUB 220427
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD SKIRT TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KCDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. PSEUDO-
DRYLINE TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE-27 WITH POSSIBILTY
OF ISOLATED TS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN EAST OF KLBB AND
SOUTH OF KCDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KTS BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT ULJ ON THE SRN FLANK
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS MAINTAINING
SOME MODEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
THIS MID-AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS VERY MEAGER...SBCAPES UNDER 200
J/KG...SO WE BARELY EXPECT THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A
MID-LVL COLD POCKET ROTATING SWD AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
IS INCREASING MID-LVL INSTABILITY ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN
PANHANDLES WITH SBCAPES ANALYZED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL
PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS A
RESULT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SEWD TOWARD MAINLY OUR NRN ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE
ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. AN ISOLD STRONG STORM WITH
SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE AROUND SUNSET. SFC RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...A
RETURN TO SRLY WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS...RIGHT AROUND 90F EXPECTED FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO GENERATE SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CAPPED WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
LONG TERM...
INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL TREND MORE BLOCKY LATER
THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE RIDGING EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE OIL SANDS OF FORT
MCMURRAY, ALBERTA. FORTUNATELY...THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS WILL
FALL UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET RESIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION OF
STRONG HEIGHT RISES. THIS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SUBJECTING THE CWA TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A SEMI-STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
UPSHOT OF THIS IS AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR DOMAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY BEFORE THE MEAN DRYLINE BECOMES SITUATED WEST
OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN THEREAFTER...ULTIMATELY GIVING OUR FRIENDS
IN OKLAHOMA A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THEIR RECENT RASH OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THIS THURSDAY AND
CONCERNS THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE THE
500MB RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...THIS AREA IS
UNDER A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TX WILL BE
CHANNELED WEST-NORTHWEST WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
RICH PWATS BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND CRUCIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE
KEPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT ON TRACK WITH EARLIER FORECASTS FAVORING
STRONG LL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR N-NERN COUNTIES BY PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTHING SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVE CRITICAL FOR A TORNADIC THREAT AS 0-3KM HELICITIES NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY ARE SHOWN TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE THURSDAY FOR THE NERN QUARTER
OF OUR CWA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG CAPE AND PWATS AOA ONE
INCH APPEAR LIKELY.
THEREAFTER...GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITHIN SUSTAINED S-SELY 850MB FLOW. DAILY DRYLINE POSITION THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS THE NM STATE LINE AREA WITH
PERHAPS DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ENDED MENTION
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS IS OVER FIVE DAYS OUT. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER FLOW DOES MAINTAIN A FAVORABLY UNSETTLED SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW THAT COULD CERTAINLY WARRANT DAILY DRYLINE STORMS. BARRING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD WITHIN 5 DEGS OR SO OF
SEASONABLE AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 87 57 87 58 / 10 0 10 20 30
TULIA 53 88 59 87 61 / 10 0 10 30 30
PLAINVIEW 53 88 61 88 63 / 10 0 10 30 40
LEVELLAND 53 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 55 90 64 90 65 / 10 0 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 54 90 64 94 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 54 92 65 91 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 55 90 63 89 64 / 10 10 10 50 50
SPUR 55 90 63 91 66 / 0 10 10 20 40
ASPERMONT 58 93 67 93 68 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
690
FXUS64 KLUB 212307
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KTS BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT ULJ ON THE SRN FLANK
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS MAINTAINING
SOME MODEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
THIS MID-AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS VERY MEAGER...SBCAPES UNDER 200
J/KG...SO WE BARELY EXPECT THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A
MID-LVL COLD POCKET ROTATING SWD AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
IS INCREASING MID-LVL INSTABILITY ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN
PANHANDLES WITH SBCAPES ANALYZED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL
PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS A
RESULT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SEWD TOWARD MAINLY OUR NRN ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE
ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. AN ISOLD STRONG STORM WITH
SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE AROUND SUNSET. SFC RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...A
RETURN TO SRLY WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS...RIGHT AROUND 90F EXPECTED FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO GENERATE SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CAPPED WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
LONG TERM...
INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL TREND MORE BLOCKY LATER
THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE RIDGING EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE OIL SANDS OF FORT
MCMURRAY, ALBERTA. FORTUNATELY...THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS WILL
FALL UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET RESIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION OF
STRONG HEIGHT RISES. THIS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SUBJECTING THE CWA TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A SEMI-STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
UPSHOT OF THIS IS AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR DOMAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY BEFORE THE MEAN DRYLINE BECOMES SITUATED WEST
OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN THEREAFTER...ULTIMATELY GIVING OUR FRIENDS
IN OKLAHOMA A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THEIR RECENT RASH OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THIS THURSDAY AND
CONCERNS THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE THE
500MB RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...THIS AREA IS
UNDER A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TX WILL BE
CHANNELED WEST-NORTHWEST WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
RICH PWATS BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND CRUCIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE
KEPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT ON TRACK WITH EARLIER FORECASTS FAVORING
STRONG LL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR N-NERN COUNTIES BY PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTHING SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVE CRITICAL FOR A TORNADIC THREAT AS 0-3KM HELICITIES NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY ARE SHOWN TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE THURSDAY FOR THE NERN QUARTER
OF OUR CWA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG CAPE AND PWATS AOA ONE
INCH APPEAR LIKELY.
THEREAFTER...GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITHIN SUSTAINED S-SELY 850MB FLOW. DAILY DRYLINE POSITION THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS THE NM STATE LINE AREA WITH
PERHAPS DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ENDED MENTION
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS IS OVER FIVE DAYS OUT. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER FLOW DOES MAINTAIN A FAVORABLY UNSETTLED SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW THAT COULD CERTAINLY WARRANT DAILY DRYLINE STORMS. BARRING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD WITHIN 5 DEGS OR SO OF
SEASONABLE AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 87 57 87 58 / 10 0 10 20 30
TULIA 53 88 59 87 61 / 10 0 10 30 30
PLAINVIEW 53 88 61 88 63 / 10 0 10 30 40
LEVELLAND 53 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 55 90 64 90 65 / 10 0 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 54 90 64 94 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 54 92 65 91 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 55 90 63 89 64 / 10 10 10 50 50
SPUR 55 90 63 91 66 / 0 10 10 20 40
ASPERMONT 58 93 67 93 68 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
528
FXUS64 KLUB 212104
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT ULJ ON THE SRN FLANK
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS MAINTAINING
SOME MODEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
THIS MID-AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS VERY MEAGER...SBCAPES UNDER 200
J/KG...SO WE BARELY EXPECT THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A
MID-LVL COLD POCKET ROTATING SWD AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
IS INCREASING MID-LVL INSTABILITY ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN
PANHANDLES WITH SBCAPES ANALYZED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL
PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS A
RESULT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SEWD TOWARD MAINLY OUR NRN ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE
ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. AN ISOLD STRONG STORM WITH
SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE AROUND SUNSET. SFC RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...A
RETURN TO SRLY WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS...RIGHT AROUND 90F EXPECTED FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO GENERATE SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CAPPED WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL TREND MORE BLOCKY LATER
THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE RIDGING EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE OIL SANDS OF FORT
MCMURRAY, ALBERTA. FORTUNATELY...THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS WILL
FALL UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET RESIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION OF
STRONG HEIGHT RISES. THIS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SUBJECTING THE CWA TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A SEMI-STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
UPSHOT OF THIS IS AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR DOMAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY BEFORE THE MEAN DRYLINE BECOMES SITUATED WEST
OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN THEREAFTER...ULTIMATELY GIVING OUR FRIENDS
IN OKLAHOMA A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THEIR RECENT RASH OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THIS THURSDAY AND
CONCERNS THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE THE
500MB RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...THIS AREA IS
UNDER A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TX WILL BE
CHANNELED WEST-NORTHWEST WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
RICH PWATS BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND CRUCIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE
KEPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT ON TRACK WITH EARLIER FORECASTS FAVORING
STRONG LL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR N-NERN COUNTIES BY PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTHING SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVE CRITICAL FOR A TORNADIC THREAT AS 0-3KM HELICITIES NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY ARE SHOWN TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE THURSDAY FOR THE NERN QUARTER
OF OUR CWA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG CAPE AND PWATS AOA ONE
INCH APPEAR LIKELY.
THEREAFTER...GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITHIN SUSTAINED S-SELY 850MB FLOW. DAILY DRYLINE POSITION THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS THE NM STATE LINE AREA WITH
PERHAPS DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ENDED MENTION
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS IS OVER FIVE DAYS OUT. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER FLOW DOES MAINTAIN A FAVORABLY UNSETTLED SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW THAT COULD CERTAINLY WARRANT DAILY DRYLINE STORMS. BARRING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD WITHIN 5 DEGS OR SO OF
SEASONABLE AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 87 57 87 58 / 10 0 10 20 30
TULIA 53 88 59 87 61 / 10 0 10 30 30
PLAINVIEW 53 88 61 88 63 / 10 0 10 30 40
LEVELLAND 53 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 55 90 64 90 65 / 10 0 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 54 90 64 94 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 54 92 65 91 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 55 90 63 89 64 / 10 10 10 50 50
SPUR 55 90 63 91 66 / 0 10 10 20 40
ASPERMONT 58 93 67 93 68 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/93
666
FXUS64 KLUB 211824
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
124 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT FOG EARLY
WED MORNING AT EITHER TERMINAL...BUT WE PULLED MENTION AT KCDS
DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON WED
MORNING...INCREASING BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN CONVECTIVE TREND AHEAD
OF SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE BUT SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE EXISTS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR
TSTMS TO AFFECT KLBB /FM 12-15Z/ AND CDS /13-16Z/ THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO INSERT IN TAF ATTM. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES. FINALLY...BR/FG
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE COUNTRY/S SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE THE MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME HIGH BASED RADAR ECHOES TO
OUR NORTH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AROUND MID
DAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
CANADA. THIS WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN. AS MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACARS PLOTS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A STRENGTHENING
TREND AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH TIME. THIS IN TURN HAS ALREADY DRIVEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN LIFT REGION AROUND SUNRISE. THE
REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NEARLY STATION MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX ACROSS WESTERN QUAY COUNTY NM WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE
VICINITY. AS THIS BEGINS TO KICK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. AT PRESENT NLDN DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO AN OUTAGE
AND NO SFERIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE TTU LMA. IF IT CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED...WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MITIGATE THE
DOWNBURST THREAT. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS A LEAD IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...DESPITE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS...IT WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL TODAY AS
COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK.
LONG TERM...
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION WITH UPPER
LOWS LOCATED ACROSS EITHER COAST. AFTER DEEP MIXING BEHIND A ROLLING
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY DESTINED DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE BACKS THE DRYLINE
UP IN VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS USHERING
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
CREST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING RIDGE. THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PRESENT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BEST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS AREA. CAPPING WILL
ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL
COOLING INCREASES INSTABILITY ATOP A WARMING AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER. STORM CHANCES WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND CLOUD BASES BECOME ELEVATED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE DRYLINE STAYS PULLED BACK INTO NEW MEXICO OWING TO LEE TROUGHING
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. A STRENGTHENING EML MAY
PRECLUDE STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TO RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE.
QUESTIONS ARISE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TO WHEN
THE DRYLINE WILL START MIXING FARTHER EAST AGAIN AS TROUGHING
ENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO SLIDE THE RIDGE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 51 88 57 87 / 40 0 0 10 20
TULIA 79 52 90 59 87 / 50 0 0 10 30
PLAINVIEW 80 54 90 61 88 / 40 0 0 10 30
LEVELLAND 81 56 90 63 90 / 10 0 0 10 20
LUBBOCK 80 56 91 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 81 57 90 64 94 / 10 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 80 57 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 20
CHILDRESS 78 56 92 63 89 / 40 10 10 20 30
SPUR 77 59 93 63 91 / 10 0 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 76 60 95 67 93 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
381
FXUS64 KLUB 211138
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN CONVECTIVE TREND AHEAD
OF SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE BUT SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE EXISTS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR
TSTMS TO AFFECT KLBB /FM 12-15Z/ AND CDS /13-16Z/ THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO INSERT IN TAF ATTM. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES. FINALLY...BR/FG
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE COUNTRY/S SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE THE MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME HIGH BASED RADAR ECHOES TO
OUR NORTH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AROUND MID
DAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
CANADA. THIS WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN. AS MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACARS PLOTS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A STRENGTHENING
TREND AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH TIME. THIS IN TURN HAS ALREADY DRIVEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN LIFT REGION AROUND SUNRISE. THE
REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NEARLY STATION MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX ACROSS WESTERN QUAY COUNTY NM WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE
VICINITY. AS THIS BEGINS TO KICK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. AT PRESENT NLDN DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO AN OUTAGE
AND NO SFERIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE TTU LMA. IF IT CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED...WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MITIGATE THE
DOWNBURST THREAT. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS A LEAD IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...DESPITE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS...IT WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL TODAY AS
COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK.
LONG TERM...
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION WITH UPPER
LOWS LOCATED ACROSS EITHER COAST. AFTER DEEP MIXING BEHIND A ROLLING
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY DESTINED DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE BACKS THE DRYLINE
UP IN VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS USHERING
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
CREST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING RIDGE. THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PRESENT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BEST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS AREA. CAPPING WILL
ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL
COOLING INCREASES INSTABILITY ATOP A WARMING AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER. STORM CHANCES WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND CLOUD BASES BECOME ELEVATED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE DRYLINE STAYS PULLED BACK INTO NEW MEXICO OWING TO LEE TROUGHING
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. A STRENGTHENING EML MAY
PRECLUDE STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TO RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE.
QUESTIONS ARISE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TO WHEN
THE DRYLINE WILL START MIXING FARTHER EAST AGAIN AS TROUGHING
ENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO SLIDE THE RIDGE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 51 88 57 87 / 50 0 0 10 20
TULIA 79 52 90 59 87 / 40 0 0 10 30
PLAINVIEW 80 54 90 61 88 / 40 0 0 10 30
LEVELLAND 81 56 90 63 90 / 20 0 0 10 20
LUBBOCK 80 56 91 64 90 / 20 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 81 57 90 64 94 / 10 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 80 57 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 20
CHILDRESS 78 56 92 63 89 / 20 10 10 20 30
SPUR 77 59 93 63 91 / 10 0 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 76 60 95 67 93 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
810
FXUS64 KLUB 210945
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
445 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE COUNTRY/S SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE THE MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME HIGH BASED RADAR ECHOES TO
OUR NORTH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AROUND MID
DAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
CANADA. THIS WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN. AS MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACARS PLOTS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A STRENGTHENING
TREND AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH TIME. THIS IN TURN HAS ALREADY DRIVEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN LIFT REGION AROUND SUNRISE. THE
REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NEARLY STATION MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX ACROSS WESTERN QUAY COUNTY NM WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE
VICINITY. AS THIS BEGINS TO KICK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. AT PRESENT NLDN DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO AN OUTAGE
AND NO SFERIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE TTU LMA. IF IT CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED...WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MITIGATE THE
DOWNBURST THREAT. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS A LEAD IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...DESPITE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS...IT WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL TODAY AS
COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION WITH UPPER
LOWS LOCATED ACROSS EITHER COAST. AFTER DEEP MIXING BEHIND A ROLLING
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY DESTINED DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE BACKS THE DRYLINE
UP IN VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS USHERING
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
CREST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING RIDGE. THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PRESENT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BEST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS AREA. CAPPING WILL
ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL
COOLING INCREASES INSTABILITY ATOP A WARMING AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER. STORM CHANCES WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND CLOUD BASES BECOME ELEVATED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE DRYLINE STAYS PULLED BACK INTO NEW MEXICO OWING TO LEE TROUGHING
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. A STRENGTHENING EML MAY
PRECLUDE STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TO RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE.
QUESTIONS ARISE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TO WHEN
THE DRYLINE WILL START MIXING FARTHER EAST AGAIN AS TROUGHING
ENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO SLIDE THE RIDGE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 51 88 57 87 / 20 0 0 10 20
TULIA 79 52 90 59 87 / 20 0 0 10 30
PLAINVIEW 80 54 90 61 88 / 20 0 0 10 30
LEVELLAND 81 56 90 63 90 / 10 0 0 10 20
LUBBOCK 80 56 91 64 90 / 10 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 81 57 90 64 94 / 10 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 80 57 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 20
CHILDRESS 78 56 92 63 89 / 10 10 10 20 30
SPUR 77 59 93 63 91 / 10 0 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 76 60 95 67 93 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/31
068
FXUS64 KLUB 210433
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND FOCUS SHIFTS TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL TOWARD 12Z. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO HAVE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK VCNTY OF
KCDS WITH TS POTENTIAL LOOKING GREATER THAN IT PREVIOUSLY DID.
WOULD ANTICIPATE THE 12Z-15Z WINDOW TO OFFER THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR TSRA...BUT WITH THAT PERIOD IN FIRST NINE HOURS OF THE TAF AND
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH A TEMPO GROUP...WILL LEAVE
TS MENTION OUT ATTM. CHANCES LOOK LOWER AT KLBB WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS PLENTIFUL AND WITH BEST LIFT FROM THE DISTURBANCE
PASSING NORTH OF THE TAF SITE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE PAST BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING. TOWARD
SUNRISE TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. PRECIP CHANCES
STILL LOOKING TOO SMALL TO PLACE IN TAFS BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY WHAT IS CURRENTLY
UNFOLDING TO OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS/NWS NORMAN. DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH UPPER TEEN DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO NEAR 30 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...A COLD FRONT
WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OF A CLAYTON...DALHART...BORGER...TO
CANADIAN LINE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 6 AM TOMORROW
MORNING. THE MODELS DO INCREASE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THERE WILL BE A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROF
SHOULD HELP INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EVAPORATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY ALSO FAVOR A
FEW HEAT BURSTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE DISSIPATION OF ANY OF
THESE HIGH BASED SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY THE COVERAGE AND ALSO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT MENTIONABLE POPS IN AT THIS
TIME.
TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING A RAPID CUTOFF TO ANY PRECIPITATION. COOL AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST WITH
CLEAR SKIES.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TOMORROW DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UA LOW PROPAGATING ENE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S BY MIDWEEK...AS
AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE OMNIPRESENT
DRYLINE WILL SURGE TO NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER
WEDNESDAY...TO MORE SO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY...AS
THE LLJ RAMPS UP TO 30-40 KTS THUS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY THU MORNING/. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HINT AT AN UA IMPULSE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND MOVING NEAR THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH PERHAPS MAY BE A
SYNOPTIC SPARK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. PRECIP WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS UPSLOPE SFC
WINDS ENCOURAGE LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MORNING...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTN THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HENCE DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION /SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2.0-3.0 KJ/KG/. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST SINCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HOWEVER THE CAP APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL
HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE SAME
SCENARIO WILL EXIST EXCEPT FOR THE DRYLINE RETREATING FARTHER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY WEEKS END. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...NEAREST TO BEST MOISTURE AXIS.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE CAP APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. THUS STORMS MAY BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO COINCIDING WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE DRYLINE...AND THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UA RIDGE. HOWEVER BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE CAP
WOULD HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND IT IS NO WONDER
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DISPLAY PRECIP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. THIS SEEMS VALID AND WILL
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY EVENING-NIGHT. BY WEEKEND/S
END...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SHIFT EAST AS A BROAD UA LOW
DOMINATES THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
MAY THEREFORE NEAR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 10-14 PERCENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS.
EXPECT WARM TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW 80S ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED PRECIP AND THUS INCREASED CLOUDINESS.
COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BACK INTO THE 80S CWA-WIDE ON TUESDAY SINCE THE
UA RIDGE IS NO LONGER OVERHEAD.
FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SRLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTN COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S /8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/ WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT MORE SO ON THE CAPROCK.
LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS
SUCH...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.
THERE IS A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT ADDITIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 49 78 52 90 56 / 10 10 0 0 10
TULIA 53 79 54 92 58 / 10 10 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 55 80 56 92 60 / 10 10 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 57 83 56 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 57 82 57 93 63 / 10 10 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 55 84 55 92 63 / 0 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 59 84 56 92 64 / 0 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 59 81 57 94 62 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 63 86 57 95 62 / 10 10 0 10 10
ASPERMONT 63 87 61 97 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
579
FXUS64 KLUB 202320
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE PAST BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING. TOWARD
SUNRISE TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. PRECIP CHANCES
STILL LOOKING TOO SMALL TO PLACE IN TAFS BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY WHAT IS CURRENTLY
UNFOLDING TO OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS/NWS NORMAN. DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH UPPER TEEN DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO NEAR 30 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...A COLD FRONT
WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OF A CLAYTON...DALHART...BORGER...TO
CANADIAN LINE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 6 AM TOMORROW
MORNING. THE MODELS DO INCREASE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THERE WILL BE A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROF
SHOULD HELP INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EVAPORATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY ALSO FAVOR A
FEW HEAT BURSTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE DISSIPATION OF ANY OF
THESE HIGH BASED SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY THE COVERAGE AND ALSO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT MENTIONABLE POPS IN AT THIS
TIME.
TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING A RAPID CUTOFF TO ANY PRECIPITATION. COOL AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST WITH
CLEAR SKIES.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TOMORROW DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UA LOW PROPAGATING ENE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S BY MIDWEEK...AS
AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE OMNIPRESENT
DRYLINE WILL SURGE TO NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER
WEDNESDAY...TO MORE SO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY...AS
THE LLJ RAMPS UP TO 30-40 KTS THUS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY THU MORNING/. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HINT AT AN UA IMPULSE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND MOVING NEAR THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH PERHAPS MAY BE A
SYNOPTIC SPARK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. PRECIP WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS UPSLOPE SFC
WINDS ENCOURAGE LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MORNING...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTN THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HENCE DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION /SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2.0-3.0 KJ/KG/. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST SINCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HOWEVER THE CAP APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL
HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE SAME
SCENARIO WILL EXIST EXCEPT FOR THE DRYLINE RETREATING FARTHER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY WEEKS END. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...NEAREST TO BEST MOISTURE AXIS.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE CAP APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. THUS STORMS MAY BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO COINCIDING WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE DRYLINE...AND THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UA RIDGE. HOWEVER BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE CAP
WOULD HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND IT IS NO WONDER
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DISPLAY PRECIP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. THIS SEEMS VALID AND WILL
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY EVENING-NIGHT. BY WEEKEND/S
END...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SHIFT EAST AS A BROAD UA LOW
DOMINATES THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
MAY THEREFORE NEAR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 10-14 PERCENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS.
EXPECT WARM TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW 80S ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED PRECIP AND THUS INCREASED CLOUDINESS.
COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BACK INTO THE 80S CWA-WIDE ON TUESDAY SINCE THE
UA RIDGE IS NO LONGER OVERHEAD.
FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SRLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTN COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S /8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/ WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT MORE SO ON THE CAPROCK.
LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS
SUCH...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.
THERE IS A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT ADDITIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 49 78 52 90 56 / 10 10 0 0 10
TULIA 53 79 54 92 58 / 10 10 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 55 80 56 92 60 / 10 10 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 57 83 56 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 57 82 57 93 63 / 10 10 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 55 84 55 92 63 / 0 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 59 84 56 92 64 / 0 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 59 81 57 94 62 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 63 86 57 95 62 / 10 10 0 10 10
ASPERMONT 63 87 61 97 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
070
FXUS64 KLUB 202041
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY WHAT IS CURRENTLY
UNFOLDING TO OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS/NWS NORMAN. DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH UPPER TEEN DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO NEAR 30 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...A COLD FRONT
WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OF A CLAYTON...DALHART...BORGER...TO
CANADIAN LINE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 6 AM TOMORROW
MORNING. THE MODELS DO INCREASE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THERE WILL BE A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROF
SHOULD HELP INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EVAPORATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY ALSO FAVOR A
FEW HEAT BURSTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE DISSIPATION OF ANY OF
THESE HIGH BASED SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY THE COVERAGE AND ALSO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT MENTIONABLE POPS IN AT THIS
TIME.
TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING A RAPID CUTOFF TO ANY PRECIPITATION. COOL AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST WITH
CLEAR SKIES.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TOMORROW DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UA LOW PROPAGATING ENE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S BY MIDWEEK...AS
AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE OMNIPRESENT
DRYLINE WILL SURGE TO NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER
WEDNESDAY...TO MORE SO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY...AS
THE LLJ RAMPS UP TO 30-40 KTS THUS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY THU MORNING/. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HINT AT AN UA IMPULSE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND MOVING NEAR THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH PERHAPS MAY BE A
SYNOPTIC SPARK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. PRECIP WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS UPSLOPE SFC
WINDS ENCOURAGE LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MORNING...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTN THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HENCE DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION /SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2.0-3.0 KJ/KG/. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST SINCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HOWEVER THE CAP APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL
HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE SAME
SCENARIO WILL EXIST EXCEPT FOR THE DRYLINE RETREATING FARTHER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY WEEKS END. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...NEAREST TO BEST MOISTURE AXIS.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE CAP APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. THUS STORMS MAY BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO COINCIDING WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE DRYLINE...AND THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UA RIDGE. HOWEVER BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE CAP
WOULD HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND IT IS NO WONDER
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DISPLAY PRECIP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. THIS SEEMS VALID AND WILL
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY EVENING-NIGHT. BY WEEKEND/S
END...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SHIFT EAST AS A BROAD UA LOW
DOMINATES THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
MAY THEREFORE NEAR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 10-14 PERCENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS.
EXPECT WARM TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW 80S ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED PRECIP AND THUS INCREASED CLOUDINESS.
COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BACK INTO THE 80S CWA-WIDE ON TUESDAY SINCE THE
UA RIDGE IS NO LONGER OVERHEAD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SRLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTN COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S /8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/ WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT MORE SO ON THE CAPROCK.
LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS
SUCH...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.
THERE IS A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT ADDITIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 49 78 52 90 56 / 10 10 0 0 10
TULIA 53 79 54 92 58 / 10 10 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 55 80 56 92 60 / 10 10 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 57 83 56 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 58 82 58 93 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 55 84 55 92 63 / 0 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 59 84 56 92 64 / 0 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 59 81 57 94 62 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 63 86 57 95 62 / 10 10 0 10 10
ASPERMONT 63 87 61 97 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/29
824
FXUS64 KLUB 201139
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBB WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A
DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS. FRONT WILL IMPACT KLBB THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOP AROUND FL150 AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH IF ANY HEADWAY TODAY. THE FIRST IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY...ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIX QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS WILL BACK
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING
TAKES PLACE AND A DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ANOTHER TOASTY DAY IS THUS ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 100 SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED TO
BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
WARRANT MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOP AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BRING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS OR HEAT BURSTS TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEK THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DETAILS WHICH DESERVE SOME MENTION. MAIN STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
DRAGGING TROUGH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OFF
THE AREA BY 00Z. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW COMES ASHORE. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE THEN KEEPS THE ENERGY BLOCKED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES
AND YIELDS PROTRACTED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY THOUGH ITS EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER
PROGS INDICATED. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THOUGH WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION...THERE WILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THAT
SAID...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS FOR EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FCST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVING THE DRYLINE
ALL THE WAY TO NEW MEXICO. ONCE AGAIN...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. BY THURSDAY...DRYLINE
PROGRESSION WILL BE DAMPENED THUS REMAINING NEAR THE STATE LINE
WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PW UP IN THE
25MM RANGE WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND ON POPS FOR THU/FRI AND EVEN INTO
SATURDAY THOUGH WE MAY SEE STORMS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE STORMS
BEGIN TO FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH
COULD MOVE INTO THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONCERN WEST OF A VIGO PARK
TO LITTLEFIELD LINE. THIS IS WHERE WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AT AROUND
20 MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AREAWIDE. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT GIVEN THE
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM GUTHRIE TO JUSTICEBURG AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE LLJ WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EXTRA
DISTANCE FOR HIGHER MOMENTUM TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OFF THE
CAPROCK...WILL LEAVE THIS AREA OUT OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE TX/NM STATE LINE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 49 77 54 90 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 88 52 80 55 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 90 54 81 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 89 56 83 59 91 / 0 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 92 56 83 60 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 89 58 84 58 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 58 84 59 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 57 86 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPUR 96 58 87 60 94 / 0 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 101 62 89 63 97 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
369
FXUS64 KLUB 200915
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH IF ANY HEADWAY TODAY. THE FIRST IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY...ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIX QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS WILL BACK
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING
TAKES PLACE AND A DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ANOTHER TOASTY DAY IS THUS ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 100 SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED TO
BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
WARRANT MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOP AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BRING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS OR HEAT BURSTS TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEK THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DETAILS WHICH DESERVE SOME MENTION. MAIN STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
DRAGGING TROUGH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OFF
THE AREA BY 00Z. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW COMES ASHORE. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE THEN KEEPS THE ENERGY BLOCKED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES
AND YIELDS PROTRACTED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY THOUGH ITS EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER
PROGS INDICATED. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THOUGH WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION...THERE WILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THAT
SAID...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS FOR EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FCST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVING THE DRYLINE
ALL THE WAY TO NEW MEXICO. ONCE AGAIN...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. BY THURSDAY...DRYLINE
PROGRESSION WILL BE DAMPENED THUS REMAINING NEAR THE STATE LINE
WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PW UP IN THE
25MM RANGE WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND ON POPS FOR THU/FRI AND EVEN INTO
SATURDAY THOUGH WE MAY SEE STORMS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE STORMS
BEGIN TO FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH
COULD MOVE INTO THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONCERN WEST OF A VIGO PARK
TO LITTLEFIELD LINE. THIS IS WHERE WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AT AROUND
20 MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AREAWIDE. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT GIVEN THE
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM GUTHRIE TO JUSTICEBURG AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE LLJ WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EXTRA
DISTANCE FOR HIGHER MOMENTUM TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OFF THE
CAPROCK...WILL LEAVE THIS AREA OUT OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE TX/NM STATE LINE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 49 77 54 90 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 88 52 80 55 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 90 54 81 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 89 56 83 59 91 / 0 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 92 56 83 60 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 89 58 84 58 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 58 84 59 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 57 86 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPUR 96 58 87 60 94 / 0 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 101 62 89 63 97 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/26
537
FXUS64 KLUB 200434
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW BOTH KLBB AND KCDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH THAT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AT KLBB BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT ARE LESS CERTAIN AT KCDS. MODERATELY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD MONDAY EVENING. VFR CONTINUING.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SAG BRIEFLY INTO KCDS THOUGH PROBABLY NOT
KLBB LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE DRY WESTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES RIDING AROUND
AND UNDER THE LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMA SWINGING BY WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
LOCALLY...SO A DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LIFT WORKING ON THE DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM
ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD BRING A RISK OF MORE HEAT BURST ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT /LIKE
WE SAW A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO/ BUT IT APPEARS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUBDUED FROM WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...THE THREAT FOR HEAT BURSTS SHOULD BE LOW.
INSTEAD...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY /BUT LIGHT/
LATE TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH SAGS THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS BY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TO MID-60S SOUTHEAST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY RETURN.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE PLEASANT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORNING
BOUNDARY MIXES OUT AND WE TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY...THOUGH
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NEAR FRIONA TO AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK IN ASPERMONT.
LONG TERM...
INTI AL PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIKELY TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP SKIRTING ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES...THE BEST CHANCE POSSIBLY COMING MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SWRN KS TO NWRN PANHANDLE THEN MOVING ESEWD.
NOT SOLD ON PRECIP EITHER DEVELOPING OR MAKING IT INTO THE FCST
AREA IF IT DOES...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. SOME HIGH
TERRAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY BUT WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT MAKING POPS EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR THE FCST AREA. WILL GET
SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND STILL WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
CHANCE POPS AS ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IT TO OF THE DIRTY VARIETY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY
ARRIVING FROM THE PACIFIC...AND A SLOSHING DRYLINE. THURSDAY NOW
LOOKING LIKE IT HAS AS MUCH POTENTIAL AS FRIDAY AND WILL NUDGE
THOSE POPS UP SIMILAR TO WHERE FRIDAYS ARE.
FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY...DRY AND WARM TO HOT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WEST OF
THE DRYLINE WERE RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
MANY RED FLAG MINUTES HAVE ALREADY BEEN TALLIED. HOWEVER...THIS
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT AS OF LATE WITH
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET EASING THE FIRE DANGER.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH HUMIDITIES AGAIN FALLING TO AND BELOW 10
PERCENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT
ALL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 83 51 79 50 / 0 0 10 0 10
TULIA 53 87 54 80 55 / 0 0 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 55 89 56 80 57 / 0 0 10 0 10
LEVELLAND 55 91 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 57 93 55 84 58 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 91 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 57 93 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 61 94 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 60 98 60 84 60 / 0 0 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 65 101 63 89 62 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
265
FXUS64 KLUB 200016
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
716 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SAG BRIEFLY INTO KCDS THOUGH PROBABLY NOT
KLBB LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE DRY WESTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES RIDING AROUND
AND UNDER THE LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMA SWINGING BY WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
LOCALLY...SO A DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LIFT WORKING ON THE DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM
ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD BRING A RISK OF MORE HEAT BURST ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT /LIKE
WE SAW A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO/ BUT IT APPEARS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUBDUED FROM WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...THE THREAT FOR HEAT BURSTS SHOULD BE LOW.
INSTEAD...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY /BUT LIGHT/
LATE TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH SAGS THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS BY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TO MID-60S SOUTHEAST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY RETURN.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE PLEASANT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORNING
BOUNDARY MIXES OUT AND WE TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY...THOUGH
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NEAR FRIONA TO AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK IN ASPERMONT.
LONG TERM...
INTI AL PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIKELY TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP SKIRTING ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES...THE BEST CHANCE POSSIBLY COMING MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SWRN KS TO NWRN PANHANDLE THEN MOVING ESEWD.
NOT SOLD ON PRECIP EITHER DEVELOPING OR MAKING IT INTO THE FCST
AREA IF IT DOES...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. SOME HIGH
TERRAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY BUT WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT MAKING POPS EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR THE FCST AREA. WILL GET
SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND STILL WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
CHANCE POPS AS ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IT TO OF THE DIRTY VARIETY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY
ARRIVING FROM THE PACIFIC...AND A SLOSHING DRYLINE. THURSDAY NOW
LOOKING LIKE IT HAS AS MUCH POTENTIAL AS FRIDAY AND WILL NUDGE
THOSE POPS UP SIMILAR TO WHERE FRIDAYS ARE.
FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY...DRY AND WARM TO HOT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WEST OF
THE DRYLINE WERE RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
MANY RED FLAG MINUTES HAVE ALREADY BEEN TALLIED. HOWEVER...THIS
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT AS OF LATE WITH
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET EASING THE FIRE DANGER.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH HUMIDITIES AGAIN FALLING TO AND BELOW 10
PERCENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT
ALL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 83 51 79 50 / 0 0 10 0 10
TULIA 53 87 54 80 55 / 0 0 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 55 89 56 80 57 / 0 0 10 0 10
LEVELLAND 55 91 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 57 93 55 84 58 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 91 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 57 93 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 61 94 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 60 98 60 84 60 / 0 0 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 65 101 63 89 62 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
99/99/05
696
FXUS64 KLUB 192013
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES RIDING AROUND
AND UNDER THE LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMA SWINGING BY WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
LOCALLY...SO A DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LIFT WORKING ON THE DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM
ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD BRING A RISK OF MORE HEAT BURST ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT /LIKE
WE SAW A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO/ BUT IT APPEARS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUBDUED FROM WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...THE THREAT FOR HEAT BURSTS SHOULD BE LOW.
INSTEAD...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY /BUT LIGHT/
LATE TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH SAGS THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS BY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TO MID-60S SOUTHEAST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY RETURN.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE PLEASANT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORNING
BOUNDARY MIXES OUT AND WE TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY...THOUGH
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NEAR FRIONA TO AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK IN ASPERMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
INTIAL PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIKELY TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP SKIRTING ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES...THE BEST CHANCE POSSIBLY COMING MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SWRN KS TO NWRN PANHANDLE THEN MOVING ESEWD.
NOT SOLD ON PRECIP EITHER DEVELOPING OR MAKING IT INTO THE FCST
AREA IF IT DOES...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. SOME HIGH
TERRAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY BUT WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT MAKING POPS EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR THE FCST AREA. WILL GET
SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND STILL WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
CHANCE POPS AS ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IT TO OF THE DIRTY VARIETY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY
ARRIVING FROM THE PACIFIC...AND A SLOSHING DRYLINE. THURSDAY NOW
LOOKING LIKE IT HAS AS MUCH POTENTIAL AS FRIDAY AND WILL NUDGE
THOSE POPS UP SIMILAR TO WHERE FRIDAYS ARE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY...DRY AND WARM TO HOT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WEST OF
THE DRYLINE WERE RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
MANY RED FLAG MINUTES HAVE ALREADY BEEN TALLIED. HOWEVER...THIS
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT AS OF LATE WITH
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET EASING THE FIRE DANGER.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH HUMIDITIES AGAIN FALLING TO AND BELOW 10
PERCENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT
ALL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 83 51 79 50 / 0 0 10 0 10
TULIA 53 87 54 80 55 / 0 0 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 55 89 56 80 57 / 0 0 10 0 10
LEVELLAND 55 91 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 56 93 55 84 58 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 91 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 57 93 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 61 94 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 60 98 60 84 60 / 0 0 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 65 101 63 89 62 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
23/07
554
FXUS64 KLUB 191729
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. VFR WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPDATE...
MOISTURE THAT BRIEFLY INVADED THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MIXED/ADVECTED EASTWARD LEAVING
DRY...WARM AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS HAVE ALREADY PLUNGED TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-25+ MPH WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z. ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH SUNSET. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS...THOUGH DID OPT TO EXPAND THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FA NOT ENCOMPASSED BY THE RED FLAG
WARNING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.
DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 83 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 88 55 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 57 90 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 57 90 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 58 92 57 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 61 90 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 60 92 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 60 95 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 63 96 61 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 100 66 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
23/07/23
118
FXUS64 KLUB 191629 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
MOISTURE THAT BRIEFLY INVADED THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MIXED/ADVECTED EASTWARD LEAVING
DRY...WARM AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS HAVE ALREADY PLUNGED TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-25+ MPH WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z. ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH SUNSET. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS...THOUGH DID OPT TO EXPAND THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FA NOT ENCOMPASSED BY THE RED FLAG
WARNING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AROUND FL120.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.
DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 55 83 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 92 56 88 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 57 90 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 92 57 90 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 58 92 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 90 61 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 60 92 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 60 95 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 97 63 96 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 100 65 100 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
23/99
431
FXUS64 KLUB 191106
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AROUND FL120.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.
DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 55 83 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 92 56 88 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 57 90 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 92 57 90 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 58 92 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 90 61 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 60 92 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 60 95 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 97 63 96 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 100 65 100 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
31
936
FXUS64 KLUB 190903
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.
DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 55 83 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 92 56 88 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 57 90 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 92 57 90 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 58 92 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 90 61 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 60 92 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 60 95 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 97 63 96 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 100 65 100 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
31/26
921
FXUS64 KLUB 190441
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
RETREATING SURFACE DRY-LINE SHOULD HOLD VERY CLOSE TO KCDS-KLBB
LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEN A VEERED DRY WESTERLY WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WEAK
PACIFIC COLD FRONT PULLS THE SURFACE TROUGH A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SURFACE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW WIND SPEEDS NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM
BLOWING DUST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE AT REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT. THE TORNADO WATCH
WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
MOST TTU MESONET SITES HAVE DROPPED BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
CURRENT SMALL AREA OF TSRA PASSING AROUND KCDS WITH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT WITHIN A FEW MINUTES
OF 00Z. RETAINED VCTS FOR AN HOUR THOUGH WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KCDS THAT COULD STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOVE SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE GONE BY MID EVENING WITH DRY
VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 88 54 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 92 56 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 58 92 58 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 60 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 94 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 94 60 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 62 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 97 64 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 102 65 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
99/99/05
133
FXUS64 KLUB 190229
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
929 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE AT REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT. THE TORNADO WATCH
WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
MOST TTU MESONET SITES HAVE DROPPED BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
CURRENT SMALL AREA OF TSRA PASSING AROUND KCDS WITH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT WITHIN A FEW MINUTES
OF 00Z. RETAINED VCTS FOR AN HOUR THOUGH WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KCDS THAT COULD STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOVE SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE GONE BY MID EVENING WITH DRY
VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 88 54 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 92 56 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 58 92 58 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 60 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 94 59 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 94 60 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 62 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 97 64 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 102 65 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
01
098
FXUS64 KLUB 182351
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
CURRENT SMALL AREA OF TSRA PASSING AROUND KCDS WITH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT WITHIN A FEW MINUTES
OF 00Z. RETAINED VCTS FOR AN HOUR THOUGH WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KCDS THAT COULD STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOVE SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE GONE BY MID EVENING WITH DRY
VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 88 54 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 92 56 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 58 92 58 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 60 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 94 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 94 60 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 62 93 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 97 64 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 102 65 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
99/99/05
666
FXUS64 KLUB 182019
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
.LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 88 54 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 92 56 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 58 92 58 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 60 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 94 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 94 60 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 62 93 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 97 64 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 102 65 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/04
674
FXUS64 KLUB 181744
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT THE TERMINALS THIS TAF
CYCLE...WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL HAVE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT PROSPECTS OF A DIRECT IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF
HEAT BURSTS...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WAS NOW
EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH THE NEXT UA TROUGH OF CONSEQUENCE
APPROACHING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIFT WITH THE WESTERN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH VEERING FLOW WAS ALSO
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES WERE ALREADY BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS...THE FIRE
DANGER WILL BE HIGH. IT STILL APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING/MIXING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR MODES LIKELY.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND RATHER WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE A LOW TORNADO CHANCE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND BACK AND LCLS GRADUALLY LOWER. BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA IS IF AND FOR HOW LONG CONVECTION CAN STAY IN OUR
AREA. OF THE GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS STORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOW THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST
OF THE FA...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER QUITE
NARROW. THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
PEAKS...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE COOLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 87 54 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 57 92 56 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 57 94 58 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 59 94 57 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 96 60 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 60 95 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 63 95 62 92 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
SPUR 59 98 64 94 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 69 99 65 97 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99/99
184
FXUS64 KLUB 181631 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF
HEAT BURSTS...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WAS NOW
EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH THE NEXT UA TROUGH OF CONSEQUENCE
APPROACHING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIFT WITH THE WESTERN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH VEERING FLOW WAS ALSO
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES WERE ALREADY BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS...THE FIRE
DANGER WILL BE HIGH. IT STILL APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING/MIXING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR MODES LIKELY.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND RATHER WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE A LOW TORNADO CHANCE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND BACK AND LCLS GRADUALLY LOWER. BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA IS IF AND FOR HOW LONG CONVECTION CAN STAY IN OUR
AREA. OF THE GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS STORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOW THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST
OF THE FA...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER QUITE
NARROW. THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
PEAKS...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE COOLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FOG HAS
REMAINED NORTHEAST OF KCDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM WITHIN 5 NM OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE THE 12 KNOT THRESHOLD TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99
629
FXUS64 KLUB 181148
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FOG HAS
REMAINED NORTHEAST OF KCDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM WITHIN 5 NM OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE THE 12 KNOT THRESHOLD TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31
362
FXUS64 KLUB 181017
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31/26
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