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128
FXUS64 KLUB 302044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF LIFT IS STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN A WEST TO EAST TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS AN
AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 SPAN ACROSS THE FA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A VERY SLOW SATURATION OFF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW LEVELS NOT
BECOMING SATURATED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. BY THE TIME THE COLUMN DOES
SATURATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE FOR
JANUARY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8 INCHES ON THE CAPROCK AND
1 INCH OFF THE CAPROCK.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERPOWER
ANYTHING ELSE LEADING TO MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LESS WAA WILL BE SEEN. WITH A
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION....ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONG WAA
REGIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL. THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

.LONG TERM...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING JUST NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL
SURGE...WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTER THESE TRENDS AND LIKELY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL. SO WE HAVE RETAINED DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BUT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND
BREEZES TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FROM THERE...DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A DECENT WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO COME IS A MODERATE
STRENGTH THOUGH SHALLOW CANADIAN COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A SURFACE 1040-ISH
MILLIBAR SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE SEE MAINLY THURSDAY AS A COOL DAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AND IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY THEN WITH A FLAT RIDGE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  41  32  42 / 100  80  20  10
TULIA         35  42  35  44 / 100  90  30  10
PLAINVIEW     36  43  36  46 / 100  90  30  10
LEVELLAND     36  45  36  48 / 100  90  20  10
LUBBOCK       37  45  36  49 / 100  90  30  10
DENVER CITY   36  49  38  48 / 100  80  20  10
BROWNFIELD    37  47  39  49 / 100  90  20  10
CHILDRESS     38  43  39  50 /  90  90  50  10
SPUR          38  45  40  50 / 100  90  40  10
ASPERMONT     40  48  43  51 /  90 100  60  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
741
FXUS64 KLUB 301730
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW MIXING
IN. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FURTHER WORSEN TO IFR DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST
TOP- DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800
MB-750 MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL
PROMOTE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES
VERSUS LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH
PWATS /0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
COOL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK
AND RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE
USUAL BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE
NEXT FEW SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE
ALL LIQUID BY LATE AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
010
FXUS64 KLUB 301126
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...DUE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE HINTS OF DECKS
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW...JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
CYCLE. WIDESPREAD -RA WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A -RA/-SN MIX OCCURRING MORE SO
AT KLBB AND KPVW. WILL KEEP ONLY A -RA MENTION FOR NOW AS -SN WILL
LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800 MB-750
MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL PROMOTE
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES VERSUS
LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH PWATS
/0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND
RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE USUAL
BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE NW
SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
401
FXUS64 KLUB 300951
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800 MB-750
MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL PROMOTE
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES VERSUS
LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH PWATS
/0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND
RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE USUAL
BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE NW
SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
721
FXUS64 KLUB 300548
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH KLBB
AND KPVW LIKELY SEEING MVFR CEILINGS BY 00-01Z SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN KCDS SEEING SUB-VFR CEILINGS PRIOR
TO 06Z SATURDAY TO INSERT MENTION AT THIS TIME. -RA WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO IMPACT ALL SITES AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO REMAIN WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. A NOTABLE DRY
LAYER BELOW 750 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXISTENCE OF THIS LAYER ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER. SHOWERS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPROBABLE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS. A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
JUT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT A VERY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE BY ANY MEANS FOR LATE JANUARY...AND THERMAL
PROFILES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
BORDER...WITH A PHASE TRANSITION LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES THOUGH A BRIEF SLEET OR SNOW SHOWER CENTRAL ZONES ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW NORTHWEST BORDER WITH OUTSIDE
RISK OF MAYBE ANOTHER INCH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS GO-AROUND. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOIST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK
TO END SATURDAY EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOSTLY RAIN FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER UNDER
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
WEAKER WAA WILL BE SEEN. SNOW TOTALS UP TO FOUR INCHES WOULD BE
LIKELY AND MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
-2 TO 0C. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY DIPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER INTERRUPTION TO THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  31  35  29 /   0  20  60  80
TULIA         53  32  40  33 /   0  10  50  80
PLAINVIEW     53  34  40  33 /   0  10  50  90
LEVELLAND     56  33  38  33 /   0  20  60  90
LUBBOCK       56  34  40  34 /   0  10  50  90
DENVER CITY   56  35  39  34 /   0  30  60  90
BROWNFIELD    57  34  40  35 /   0  20  50  90
CHILDRESS     59  34  48  38 /   0   0  20  80
SPUR          58  34  45  36 /   0  10  20  80
ASPERMONT     60  35  48  39 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
742
FXUS64 KLUB 292336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...VEERING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AS CLOUDS THICKEN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN EARNEST. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
AT OR ABOVE FL040...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS OF
RAIN BECOMING A STRONG POSSIBILITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. A NOTABLE DRY
LAYER BELOW 750 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXISTENCE OF THIS LAYER ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER. SHOWERS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPROBABLE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS. A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
JUT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT A VERY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE BY ANY MEANS FOR LATE JANUARY...AND THERMAL
PROFILES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
BORDER...WITH A PHASE TRANSITION LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES THOUGH A BRIEF SLEET OR SNOW SHOWER CENTRAL ZONES ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW NORTHWEST BORDER WITH OUTSIDE
RISK OF MAYBE ANOTHER INCH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS GO-AROUND. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOIST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK
TO END SATURDAY EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOSTLY RAIN FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER UNDER
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
WEAKER WAA WILL BE SEEN. SNOW TOTALS UP TO FOUR INCHES WOULD BE
LIKELY AND MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
-2 TO 0C. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY DIPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER INTERRUPTION TO THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  35  29  37 /  20  60  80  50
TULIA         32  40  33  39 /  10  50  80  70
PLAINVIEW     34  40  33  40 /  10  50  90  70
LEVELLAND     33  38  33  41 /  20  60  90  60
LUBBOCK       34  40  34  42 /  10  50  90  70
DENVER CITY   35  39  34  42 /  30  60  90  60
BROWNFIELD    34  40  35  42 /  20  50  90  60
CHILDRESS     34  48  38  44 /   0  20  80  80
SPUR          34  45  36  43 /  10  20  80  80
ASPERMONT     35  48  39  44 /   0  20  80  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
831
FXUS64 KLUB 292054
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. A NOTABLE DRY
LAYER BELOW 750 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXISTENCE OF THIS LAYER ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER. SHOWERS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPROBABLE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS. A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
JUT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT A VERY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE BY ANY MEANS FOR LATE JANUARY...AND THERMAL
PROFILES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
BORDER...WITH A PHASE TRANSITION LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES THOUGH A BRIEF SLEET OR SNOW SHOWER CENTRAL ZONES ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW NORTHWEST BORDER WITH OUTSIDE
RISK OF MAYBE ANOTHER INCH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS GO-AROUND. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOIST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK
TO END SATURDAY EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOSTLY RAIN FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER UNDER
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
WEAKER WAA WILL BE SEEN. SNOW TOTALS UP TO FOUR INCHES WOULD BE
LIKELY AND MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
-2 TO 0C. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY DIPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER INTERRUPTION TO THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  35  29  37 /  20  60  80  50
TULIA         32  40  33  39 /  10  50  80  70
PLAINVIEW     34  40  33  40 /  10  50  90  70
LEVELLAND     33  38  33  41 /  20  60  90  60
LUBBOCK       34  40  34  42 /  10  50  90  70
DENVER CITY   35  39  34  42 /  30  60  90  60
BROWNFIELD    34  40  35  42 /  20  50  90  60
CHILDRESS     34  48  38  44 /   0  20  80  80
SPUR          34  45  36  43 /  10  20  80  80
ASPERMONT     35  48  39  44 /   0  20  80  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01
953
FXUS64 KLUB 291744
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD...
RELAXING A BIT AROUND SUNSET WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD VEER GRADUALLY TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
BY FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA TODAY WILL EDGE EASTWARD
ONSHORE BY FRIDAY...WITH THICKENING PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT KPVW AND KLBB JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
NORTH TO NE WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO LOWER TOWARD 10 KFT THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MAKE AS FAR EAST AS KPVW AND KLBB BY 12Z
FRIDAY...THE BEGINNING ECHOES OF A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHC TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. BETTER CHANCES BEYOND
THE SCOPE OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK TO THE EAST FROM THE CNTL ROCKIES AND
SRN ROCKIES TODAY ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH EYES THEN
FOCUSING ON A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE SRN CALIF/BAJA CALIF
COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FCST AREA...THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING CAUSING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL
TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS NEAR-RECORD HIGHS...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS
HIGHLY MODIFIED AND NOT REALLY COLD AT ALL. RESULT WILL BE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND FAVORING THE WARMER END
OF MOS GUIDANCE.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SEE MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGIN ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SWRN AND EVENTUALLY
WRN ZONES OF THE FCST AREA. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL TAKE A WHILE
WITH VERY DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS INITIALLY IN PLACE...AND WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP AT
THE SFC TO BE CONFINED TO WRN ZONES TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY AND BE PRETTY LIGHT. STILL...MODELS ARE BECOMING PRETTY
INSISTENT IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND
WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT...GENERALLY FAVORING THE MIDDLE GROUND
METMOS NUMBERS. PRECIP PHASE OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE AN ISSUE
NEAR THE STATE LINE NWD INTO THE EXTREME SRN PANHANDLE. MODEL
PROFILES TAKE MODEST MID LEVEL WARM NOSE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT OVER A FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH...SUGGESTING RAIN OR
SNOW TO BE PREFERRED DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
OF ICE. MOS TEMPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN A BIT TOO COLD IN SIMILAR
SCENARIOS RECENTLY...SO WILL WARM THEM A BIT TOWARD THE RAW MODEL
NUMBERS WHICH WILL PUT FCST LOWS RIGHT NEAR 32F FOR THIS AREA OF
CONCERN. WILL THUS RIDE THE FENCE WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DENVER CITY TO DIMMITT LINE AND ALL RAIN EAST OF
THERE AND WEST OF I-27 /NO POP MENTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE/.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP FRI-SAT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE ENTIRE CWA TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP LEVELS FOR THIS
WINTER SEASON /BEGINNING DEC 1/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS AN AGGRESSIVE SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAJA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW POISED ABOUT 500 MILES SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. BY EARLY
FRIDAY...INITIAL TOP-DOWN MOISTENING STILL LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER
HEALTHY RESISTANCE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER A STOUT
RIDGE AXIS...SO A TIGHT W-E POP GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED
FOR THIS PERIOD. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BLOSSOM BY FRI NIGHT AS
HEIGHT FALLS ENSUE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER RIDGE. COUPLED WITH
DEEP ASCENT FROM INCREASING UL DIVERGENCE...SEE NO REASON NOT TO
KEEP BOOSTING POPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA
3/4 INCH.

GREATEST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP PHASES MAINLY IN OUR W-NW ZONES
WHERE INITIAL WET BULB COOLING SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SNOW AT
TIMES. MODEL SOUNDING DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEP WARM NOSE UNFOLDING ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TULIA TO
MORTON LINE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SREF PLUME
ENSEMBLES IS PUSHING CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT MOSTLY SNOW SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. OUTSIDE OF WET BULBING EFFECTS...
THERMAL PROFILES EAST OF THESE ZONES DON/T STAND TO GAIN MUCH IF
ANY GROUND FOR SNOW IN THIS SETUP OF DEEP MOIST SW FLOW VOID OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...SNOW IN/NEAR PARMER COUNTY
SHOULD EASILY ACCUMULATE BY FRI NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BLO FREEZING.
DID BOOST SNOW TOTALS TO 4+ INCHES IN WRN PARMER COUNTY...BUT THE
KEY HERE IS THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE SPARED AS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO GRASS AS MOST PAVED ROADS
REMAIN A BIT ON THE MILD SIDE. STILL...HIGH LIQUID CONTENT SNOW
CAN PRODUCE A SLUSHY LAYER ON ROADS ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP RATES
BECOME ENHANCED...SO LATER FORECASTS MAY PONDER AN SPS OR FULL-
BLOWN WINTER WX HEADLINE. OPTED FOR NOW TO RESTRICT THIS MENTION
TO THE HWO.

OTHERWISE...POPS ON SATURDAY WERE SKIMMED BACK A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES AS THE PWAT AXIS EXITS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIFT WANES. THE BASE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH
MEANWHILE WILL GRAZE THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER ADEQUATE RE-
SATURATION OF THE PRECIP GROWTH ZONE ALOFT IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE SO POPS WERE REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE. SIMILARLY...
POPS ON SUNDAY WERE LOWERED AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT LOOKING IDEAL
IN THIS TRANSITION TO DRIER NW FLOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRIVE A BLUE NORTHER INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUN COMPLETE WITH CHILLY NORTH WINDS. A QUICK REBOUND TO MILD SW
WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MON BEFORE AN UNSETTLED NW FLOW SENDS
ANOTHER DRY COLD FROPA OUR WAY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  32  35  29 /   0  20  60  80
TULIA         53  33  40  33 /   0  10  60  80
PLAINVIEW     53  34  40  34 /   0  10  60  90
LEVELLAND     56  34  38  34 /   0  20  60  90
LUBBOCK       56  34  40  35 /   0  20  50  90
DENVER CITY   56  35  39  34 /   0  30  60  90
BROWNFIELD    57  35  40  36 /   0  20  60  90
CHILDRESS     59  36  48  38 /   0   0  20  80
SPUR          58  36  45  38 /   0  10  20  80
ASPERMONT     60  37  48  40 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
344
FXUS64 KLUB 291142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
542 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTH TO NE WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO LOWER TOWARD 10 KFT THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MAKE AS FAR EAST AS KPVW AND KLBB BY 12Z
FRIDAY...THE BEGINNING ECHOES OF A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHC TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. BETTER CHANCES BEYOND
THE SCOPE OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK TO THE EAST FROM THE CNTL ROCKIES AND
SRN ROCKIES TODAY ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH EYES THEN
FOCUSING ON A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE SRN CALIF/BAJA CALIF
COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FCST AREA...THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING CAUSING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL
TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS NEAR-RECORD HIGHS...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS
HIGHLY MODIFIED AND NOT REALLY COLD AT ALL. RESULT WILL BE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND FAVORING THE WARMER END
OF MOS GUIDANCE.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SEE MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGIN ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SWRN AND EVENTUALLY
WRN ZONES OF THE FCST AREA. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL TAKE A WHILE
WITH VERY DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS INITIALLY IN PLACE...AND WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP AT
THE SFC TO BE CONFINED TO WRN ZONES TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY AND BE PRETTY LIGHT. STILL...MODELS ARE BECOMING PRETTY
INSISTENT IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND
WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT...GENERALLY FAVORING THE MIDDLE GROUND
METMOS NUMBERS. PRECIP PHASE OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE AN ISSUE
NEAR THE STATE LINE NWD INTO THE EXTREME SRN PANHANDLE. MODEL
PROFILES TAKE MODEST MID LEVEL WARM NOSE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT OVER A FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH...SUGGESTING RAIN OR
SNOW TO BE PREFERRED DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
OF ICE. MOS TEMPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN A BIT TOO COLD IN SIMILAR
SCENARIOS RECENTLY...SO WILL WARM THEM A BIT TOWARD THE RAW MODEL
NUMBERS WHICH WILL PUT FCST LOWS RIGHT NEAR 32F FOR THIS AREA OF
CONCERN. WILL THUS RIDE THE FENCE WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DENVER CITY TO DIMMITT LINE AND ALL RAIN EAST OF
THERE AND WEST OF I-27 /NO POP MENTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE/.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP FRI-SAT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE ENTIRE CWA TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP LEVELS FOR THIS
WINTER SEASON /BEGINNING DEC 1/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS AN AGGRESSIVE SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAJA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW POISED ABOUT 500 MILES SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. BY EARLY
FRIDAY...INITIAL TOP-DOWN MOISTENING STILL LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER
HEALTHY RESISTANCE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER A STOUT
RIDGE AXIS...SO A TIGHT W-E POP GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED
FOR THIS PERIOD. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BLOSSOM BY FRI NIGHT AS
HEIGHT FALLS ENSUE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER RIDGE. COUPLED WITH
DEEP ASCENT FROM INCREASING UL DIVERGENCE...SEE NO REASON NOT TO
KEEP BOOSTING POPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA
3/4 INCH.

GREATEST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP PHASES MAINLY IN OUR W-NW ZONES
WHERE INITIAL WET BULB COOLING SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SNOW AT
TIMES. MODEL SOUNDING DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEP WARM NOSE UNFOLDING ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TULIA TO
MORTON LINE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SREF PLUME
ENSEMBLES IS PUSHING CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT MOSTLY SNOW SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. OUTSIDE OF WET BULBING EFFECTS...
THERMAL PROFILES EAST OF THESE ZONES DON/T STAND TO GAIN MUCH IF
ANY GROUND FOR SNOW IN THIS SETUP OF DEEP MOIST SW FLOW VOID OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...SNOW IN/NEAR PARMER COUNTY
SHOULD EASILY ACCUMULATE BY FRI NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BLO FREEZING.
DID BOOST SNOW TOTALS TO 4+ INCHES IN WRN PARMER COUNTY...BUT THE
KEY HERE IS THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE SPARED AS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO GRASS AS MOST PAVED ROADS
REMAIN A BIT ON THE MILD SIDE. STILL...HIGH LIQUID CONTENT SNOW
CAN PRODUCE A SLUSHY LAYER ON ROADS ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP RATES
BECOME ENHANCED...SO LATER FORECASTS MAY PONDER AN SPS OR FULL-
BLOWN WINTER WX HEADLINE. OPTED FOR NOW TO RESTRICT THIS MENTION
TO THE HWO.

OTHERWISE...POPS ON SATURDAY WERE SKIMMED BACK A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES AS THE PWAT AXIS EXITS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIFT WANES. THE BASE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH
MEANWHILE WILL GRAZE THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER ADEQUATE RE-
SATURATION OF THE PRECIP GROWTH ZONE ALOFT IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE SO POPS WERE REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE. SIMILARLY...
POPS ON SUNDAY WERE LOWERED AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT LOOKING IDEAL
IN THIS TRANSITION TO DRIER NW FLOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRIVE A BLUE NORTHER INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUN COMPLETE WITH CHILLY NORTH WINDS. A QUICK REBOUND TO MILD SW
WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MON BEFORE AN UNSETTLED NW FLOW SENDS
ANOTHER DRY COLD FROPA OUR WAY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  32  35  29 /   0  20  60  80
TULIA         53  33  40  33 /   0  10  60  80
PLAINVIEW     53  34  40  34 /   0  10  60  90
LEVELLAND     56  34  38  34 /   0  20  60  90
LUBBOCK       56  34  40  35 /   0  20  50  90
DENVER CITY   56  35  39  34 /   0  30  60  90
BROWNFIELD    57  35  40  36 /   0  20  60  90
CHILDRESS     59  36  48  38 /   0   0  20  80
SPUR          58  36  45  38 /   0  10  20  80
ASPERMONT     60  37  48  40 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07
568
FXUS64 KLUB 291028
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK TO THE EAST FROM THE CNTL ROCKIES AND
SRN ROCKIES TODAY ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH EYES THEN
FOCUSING ON A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE SRN CALIF/BAJA CALIF
COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FCST AREA...THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING CAUSING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL
TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS NEAR-RECORD HIGHS...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS
HIGHLY MODIFIED AND NOT REALLY COLD AT ALL. RESULT WILL BE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND FAVORING THE WARMER END
OF MOS GUIDANCE.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SEE MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGIN ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SWRN AND EVENTUALLY
WRN ZONES OF THE FCST AREA. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL TAKE A WHILE
WITH VERY DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS INITIALLY IN PLACE...AND WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP AT
THE SFC TO BE CONFINED TO WRN ZONES TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY AND BE PRETTY LIGHT. STILL...MODELS ARE BECOMING PRETTY
INSISTENT IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND
WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT...GENERALLY FAVORING THE MIDDLE GROUND
METMOS NUMBERS. PRECIP PHASE OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE AN ISSUE
NEAR THE STATE LINE NWD INTO THE EXTREME SRN PANHANDLE. MODEL
PROFILES TAKE MODEST MID LEVEL WARM NOSE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT OVER A FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH...SUGGESTING RAIN OR
SNOW TO BE PREFERRED DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
OF ICE. MOS TEMPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN A BIT TOO COLD IN SIMILAR
SCENARIOS RECENTLY...SO WILL WARM THEM A BIT TOWARD THE RAW MODEL
NUMBERS WHICH WILL PUT FCST LOWS RIGHT NEAR 32F FOR THIS AREA OF
CONCERN. WILL THUS RIDE THE FENCE WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DENVER CITY TO DIMMITT LINE AND ALL RAIN EAST OF
THERE AND WEST OF I-27 /NO POP MENTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE/.

.LONG TERM...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP FRI-SAT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE ENTIRE CWA TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP LEVELS FOR THIS
WINTER SEASON /BEGINNING DEC 1/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS AN AGGRESSIVE SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAJA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW POISED ABOUT 500 MILES SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. BY EARLY
FRIDAY...INITIAL TOP-DOWN MOISTENING STILL LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER
HEALTHY RESISTANCE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER A STOUT
RIDGE AXIS...SO A TIGHT W-E POP GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED
FOR THIS PERIOD. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BLOSSOM BY FRI NIGHT AS
HEIGHT FALLS ENSUE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER RIDGE. COUPLED WITH
DEEP ASCENT FROM INCREASING UL DIVERGENCE...SEE NO REASON NOT TO
KEEP BOOSTING POPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA
3/4 INCH.

GREATEST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP PHASES MAINLY IN OUR W-NW ZONES
WHERE INITIAL WET BULB COOLING SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SNOW AT
TIMES. MODEL SOUNDING DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEP WARM NOSE UNFOLDING ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TULIA TO
MORTON LINE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SREF PLUME
ENSEMBLES IS PUSHING CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT MOSTLY SNOW SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. OUTSIDE OF WET BULBING EFFECTS...
THERMAL PROFILES EAST OF THESE ZONES DON/T STAND TO GAIN MUCH IF
ANY GROUND FOR SNOW IN THIS SETUP OF DEEP MOIST SW FLOW VOID OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...SNOW IN/NEAR PARMER COUNTY
SHOULD EASILY ACCUMULATE BY FRI NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BLO FREEZING.
DID BOOST SNOW TOTALS TO 4+ INCHES IN WRN PARMER COUNTY...BUT THE
KEY HERE IS THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE SPARED AS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO GRASS AS MOST PAVED ROADS
REMAIN A BIT ON THE MILD SIDE. STILL...HIGH LIQUID CONTENT SNOW
CAN PRODUCE A SLUSHY LAYER ON ROADS ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP RATES
BECOME ENHANCED...SO LATER FORECASTS MAY PONDER AN SPS OR FULL-
BLOWN WINTER WX HEADLINE. OPTED FOR NOW TO RESTRICT THIS MENTION
TO THE HWO.

OTHERWISE...POPS ON SATURDAY WERE SKIMMED BACK A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES AS THE PWAT AXIS EXITS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIFT WANES. THE BASE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH
MEANWHILE WILL GRAZE THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER ADEQUATE RE-
SATURATION OF THE PRECIP GROWTH ZONE ALOFT IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE SO POPS WERE REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE. SIMILARLY...
POPS ON SUNDAY WERE LOWERED AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT LOOKING IDEAL
IN THIS TRANSITION TO DRIER NW FLOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRIVE A BLUE NORTHER INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUN COMPLETE WITH CHILLY NORTH WINDS. A QUICK REBOUND TO MILD SW
WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MON BEFORE AN UNSETTLED NW FLOW SENDS
ANOTHER DRY COLD FROPA OUR WAY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE YET.
&&

$$

07/93
640
FXUS64 KLUB 290541
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND BECOME BREEZY BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KNOTS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF AN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY
WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S
AROUND CHILDRESS AND PADUCAH. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMTH...BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS /GENERALLY SUSTAINED IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE/ HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
THERMALLY DRIVEN MIXING CONCLUDES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY /SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH/ THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES OF LATE...THOUGH READINGS SHOULD
STILL MAKE IT UP TO AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE
DAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK STILL LOOKS TO END OUR SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LEAD US INTO A BRIEF WET PERIOD. TOP DOWN
MOISTENING WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO DIP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SHIFTING SOME OF THE BEST LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LIFT STILL LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL RAMP UP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW NOT MOVING QUICKLY ONCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
US...PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL BE SLOWEST IN
SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE SREF LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
FOR THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION PHASE REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
ITERATION. MOSTLY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK ALTHOUGH
A WET MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ON THE CAPROCK. NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION PHASE
COULD GO EITHER WAY BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK. THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AS USUAL. MODELS ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF
SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO VARIED
EITHER BUT SREF PLUMES STILL SHOW AN EXTREMELY LARGE RANGE OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DRY SLOTTING MAY BE A FORMIDABLE FORCE AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PREMATURELY SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ENTERING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL PERMANENTLY END
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  35  48  30 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         71  37  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     72  38  52  33 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     74  38  55  33 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  39  55  33 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  40  56  34 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    75  40  56  34 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     80  43  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          79  43  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     80  43  59  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
220
FXUS64 KLUB 282343
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT SET
TO COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME AS MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE UNDERNEATH CONTINUED
CIRRUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF AN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY
WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S
AROUND CHILDRESS AND PADUCAH. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMTH...BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS /GENERALLY SUSTAINED IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE/ HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
THERMALLY DRIVEN MIXING CONCLUDES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY /SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH/ THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES OF LATE...THOUGH READINGS SHOULD
STILL MAKE IT UP TO AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE
DAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK STILL LOOKS TO END OUR SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LEAD US INTO A BRIEF WET PERIOD. TOP DOWN
MOISTENING WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO DIP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SHIFTING SOME OF THE BEST LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LIFT STILL LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL RAMP UP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW NOT MOVING QUICKLY ONCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
US...PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL BE SLOWEST IN
SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE SREF LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
FOR THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION PHASE REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
ITERATION. MOSTLY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK ALTHOUGH
A WET MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ON THE CAPROCK. NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION PHASE
COULD GO EITHER WAY BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK. THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AS USUAL. MODELS ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF
SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO VARIED
EITHER BUT SREF PLUMES STILL SHOW AN EXTREMELY LARGE RANGE OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DRY SLOTTING MAY BE A FORMIDABLE FORCE AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PREMATURELY SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ENTERING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL PERMANENTLY END
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  48  30  37 /   0   0  20  60
TULIA         37  51  32  42 /   0   0  10  60
PLAINVIEW     38  52  33  42 /   0   0  10  60
LEVELLAND     38  55  33  41 /   0   0  10  60
LUBBOCK       39  55  33  43 /   0   0  10  50
DENVER CITY   40  56  34  40 /   0   0  20  60
BROWNFIELD    40  56  34  42 /   0   0  10  60
CHILDRESS     43  58  36  49 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          43  57  35  47 /   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     43  59  37  49 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
761
FXUS64 KLUB 282027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF AN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY
WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S
AROUND CHILDRESS AND PADUCAH. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMTH...BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS /GENERALLY SUSTAINED IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE/ HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
THERMALLY DRIVEN MIXING CONCLUDES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY /SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH/ THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES OF LATE...THOUGH READINGS SHOULD
STILL MAKE IT UP TO AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE
DAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z.

.LONG TERM...
FORECAST SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK STILL LOOKS TO END OUR SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LEAD US INTO A BRIEF WET PERIOD. TOP DOWN
MOISTENING WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO DIP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SHIFTING SOME OF THE BEST LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LIFT STILL LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL RAMP UP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW NOT MOVING QUICKLY ONCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
US...PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL BE SLOWEST IN
SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE SREF LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
FOR THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION PHASE REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
ITERATION. MOSTLY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK ALTHOUGH
A WET MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS LIKELY ON THE CAPROCK. NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION PHASE
COULD GO EITHER WAY BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW ON THE CAPROCK. THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AS USUAL. MODELS ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF
SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO VARIED
EITHER BUT SREF PLUMES STILL SHOW AN EXTREMELY LARGE RANGE OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DRY SLOTTING MAY BE A FORMIDABLE FORCE AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PREMATURELY SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ENTERING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL PERMANENTLY END
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  48  30  37 /   0   0  20  60
TULIA         37  51  32  42 /   0   0  10  60
PLAINVIEW     38  52  33  42 /   0   0  10  60
LEVELLAND     38  55  33  41 /   0   0  10  60
LUBBOCK       39  55  33  43 /   0   0  10  50
DENVER CITY   40  56  34  40 /   0   0  20  60
BROWNFIELD    40  56  34  42 /   0   0  10  60
CHILDRESS     43  58  36  49 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          43  57  35  47 /   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     43  59  37  49 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/01
818
FXUS64 KLUB 281743
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES IS SHIFTING EWD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS TODAY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW TO
NORTH TONIGHT ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE PLAINS. DESPITE A
DECREASE IN MID AND UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THICKNESSES NEAR NEUTRAL AND AN INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT SUGGEST WARMING ON ORDER 1 TO 4 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS
HIGHS...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WARMER
MAVMOS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS CENTERED ON THE LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
PROMISES TO GENERATE A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT PUNCTUATED BY SOME
FROZEN PHASES AT TIMES. WATER VAPOR PRESENTATION OF THIS TROUGH
NOW SW OF BAJA CA IS QUITE RESPECTABLE COMPLETE WITH WHAT LOOKED
LIKE HEALTHY MCS AT ONE POINT IN ITS WARM SECTOR. THE INITIAL
SURGE OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REACH OUR AREA BY THU
BEFORE UNDERGOING AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN SATURATION LATE FRI INTO
EARLY SAT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RATCHETS UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

RESILIENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI NOW SPELLS
AN EVEN LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT POPS...SO
MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PRECIP MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRI NIGHT AT THE SOONEST.
POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED MARKEDLY FROM W-E ON FRI GIVEN
OVERWHELMING NWP SIGNALS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT
WITH A NOTABLE WARM NOSE OVER ALL BUT OUR W-NW COUNTIES ON FRI
THRU EARLY SAT...SO PRECIP PHASE WAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN IN THESE
AREAS WITH MOSTLY SNOW FAVORED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
PARMER COUNTY WHERE SREF PLUMES SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMS BY
SAT MORNING BEFORE ASCENT WANES. MARGINAL 2M TEMPS HOWEVER LOOK TO
KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMS CONFINED TO UNPAVED SURFACES AS PRE-
EXISTING COLD AIR AND FURTHER WET-BULB COOLING WILL BE IN SHORT
SUPPLY. ISENTROPIC PROGS SHOW STOUT SW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS IN THE
CRITICAL WARM NOSE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WARM LAYER MAY INDEED UNFOLD WHILE FURTHER
CURTAILING SNOW TOTALS IN OUR NW COUNTIES FROM THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

SEVENTY POPS WERE EXPANDED FRI NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THIS
PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO RECEIVE THE LION/S SHARE OF DEEP OMEGA AND
SATURATION. BY SAT...THE NATURE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW
IS TO GRADUALLY PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DIVING SE ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SERVE TO CARRY THE DOMINANT TROUGH
TOO FAR TO OUR SW WHILE OPENING THE DOOR TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
DID RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT AND EVEN EXTENDED THESE
THROUGH SUN ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN
STREAM TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION...BUT THE EARLIER DRY SLOTTING /
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT MAY PROVE TOO FORMIDABLE FOR
ADEQUATE RE-SATURATION OF THE COLUMN ONCE THIS LATTER WAVE ARRIVES
ON SUN. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FROM MON-TUE THEN DEAMPLIFIES INTO A
SHALLOW CYCLONIC REGIME FAVORING NO FURTHER POPS AND A RETURN TO
MILDER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  34  51  30 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         72  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     73  38  54  32 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     76  37  57  32 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  39  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   75  40  57  33 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    76  40  58  34 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  44  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          80  44  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     81  46  60  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/01/23
892
FXUS64 KLUB 281120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE A AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS TODAY WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES IS SHIFTING EWD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS TODAY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW TO
NORTH TONIGHT ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE PLAINS. DESPITE A
DECREASE IN MID AND UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THICKNESSES NEAR NEUTRAL AND AN INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT SUGGEST WARMING ON ORDER 1 TO 4 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS
HIGHS...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WARMER
MAVMOS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS CENTERED ON THE LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
PROMISES TO GENERATE A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT PUNCUATED BY SOME
FROZEN PHASES AT TIMES. WATER VAPOR PRESENTATION OF THIS TROUGH
NOW SW OF BAJA CA IS QUITE RESPECTABLE COMPLETE WITH WHAT LOOKED
LIKE HEALTHY MCS AT ONE POINT IN ITS WARM SECTOR. THE INITIAL
SURGE OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REACH OUR AREA BY THU
BEFORE UNDERGOING AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN SATURATION LATE FRI INTO
EARLY SAT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RATCHETS UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

RESILIENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI NOW SPELLS
AN EVEN LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT POPS...SO
MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PRECIP MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRI NIGHT AT THE SOONEST.
POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED MARKEDLY FROM W-E ON FRI GIVEN
OVERWHELMING NWP SIGNALS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT
WITH A NOTABLE WARM NOSE OVER ALL BUT OUR W-NW COUNTIES ON FRI
THRU EARLY SAT...SO PRECIP PHASE WAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN IN THESE
AREAS WITH MOSTLY SNOW FAVORED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
PARMER COUNTY WHERE SREF PLUMES SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMS BY
SAT MORNING BEFORE ASCENT WANES. MARGINAL 2M TEMPS HOWEVER LOOK TO
KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMS CONFINED TO UNPAVED SURFACES AS PRE-
EXISTING COLD AIR AND FURTHER WET-BULB COOLING WILL BE IN SHORT
SUPPLY. ISENTROPIC PROGS SHOW STOUT SW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS IN THE
CRITICAL WARM NOSE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WARM LAYER MAY INDEED UNFOLD WHILE FURTHER
CURTAILING SNOW TOTALS IN OUR NW COUNTIES FROM THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

SEVENTY POPS WERE EXPANDED FRI NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THIS
PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO RECEIVE THE LION/S SHARE OF DEEP OMEGA AND
SATURATION. BY SAT...THE NATURE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW
IS TO GRADUALLY PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DIVING SE ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SERVE TO CARRY THE DOMINANT TROUGH
TOO FAR TO OUR SW WHILE OPENING THE DOOR TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
DID RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT AND EVEN EXTENDED THESE
THROUGH SUN ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN
STREAM TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION...BUT THE EARLIER DRY SLOTTING /
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT MAY PROVE TOO FORMIDABLE FOR
ADEQUATE RE-SATURATION OF THE COLUMN ONCE THIS LATTER WAVE ARRIVES
ON SUN. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FROM MON-TUE THEN DEAMPLIFIES INTO A
SHALLOW CYCLONIC REGIME FAVORING NO FURTHER POPS AND A RETURN TO
MILDER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  34  51  30 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         72  37  53  31 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     73  38  54  32 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     76  37  57  32 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  39  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   75  40  57  33 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    76  40  58  34 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  44  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          80  44  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     81  46  60  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07
286
FXUS64 KLUB 281017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES IS SHIFTING EWD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS TODAY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW TO
NORTH TONIGHT ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE PLAINS. DESPITE A
DECREASE IN MID AND UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THICKNESSES NEAR NEUTRAL AND AN INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT SUGGEST WARMING ON ORDER 1 TO 4 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS
HIGHS...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WARMER
MAVMOS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS CENTERED ON THE LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
PROMISES TO GENERATE A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT PUNCUATED BY SOME
FROZEN PHASES AT TIMES. WATER VAPOR PRESENTATION OF THIS TROUGH
NOW SW OF BAJA CA IS QUITE RESPECTABLE COMPLETE WITH WHAT LOOKED
LIKE HEALTHY MCS AT ONE POINT IN ITS WARM SECTOR. THE INITIAL
SURGE OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REACH OUR AREA BY THU
BEFORE UNDERGOING AGGRESSIVE TOP-DOWN SATURATION LATE FRI INTO
EARLY SAT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RATCHETS UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

RESILIENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI NOW SPELLS
AN EVEN LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT POPS...SO
MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PRECIP MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRI NIGHT AT THE SOONEST.
POP GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED MARKEDLY FROM W-E ON FRI GIVEN
OVERWHELMING NWP SIGNALS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT
WITH A NOTABLE WARM NOSE OVER ALL BUT OUR W-NW COUNTIES ON FRI
THRU EARLY SAT...SO PRECIP PHASE WAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN IN THESE
AREAS WITH MOSTLY SNOW FAVORED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
PARMER COUNTY WHERE SREF PLUMES SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMS BY
SAT MORNING BEFORE ASCENT WANES. MARGINAL 2M TEMPS HOWEVER LOOK TO
KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMS CONFINED TO UNPAVED SURFACES AS PRE-
EXISTING COLD AIR AND FURTHER WET-BULB COOLING WILL BE IN SHORT
SUPPLY. ISENTROPIC PROGS SHOW STOUT SW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS IN THE
CRITICAL WARM NOSE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WARM LAYER MAY INDEED UNFOLD WHILE FURTHER
CURTAILING SNOW TOTALS IN OUR NW COUNTIES FROM THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

SEVENTY POPS WERE EXPANDED FRI NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THIS
PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO RECEIVE THE LION/S SHARE OF DEEP OMEGA AND
SATURATION. BY SAT...THE NATURE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW
IS TO GRADUALLY PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DIVING SE ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SERVE TO CARRY THE DOMINANT TROUGH
TOO FAR TO OUR SW WHILE OPENING THE DOOR TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
DID RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT AND EVEN EXTENDED THESE
THROUGH SUN ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN
STREAM TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION...BUT THE EARLIER DRY SLOTTING /
SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT MAY PROVE TOO FORMIDABLE FOR
ADEQUATE RE-SATURATION OF THE COLUMN ONCE THIS LATTER WAVE ARRIVES
ON SUN. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FROM MON-TUE THEN DEAMPLIFIES INTO A
SHALLOW CYCLONIC REGIME FAVORING NO FURTHER POPS AND A RETURN TO
MILDER TEMPS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93
378
FXUS64 KLUB 280540
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20
KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT KLBB AND KPVW...SLIGHTLY LOWER
AT KCDS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND DECREASE...THEN TURN TO THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT S-SW
SURFACE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK. THROUGH THE DAY A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER DRY FRONT INTO THE REGION. AFTER A
PLEASANTLY COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
HELP WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN. AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SUCH ADIABATIC WARMING AS OF
LATE...HAVE ELECTED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY PLEASANT SHORT TERM IS
IN STORE.

LONG TERM...
A TROUGH IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STILL FLEXING ITS
MUSCLE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN UP WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COME
OUT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY UNTIL DRIER NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW
MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO
PINCH OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO MOVING OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF STILL MOSTLY KEEPS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER SOME AREAS WILL SEE
ALL RAIN...ALL SNOW...OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WITH A LACK OF A
COLD AIR INTRUSION AT THE SURFACE...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN OFF THE CAPROCK WITH A MIX ON THE CAPROCK AND MOSTLY SNOW IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE COULD EXPERIENCE SNOW THROUGHOUT OR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE EVENT. THE GFS IS BANKING ON THIS POSSIBILITY DEPICTING
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH
GREATER VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  70  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  73  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  73  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     37  75  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  77  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   38  77  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    39  76  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  79  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          41  78  42  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  79  43  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
383
FXUS64 KLUB 272334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
534 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT S-SW
SURFACE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK. THROUGH THE DAY A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER DRY FRONT INTO THE REGION. AFTER A
PLEASANTLY COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
HELP WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN. AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SUCH ADIABATIC WARMING AS OF
LATE...HAVE ELECTED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY PLEASANT SHORT TERM IS
IN STORE.

LONG TERM...
A TROUGH IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STILL FLEXING ITS
MUSCLE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN UP WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COME
OUT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY UNTIL DRIER NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW
MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO
PINCH OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO MOVING OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF STILL MOSTLY KEEPS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER SOME AREAS WILL SEE
ALL RAIN...ALL SNOW...OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WITH A LACK OF A
COLD AIR INTRUSION AT THE SURFACE...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN OFF THE CAPROCK WITH A MIX ON THE CAPROCK AND MOSTLY SNOW IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE COULD EXPERIENCE SNOW THROUGHOUT OR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE EVENT. THE GFS IS BANKING ON THIS POSSIBILITY DEPICTING
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH
GREATER VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  70  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  73  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  73  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     37  75  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  77  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   38  77  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    39  76  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  79  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          41  78  42  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  79  43  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
131
FXUS64 KLUB 272047
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
247 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER DRY FRONT INTO THE REGION. AFTER A
PLEASANTLY COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
HELP WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN. AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SUCH ADIABATIC WARMING AS OF
LATE...HAVE ELECTED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY PLEASANT SHORT TERM IS
IN STORE.


.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STILL FLEXING ITS
MUSCLE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN UP WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COME
OUT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY UNTIL DRIER NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW
MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO
PINCH OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO MOVING OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF STILL MOSTLY KEEPS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER SOME AREAS WILL SEE
ALL RAIN...ALL SNOW...OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WITH A LACK OF A
COLD AIR INTRUSION AT THE SURFACE...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN OFF THE CAPROCK WITH A MIX ON THE CAPROCK AND MOSTLY SNOW IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE COULD EXPERIENCE SNOW THROUGHOUT OR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE EVENT. THE GFS IS BANKING ON THIS POSSIBILITY DEPICTING
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH
GREATER VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  70  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  73  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  73  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     37  75  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  77  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   38  77  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    39  76  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  79  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          41  78  42  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  79  43  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01
510
FXUS64 KLUB 271749
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH NOTHING ATYPICAL OF WEST TEXAS.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS NARROW HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING TO GENERATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS AND VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES. SEEING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
GOOD INSOLATION. BUMPED MOS GUID MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES AT
CHILDRESS AS MACHINE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH THIS PATTERN.
WINDS RETURN TO W/SW LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THAT
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN KEEP MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
JAMES

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMISES A LARGE SCALE PATTERN
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLIFIED THEME OF LATE WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNDISTURBED. STOUT UPPER RIDGE NOW TRAVERSING THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WILL COLLAPSE BY 12Z WED AS A TROUGH TRACKS
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WED AFTN...SO WITH A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE AND STRONGER WESTERLIES OVERSPREADING OUR DOMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED CONSIDERABLY TO BETTER MATCH
THIS REGIME. MET GUIDANCE IS BATTLING AN OBVIOUS HEAD COLD AS
EVIDENCE BY ITS STREAK OF COOL DAYS LATELY...SO WE/VE GIVEN THE
NOD TO THE TOASTY MAV AND BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

FOLLOWING FROPA LATE WED AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THU...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SWRN
CONUS. GFS SEEMS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS OLD FAST BIAS WITH THESE
DEEPER WAVES WHEREAS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF APPEARS MORE
CREDIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEUTRAL TILT TO THIS TROUGH BY THU
NIGHT AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER WEST TEXAS. IN LIGHT OF
MEAN RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WOULD EXPECT TOP-DOWN
SATURATION AND LIFT TO FACE MORE RESISTANCE UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS
DEPARTS ON FRI OPENING THE FLOODGATES TO DEEP MOISTURE AND
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS PATTERN OF SUSTAINED SW FLOW
AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY DEEP AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH FITS THE BILL
FOR A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT...ESP BY FRI NIGHT WHEN ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT
BEFORE THE INEVITABLE DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES LATE SAT MORNING/AFTN.

PRECIP PHASE IS STILL OPEN TO SOME SNOW AT TIMES ON THE CAPROCK...
BUT A LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOL AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
OVERWHELMINGLY MILD SW FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO A MOSTLY LIQUID
EVENT WITH SNOW ACCUMS SERIOUSLY HAMPERED BY MILD 2M TEMPS.
NONETHELESS...INITIAL WET BULBING LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD OPEN
THE DOOR TO SOME SNOW WITH A SLIM SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW BY
LATE SAT AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE
DEFICITS BY SAT NIGHT HOWEVER APPEAR MORE SERIOUS FOLLOWING THE
DRY SLOTTING EARLIER THAT DAY...SO POPS WERE KEPT LOW SAT NIGHT.

SAT NIGHT...THE TROUGH/LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
PIECES LEAVING A BROAD POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS. GFS STILL WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE SRN END OF THIS
TROUGH ACROSS NWRN MEXICO BY SUN BEFORE SCOOTING THIS DEEPER LOW
EAST...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN ARE LARGELY AGAINST THIS
WHICH IS HOW WE/LL LEAN FOR NOW. DRY NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH SHOULD CLOSE OUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE
WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  40  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         73  42  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  42  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     73  40  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  41  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   73  42  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  41  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     79  46  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  44  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     77  43  80  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
405
FXUS64 KLUB 271121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS NARROW HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING TO GENERATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS AND VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES. SEEING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
GOOD INSOLATION. BUMPED MOS GUID MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES AT
CHILDRESS AS MACHINE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH THIS PATTERN.
WINDS RETURN TO W/SW LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THAT
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN KEEP MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
JAMES

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMISES A LARGE SCALE PATTERN
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLIFIED THEME OF LATE WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNDISTURBED. STOUT UPPER RIDGE NOW TRAVERSING THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WILL COLLAPSE BY 12Z WED AS A TROUGH TRACKS
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WED AFTN...SO WITH A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE AND STRONGER WESTERLIES OVERSPREADING OUR DOMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED CONSIDERABLY TO BETTER MATCH
THIS REGIME. MET GUIDANCE IS BATTLING AN OBVIOUS HEAD COLD AS
EVIDENCE BY ITS STREAK OF COOL DAYS LATELY...SO WE/VE GIVEN THE
NOD TO THE TOASTY MAV AND BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

FOLLOWING FROPA LATE WED AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THU...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SWRN
CONUS. GFS SEEMS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS OLD FAST BIAS WITH THESE
DEEPER WAVES WHEREAS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF APPEARS MORE
CREDIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEUTRAL TILT TO THIS TROUGH BY THU
NIGHT AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER WEST TEXAS. IN LIGHT OF
MEAN RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WOULD EXPECT TOP-DOWN
SATURATION AND LIFT TO FACE MORE RESISTANCE UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS
DEPARTS ON FRI OPENING THE FLOODGATES TO DEEP MOISTURE AND
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS PATTERN OF SUSTAINED SW FLOW
AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY DEEP AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH FITS THE BILL
FOR A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT...ESP BY FRI NIGHT WHEN ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT
BEFORE THE INEVITABLE DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES LATE SAT MORNING/AFTN.

PRECIP PHASE IS STILL OPEN TO SOME SNOW AT TIMES ON THE CAPROCK...
BUT A LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOL AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
OVERWHELMINGLY MILD SW FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO A MOSTLY LIQUID
EVENT WITH SNOW ACCUMS SERIOUSLY HAMPERED BY MILD 2M TEMPS.
NONETHELESS...INITIAL WET BULBING LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD OPEN
THE DOOR TO SOME SNOW WITH A SLIM SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW BY
LATE SAT AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE
DEFICITS BY SAT NIGHT HOWEVER APPEAR MORE SERIOUS FOLLOWING THE
DRY SLOTTING EARLIER THAT DAY...SO POPS WERE KEPT LOW SAT NIGHT.

SAT NIGHT...THE TROUGH/LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
PIECES LEAVING A BROAD POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS. GFS STILL WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE SRN END OF THIS
TROUGH ACROSS NWRN MEXICO BY SUN BEFORE SCOOTING THIS DEEPER LOW
EAST...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN ARE LARGELY AGAINST THIS
WHICH IS HOW WE/LL LEAN FOR NOW. DRY NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH SHOULD CLOSE OUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE
WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06
734
FXUS64 KLUB 270920
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS NARROW HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING TO GENERATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS AND VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES. SEEING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
GOOD INSOLATION. BUMPED MOS GUID MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES AT
CHILDRESS AS MACHINE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH THIS PATTERN.
WINDS RETURN TO W/SW LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THAT
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN KEEP MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
JAMES

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMISES A LARGE SCALE PATTERN
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLIFIED THEME OF LATE WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNDISTURBED. STOUT UPPER RIDGE NOW TRAVERSING THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WILL COLLAPSE BY 12Z WED AS A TROUGH TRACKS
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WED AFTN...SO WITH A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE AND STRONGER WESTERLIES OVERSPREADING OUR DOMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED CONSIDERABLY TO BETTER MATCH
THIS REGIME. MET GUIDANCE IS BATTLING AN OBVIOUS HEAD COLD AS
EVIDENCE BY ITS STREAK OF COOL DAYS LATELY...SO WE/VE GIVEN THE
NOD TO THE TOASTY MAV AND BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

FOLLOWING FROPA LATE WED AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THU...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SWRN
CONUS. GFS SEEMS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS OLD FAST BIAS WITH THESE
DEEPER WAVES WHEREAS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF APPEARS MORE
CREDIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEUTRAL TILT TO THIS TROUGH BY THU
NIGHT AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER WEST TEXAS. IN LIGHT OF
MEAN RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WOULD EXPECT TOP-DOWN
SATURATION AND LIFT TO FACE MORE RESISTANCE UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS
DEPARTS ON FRI OPENING THE FLOODGATES TO DEEP MOISTURE AND
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS PATTERN OF SUSTAINED SW FLOW
AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY DEEP AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH FITS THE BILL
FOR A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT...ESP BY FRI NIGHT WHEN ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT
BEFORE THE INEVITABLE DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES LATE SAT MORNING/AFTN.

PRECIP PHASE IS STILL OPEN TO SOME SNOW AT TIMES ON THE CAPROCK...
BUT A LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOL AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
OVERWHELMINGLY MILD SW FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO A MOSTLY LIQUID
EVENT WITH SNOW ACCUMS SERIOUSLY HAMPERED BY MILD 2M TEMPS.
NONETHELESS...INITIAL WET BULBING LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD OPEN
THE DOOR TO SOME SNOW WITH A SLIM SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW BY
LATE SAT AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE
DEFICITS BY SAT NIGHT HOWEVER APPEAR MORE SERIOUS FOLLOWING THE
DRY SLOTTING EARLIER THAT DAY...SO POPS WERE KEPT LOW SAT NIGHT.

SAT NIGHT...THE TROUGH/LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
PIECES LEAVING A BROAD POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS. GFS STILL WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE SRN END OF THIS
TROUGH ACROSS NWRN MEXICO BY SUN BEFORE SCOOTING THIS DEEPER LOW
EAST...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN ARE LARGELY AGAINST THIS
WHICH IS HOW WE/LL LEAN FOR NOW. DRY NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH SHOULD CLOSE OUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE
WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06/93
781
FXUS64 KLUB 270511
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1111 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH UPPER RIDGE PASSING EARLY...AND A WEAKENING
IMPULSE EDGING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL INITIATE MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND A
RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
NARROW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRANSLATE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...PASSING TO THE EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING IMPULSE LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURES WILL FALL TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THOUGH STILL WITH ONLY MODEST SPEEDS. VFR CONTINUING.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A WARM DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
70S AT 2 PM PER THE WEST TEXAS MESONET...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A 80 DEGREE READING IN THAT AREA WHEN THE
FINAL TEMPS COME IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME NW
TO SE-ORIENTED BANDS OF CIRRUS STRETCHING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO
SOUTH TEXAS...AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED NEWD IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT N-NEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION BUT OTHERWISE THE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND MILD. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S OUT IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...NAMELY MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE...TO MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW THIS EVENING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE SW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF US...UPPER 60S IN OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GETS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...WE`LL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS...OFF TO OUR WEST ENERGY
SPLITTING OFF NORTHERN JET MEANDERS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH ORGANIZATION
EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO`S AND ULTIMATELY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS
IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH OLD MEXICO. BEFORE DOING SO
THOUGH...PACIFIC MOISTURE DOES SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN THE NORTHERN JET MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND HAVE
PUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AS OF THIS TIME THE COLD AIR DOES NOT SEEM DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
EVENT WOULD BE IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES WITH ANYWHERE TO 0.5"
TO AN 1.00" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THAT AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS US DRYING OUT PAST T.SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

GFS KEEPS REMNANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO BRING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  68  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         34  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  71  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          39  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
068
FXUS64 KLUB 262348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
NARROW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRANSLATE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...PASSING TO THE EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING IMPULSE LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURES WILL FALL TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THOUGH STILL WITH ONLY MODEST SPEEDS. VFR CONTINUING.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A WARM DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
70S AT 2 PM PER THE WEST TEXAS MESONET...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A 80 DEGREE READING IN THAT AREA WHEN THE
FINAL TEMPS COME IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME NW
TO SE-ORIENTED BANDS OF CIRRUS STRETCHING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO
SOUTH TEXAS...AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED NEWD IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT N-NEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION BUT OTHERWISE THE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND MILD. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S OUT IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...NAMELY MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE...TO MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW THIS EVENING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE SW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF US...UPPER 60S IN OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GETS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...WE`LL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS...OFF TO OUR WEST ENERGY
SPLITTING OFF NORTHERN JET MEANDERS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH ORGANIZATION
EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO`S AND ULTIMATELY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS
IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH OLD MEXICO. BEFORE DOING SO
THOUGH...PACIFIC MOISTURE DOES SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN THE NORTHERN JET MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND HAVE
PUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AS OF THIS TIME THE COLD AIR DOES NOT SEEM DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
EVENT WOULD BE IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES WITH ANYWHERE TO 0.5"
TO AN 1.00" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THAT AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS US DRYING OUT PAST T.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...


&&HE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS REMNANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO BRING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  68  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         34  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  71  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          39  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
390
FXUS64 KLUB 262133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A WARM DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
70S AT 2 PM PER THE WEST TEXAS MESONET...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A 80 DEGREE READING IN THAT AREA WHEN THE
FINAL TEMPS COME IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME NW
TO SE-ORIENTED BANDS OF CIRRUS STRETCHING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO
SOUTH TEXAS...AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED NEWD IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT N-NEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION BUT OTHERWISE THE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND MILD. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S OUT IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...NAMELY MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE...TO MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW THIS EVENING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE SW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF US...UPPER 60S IN OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GETS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS AS
COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...WE`LL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY WITH
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS...OFF TO OUR WEST ENERGY SPLITTING
OFF NORTHERN JET MEANDERS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH ORGANIZATION EAST OF THE
SACREMENTOS AND ULTIMATE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH OLD MEXICO...BEFORE DOING SO THOUGH...PACIFIC MOISTURE DOES
SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF IN THE NORTHERN
JET MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK AND HAVE PUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS OF THIS TIME COLD AIR DOES
NOT SEEM DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT WOULD BE IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
WITH ANYWHERE TO 0.5" TO AN 1.00" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS US DRYING OUT PAST THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS REMNANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TO BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  68  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         34  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  71  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          39  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/55
102
FXUS64 KLUB 262133 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A WARM DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
70S AT 2 PM PER THE WEST TEXAS MESONET...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A 80 DEGREE READING IN THAT AREA WHEN THE
FINAL TEMPS COME IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME NW
TO SE-ORIENTED BANDS OF CIRRUS STRETCHING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO
SOUTH TEXAS...AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED NEWD IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT N-NEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION BUT OTHERWISE THE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND MILD. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S OUT IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...NAMELY MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE...TO MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW THIS EVENING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE SW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF US...UPPER 60S IN OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GETS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS AS
COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...WE`LL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY WITH
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS...OFF TO OUR WEST ENERGY SPLITTING
OFF NORTHERN JET MEANDERS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH ORGANIZATION EAST OF THE
SACREMENTOS AND ULTIMATELY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD THROUGH OLD MEXICO. BEFORE DOING SO THOUGH...PACIFIC
MOISTURE DOES SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF IN
THE NORTHERN JET MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND HAVE PUT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS OF THIS TIME
THE COLD AIR DOES NOT SEEM DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT WOULD
BE IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES WITH ANYWHERE TO 0.5" TO AN 1.00"
OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THAT AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS US DRYING OUT PAST THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS REMNANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO BRING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  68  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         34  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  71  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          39  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/55
531
FXUS64 KLUB 261913 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
113 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO NUDGE OUR HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON UP A FEW
DEGREES. 1 PM WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS SHOW THAT MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
REACHED OR ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF THEIR FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH W-NW
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND PASSING CIRRUS AOA 18K FT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH STEADY W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR. MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SERVE TO BOOST LL THICKNESSES
LOCALLY...SO HAVE EDGED MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MILDER MAV NUMBERS.
MAV REMAINS FAVORED FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN AS THE MET HAS
PROVEN TOO COOL AS OF LATE.

LONG TERM...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WEAK FRONT
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES AS DEEP DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY WARM TEMPS FOR LATE JANUARY...ESP WEDNESDAY WITH 70S
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT...REVERSING
THE WARMING TREND AND KNOCKING BACK TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE BULLISH
WITH THIS IDEA...AND GIVEN SIMILARITY OF SOLUTIONS AND PRESENCE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA. CONTINUED TREND OF UPPING
POPS FURTHER IN THIS TIME FRAME. DON`T THINK GFS HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE NECESSARILY UNREASONABLE GIVEN PATTERN.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE SOUTH IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON COLDER AIR SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE PRECIP. TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN
THE ACTION LIKELY SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW HEADS SOUTH ALONG
BAJA...BEFORE THE LOW OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         69  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     70  35  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     70  35  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  35  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   71  36  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     77  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          74  40  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
511
FXUS64 KLUB 261737
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH W-NW
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND PASSING CIRRUS AOA 18K FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH STEADY W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR. MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SERVE TO BOOST LL THICKNESSES
LOCALLY...SO HAVE EDGED MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MILDER MAV NUMBERS.
MAV REMAINS FAVORED FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN AS THE MET HAS
PROVEN TOO COOL AS OF LATE.

LONG TERM...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WEAK FRONT
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES AS DEEP DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY WARM TEMPS FOR LATE JANUARY...ESP WEDNESDAY WITH 70S
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT...REVERSING
THE WARMING TREND AND KNOCKING BACK TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE BULLISH
WITH THIS IDEA...AND GIVEN SIMILARITY OF SOLUTIONS AND PRESENCE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA. CONTINUED TREND OF UPPING
POPS FURTHER IN THIS TIME FRAME. DON`T THINK GFS HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE NECESSARILY UNREASONABLE GIVEN PATTERN.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE SOUTH IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON COLDER AIR SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE PRECIP. TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN
THE ACTION LIKELY SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW HEADS SOUTH ALONG
BAJA...BEFORE THE LOW OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  35  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  35  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  35  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  36  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  40  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
925
FXUS64 KLUB 261109
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
509 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH STEADY W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR. MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SERVE TO BOOST LL THICKNESSES
LOCALLY...SO HAVE EDGED MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MILDER MAV NUMBERS.
MAV REMAINS FAVORED FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN AS THE MET HAS
PROVEN TOO COOL AS OF LATE.

LONG TERM...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WEAK FRONT
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES AS DEEP DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY WARM TEMPS FOR LATE JANUARY...ESP WEDNESDAY WITH 70S
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT...REVERSING
THE WARMING TREND AND KNOCKING BACK TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE BULLISH
WITH THIS IDEA...AND GIVEN SIMILARITY OF SOLUTIONS AND PRESENCE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA. CONTINUED TREND OF UPPING
POPS FURTHER IN THIS TIME FRAME. DON`T THINK GFS HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE NECESSARILY UNREASONABLE GIVEN PATTERN.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE SOUTH IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON COLDER AIR SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE PRECIP. TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN
THE ACTION LIKELY SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW HEADS SOUTH ALONG
BAJA...BEFORE THE LOW OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. JAMES

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
116
FXUS64 KLUB 260933
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR. MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SERVE TO BOOST LL THICKNESSES
LOCALLY...SO HAVE EDGED MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MILDER MAV NUMBERS.
MAV REMAINS FAVORED FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN AS THE MET HAS
PROVEN TOO COOL AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WEAK FRONT
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES AS DEEP DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY WARM TEMPS FOR LATE JANUARY...ESP WEDNESDAY WITH 70S
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT...REVERSING
THE WARMING TREND AND KNOCKING BACK TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE BULLISH
WITH THIS IDEA...AND GIVEN SIMILARITY OF SOLUTIONS AND PRESENCE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA. CONTINUED TREND OF UPPING
POPS FURTHER IN THIS TIME FRAME. DON`T THINK GFS HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE NECESSARILY UNREASONABLE GIVEN PATTERN.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE SOUTH IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON COLDER AIR SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE PRECIP. TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN
THE ACTION LIKELY SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW HEADS SOUTH ALONG
BAJA...BEFORE THE LOW OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  35  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  35  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  35  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  36  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  40  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/06
869
FXUS64 KLUB 260520
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY /10-12 KTS/ MORE SO FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR AT KCDS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS BREACHING INTO THE 60S ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BRINGS A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE
OF A STOUT UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S ON MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND MID 30S
TO LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE MONDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD...BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE FINAL WEEK
OF JANUARY. FULL INSOLATION AND H85 THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WITH UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
.INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS WEST
TEXAS TO THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING IN BREEZY...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST...DOWNSTREAM OF A UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO AND CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS IN SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE A
WHOLE LOT...PERHAPS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A STEADY STREAM OF MID-LVL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND KEEP US IN A COOL...CLOUDY AND MOIST PATTERN. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY END UP TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND
SATURDAY...IT COULD DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A
DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY SUNDAY. OR IT COULD ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS NRN MX AND TX...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT COULD DIP BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW POTENTIAL COULD ENTER THE MIX EARLY SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT IF THE PRECIP LINGERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     32  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     36  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     38  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
229
FXUS64 KLUB 252321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY NW WINDS /ESPECIALLY AT KCDS/ WILL DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BACK A BIT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL COMMENCE TO COME UP JUST A
BIT TO 10-11 KTS...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS NOTED AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS BREACHING INTO THE 60S ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BRINGS A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE
OF A STOUT UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S ON MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND MID 30S
TO LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE MONDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD...BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE FINAL WEEK
OF JANUARY. FULL INSOLATION AND H85 THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WITH UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
..INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS WEST
TEXAS TO THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING IN BREEZY...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST...DOWNSTREAM OF A UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO AND CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS IN SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE A
WHOLE LOT...PERHAPS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A STEADY STREAM OF MID-LVL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND KEEP US IN A COOL...CLOUDY AND MOIST PATTERN. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY END UP TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND
SATURDAY...IT COULD DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A
DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY SUNDAY. OF IT COULD ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS NRN MX AND TX...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT COULD DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THUS
IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW POTENTIAL COULD ENTER THE MIX EARLY SAT AND
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT IF THE PRECIP LINGERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     32  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     36  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     38  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
956
FXUS64 KLUB 252145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS BREACHING INTO THE 60S ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BRINGS A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE
OF A STOUT UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S ON MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND MID 30S
TO LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE MONDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD...BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE FINAL WEEK
OF JANUARY. FULL INSOLATION AND H85 THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WITH UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS WEST
TEXAS TO THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING IN BREEZY...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST...DOWNSTREAM OF A UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO AND CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS IN SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE A
WHOLE LOT...PERHAPS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A STEADY STREAM OF MID-LVL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND KEEP US IN A COOL...CLOUDY AND MOIST PATTERN. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY END UP TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND
SATURDAY...IT COULD DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A
DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY SUNDAY. OF IT COULD ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS NRN MX AND TX...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT COULD DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THUS
IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW POTENTIAL COULD ENTER THE MIX EARLY SAT AND
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT IF THE PRECIP LINGERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     32  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     36  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     38  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33
155
FXUS64 KLUB 251734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES WILL
IMPACT KCDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 10
KNOTS THIS EVENING. KPVW AND KLBB WILL SEE 10-15 KNOT SUSTAINED
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF BY SUNSET.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX SPIRALING SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
AHEAD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE HAD
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRINGES OF A NORTHERLY LLJ OCCUPYING
WESTERN OK. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SPELLS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN
MAX TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE THICKNESSES BY
LATE AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MILD
SURFACE RIDGING THEN OVERSPREADS MUCH OF WEST TX TONIGHT FROM NEW
MEXICO COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
DRY AIR AND MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
S/SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.
LOCALLY...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL AID TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
70 BY WED. AND LOWER 70S BOTH TUE/WED OFF THE CAPROCK. IMPRESSIVE
WARMTH FOR LATE JANUARY WITH TEMPS 15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS BEGINNING TO SEVERELY DIVERGE ON THURSDAY. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE WEST COAST TROF CLOSER TO W TX ALONG
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. ECM IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. IN
EITHER SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE MARGINAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF RESIDUAL COLD AIR THAT CAN SNEAK SOUTH FROM THE PERSISTENT NWLY
FLOW...PART OF NORTHERN STREAM JET. HAVE REFLECTED COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY IN THE 50S... AND 40S AREAWIDE WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SOME POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  27  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  29  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     52  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   59  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  33  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          62  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  33  70  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
931
FXUS64 KLUB 251125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH STEADY NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AT PVW AND LBB...HIGHER
AT CDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX SPIRALING SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
AHEAD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE HAD
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRINGES OF A NORTHERLY LLJ OCCUPYING
WESTERN OK. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SPELLS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN
MAX TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE THICKNESSES BY
LATE AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MILD
SURFACE RIDGING THEN OVERSPREADS MUCH OF WEST TX TONIGHT FROM NEW
MEXICO COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
DRY AIR AND MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
S/SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.
LOCALLY...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL AID TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
70 BY WED. AND LOWER 70S BOTH TUE/WED OFF THE CAPROCK. IMPRESSIVE
WARMTH FOR LATE JANUARY WITH TEMPS 15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS BEGINNING TO SEVERELY DIVERGE ON THURSDAY. GFS IS MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE WEST COAST TROF CLOSER TO W TX ALONG
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. ECM IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. IN
EITHER SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE MARGINAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF RESIDUAL COLD AIR THAT CAN SNEAK SOUTH FROM THE PERSISTENT NWLY
FLOW...PART OF NORTHERN STREAM JET. HAVE REFLECTED COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY IN THE 50S... AND 40S AREAWIDE WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SOME POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. JAMES

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
938
FXUS64 KLUB 250924
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
324 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX SPIRALING SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
AHEAD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE HAD
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRINGES OF A NORTHERLY LLJ OCCUPYING
WESTERN OK. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SPELLS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN
MAX TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE THICKNESSES BY
LATE AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MILD
SURFACE RIDGING THEN OVERSPREADS MUCH OF WEST TX TONIGHT FROM NEW
MEXICO COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...
DRY AIR AND MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
S/SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.
LOCALLY...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL AID TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
70 BY WED. AND LOWER 70S BOTH TUE/WED OFF THE CAPROCK. IMPRESSIVE
WARMTH FOR LATE JANUARY WITH TEMPS 15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS BEGINNING TO SEVERELY DIVERGE ON THURSDAY. GFS IS MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE WEST COAST TROF CLOSER TO W TX ALONG
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. ECM IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. IN
EITHER SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE MARGINAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF RESIDUAL COLD AIR THAT CAN SNEAK SOUTH FROM THE PERSISTENT NWLY
FLOW...PART OF NORTHERN STREAM JET. HAVE REFLECTED COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY IN THE 50S... AND 40S AREAWIDE WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SOME POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  27  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  29  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     52  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   59  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  33  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          62  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  33  70  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/06
502
FXUS64 KLUB 250530
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS VEER TO NORTH/NNW AND INCREASE
BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. MOSTLY LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME NW/NORTH AND INCREASE SOME BY NOON SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
INSOLATION AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS STILL
HOLDING ONTO SNOWPACK REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...THUS THE RATIONALE
FOR BUMPING LOWS UP A TAD. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS WHILE OTHER LOCALES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAKING HEADWAY INTO
THE MIDWEST WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BACKDOOR INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. ONLY
EXPECT THIS TO TEMPER THE ONGOING WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK WITH 60S TAKING PLACE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING WAVE WILL
TURN EAST AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STARTING A COOLING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A DEEP TROUGH
WILL FORM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THUS
HAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE POPS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...SUPPRESSES THE CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR SW AS A SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST...KEEPING US IN COOLER...DRIER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER POPS. BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES ROUGHLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES EITHER WAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER IN THE LATEST RUNS AS THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...THUS
RAIN IS THE FAVORED PRECIP-TYPE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. FURTHER
COOLING MAY BRING SNOW INTO THE MIX BY SATURDAY NIGHT IF PRECIP IS
ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  50  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  52  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     28  58  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       29  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  59  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  61  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          33  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
918
FXUS64 KLUB 242317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
517 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. MOSTLY LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME NW/NORTH AND INCREASE SOME BY NOON SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
INSOLATION AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS STILL
HOLDING ONTO SNOWPACK REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...THUS THE RATIONALE
FOR BUMPING LOWS UP A TAD. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS WHILE OTHER LOCALES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAKING HEADWAY INTO
THE MIDWEST WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BACKDOOR INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. ONLY
EXPECT THIS TO TEMPER THE ONGOING WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK WITH 60S TAKING PLACE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING WAVE WILL
TURN EAST AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STARTING A COOLING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A DEEP TROUGH
WILL FORM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THUS
HAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE POPS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...SUPPRESSES THE CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR SW AS A SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST...KEEPING US IN COOLER...DRIER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER POPS. BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES ROUGHLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES EITHER WAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER IN THE LATEST RUNS AS THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...THUS
RAIN IS THE FAVORED PRECIP-TYPE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. FURTHER
COOLING MAY BRING SNOW INTO THE MIX BY SATURDAY NIGHT IF PRECIP IS
ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  50  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  52  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     28  58  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       29  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  59  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  61  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          33  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
754
FXUS64 KLUB 242145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
INSOLATION AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS STILL
HOLDING ONTO SNOWPACK REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...THUS THE RATIONALE
FOR BUMPING LOWS UP A TAD. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS WHILE OTHER LOCALES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAKING HEADWAY INTO
THE MIDWEST WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BACKDOOR INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. ONLY
EXPECT THIS TO TEMPER THE ONGOING WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK WITH 60S TAKING PLACE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING WAVE WILL
TURN EAST AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STARTING A COOLING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A DEEP TROUGH
WILL FORM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THUS
HAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE POPS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...SUPPRESSES THE CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR SW AS A SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST...KEEPING US IN COOLER...DRIER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER POPS. BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES ROUGHLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES EITHER WAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER IN THE LATEST RUNS AS THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...THUS
RAIN IS THE FAVORED PRECIP-TYPE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. FURTHER
COOLING MAY BRING SNOW INTO THE MIX BY SATURDAY NIGHT IF PRECIP IS
ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  50  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  52  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     28  58  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       29  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  59  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  61  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          33  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33
677
FXUS64 KLUB 241741
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW CIRRUS
FILTERING IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNDER WEAK AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
RETROGRADING LOW NEAR BAJA CA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET
HAS BEEN DIRECTING A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
ALL NIGHT...BUT CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO HOME SHOULD KEEP
THESE CLOUDS FROM DISRUPTING OUR SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENT
FLOW WILL SERVE TO BOOST HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...HOWEVER MAX
TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK GIVEN LINGERING SNOW COVER AND MORE TOPSOIL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS A BIT
TONIGHT AREA WIDE GIVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY W-NW WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH HAVE THUS FAR KEPT TEMPS FROM CRATERING OVER THE
THICKEST OF SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY THANKS TO THE RIDGE
AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE JET STREAM AND MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
REGION AND A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BUT WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DRYLINE DEVELOPS AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SECOND CLOSED DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO DRAW SOME OF THE MOISTURE
OVER THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES EXIST JUST PAST THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHERE THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER BLAST OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER. 850HPA TEMPS
IN THE GFS DROP TO AROUND -10 C WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO 0C
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  24  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  26  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  25  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  27  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  25  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          54  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
715
FXUS64 KLUB 241127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
527 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WLY WINDS THRU 12Z SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNDER WEAK AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
RETROGRADING LOW NEAR BAJA CA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET
HAS BEEN DIRECTING A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
ALL NIGHT...BUT CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO HOME SHOULD KEEP
THESE CLOUDS FROM DISRUPTING OUR SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENT
FLOW WILL SERVE TO BOOST HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...HOWEVER MAX
TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK GIVEN LINGERING SNOW COVER AND MORE TOPSOIL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS A BIT
TONIGHT AREA WIDE GIVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY W-NW WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH HAVE THUS FAR KEPT TEMPS FROM CRATERING OVER THE
THICKEST OF SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY THANKS TO THE RIDGE
AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE JET STREAM AND MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
REGION AND A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BUT WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DRYLINE DEVELOPS AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SECOND CLOSED DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO DRAW SOME OF THE MOISTURE
OVER THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES EXIST JUST PAST THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHERE THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER BLAST OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER. 850HPA TEMPS
IN THE GFS DROP TO AROUND -10 C WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO 0C
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
525
FXUS64 KLUB 241011
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
411 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNDER WEAK AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
RETROGRADING LOW NEAR BAJA CA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET
HAS BEEN DIRECTING A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
ALL NIGHT...BUT CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO HOME SHOULD KEEP
THESE CLOUDS FROM DISRUPTING OUR SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENT
FLOW WILL SERVE TO BOOST HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...HOWEVER MAX
TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK GIVEN LINGERING SNOW COVER AND MORE TOPSOIL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS A BIT
TONIGHT AREA WIDE GIVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY W-NW WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH HAVE THUS FAR KEPT TEMPS FROM CRATERING OVER THE
THICKEST OF SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY THANKS TO THE RIDGE
AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE JET STREAM AND MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
REGION AND A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BUT WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DRYLINE DEVELOPS AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SECOND CLOSED DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO DRAW SOME OF THE MOISTURE
OVER THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES EXIST JUST PAST THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHERE THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER BLAST OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER. 850HPA TEMPS
IN THE GFS DROP TO AROUND -10 C WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO 0C
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  24  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  26  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  25  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  27  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  25  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          54  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
294
FXUS64 KLUB 240538
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AT THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND
REMAINING SNOW PACK OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO ADVECTING NEAR TO EITHER
KPVW OR KLBB BUT SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY NOT EXPICITLY INDICATING THIS.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE REGION UNDER DRY NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO NW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
THE EARLIER WEEK RAIN/SNOW...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND 40S IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOWPACK.
SHOULD SEE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERALL. ALTHOUGH
WARMER THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
STORE WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ATOP SNOWPACK WITH
MID-UPPER 20S SOUTH AND EAST. ANY FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEGATED BY
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE WHILE MAINTAINING A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT.

LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONTINUED EXPENSE OF
SOLAR ENERGY ON THE LATENT HEAT FLUX WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ON THE CAPROCK...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NEAR FRIONA TO LOW
50S NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. SNOW FREE AREAS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE UNEVENTFUL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO A HEALTHY WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A CLOSED LOW WILL SIT OUT
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN AS IT COMES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE LEE TROUGHING FURTHER BUMPING TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH THE 70S AGAIN AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BECOME
CUT OFF...OFF SHORE. MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING A REX
BLOCK TYPE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO WEST TEXAS.
FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL LEAD SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS EXTREMELY HIGH AT THE MOMENT SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         19  48  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     22  49  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  51  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       23  53  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   22  51  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  51  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     26  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  55  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
888
FXUS64 KLUB 232304
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
504 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE REGION UNDER DRY NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO NW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
THE EARLIER WEEK RAIN/SNOW...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND 40S IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOWPACK.
SHOULD SEE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERALL. ALTHOUGH
WARMER THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
STORE WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ATOP SNOWPACK WITH
MID-UPPER 20S SOUTH AND EAST. ANY FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEGATED BY
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE WHILE MAINTAINING A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT.

LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONTINUED EXPENSE OF
SOLAR ENERGY ON THE LATENT HEAT FLUX WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ON THE CAPROCK...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NEAR FRIONA TO LOW
50S NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. SNOW FREE AREAS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE UNEVENTFUL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO A HEALTHY WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A CLOSED LOW WILL SIT OUT
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN AS IT COMES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE LEE TROUGHING FURTHER BUMPING TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH THE 70S AGAIN AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BECOME
CUT OFF...OFF SHORE. MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING A REX
BLOCK TYPE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO WEST TEXAS.
FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL LEAD SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS EXTREMELY HIGH AT THE MOMENT SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         19  48  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     22  49  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  51  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       23  53  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   22  51  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  51  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     26  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  55  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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