Area Forecast Discussion
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153
FXUS64 KLUB 190454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KLBB AND KPVW
WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE IN THE NIGHT. TRENDS INDICATE PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT FOR THE AREA BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL AWAIT MIXING
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT KCDS...MORE COMPLEX WITH PLAY OF OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH RETREATING DRYLINE EARLY IN THE
MORNING. BELIEVE CURRENT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BACK TO THE EAST OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE NIGHT. STILL A THREAT FOR FOG AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AND THIS COULD GO DOWN IN A HURRY SHOULD THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT ACTUALLY DEVELOP AT KCDS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO DOMINATING AT KCDS AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
090
FXUS64 KLUB 190133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99
402
FXUS64 KLUB 190003
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
860
FXUS64 KLUB 181959
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  37  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         73  42  64  37 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     73  43  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  41 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  71  42 /  20  20   0   0
SPUR          79  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  75  46 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07
060
FXUS64 KLUB 181733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 19/18Z. REMOTE CHANCE OF TSRA
NEAR KCDS 20Z-24Z. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 19/12Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  64  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  72  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  76  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99/13
385
FXUS64 KLUB 181120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING AS
VISIBILITIES HAVE CRATERED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 27/US 87 CORRIDOR. SHOULD SEE THIS MIX OUT AS
HEATING COMMENCES WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING PROMPTING AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. KPVW AND KLBB WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTWARD
EDGE OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...BUT KCDS COULD SEE A MUCH LONGER STINT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR ALL SITES BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR/BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  64  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  72  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  76  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ023>026-
029>032-035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

31
319
FXUS64 KLUB 180943
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  65  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  67  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  46  71  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  73  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  77  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55
724
FXUS64 KLUB 180447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE INSERTING A MENTION OF
FOG AND INCREASING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE
HAS MOVED FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS FORECAST BRINGING IN MOIST AIR
ON THE CAPROCK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DEVELOPING FOG IN THE
MOIST AIR THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHERMORE...T/TD SPREADS OFF THE
CAPROCK WERE ALREADY RUNNING BETWEEN 1-2 DEGREES. IT IS STILL
NEBULOUS ON WHETHER AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL SEE FOG OR NOT. THE
DRYLINE RECENTLY ENCOUNTERED A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
GREATLY SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. AT SOME POINT...THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY RAISED ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK WHERE THIS
MOISTURE HAS INVADED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING FOG INTO THE
KCDS TERMINAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO KLBB OR KPVW. A DRYLINE BOUNDARY IS
CLOSE TO BOTH TERMINALS WHICH MAKES IT UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL.
IF MOISTURE DOES HANG ON...THEN FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KLBB AND KPVW. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         48  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     49  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       50  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          54  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
678
FXUS64 KLUB 172326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WAS BREAKING UP NEAR KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE AT VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL RETURN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AT ALL TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         43  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     44  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          53  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
328
FXUS64 KLUB 172021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  40  70  40 /  10   0   0  10
TULIA         76  43  73  44 /  20   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     77  44  73  45 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  43  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       78  45  76  47 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     68  55  79  51 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          78  53  79  50 /  40  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  56  81  52 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07
263
FXUS64 KLUB 171720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AT LBB AND PVW WITH LOW CIGS PERSISTING AT CDS FOR
MUCH /IF NOT ALL/ OF THIS TAF CYCLE. IFR CIGS AT CDS ARE BEGINNING
TO LIFT...BUT COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO KEEP MVFR
LAYERS INTACT THRU 18Z SAT AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. THERE REMAINS A
WINDOW FOR TSRA NEAR CDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THE
CHANCE THAT THESE IMPACT THE SITE IS TOO LOW ATTM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07/93
046
FXUS64 KLUB 171142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
TSRA HAS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD COME TO AN END AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING AND EXACT SPATIAL EXTENT REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING MENTION SILENT FOR NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS AND EAST OF A
DRYLINE...BUT THIS PROBABILITY/TIMING AGAIN REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE.

KLBB AND KPVW SHOULD HOLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
579
FXUS64 KLUB 170821
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

.LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AS
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST
AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE
WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55
765
FXUS64 KLUB 170512
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1212 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS WEAKENING WITH IT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
BOTH KLBB AND KPVW ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR KCDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR KCDS BRINGING IN POSSIBLE
LOWERED CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THIS MAY
BRING AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  41  70  42 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         75  44  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     74  44  74  46 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       76  46  75  47 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   73  44  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  46  76  48 /  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     78  55  78  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  53  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  56  82  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
377
FXUS64 KLUB 162336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  71  41  70 /  40  10   0  10
TULIA         50  75  44  73 /  60  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  74  45  73 /  60  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     48  74  44  74 /  50  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       51  76  46  75 /  60  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   47  73  44  74 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  74  46  76 /  40  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     58  78  55  78 /  60  50  20  10
SPUR          53  77  53  79 /  60  40  10  10
ASPERMONT     58  79  56  82 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
516
FXUS64 KLUB 161933
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/93
992
FXUS64 KLUB 161719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
TRICKY TIMING AROUND THUNDER CHANCES FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. LOOKS
LIKE MVFR CEILING AT KCDS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL AMEND IF LIFTS QUICKER...THEN HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
THUNDER GROUP LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH GOOD
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY. KPVW AND KLBB INITIALLY ON
THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE BUT EXPECT RETREATING DRYLINE THIS
EVENING WITH DYNAMIC LIFT AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
STEERING BY JUST TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PROB30
THUNDER GROUP LATER TONIGHT TO MEET WITH THIS POSSIBLE EVENT. WE
ARE NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONING SEVERE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL
AMEND IF A SUPERCELL APPROACHES ANY TAF SITE. ALSO...AS SHORT
RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO ADJUST WE WILL LIKEWISE ADD OR REMOVE
THUNDER THREATS AS CONFIDENCE ALLOWS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

UPDATE...
FLUID SITUATION THIS MORNING WITH INGREDIENTS STILL PIECING
TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED WITH NEAR 60 SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE WIND COMPONENTS HAVE
VEERED SLIGHTLY ALREADY OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INDICATING
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS REGION WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO
FOLLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT COULD PROVE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OUT WEST...TRAILING DYNAMIC
ENERGY WAS LEADING TO LIGHT MOSTLY ALOFT SHOWERS ALONG THE STATE
LINE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED IN THIS AREA AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ALSO...TO
THE SOUTH WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A POCKET OF DYNAMIC ENERGY ALL
MORNING THAT HAS NOT PROVEN EFFECTIVE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INSISTENT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. FINALLY...BACK WEST...A NOTABLE SHORT-WAVE LOBE OF ENERGY
WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT ITSELF
WAS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS.

SO...LOTS ON THE TABLE AND PLENTY TO CONSIDER.

TO START...WE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE EXISTING CONVERGENCE AND
ANTICIPATE INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT
MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW LOW-END SUPERCELLS. THE LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE WEST MIGHT JUST REMAIN AND ACTUALLY MATURE WITH SURFACE
HEATING...OR COULD CLEAR OUT AS THE DYMAMICS SHEAR NORTH. HARD TO
SAY. WE EXPECT SEVERE WATCHES WILL BE CONSIDERED ACROSS PANHANDLE
MAYBE INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO THE WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
EVEN INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AT LEAST. AND LATER TONIGHT WE THINK
A SECOND ROUND OF OVERTURNING CONVECTION IS A REAL POSSIBILITY
WITH ADEQUATE CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM RANGE AND
SHEARS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. IN BETWEEN...THIS EVENING...IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BACKING AND MOISTURE INCREASING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT PACKING ALONG A RETREATING DRY-LINE BETWEEN 23Z-03Z
OR SO THIS AREA ALONG WITH NOTABLE 0-3KM HELICITIES AND RELATIVELY
LOW LCLS.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WE HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WE
PULLED HIGHER CHANCES WEST TO THE STATE LINE FOR A POSSIBLE
NOCTURNAL EVENT. CONTINUED MENTION OF SEVERE THREAT OF COURSE. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES UNLESS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINALS. KCDS HAS BEST CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM PASSING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP INTO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING KCDS. KPVW AND KLBB HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT AFTER 21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THEM TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND WEAK...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STABILIZING EFFECT OUT AHEAD OF DRYLINE CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN FACT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
VISIBLE ON RADAR COULD SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEEPENS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40KTS...SURFACE
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 700MB TEMPS IN LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES...HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/S ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ON THE LOW END OF EF-
SCALE.

DECENT CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE PROVIDING CONFIDENCE...OF A DRYLINE FORMING THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS...PRIMARILY JUST TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. SPC HAS ISSUED
AN ENHANCED DAY 1 RISK THAT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATES...AND CURRENTLY COVERS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOON AFTER 21Z WITH PEAK
HEATING...APPROX IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ALSO COINCIDING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO THAT TRANSECTS THE
DRYLINE AROUND THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING INTO
SUPERCELLS IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY WHICH AT THIS TIME
WOULD EXTEND FROM CROSBY COUNTY EAST THROUGH KING COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISCOE AND CHILDRESS COUNTY. AS THE STORMS
EVOLVE AND THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO THE EVENING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT MAINLY WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LATEST INTERMEDIATE 6Z GUIDANCE HINTS
AT A WEAK SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTION EVOLVES BEFORE HAVING MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO.

LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THUS UL SUPPORT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING VIA
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST FROM THE ERN NM TO
ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE UA LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT TIED TO
THE PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA...HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT IT PINCHING OFF LATER TODAY
AND THUS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC. AS SUCH...THE SPEED OF THE UA LOW
COULD SLOW DOWN/BECOME WOBBLY AS THE CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO
ACROSS NM TONIGHT...AND TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

DESPITE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WRT TO THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE UA
LOW...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES. TOMORROW...THE GFS IS QUITE ROBUST IN SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF A DEEPER NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND THUS BREEZY W-SW SFC
WINDS INVADING THE FA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND EXHIBITS
THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP AOA THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
AFTN...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE SFC TROUGH...THEREBY
LEADING TO LIGHTER W-SW WIND SPEEDS. THIS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CI OCCURRING ACROSS OUR ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA PER THE
GFS...OR OFF THE CAPROCK PER THE NAM AND ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.00 INCH OR SO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/...MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND 40-45 KTS OF 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR...STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAKING THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT. SINCE THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT CLOSE TO ON THE CAPROCK TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EWRD TO EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
BY SATURDAY AFTN...COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS. THIS IS A SIGN OF THE UA LOW/S NWRD
JOG TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND HENCE THE CWA GETTING DRYSLOTTED.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEREFORE SHIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPINGING ON
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPEND ON THE UA
LOW/S EXACT TRACK /THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UA LOW AND HENCE IS NOT SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/.

A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BUT
FLEETING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL PRECIP HARD-
PRESSED TO DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO AN E-SE COMPONENT. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH THE RETURN OF THE DRYLINE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  68  41  70 /  50  10  10  10
TULIA         50  72  44  73 /  60  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  72  45  73 /  60  30  10  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  44  74 /  50  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  74  46  75 /  50  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   49  72  44  74 /  40  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    52  74  46  76 /  50  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  78  55  78 /  60  50  30  20
SPUR          56  76  53  79 /  60  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     60  77  56  82 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
949
FXUS64 KLUB 161555
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1055 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FLUID SITUATION THIS MORNING WITH INGREDIENTS STILL PIECING
TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED WITH NEAR 60 SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE WIND COMPONENTS HAVE
VEERED SLIGHTLY ALREADY OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INDICATING
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS REGION WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO
FOLLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT COULD PROVE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OUT WEST...TRAILING DYNAMIC
ENERGY WAS LEADING TO LIGHT MOSTLY ALOFT SHOWERS ALONG THE STATE
LINE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED IN THIS AREA AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ALSO...TO
THE SOUTH WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A POCKET OF DYNAMIC ENERGY ALL
MORNING THAT HAS NOT PROVEN EFFECTIVE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INSISTENT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. FINALLY...BACK WEST...A NOTABLE SHORT-WAVE LOBE OF ENERGY
WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT ITSELF
WAS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS.

SO...LOTS ON THE TABLE AND PLENTY TO CONSIDER.

TO START...WE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE EXISTING CONVERGENCE AND
ANTICIPATE INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT
MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW LOW-END SUPERCELLS. THE LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE WEST MIGHT JUST REMAIN AND ACTUALLY MATURE WITH SURFACE
HEATING...OR COULD CLEAR OUT AS THE DYMAMICS SHEAR NORTH. HARD TO
SAY. WE EXPECT SEVERE WATCHES WILL BE CONSIDERED ACROSS PANHANDLE
MAYBE INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO THE WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
EVEN INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AT LEAST. AND LATER TONIGHT WE THINK
A SECOND ROUND OF OVERTURNING CONVECTION IS A REAL POSSIBILITY
WITH ADEQUATE CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM RANGE AND
SHEARS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. IN BETWEEN...THIS EVENING...IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BACKING AND MOISTURE INCREASING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT PACKING ALONG A RETREATING DRY-LINE BETWEEN 23Z-03Z
OR SO THIS AREA ALONG WITH NOTABLE 0-3KM HELICITIES AND RELATIVELY
LOW LCLS.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WE HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WE
PULLED HIGHER CHANCES WEST TO THE STATE LINE FOR A POSSIBLE
NOCTURNAL EVENT. CONTINUED MENTION OF SEVERE THREAT OF COURSE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES UNLESS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINALS. KCDS HAS BEST CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM PASSING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP INTO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING KCDS. KPVW AND KLBB HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT AFTER 21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THEM TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND WEAK...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STABILIZING EFFECT OUT AHEAD OF DRYLINE CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN FACT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
VISIBLE ON RADAR COULD SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEEPENS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40KTS...SURFACE
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 700MB TEMPS IN LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES...HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/S ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ON THE LOW END OF EF-
SCALE.

DECENT CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE PROVIDING CONFIDENCE...OF A DRYLINE FORMING THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS...PRIMARILY JUST TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. SPC HAS ISSUED
AN ENHANCED DAY 1 RISK THAT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATES...AND CURRENTLY COVERS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOON AFTER 21Z WITH PEAK
HEATING...APPROX IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ALSO COINCIDING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO THAT TRANSECTS THE
DRYLINE AROUND THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING INTO
SUPERCELLS IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY WHICH AT THIS TIME
WOULD EXTEND FROM CROSBY COUNTY EAST THROUGH KING COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISCOE AND CHILDRESS COUNTY. AS THE STORMS
EVOLVE AND THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO THE EVENING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT MAINLY WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LATEST INTERMEDIATE 6Z GUIDANCE HINTS
AT A WEAK SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTION EVOLVES BEFORE HAVING MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO.

LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THUS UL SUPPORT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING VIA
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST FROM THE ERN NM TO
ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE UA LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT TIED TO
THE PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA...HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT IT PINCHING OFF LATER TODAY
AND THUS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC. AS SUCH...THE SPEED OF THE UA LOW
COULD SLOW DOWN/BECOME WOBBLY AS THE CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO
ACROSS NM TONIGHT...AND TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

DESPITE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WRT TO THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE UA
LOW...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES. TOMORROW...THE GFS IS QUITE ROBUST IN SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF A DEEPER NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND THUS BREEZY W-SW SFC
WINDS INVADING THE FA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND EXHIBITS
THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP AOA THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
AFTN...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE SFC TROUGH...THEREBY
LEADING TO LIGHTER W-SW WIND SPEEDS. THIS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CI OCCURRING ACROSS OUR ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA PER THE
GFS...OR OFF THE CAPROCK PER THE NAM AND ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.00 INCH OR SO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/...MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND 40-45 KTS OF 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR...STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAKING THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT. SINCE THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT CLOSE TO ON THE CAPROCK TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EWRD TO EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
BY SATURDAY AFTN...COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS. THIS IS A SIGN OF THE UA LOW/S NWRD
JOG TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND HENCE THE CWA GETTING DRYSLOTTED.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEREFORE SHIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPINGING ON
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPEND ON THE UA
LOW/S EXACT TRACK /THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UA LOW AND HENCE IS NOT SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/.

A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BUT
FLEETING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL PRECIP HARD-
PRESSED TO DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO AN E-SE COMPONENT. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH THE RETURN OF THE DRYLINE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  43  68  41 /  30  50  10  10
TULIA         76  50  72  44 /  70  60  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  52  72  45 /  60  60  30  10
LEVELLAND     76  50  72  44 /  30  50  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  53  74  46 /  50  50  20  20
DENVER CITY   76  49  72  44 /  20  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  52  74  46 /  30  50  20  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  78  55 /  70  60  50  30
SPUR          78  56  76  53 /  60  60  40  20
ASPERMONT     80  60  77  56 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99
890
FXUS64 KLUB 161057
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
557 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES UNLESS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINALS. KCDS HAS BEST CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM PASSING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP INTO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING KCDS. KPVW AND KLBB HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THEM TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND WEAK...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STABILIZING EFFECT OUT AHEAD OF DRYLINE CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN FACT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
VISIBLE ON RADAR COULD SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEEPENS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40KTS...SURFACE
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 700MB TEMPS IN LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES...HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/S ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ON THE LOW END OF EF-
SCALE.

DECENT CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE PROVIDING CONFIDENCE...OF A DRYLINE FORMING THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS...PRIMARILY JUST TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. SPC HAS ISSUED
AN ENHANCED DAY 1 RISK THAT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATES...AND CURRENTLY COVERS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOON AFTER 21Z WITH PEAK
HEATING...APPROX IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ALSO COINCIDING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO THAT TRANSECTS THE
DRYLINE AROUND THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING INTO
SUPERCELLS IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY WHICH AT THIS TIME
WOULD EXTEND FROM CROSBY COUNTY EAST THROUGH KING COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISCOE AND CHILDRESS COUNTY. AS THE STORMS
EVOLVE AND THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO THE EVENING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT MAINLY WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LATEST INTERMEDIATE 6Z GUIDANCE HINTS
AT A WEAK SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTION EVOLVES BEFORE HAVING MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO.

LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THUS UL SUPPORT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING VIA
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST FROM THE ERN NM TO
ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE UA LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT TIED TO
THE PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA...HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT IT PINCHING OFF LATER TODAY
AND THUS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC. AS SUCH...THE SPEED OF THE UA LOW
COULD SLOW DOWN/BECOME WOBBLY AS THE CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO
ACROSS NM TONIGHT...AND TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

DESPITE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WRT TO THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE UA
LOW...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES. TOMORROW...THE GFS IS QUITE ROBUST IN SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF A DEEPER NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND THUS BREEZY W-SW SFC
WINDS INVADING THE FA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND EXHIBITS
THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP AOA THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
AFTN...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE SFC TROUGH...THEREBY
LEADING TO LIGHTER W-SW WIND SPEEDS. THIS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CI OCCURRING ACROSS OUR ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA PER THE
GFS...OR OFF THE CAPROCK PER THE NAM AND ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.00 INCH OR SO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/...MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND 40-45 KTS OF 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR...STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAKING THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT. SINCE THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT CLOSE TO ON THE CAPROCK TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EWRD TO EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
BY SATURDAY AFTN...COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS. THIS IS A SIGN OF THE UA LOW/S NWRD
JOG TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND HENCE THE CWA GETTING DRYSLOTTED.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEREFORE SHIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPINGING ON
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPEND ON THE UA
LOW/S EXACT TRACK /THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UA LOW AND HENCE IS NOT SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/.

A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BUT
FLEETING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL PRECIP HARD-
PRESSED TO DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO AN E-SE COMPONENT. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH THE RETURN OF THE DRYLINE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  43  68  41 /  30  30  10  10
TULIA         76  50  72  44 /  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  52  72  45 /  50  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     76  50  72  44 /  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  53  74  46 /  50  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   76  49  72  44 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  52  74  46 /  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  78  55 /  70  60  50  30
SPUR          78  56  76  53 /  60  60  40  20
ASPERMONT     80  60  77  56 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/55
648
FXUS64 KLUB 160943
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
443 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THEM TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND WEAK...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STABILIZING EFFECT OUT AHEAD OF DRYLINE CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN FACT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
VISIBLE ON RADAR COULD SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEEPENS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40KTS...SURFACE
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 700MB TEMPS IN LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES...HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/S ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ON THE LOW END OF EF-
SCALE.

DECENT CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE PROVIDING CONFIDENCE...OF A DRYLINE FORMING THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS...PRIMARILY JUST TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. SPC HAS ISSUED
AN ENHANCED DAY 1 RISK THAT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATES...AND CURRENTLY COVERS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOON AFTER 21Z WITH PEAK
HEATING...APPROX IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ALSO COINCIDING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO THAT TRANSECTS THE
DRYLINE AROUND THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING INTO
SUPERCELLS IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY WHICH AT THIS TIME
WOULD EXTEND FROM CROSBY COUNTY EAST THROUGH KING COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISCOE AND CHILDRESS COUNTY. AS THE STORMS
EVOLVE AND THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO THE EVENING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT MAINLY WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LATEST INTERMEDIATE 6Z GUIDANCE HINTS
AT A WEAK SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTION EVOLVES BEFORE HAVING MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO.


.LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THUS UL SUPPORT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING VIA
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST FROM THE ERN NM TO
ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE UA LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT TIED TO
THE PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA...HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT IT PINCHING OFF LATER TODAY
AND THUS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC. AS SUCH...THE SPEED OF THE UA LOW
COULD SLOW DOWN/BECOME WOBBLY AS THE CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO
ACROSS NM TONIGHT...AND TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

DESPITE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WRT TO THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE UA
LOW...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES. TOMORROW...THE GFS IS QUITE ROBUST IN SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF A DEEPER NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND THUS BREEZY W-SW SFC
WINDS INVADING THE FA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND EXHIBITS
THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP AOA THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
AFTN...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE SFC TROUGH...THEREBY
LEADING TO LIGHTER W-SW WIND SPEEDS. THIS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CI OCCURRING ACROSS OUR ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA PER THE
GFS...OR OFF THE CAPROCK PER THE NAM AND ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.00 INCH OR SO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/...MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND 40-45 KTS OF 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR...STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAKING THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT. SINCE THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT CLOSE TO ON THE CAPROCK TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EWRD TO EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
BY SATURDAY AFTN...COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS. THIS IS A SIGN OF THE UA LOW/S NWRD
JOG TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND HENCE THE CWA GETTING DRYSLOTTED.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEREFORE SHIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPINGING ON
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPEND ON THE UA
LOW/S EXACT TRACK /THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UA LOW AND HENCE IS NOT SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/.

A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BUT
FLEETING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL PRECIP HARD-
PRESSED TO DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO AN E-SE COMPONENT. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH THE RETURN OF THE DRYLINE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  43  68  41 /  30  30  10  10
TULIA         76  50  72  44 /  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  52  72  45 /  50  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     76  50  72  44 /  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  53  74  46 /  50  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   76  49  72  44 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  52  74  46 /  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  78  55 /  70  60  50  30
SPUR          78  56  76  53 /  60  60  40  20
ASPERMONT     80  60  77  56 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/29
055
FXUS64 KLUB 160449
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT ANY TAF SITE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT SOME FOG MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT KCDS ON
THURSDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT. A MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY EVEN
RECEIVE A REINFORCING BOOST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT. LIGHT VISBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
AT ALL TAF SITES BUT WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO SEE FOG DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY AT ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY. SKIP TO
FINAL PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS...LINEAR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD WAS PERCOLATING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR WEST-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW NEAR VERNAL UTAH LATE TODAY WILL SWIRL
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNER LATE THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE STRONGER LIFT AND DIFLUENCE
ZONE APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ENERGETIC LOBE SWINGING
NORTHEAST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS EVENING...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BECOME DEPLETED AS
EXPECTED WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE. INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE HIGH-BASED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OUT EAST...A DRYLINE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY EDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND COULD LEAD TO
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS HALL-
BRISCOE COUNTY AREA THOUGH WE ARE NOT YET SEEING CUMULUS IN THIS
REGION.

OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THAT NEXT ROUND OF DYNAMIC LIFT...AND
COUPLED WITH IMPROVING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDER MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WESTERN
ZONES. HOW FAR THIS COULD SPREAD EAST IS UNCERTAIN BUT WE HAVE
RETAINED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT FAVORING OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
COULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS BATCH. WE
CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF A MATURE COLD POOL
SPREADING CONVECTION INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALSO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES BUT SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A NOTCH OR TWO STRONGER AND
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BETTER MIXED SO HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION
OUT. AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD DEBRIS
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER SWIRL OFF INTO EASTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY-LINE THAT MAY START OUT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO LINE EARLIER SHOULD SURGE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ZONES WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOLID THUNDER CHANCES ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL AREAS SPREADING INTO EASTERN LATE IN THE
DAY. INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500 AND POSSIBLE 2500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25-50 KNOT RANGE INDICATE A
SOLID POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CASE ANALOGS WITH PAST SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING EVENTS AND HAS LED
TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATE
THURSDAY. WE ALREADY HAVE RAMPED UP WORDING IN PRODUCTS TO INDICATE
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMINGLY WOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WITH LOCAL LENGTHENING OF THE LOWEST HODOGRAPH REGION
AS STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTING OF THE DRY-LINE POSITION WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS RELATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THURSDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A DAY TO KEEP TUNED TO THE SKY AND FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
THE RETREAT IS IN QUESTION AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER ON POSITION.
THE NAM RETREATS THE DRYLINE BACK INTO EASTERN NM WHILE THE ECMWF
ONLY BRINGS THE DRYLINE BACK TO JUST WEST OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. REGARDLESS OF POSITION THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-55 KTS...DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED
LOW LEVEL PROFILES. THE NAME SHOWS A CLOUD DECK AT 700H WHICH COULD
INHIBIT SOME OF THE SEVERITY OF STORMS...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PERSISTENT
MODEL TO SHOW THIS. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW NEARS THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL PUT US IN A DRY SLOT WITH CHANCES OF RECEIVING WRAP
AROUND PRECIP DECREASING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY COOLING TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE...MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROF THAT WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES HELP KEEP PRECIP SUSTAINED THRU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  74  41  67 /  30  40  30  10
TULIA         51  75  47  69 /  30  60  40  30
PLAINVIEW     52  75  48  69 /  30  60  40  30
LEVELLAND     54  76  48  71 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       55  77  50  72 /  30  60  40  20
DENVER CITY   53  76  48  71 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    55  77  50  72 /  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  77  55  74 /  20  60  60  50
SPUR          57  78  54  73 /  20  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     59  79  57  76 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
464
FXUS64 KLUB 152340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY EVEN
RECEIVE A REINFORCING BOOST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT. LIGHT VISBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
AT ALL TAF SITES BUT WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO SEE FOG DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY AT ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY. SKIP TO
FINAL PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS...LINEAR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD WAS PERCOLATING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR WEST-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW NEAR VERNAL UTAH LATE TODAY WILL SWIRL
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNER LATE THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE STRONGER LIFT AND DIFLUENCE
ZONE APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ENERGETIC LOBE SWINGING
NORTHEAST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS EVENING...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BECOME DEPLETED AS
EXPECTED WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE. INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE HIGH-BASED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OUT EAST...A DRYLINE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY EDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND COULD LEAD TO
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS HALL-
BRISCOE COUNTY AREA THOUGH WE ARE NOT YET SEEING CUMULUS IN THIS
REGION.

OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THAT NEXT ROUND OF DYNAMIC LIFT...AND
COUPLED WITH IMPROVING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDER MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WESTERN
ZONES. HOW FAR THIS COULD SPREAD EAST IS UNCERTAIN BUT WE HAVE
RETAINED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT FAVORING OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
COULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS BATCH. WE
CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF A MATURE COLD POOL
SPREADING CONVECTION INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALSO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES BUT SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A NOTCH OR TWO STRONGER AND
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BETTER MIXED SO HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION
OUT. AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD DEBRIS
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER SWIRL OFF INTO EASTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY-LINE THAT MAY START OUT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO LINE EARLIER SHOULD SURGE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ZONES WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOLID THUNDER CHANCES ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL AREAS SPREADING INTO EASTERN LATE IN THE
DAY. INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500 AND POSSIBLE 2500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25-50 KNOT RANGE INDICATE A
SOLID POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CASE ANALOGS WITH PAST SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING EVENTS AND HAS LED
TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATE
THURSDAY. WE ALREADY HAVE RAMPED UP WORDING IN PRODUCTS TO INDICATE
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMINGLY WOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WITH LOCAL LENGTHENING OF THE LOWEST HODOGRAPH REGION
AS STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTING OF THE DRY-LINE POSITION WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS RELATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THURSDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A DAY TO KEEP TUNED TO THE SKY AND FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
THE RETREAT IS IN QUESTION AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER ON POSITION.
THE NAM RETREATS THE DRYLINE BACK INTO EASTERN NM WHILE THE ECMWF
ONLY BRINGS THE DRYLINE BACK TO JUST WEST OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. REGARDLESS OF POSITION THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-55 KTS...DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED
LOW LEVEL PROFILES. THE NAME SHOWS A CLOUD DECK AT 700H WHICH COULD
INHIBIT SOME OF THE SEVERITY OF STORMS...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PERSISTENT
MODEL TO SHOW THIS. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW NEARS THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL PUT US IN A DRY SLOT WITH CHANCES OF RECEIVING WRAP
AROUND PRECIP DECREASING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY COOLING TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE...MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROF THAT WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES HELP KEEP PRECIP SUSTAINED THRU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  74  41  67 /  30  40  30  10
TULIA         51  75  47  69 /  30  60  40  30
PLAINVIEW     52  75  48  69 /  30  60  40  30
LEVELLAND     54  76  48  71 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       55  77  50  72 /  30  60  40  20
DENVER CITY   53  76  48  71 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    55  77  50  72 /  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  77  55  74 /  20  60  60  50
SPUR          57  78  54  73 /  20  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     59  79  57  76 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/
077
FXUS64 KLUB 152006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY. SKIP TO
FINAL PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS...LINEAR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD WAS PERCOLATING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR WEST-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW NEAR VERNAL UTAH LATE TODAY WILL SWIRL
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNER LATE THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE STRONGER LIFT AND DIFLUENCE
ZONE APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ENERGETIC LOBE SWINGING
NORTHEAST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS EVENING...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BECOME DEPLETED AS
EXPECTED WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE. INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE HIGH-BASED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OUT EAST...A DRYLINE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY EDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND COULD LEAD TO
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS HALL-
BRISCOE COUNTY AREA THOUGH WE ARE NOT YET SEEING CUMULUS IN THIS
REGION.

OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THAT NEXT ROUND OF DYNAMIC LIFT...AND
COUPLED WITH IMPROVING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDER MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WESTERN
ZONES. HOW FAR THIS COULD SPREAD EAST IS UNCERTAIN BUT WE HAVE
RETAINED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT FAVORING OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
COULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS BATCH. WE
CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF A MATURE COLD POOL
SPREADING CONVECTION INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALSO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES BUT SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A NOTCH OR TWO STRONGER AND
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BETTER MIXED SO HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION
OUT. AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD DEBRIS
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER SWIRL OFF INTO EASTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY-LINE THAT MAY START OUT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO LINE EARLIER SHOULD SURGE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ZONES WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOLID THUNDER CHANCES ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL AREAS SPREADING INTO EASTERN LATE IN THE
DAY. INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500 AND POSSIBLE 2500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25-50 KNOT RANGE INDICATE A
SOLID POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CASE ANALOGS WITH PAST SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING EVENTS AND HAS LED
TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATE
THURSDAY. WE ALREADY HAVE RAMPED UP WORDING IN PRODUCTS TO INDICATE
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMINGLY WOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WITH LOCAL LENGTHENING OF THE LOWEST HODOGRAPH REGION
AS STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTING OF THE DRY-LINE POSITION WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS RELATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THURSDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A DAY TO KEEP TUNED TO THE SKY AND FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
THE RETREAT IS IN QUESTION AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER ON POSITION.
THE NAM RETREATS THE DRYLINE BACK INTO EASTERN NM WHILE THE ECMWF
ONLY BRINGS THE DRYLINE BACK TO JUST WEST OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. REGARDLESS OF POSITION THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-55 KTS...DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED
LOW LEVEL PROFILES. THE NAME SHOWS A CLOUD DECK AT 700H WHICH COULD
INHIBIT SOME OF THE SEVERITY OF STORMS...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PERSISTENT
MODEL TO SHOW THIS. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW NEARS THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL PUT US IN A DRY SLOT WITH CHANCES OF RECEIVING WRAP
AROUND PRECIP DECREASING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY COOLING TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE...MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROF THAT WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES HELP KEEP PRECIP SUSTAINED THRU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  72  41  67 /  30  40  30  10
TULIA         52  71  47  69 /  30  60  40  30
PLAINVIEW     53  72  48  69 /  30  60  40  30
LEVELLAND     53  75  48  71 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       54  76  50  72 /  30  60  40  20
DENVER CITY   54  74  48  71 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    55  76  50  72 /  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  75  55  74 /  20  60  60  50
SPUR          56  77  54  73 /  20  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     59  78  57  76 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
308
FXUS64 KLUB 151953
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY. SKIP TO
FINAL PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS...LINEAR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD WAS PERCOLATING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR WEST-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW NEAR VERNAL UTAH LATE TODAY WILL SWIRL
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNER LATE THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE STRONGER LIFT AND DIFLUENCE
ZONE APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ENERGETIC LOBE SWINGING
NORTHEAST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS EVENING...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BECOME DEPLETED AS
EXPECTED WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE. INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE HIGH-BASED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OUT EAST...A DRYLINE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY EDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND COULD LEAD TO
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS HALL-
BRISCOE COUNTY AREA THOUGH WE ARE NOT YET SEEING CUMULUS IN THIS
REGION.

OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THAT NEXT ROUND OF DYNAMIC LIFT...AND
COUPLED WITH IMPROVING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDER MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WESTERN
ZONES. HOW FAR THIS COULD SPREAD EAST IS UNCERTAIN BUT WE HAVE
RETAINED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT FAVORING OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
COULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS BATCH. WE
CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF A MATURE COLD POOL
SPREADING CONVECTION INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALSO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES BUT SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A NOTCH OR TWO STRONGER AND
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BETTER MIXED SO HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION
OUT. AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD DEBRIS
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER SWIRL OFF INTO EASTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY-LINE THAT MAY START OUT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO LINE EARLIER SHOULD SURGE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ZONES WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOLID THUNDER CHANCES ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL AREAS SPREADING INTO EASTERN LATE IN THE
DAY. INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500 AND POSSIBLE 2500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25-50 KNOT RANGE INDICATE A
SOLID POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CASE ANALOGS WITH PAST SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING EVENTS AND HAS LED
TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATE
THURSDAY. WE ALREADY HAVE RAMPED UP WORDING IN PRODUCTS TO INDICATE
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMINGLY WOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WITH LOCAL LENGTHENING OF THE LOWEST HODOGRAPH REGION
AS STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTING OF THE DRY-LINE POSITION WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS RELATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THURSDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A DAY TO KEEP TUNED TO THE SKY AND FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
THE RETREAT IS IN QUESTION AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER ON POSITION.
THE NAM RETREATS THE DRYLINE BACK INTO EASTERN NM WHILE THE ECMWF
ONLY BRINGS THE DRYLINE BACK TO JUST WEST OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. REGARDLESS OF POSITION THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-55 KTS...DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED
LOW LEVEL PROFILES. THE NAME SHOWS A CLOUD DECK AT 700H WHICH COULD
INHIBIT SOME OF THE SEVERITY OF STORMS...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PERSISTENT
MODEL TO SHOW THIS. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW NEARS THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL PUT US IN A DRY SLOT WITH CHANCES OF RECEIVING WRAP
AROUND PRECIP DECREASING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY COOLING TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE...MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROF THAT WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES HELP KEEP PRECIP SUSTAINED THRU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  72  41  67 /  30  40  30  10
TULIA         52  71  47  69 /  30  60  40  30
PLAINVIEW     53  72  48  69 /  30  60  40  30
LEVELLAND     53  75  48  71 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       54  76  50  72 /  30  60  40  20
DENVER CITY   54  74  48  71 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    55  76  50  72 /  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  75  55  74 /  20  60  60  50
SPUR          56  77  54  73 /  20  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     59  78  57  76 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
073
FXUS64 KLUB 151738
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE THURSDAY. WEAK
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW LATE TODAY AND
MAY ALLOW A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
MOST LIKELY REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF KLBB BUT COULD ENCROACH UPON
KLBB MAINLY AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. THERE ALSO IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
ISOLATED DRY-LINE THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KCDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO PRECLUDES MENTION IN THIS TAF. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY KCDS BUT DOES NOT LOOK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. EARLY MORNING THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD WANE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A LARGER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES LATER THURSDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
KCDS IS CURRENTLY IFR WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2MI
AND 1MI THE PAST FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOG LIFTING BY
14Z AS TEMPS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND MORNING INVERSION ERODES. KPVW
AND KLBB REMAINED VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10KT- 15KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT THE TERMINALS...STRONGER
UP TO 20KTS SUSTAINED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS
POINT DECIDED TO LEAVE THEM OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
FOUR CORNERS AS ADVERTISED. HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WITH AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SW KS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WE MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND WOULD EXPECT MORE IF NOT FOR SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F-40F. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
DID NOT RECEIVE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS THAT OTHER PARTS OF OUR
CWA DID OVER THE PAST WEEK. GIVEN DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION RESULTING IN LIGHTNING STRIKES A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TODAY ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. DO BELIEVE BEST CHANCES REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
BOTH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BEST SURFACE FORCING.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL LOOKS GOOD TOMORROW THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE UA TROUGH NW OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE SRN PLAINS LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RECENT GFS MODEL RUN LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...ECMWF AND DGEX/ WRT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH
OFF FROM THE PARENT LOW TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA ON
THURSDAY...WHILST DIGGING SSE TO ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
SETS ITS SIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK-
WEEKEND. WITH THE UA LOW BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC...THAT USUALLY
SUGGESTS A SLOW AND AT TIMES WOBBLY MOVEMENT WHICH A FEW SOLUTIONS
DO EXHIBIT. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MORE IN SYNCH IN SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...COURTESY OF
ANOTHER SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH IT TO THE
EAST.

AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AND AID IN INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THERE WILL ALSO BE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT PLAY
TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SRLY SFC WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL
BACK TO THE SE MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN...THUS FILTERING
IN RICH GULF MOISTURE /PWATS INCREASING TO 0.50-1.00 INCH WITH
HIGHEST VALUES NOTED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. ON THE
CAPROCK...S-SW SFC WINDS WILL BE THE RULE DUE TO A DEEPENING NEARBY
SFC TROUGH...THEREBY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT
WILL SHARPEN ON THE CAPROCK. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CURRENT RUNS
HOLDS UP THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AND
RETREATS IT BY THE AFTN AS BREEZY SW SFC WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS ERN NM. THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CI...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE /HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS/...DUE TO A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE COUPLED WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG /WITHIN PROXIMITY
OF THE DRYLINE/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY LOW LCL/S /AOA 5000 FT AGL/
WITHIN THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE MAY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS STRONGER
THAN DEPICTED.

DRY SLOTTING IS BEING SHOWN TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS W-SW SFC WINDS
GETS USHERED IN BY THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA LOW. HOW QUICKLY THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INVADE THE REGION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT...BUT OVERALL BEST POPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UA LOW
DEPARTS. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE AND SFC WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENTLY...AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD INSTIGATE
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UA LOW NEARS THE REGION AND PROMOTE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL /70S ON THURSDAY DROPPING TO 60S AND 70S
FRIDAY-SUNDAY/. NEAR NORM TEMPS WILL ENDURE INTO EARLY NEXT AS WE
COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP.

FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS COINCIDING WITH PEAK 20FT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20KTS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW END FIRE
WX CONDITIONS. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES MISSED OUT ON SOME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHTNING FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  72  42  65 /  40  40  30  20
TULIA         52  71  46  67 /  30  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     53  72  47  67 /  30  40  50  30
LEVELLAND     53  75  46  69 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       54  76  48  70 /  30  40  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  74  47  69 /  30  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  76  48  70 /  30  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  75  56  72 /  30  60  60  40
SPUR          56  77  53  71 /  30  60  60  30
ASPERMONT     59  78  56  74 /  30  60  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
402
FXUS64 KLUB 151211
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
711 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
KCDS IS CURRENTLY IFR WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCUATING BETWEEN 1/2MI
AND 1MI THE PAST FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOG LIFTING BY
14Z AS TEMPS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND MORNING INVERSION ERODES. KPVW
AND KLBB REMAINED VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10KT- 15KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT THE TERMINALS...STRONGER
UP TO 20KTS SUSTAINED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS
POINT DECIDED TO LEAVE THEM OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
FOUR CORNERS AS ADVERTISED. HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WITH AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SW KS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WE MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND WOULD EXPECT MORE IF NOT FOR SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F-40F. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
DID NOT RECEIVE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS THAT OTHER PARTS OF OUR
CWA DID OVER THE PAST WEEK. GIVEN DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION RESULTING IN LIGHTNING STRIKES A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TODAY ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. DO BELIEVE BEST CHANCES REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
BOTH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BEST SURFACE FORCING.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL LOOKS GOOD TOMORROW THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE UA TROUGH NW OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE SRN PLAINS LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RECENT GFS MODEL RUN LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...ECMWF AND DGEX/ WRT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH
OFF FROM THE PARENT LOW TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA ON
THURSDAY...WHILST DIGGING SSE TO ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
SETS ITS SIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK-
WEEKEND. WITH THE UA LOW BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC...THAT USUALLY
SUGGESTS A SLOW AND AT TIMES WOBBLY MOVEMENT WHICH A FEW SOLUTIONS
DO EXHIBIT. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MORE IN SYNCH IN SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...COURTESY OF
ANOTHER SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH IT TO THE
EAST.

AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AND AID IN INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THERE WILL ALSO BE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT PLAY
TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SRLY SFC WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL
BACK TO THE SE MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN...THUS FILTERING
IN RICH GULF MOISTURE /PWATS INCREASING TO 0.50-1.00 INCH WITH
HIGHEST VALUES NOTED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. ON THE
CAPROCK...S-SW SFC WINDS WILL BE THE RULE DUE TO A DEEPENING NEARBY
SFC TROUGH...THEREBY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT
WILL SHARPEN ON THE CAPROCK. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CURRENT RUNS
HOLDS UP THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AND
RETREATS IT BY THE AFTN AS BREEZY SW SFC WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS ERN NM. THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CI...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE /HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS/...DUE TO A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE COUPLED WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG /WITHIN PROXIMITY
OF THE DRYLINE/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY LOW LCL/S /AOA 5000 FT AGL/
WITHIN THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE MAY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS STRONGER
THAN DEPICTED.

DRY SLOTTING IS BEING SHOWN TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS W-SW SFC WINDS
GETS USHERED IN BY THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA LOW. HOW QUICKLY THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INVADE THE REGION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT...BUT OVERALL BEST POPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UA LOW
DEPARTS. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE AND SFC WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENTLY...AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD INSTIGATE
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UA LOW NEARS THE REGION AND PROMOTE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL /70S ON THURSDAY DROPPING TO 60S AND 70S
FRIDAY-SUNDAY/. NEAR NORM TEMPS WILL ENDURE INTO EARLY NEXT AS WE
COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP.

FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS COINCIDING WITH PEAK 20FT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20KTS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW END FIRE
WX CONDITIONS. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES MISSED OUT ON SOME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHTNING FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  47  72  42 /  20  40  40  30
TULIA         78  52  71  46 /  20  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     78  53  72  47 /  20  30  40  50
LEVELLAND     77  53  75  46 /  20  30  40  40
LUBBOCK       78  54  76  48 /  10  30  40  50
DENVER CITY   78  54  74  47 /  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    78  55  76  48 /  10  30  30  40
CHILDRESS     79  56  75  56 /  10  30  60  60
SPUR          79  56  77  53 /  10  30  60  60
ASPERMONT     81  59  78  56 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/55
366
FXUS64 KLUB 150927
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
427 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
FOUR CORNERS AS ADVERTISED. HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WITH AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SW KS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WE MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND WOULD EXPECT MORE IF NOT FOR SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F-40F. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
DID NOT RECEIVE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS THAT OTHER PARTS OF OUR
CWA DID OVER THE PAST WEEK. GIVEN DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION RESULTING IN LIGHTNING STRIKES A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TODAY ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. DO BELIEVE BEST CHANCES REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
BOTH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BEST SURFACE FORCING.

.LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL LOOKS GOOD TOMORROW THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE UA TROUGH NW OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE SRN PLAINS LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RECENT GFS MODEL RUN LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...ECMWF AND DGEX/ WRT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH
OFF FROM THE PARENT LOW TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA ON
THURSDAY...WHILST DIGGING SSE TO ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
SETS ITS SIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK-
WEEKEND. WITH THE UA LOW BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC...THAT USUALLY
SUGGESTS A SLOW AND AT TIMES WOBBLY MOVEMENT WHICH A FEW SOLUTIONS
DO EXHIBIT. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MORE IN SYNCH IN SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...COURTESY OF
ANOTHER SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH IT TO THE
EAST.

AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AND AID IN INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THERE WILL ALSO BE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT PLAY
TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SRLY SFC WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL
BACK TO THE SE MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN...THUS FILTERING
IN RICH GULF MOISTURE /PWATS INCREASING TO 0.50-1.00 INCH WITH
HIGHEST VALUES NOTED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. ON THE
CAPROCK...S-SW SFC WINDS WILL BE THE RULE DUE TO A DEEPENING NEARBY
SFC TROUGH...THEREBY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT
WILL SHARPEN ON THE CAPROCK. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CURRENT RUNS
HOLDS UP THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AND
RETREATS IT BY THE AFTN AS BREEZY SW SFC WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS ERN NM. THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CI...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE /HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS/...DUE TO A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE COUPLED WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG /WITHIN PROXIMITY
OF THE DRYLINE/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY LOW LCL/S /AOA 5000 FT AGL/
WITHIN THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE MAY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS STRONGER
THAN DEPICTED.

DRY SLOTTING IS BEING SHOWN TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS W-SW SFC WINDS
GETS USHERED IN BY THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA LOW. HOW QUICKLY THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INVADE THE REGION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT...BUT OVERALL BEST POPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UA LOW
DEPARTS. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE AND SFC WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENTLY...AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD INSTIGATE
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UA LOW NEARS THE REGION AND PROMOTE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL /70S ON THURSDAY DROPPING TO 60S AND 70S
FRIDAY-SUNDAY/. NEAR NORM TEMPS WILL ENDURE INTO EARLY NEXT AS WE
COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS COINCIDING WITH PEAK 20FT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20KTS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW END FIRE
WX CONDITIONS. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES MISSED OUT ON SOME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHTNING FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  47  72  42 /  20  40  40  30
TULIA         78  52  71  46 /  20  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     78  53  72  47 /  20  30  40  50
LEVELLAND     77  53  75  46 /  20  30  40  40
LUBBOCK       78  54  76  48 /  10  30  40  50
DENVER CITY   78  54  74  47 /  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    78  55  76  48 /  10  30  30  40
CHILDRESS     79  56  75  56 /  10  30  60  60
SPUR          79  56  77  53 /  10  30  60  60
ASPERMONT     81  59  78  56 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/29
717
FXUS64 KLUB 150502 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE APPROACHING CHILDRESS FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN A FEW HOURS. THESE CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP
DOWN INTO IFR RANGE BUT WILL KEEP KCDS MVFR RANGE FOR NOW.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR RANGE AT KCDS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TOMORROW AT KLBB AND KPVW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT KCDS.
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME. LEFT AN INDICATION THAT THIS POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WILL
EVALUATE THROUGH THIS EVENING TO SEE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES FOR KCDS.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING ALOFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS GRADUALLY TAKING
OVER LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
SURGE TOWARDS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS FOLLOWING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. QUESTIONABLE IF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK REMAINING CAP CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
SO SHIFTED THUNDER MENTION TO FAVOR WESTERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WOULD BE MOSTLY HIGH-BASED SO MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG NORTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MORE BACKED WHILE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS RETAIN HIGHEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A FEW AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WE CANT RULE OUT
PERHAPS LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE AREA OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN
THOUGH SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING AT THIS TIME SO ALSO LEAVING MENTION
OUT. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO REMAINING GRIDS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 20
MPH...POSSIBLY 25-30 MPH GUSTS NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. REFRAINING FROM
FIRE WEATHER MENTION GIVEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND
WITH AT LEAST SOME RECENT RAINFALL THIS AREA.

RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WED AS A FRONT PUSHES
TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MEETS THE DRYLINE. BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO FOR THE MOST PART AGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH EACH MODEL
RUN BEING LIKE A BOX OF CHOCOLATES...YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOU/RE
GOING TO GET. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL AID IN LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE
WITH SUPPLYING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A DECENT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
SVR POTENTIAL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ADDITION TO 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ONE POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR TO HAVING SVR STORMS WOULD BE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH CLOUD DECK WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND DECREASE INSTABILITY. ONE THING THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER ON IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
LACKING AT THE SURFACE AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STANDING WATER IN PLAYA LAKES...FROM THE RECENT RAINS WILL ALSO HELP
ADD TO AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
ENCROACHES UPON THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS LOWER AFTER
THURS AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WEST TX WILL GET DRY SLOTTED OR NOT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE POSITION OF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD
DRYSLOT THE REGION THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATER OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THRU BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  76  43  67 /   0  20  30  50
TULIA         42  77  49  67 /   0  20  30  50
PLAINVIEW     44  77  50  69 /   0  20  30  60
LEVELLAND     45  77  52  72 /   0  20  30  40
LUBBOCK       45  79  53  72 /   0  10  30  50
DENVER CITY   45  77  52  74 /   0  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    46  78  53  74 /   0  10  30  40
CHILDRESS     45  79  56  73 /   0  10  30  60
SPUR          45  79  56  74 /   0  10  30  60
ASPERMONT     47  80  58  77 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
697
FXUS64 KLUB 142338 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TOMORROW AT KLBB AND KPVW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT KCDS.
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME. LEFT AN INDICATION THAT THIS POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WILL
EVALUATE THROUGH THIS EVENING TO SEE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES FOR KCDS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING ALOFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS GRADUALLY TAKING
OVER LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
SURGE TOWARDS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS FOLLOWING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. QUESTIONABLE IF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK REMAINING CAP CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
SO SHIFTED THUNDER MENTION TO FAVOR WESTERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WOULD BE MOSTLY HIGH-BASED SO MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG NORTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MORE BACKED WHILE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS RETAIN HIGHEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A FEW AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WE CANT RULE OUT
PERHAPS LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE AREA OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN
THOUGH SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING AT THIS TIME SO ALSO LEAVING MENTION
OUT. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO REMAINING GRIDS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 20
MPH...POSSIBLY 25-30 MPH GUSTS NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. REFRAINING FROM
FIRE WEATHER MENTION GIVEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND
WITH AT LEAST SOME RECENT RAINFALL THIS AREA.

RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WED AS A FRONT PUSHES
TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MEETS THE DRYLINE. BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO FOR THE MOST PART AGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH EACH MODEL
RUN BEING LIKE A BOX OF CHOCOLATES...YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOU/RE
GOING TO GET. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL AID IN LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE
WITH SUPPLYING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A DECENT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
SVR POTENTIAL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ADDITION TO 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ONE POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR TO HAVING SVR STORMS WOULD BE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH CLOUD DECK WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND DECREASE INSTABILITY. ONE THING THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER ON IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
LACKING AT THE SURFACE AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STANDING WATER IN PLAYA LAKES...FROM THE RECENT RAINS WILL ALSO HELP
ADD TO AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
ENCROACHES UPON THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS LOWER AFTER
THURS AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WEST TX WILL GET DRY SLOTTED OR NOT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE POSITION OF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD
DRYSLOT THE REGION THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATER OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THRU BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  76  43  67 /   0  20  30  50
TULIA         42  77  49  67 /   0  20  30  50
PLAINVIEW     44  77  50  69 /   0  20  30  60
LEVELLAND     45  77  52  72 /   0  20  30  40
LUBBOCK       45  79  53  72 /   0  10  30  50
DENVER CITY   45  77  52  74 /   0  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    46  78  53  74 /   0  10  30  40
CHILDRESS     45  79  56  73 /   0  10  30  60
SPUR          45  79  56  74 /   0  10  30  60
ASPERMONT     47  80  58  77 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
854
FXUS64 KLUB 142000
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING ALOFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS GRADUALLY TAKING
OVER LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
SURGE TOWARDS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS FOLLOWING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. QUESTIONABLE IF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK REMAINING CAP CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
SO SHIFTED THUNDER MENTION TO FAVOR WESTERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WOULD BE MOSTLY HIGH-BASED SO MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG NORTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MORE BACKED WHILE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS RETAIN HIGHEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A FEW AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WE CANT RULE OUT
PERHAPS LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE AREA OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN
THOUGH SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING AT THIS TIME SO ALSO LEAVING MENTION
OUT. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO REMAINING GRIDS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 20
MPH...POSSIBLY 25-30 MPH GUSTS NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. REFRAINING FROM
FIRE WEATHER MENTION GIVEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND
WITH AT LEAST SOME RECENT RAINFALL THIS AREA.

RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WED AS A FRONT PUSHES
TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MEETS THE DRYLINE. BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO FOR THE MOST PART AGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH EACH MODEL
RUN BEING LIKE A BOX OF CHOCOLATES...YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOU/RE
GOING TO GET. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL AID IN LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE
WITH SUPPLYING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A DECENT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
SVR POTENTIAL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ADDITION TO 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ONE POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR TO HAVING SVR STORMS WOULD BE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH CLOUD DECK WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND DECREASE INSTABILITY. ONE THING THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER ON IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
LACKING AT THE SURFACE AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STANDING WATER IN PLAYA LAKES...FROM THE RECENT RAINS WILL ALSO HELP
ADD TO AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
ENCROACHES UPON THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS LOWER AFTER
THURS AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WEST TX WILL GET DRY SLOTTED OR NOT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE POSITION OF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD
DRYSLOT THE REGION THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATER OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THRU BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  76  43  67 /   0  20  30  50
TULIA         42  77  49  67 /   0  20  30  50
PLAINVIEW     44  77  50  69 /   0  20  30  60
LEVELLAND     45  77  52  72 /   0  20  30  40
LUBBOCK       45  79  53  72 /   0  10  30  50
DENVER CITY   45  77  52  74 /   0  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    46  78  53  74 /   0  10  30  40
CHILDRESS     45  79  56  73 /   0  10  30  60
SPUR          45  79  56  74 /   0  10  30  60
ASPERMONT     47  80  58  77 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
220
FXUS64 KLUB 141750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...MOVING EAST. AIRMASS STABILIZING ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERHAPS A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD WILL BUILD
UP MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDS-KLBB THIS AFTERNOON. LATE
TONIGHT STILL SEEING SIGNS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND PERHAPS PATCHY
STRATUS NEAR KCDS...LESS SIGNAL SOUTHWEST OF KLBB WHERE THE BULK
OF THE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. WE ADDED A MINIMAL MENTION OF
FOG FOR KCDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS MANAGED TO DEVELOP AND NOW EXTEND ABOUT 30-60 MILES WEST
OF KPVW AND KLBB. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER NW TEXAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA PER WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY. A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN PERSISTS ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP PROBABLY
HANGING ON ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO AT LEAST MID-MORNING. THE
AFTN SHOULD THEN BE PRECIP-FREE AS THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER NRN
OKLAHOMA BY 18Z. ABUNDANT MID CLOUD KEEPING STRATUS AND FOG AT BAY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ALREADY WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF ERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLE WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR
FOG BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DRY ADVECTION INTO THE NWRN FCST AREA TO KEEP THOSE CONCERNS AT BAY.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES TO WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER THE MOIST GROUND THIS
AFTN WITH DIURNAL WARMING. TEMPS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT NEAR MOS
VALUES LOOK FINE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
AFTER THE UA LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY...A BRIEF
BREAK FROM PRECIP IS STILL PROGGED TO OCCUR THUS AFTN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD.
ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OFF WHILST NEARING THE FOUR- CORNERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. DURING WHICH TIME A FEW THINGS WILL BE HAPPENING:
AN EWRD MOVING SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SERN CO WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW WINDS. A DIFFUSED DRYLINE WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE FA /SETTLING AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT/...WITH A
TIGHTER/BETTER CONVERGENT SIGNAL NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THUS IT COULD PERHAPS SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTN AS EXHIBITED PER THE BULLISH
NAM. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP DURING THE AFTN HOURS
LIKELY BECAUSE MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE /PWATS
AOA 0.50 INCHES/ AND AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DRYLINE IS NOT
VERY SHARP ACROSS THE CWA. NONETHELESS...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL INSERT BARELY MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR LOCALES MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING- NIGHT...PWATS IMPROVE TO 0.90 INCHES AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE SOLUTIONS /INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES TTU WRF/ SHOW CI OCCURRING
MORE SO DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME. FURTHERMORE...MUCAPE
VALUES INCREASING TO 600 J/KG OR SO COUPLED WITH VEERING VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES /WITH SW WINDS ALOFT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING- NIGHT/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 25-35
KTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WRT TO THE BEHAVIOR OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW...AS IT IS SHOWN TO STILL BE CONNECTED TO THE
PARENT TROUGH TRANSLATING EWRD ACROSS SRN CANADA A LOT LONGER
THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS...HENCE DEPICTING A MORE DAMPENED AND
SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVING UA LOW NEARING THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...EMCWF AND DGEX/ EXHIBITS A
MORE CONCENTRIC UA LOW THAT GETS PINCHED OFF FROM THE PARENT
TROUGH...AND SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY WEEKEND.
NONETHELESS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS VALID.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPINGE THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES BY
THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...SW FLOW ALOFT...MUCAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK
INCREASES FURTHER HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THEREAFTER...PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT GIVEN THE ONSET OF DRYSLOTTING. THE
UA LOW WILL GET SWEPT UP ANOTHER FAST MOVING UA TROUGH DIVING SE
FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BUT LACK OF UL SUPPORT
WILL LEAD TO NIL POPS. DRY NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION /70S AND
80S ON WEDNESDAY FALLING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/. WE WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  75  45  64 /   0  10  30  40
TULIA         43  76  49  66 /   0  20  30  50
PLAINVIEW     44  75  50  68 /   0  20  30  60
LEVELLAND     46  77  52  70 /   0  20  30  40
LUBBOCK       45  77  53  72 /   0  20  30  50
DENVER CITY   46  77  52  72 /   0  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    47  77  53  73 /   0  20  30  40
CHILDRESS     45  78  56  72 /   0  10  30  60
SPUR          46  78  56  74 /   0  10  40  60
ASPERMONT     47  80  58  78 /   0  10  40  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
925
FXUS64 KLUB 141129
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS MANAGED TO DEVELOP AND NOW EXTEND ABOUT 30-60 MILES WEST
OF KPVW AND KLBB. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER NW TEXAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA PER WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY. A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN PERSISTS ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP PROBABLY
HANGING ON ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO AT LEAST MID-MORNING. THE
AFTN SHOULD THEN BE PRECIP-FREE AS THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER NRN
OKLAHOMA BY 18Z. ABUNDANT MID CLOUD KEEPING STRATUS AND FOG AT BAY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ALREADY WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF ERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLE WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR
FOG BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DRY ADVECTION INTO THE NWRN FCST AREA TO KEEP THOSE CONCERNS AT BAY.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES TO WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER THE MOIST GROUND THIS
AFTN WITH DIURNAL WARMING. TEMPS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT NEAR MOS
VALUES LOOK FINE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
AFTER THE UA LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY...A BRIEF
BREAK FROM PRECIP IS STILL PROGGED TO OCCUR THUS AFTN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD.
ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OFF WHILST NEARING THE FOUR- CORNERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. DURING WHICH TIME A FEW THINGS WILL BE HAPPENING:
AN EWRD MOVING SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SERN CO WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW WINDS. A DIFFUSED DRYLINE WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE FA /SETTLING AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT/...WITH A
TIGHTER/BETTER CONVERGENT SIGNAL NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THUS IT COULD PERHAPS SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTN AS EXHIBITED PER THE BULLISH
NAM. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP DURING THE AFTN HOURS
LIKELY BECAUSE MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE /PWATS
AOA 0.50 INCHES/ AND AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DRYLINE IS NOT
VERY SHARP ACROSS THE CWA. NONETHELESS...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL INSERT BARELY MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR LOCALES MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING- NIGHT...PWATS IMPROVE TO 0.90 INCHES AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE SOLUTIONS /INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES TTU WRF/ SHOW CI OCCURRING
MORE SO DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME. FURTHERMORE...MUCAPE
VALUES INCREASING TO 600 J/KG OR SO COUPLED WITH VEERING VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES /WITH SW WINDS ALOFT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING- NIGHT/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 25-35
KTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WRT TO THE BEHAVIOR OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW...AS IT IS SHOWN TO STILL BE CONNECTED TO THE
PARENT TROUGH TRANSLATING EWRD ACROSS SRN CANADA A LOT LONGER
THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS...HENCE DEPICTING A MORE DAMPENED AND
SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVING UA LOW NEARING THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...EMCWF AND DGEX/ EXHIBITS A
MORE CONCENTRIC UA LOW THAT GETS PINCHED OFF FROM THE PARENT
TROUGH...AND SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY WEEKEND.
NONETHELESS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS VALID.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPINGE THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES BY
THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...SW FLOW ALOFT...MUCAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK
INCREASES FURTHER HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THEREAFTER...PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT GIVEN THE ONSET OF DRYSLOTTING. THE
UA LOW WILL GET SWEPT UP ANOTHER FAST MOVING UA TROUGH DIVING SE
FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BUT LACK OF UL SUPPORT
WILL LEAD TO NIL POPS. DRY NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION /70S AND
80S ON WEDNESDAY FALLING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/. WE WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  44  75  45 /   0   0  10  30
TULIA         63  43  76  49 /  10   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  44  75  50 /  10   0  20  30
LEVELLAND     64  46  77  52 /  10   0  20  30
LUBBOCK       64  45  77  53 /  10   0  20  30
DENVER CITY   64  46  77  52 /   0   0  20  30
BROWNFIELD    64  47  77  53 /  10   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     61  45  78  56 /  30   0  10  30
SPUR          62  46  78  56 /  20   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  47  80  58 /  20   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07
546
FXUS64 KLUB 140813
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER NW TEXAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA PER WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY. A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN PERSISTS ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP PROBABLY
HANGING ON ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO AT LEAST MID-MORNING. THE
AFTN SHOULD THEN BE PRECIP-FREE AS THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER NRN
OKLAHOMA BY 18Z. ABUNDANT MID CLOUD KEEPING STRATUS AND FOG AT BAY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ALREADY WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF ERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLE WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR
FOG BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DRY ADVECTION INTO THE NWRN FCST AREA TO KEEP THOSE CONCERNS AT BAY.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES TO WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER THE MOIST GROUND THIS
AFTN WITH DIURNAL WARMING. TEMPS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT NEAR MOS
VALUES LOOK FINE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE UA LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY...A BRIEF
BREAK FROM PRECIP IS STILL PROGGED TO OCCUR THUS AFTN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD.
ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OFF WHILST NEARING THE FOUR- CORNERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. DURING WHICH TIME A FEW THINGS WILL BE HAPPENING:
AN EWRD MOVING SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SERN CO WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW WINDS. A DIFFUSED DRYLINE WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE FA /SETTLING AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT/...WITH A
TIGHTER/BETTER CONVERGENT SIGNAL NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THUS IT COULD PERHAPS SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTN AS EXHIBITED PER THE BULLISH
NAM. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP DURING THE AFTN HOURS
LIKELY BECAUSE MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE /PWATS
AOA 0.50 INCHES/ AND AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DRYLINE IS NOT
VERY SHARP ACROSS THE CWA. NONETHELESS...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL INSERT BARELY MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR LOCALES MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING- NIGHT...PWATS IMPROVE TO 0.90 INCHES AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE SOLUTIONS /INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES TTU WRF/ SHOW CI OCCURRING
MORE SO DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME. FURTHERMORE...MUCAPE
VALUES INCREASING TO 600 J/KG OR SO COUPLED WITH VEERING VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES /WITH SW WINDS ALOFT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING- NIGHT/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 25-35
KTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WRT TO THE BEHAVIOR OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW...AS IT IS SHOWN TO STILL BE CONNECTED TO THE
PARENT TROUGH TRANSLATING EWRD ACROSS SRN CANADA A LOT LONGER
THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS...HENCE DEPICTING A MORE DAMPENED AND
SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVING UA LOW NEARING THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...EMCWF AND DGEX/ EXHIBITS A
MORE CONCENTRIC UA LOW THAT GETS PINCHED OFF FROM THE PARENT
TROUGH...AND SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY WEEKEND.
NONETHELESS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS VALID.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPINGE THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES BY
THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...SW FLOW ALOFT...MUCAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK
INCREASES FURTHER HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THEREAFTER...PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT GIVEN THE ONSET OF DRYSLOTTING. THE
UA LOW WILL GET SWEPT UP ANOTHER FAST MOVING UA TROUGH DIVING SE
FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BUT LACK OF UL SUPPORT
WILL LEAD TO NIL POPS. DRY NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION /70S AND
80S ON WEDNESDAY FALLING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/. WE WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  44  75  45 /   0   0  10  30
TULIA         63  43  76  49 /  10   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  44  75  50 /  10   0  20  30
LEVELLAND     64  46  77  52 /  10   0  20  30
LUBBOCK       64  45  77  53 /  10   0  20  30
DENVER CITY   64  46  77  52 /   0   0  20  30
BROWNFIELD    64  47  77  53 /  10   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     61  45  78  56 /  30   0  10  30
SPUR          62  46  78  56 /  20   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  47  80  58 /  20   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
608
FXUS64 KLUB 140445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD LESS RISK OF WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE TAFS TO INDICATE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS...MAINLY AT KCDS. -SHRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KCDS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WHILE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHRINKING.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING TREND. WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ROTATE SWWD FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE UNLIKELY TO
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT IN ANY AREAS OF CLEARING PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CEILINGS TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF...BUT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY AS WELL...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SURFACE VISIBILITIES
UNDER 3 OR 4 MILES. PERIODS OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 03 UTC...WITH CHANCES DECREASING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DELAYED
A FEW HOURS AT KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN...AND LOTS OF IT IN SOME CASES...CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA.  AMPLE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW WHICH IS BEING CONVERTED TO RAINFALL RATES AVERAGING AROUND
ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY
CORES.  THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN WE SAW THIS MORNING WHERE RAINFALL
RATES WERE APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AT TIMES BUT SHOULD STILL PROVIDE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS THAT NEED THE PRECIPITATION.

A CURSORY GLANCE AT THE 20Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  MODELS CONTINUE CARRY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A TROWAL
 REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
WHILE SLOWLY COOLING WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TRANSITIONING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WEATHER GRIDS UNTIL THE CORE OF
THE LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...EVEN THOUGH WE
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THANKS TO THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL DAY AS CLOUD COVER IS SLOW TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AND PRECIPITATION LEAVES BEHIND AT LEAST SOME SURFACE
MOISTURE TO EVAPORATE.  AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION
OR EXIT THE ROLLING PLAINS BY AROUND 18Z.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE LATE TUE-EARLY
WEDNESDAY UNDER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE BEFORE ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REGION. MODEL AMBIGUITY REGARDING THIS LOW/S
BEHAVIOR IS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR...SO CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS IMPROVING. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT OF A
LAGGARD IN THAT IT PHASES MORE OF THIS PINCHED LOW WITH ITS PARENT
TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED/DAMPENED
LOW VERSUS THE MORE CONCENTRIC/DEEPER CYCLONE ON REMAINING
MODELS. EITHER PROJECTION BODES WELL FOR BOOSTING POPS BEGINNING
WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CHANCES STEADILY LOWER
ON FRI PROVIDED THE UPPER LOW BEGINS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SLOTTING.

AS SOON AS WED AFTN...OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY ALREADY BE
CONTENDING WITH TSTORMS NEAR A DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH WITH WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...BUT HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND BACKGROUND ASCENT SHOULD UNFOLD WED EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL TUG RICHER
GULF MOISTURE W-NW AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A RESPECTABLE
DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL 700MB
COMPONENT TO WINDS DURING THE DAY...WE WOULD EXPECT A MORE
WESTERLY DRYLINE LOCATION IN THIS SETUP...PERHAPS VERY CLOSE TO
THE NM BORDER. VARIOUS VORT LOBES ROTATING N-NE AROUND THE DEEP
CYCLONE IN THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ROUNDS OF AFTN/EVNG CONVECTION. EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...TEMPS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIZABLE
CAPES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS
PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS ANOTHER SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY BE
IN THE OFFING.

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...THE TROUGH PHASING ISSUE OF THE GFS ENDS UP
DELIVERING A CANADIAN FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS SOON AS THU
AFTN...BUT WE ARE DISMISSING THIS ATTM IN FAVOR OF THE ECM WHICH
DELAYS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW UNTIL LATE FRI/SAT. AS A RESULT...
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR REASONABLE ON FRI GIVEN THE UPPER
LOW STILL HOLDING OVER NEW MEXICO. THE FASTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS
LOW PER THE GFS IS NOT FAVORED BY US OR WPC GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR
THESE CUTOFF LOWS TO LOITER LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...ALTHOUGH IF
THE EASTWARD CRAWL OF THE DGEX IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
EXTEND AS LATE AS SUNDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT OUR STOCK IN THE ECM
WHICH EVENTUALLY PHASES THE LOW WITH A NEW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND AND DRIES US OUT BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS
LATTER TROUGH HAS THE LOOKS OF SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR OUR WAY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS FAVOR ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF COOL
AIR AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY JOGS EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  43  75 /  30  20   0  10
TULIA         43  59  42  75 /  40  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     43  59  43  75 /  50  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     43  61  45  77 /  50  20   0  10
LUBBOCK       44  60  45  78 /  50  20   0  10
DENVER CITY   44  62  45  78 /  70  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    45  62  46  79 /  70  20   0  10
CHILDRESS     49  58  45  79 /  50  40  10  10
SPUR          47  59  45  79 /  60  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     49  60  48  81 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
214
FXUS64 KLUB 140254 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
954 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WHILE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHRINKING.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING TREND. WE
MAY SEE ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ROTATE SWWD FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE UNLIKELY TO
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT IN ANY AREAS OF CLEARING PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CEILINGS TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF...BUT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY AS WELL...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SURFACE VISIBILITIES
UNDER 3 OR 4 MILES. PERIODS OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 03 UTC...WITH CHANCES DECREASING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DELAYED
A FEW HOURS AT KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN...AND LOTS OF IT IN SOME CASES...CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA.  AMPLE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW WHICH IS BEING CONVERTED TO RAINFALL RATES AVERAGING AROUND
ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY
CORES.  THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN WE SAW THIS MORNING WHERE RAINFALL
RATES WERE APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AT TIMES BUT SHOULD STILL PROVIDE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS THAT NEED THE PRECIPITATION.

A CURSORY GLANCE AT THE 20Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  MODELS CONTINUE CARRY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A TROWAL
 REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
WHILE SLOWLY COOLING WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TRANSITIONING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WEATHER GRIDS UNTIL THE CORE OF
THE LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...EVEN THOUGH WE
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THANKS TO THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL DAY AS CLOUD COVER IS SLOW TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AND PRECIPITATION LEAVES BEHIND AT LEAST SOME SURFACE
MOISTURE TO EVAPORATE.  AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION
OR EXIT THE ROLLING PLAINS BY AROUND 18Z.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE LATE TUE-EARLY
WEDNESDAY UNDER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE BEFORE ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REGION. MODEL AMBIGUITY REGARDING THIS LOW/S
BEHAVIOR IS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR...SO CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS IMPROVING. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT OF A
LAGGARD IN THAT IT PHASES MORE OF THIS PINCHED LOW WITH ITS PARENT
TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED/DAMPENED
LOW VERSUS THE MORE CONCENTRIC/DEEPER CYCLONE ON REMAINING
MODELS. EITHER PROJECTION BODES WELL FOR BOOSTING POPS BEGINNING
WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CHANCES STEADILY LOWER
ON FRI PROVIDED THE UPPER LOW BEGINS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SLOTTING.

AS SOON AS WED AFTN...OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY ALREADY BE
CONTENDING WITH TSTORMS NEAR A DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH WITH WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...BUT HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND BACKGROUND ASCENT SHOULD UNFOLD WED EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL TUG RICHER
GULF MOISTURE W-NW AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A RESPECTABLE
DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL 700MB
COMPONENT TO WINDS DURING THE DAY...WE WOULD EXPECT A MORE
WESTERLY DRYLINE LOCATION IN THIS SETUP...PERHAPS VERY CLOSE TO
THE NM BORDER. VARIOUS VORT LOBES ROTATING N-NE AROUND THE DEEP
CYCLONE IN THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ROUNDS OF AFTN/EVNG CONVECTION. EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...TEMPS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIZABLE
CAPES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS
PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS ANOTHER SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY BE
IN THE OFFING.

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...THE TROUGH PHASING ISSUE OF THE GFS ENDS UP
DELIVERING A CANADIAN FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS SOON AS THU
AFTN...BUT WE ARE DISMISSING THIS ATTM IN FAVOR OF THE ECM WHICH
DELAYS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW UNTIL LATE FRI/SAT. AS A RESULT...
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR REASONABLE ON FRI GIVEN THE UPPER
LOW STILL HOLDING OVER NEW MEXICO. THE FASTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS
LOW PER THE GFS IS NOT FAVORED BY US OR WPC GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR
THESE CUTOFF LOWS TO LOITER LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...ALTHOUGH IF
THE EASTWARD CRAWL OF THE DGEX IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
EXTEND AS LATE AS SUNDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT OUR STOCK IN THE ECM
WHICH EVENTUALLY PHASES THE LOW WITH A NEW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND AND DRIES US OUT BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS
LATTER TROUGH HAS THE LOOKS OF SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR OUR WAY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS FAVOR ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF COOL
AIR AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY JOGS EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  43  75 /  30  20   0  10
TULIA         43  59  42  75 /  40  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     43  59  43  75 /  50  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     43  61  45  77 /  50  20   0  10
LUBBOCK       44  60  45  78 /  50  20   0  10
DENVER CITY   44  62  45  78 /  70  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    45  62  46  79 /  70  20   0  10
CHILDRESS     49  58  45  79 /  50  40  10  10
SPUR          47  59  45  79 /  60  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     49  60  48  81 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/31
617
FXUS64 KLUB 140000
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
700 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CEILINGS TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF...BUT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY AS WELL...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP SURFACE VISIBILITIES
UNDER 3 OR 4 MILES. PERIODS OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 03 UTC...WITH CHANCES DECREASING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS DELAYED
A FEW HOURS AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN...AND LOTS OF IT IN SOME CASES...CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA.  AMPLE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW WHICH IS BEING CONVERTED TO RAINFALL RATES AVERAGING AROUND
ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY
CORES.  THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN WE SAW THIS MORNING WHERE RAINFALL
RATES WERE APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AT TIMES BUT SHOULD STILL PROVIDE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS THAT NEED THE PRECIPITATION.

A CURSORY GLANCE AT THE 20Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  MODELS CONTINUE CARRY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A TROWAL
 REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
WHILE SLOWLY COOLING WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TRANSITIONING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WEATHER GRIDS UNTIL THE CORE OF
THE LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...EVEN THOUGH WE
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THANKS TO THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL DAY AS CLOUD COVER IS SLOW TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AND PRECIPITATION LEAVES BEHIND AT LEAST SOME SURFACE
MOISTURE TO EVAPORATE.  AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION
OR EXIT THE ROLLING PLAINS BY AROUND 18Z.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE LATE TUE-EARLY
WEDNESDAY UNDER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE BEFORE ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REGION. MODEL AMBIGUITY REGARDING THIS LOW/S
BEHAVIOR IS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR...SO CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS IMPROVING. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT OF A
LAGGARD IN THAT IT PHASES MORE OF THIS PINCHED LOW WITH ITS PARENT
TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED/DAMPENED
LOW VERSUS THE MORE CONCENTRIC/DEEPER CYCLONE ON REMAINING
MODELS. EITHER PROJECTION BODES WELL FOR BOOSTING POPS BEGINNING
WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CHANCES STEADILY LOWER
ON FRI PROVIDED THE UPPER LOW BEGINS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SLOTTING.

AS SOON AS WED AFTN...OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY ALREADY BE
CONTENDING WITH TSTORMS NEAR A DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH WITH WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...BUT HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND BACKGROUND ASCENT SHOULD UNFOLD WED EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL TUG RICHER
GULF MOISTURE W-NW AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A RESPECTABLE
DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL 700MB
COMPONENT TO WINDS DURING THE DAY...WE WOULD EXPECT A MORE
WESTERLY DRYLINE LOCATION IN THIS SETUP...PERHAPS VERY CLOSE TO
THE NM BORDER. VARIOUS VORT LOBES ROTATING N-NE AROUND THE DEEP
CYCLONE IN THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ROUNDS OF AFTN/EVNG CONVECTION. EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...TEMPS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIZABLE
CAPES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS
PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS ANOTHER SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY BE
IN THE OFFING.

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...THE TROUGH PHASING ISSUE OF THE GFS ENDS UP
DELIVERING A CANADIAN FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS SOON AS THU
AFTN...BUT WE ARE DISMISSING THIS ATTM IN FAVOR OF THE ECM WHICH
DELAYS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW UNTIL LATE FRI/SAT. AS A RESULT...
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR REASONABLE ON FRI GIVEN THE UPPER
LOW STILL HOLDING OVER NEW MEXICO. THE FASTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS
LOW PER THE GFS IS NOT FAVORED BY US OR WPC GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR
THESE CUTOFF LOWS TO LOITER LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...ALTHOUGH IF
THE EASTWARD CRAWL OF THE DGEX IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
EXTEND AS LATE AS SUNDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT OUR STOCK IN THE ECM
WHICH EVENTUALLY PHASES THE LOW WITH A NEW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND AND DRIES US OUT BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS
LATTER TROUGH HAS THE LOOKS OF SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR OUR WAY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS FAVOR ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF COOL
AIR AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY JOGS EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  43  75 /  30  20   0  10
TULIA         43  59  42  75 /  40  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     43  59  43  75 /  50  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     43  61  45  77 /  50  20   0  10
LUBBOCK       44  60  45  78 /  50  20   0  10
DENVER CITY   44  62  45  78 /  70  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    45  62  46  79 /  60  20   0  10
CHILDRESS     49  58  45  79 /  50  40  10  10
SPUR          47  59  45  79 /  60  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     49  60  48  81 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
933
FXUS64 KLUB 132012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...
RAIN...AND LOTS OF IT IN SOME CASES...CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA.  AMPLE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW WHICH IS BEING CONVERTED TO RAINFALL RATES AVERAGING AROUND
ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY
CORES.  THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN WE SAW THIS MORNING WHERE RAINFALL
RATES WERE APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AT TIMES BUT SHOULD STILL PROVIDE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS THAT NEED THE PRECIPITATION.

A CURSORY GLANCE AT THE 20Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  MODELS CONTINUE CARRY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A TROWAL
 REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
WHILE SLOWLY COOLING WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TRANSITIONING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WEATHER GRIDS UNTIL THE CORE OF
THE LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...EVEN THOUGH WE
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THANKS TO THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL DAY AS CLOUD COVER IS SLOW TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AND PRECIPITATION LEAVES BEHIND AT LEAST SOME SURFACE
MOISTURE TO EVAPORATE.  AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION
OR EXIT THE ROLLING PLAINS BY AROUND 18Z.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE LATE TUE-EARLY
WEDNESDAY UNDER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE BEFORE ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REGION. MODEL AMBIGUITY REGARDING THIS LOW/S
BEHAVIOR IS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR...SO CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS IMPROVING. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT OF A
LAGGARD IN THAT IT PHASES MORE OF THIS PINCHED LOW WITH ITS PARENT
TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED/DAMPENED
LOW VERSUS THE MORE CONCENTRIC/DEEPER CYCLONE ON REMAINING
MODELS. EITHER PROJECTION BODES WELL FOR BOOSTING POPS BEGINNING
WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CHANCES STEADILY LOWER
ON FRI PROVIDED THE UPPER LOW BEGINS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY SLOTTING.

AS SOON AS WED AFTN...OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY ALREADY BE
CONTENDING WITH TSTORMS NEAR A DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH WITH WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...BUT HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND BACKGROUND ASCENT SHOULD UNFOLD WED EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL TUG RICHER
GULF MOISTURE W-NW AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A RESPECTABLE
DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL 700MB
COMPONENT TO WINDS DURING THE DAY...WE WOULD EXPECT A MORE
WESTERLY DRYLINE LOCATION IN THIS SETUP...PERHAPS VERY CLOSE TO
THE NM BORDER. VARIOUS VORT LOBES ROTATING N-NE AROUND THE DEEP
CYCLONE IN THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ROUNDS OF AFTN/EVNG CONVECTION. EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...TEMPS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIZABLE
CAPES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS
PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS ANOTHER SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY BE
IN THE OFFING.

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...THE TROUGH PHASING ISSUE OF THE GFS ENDS UP
DELIVERING A CANADIAN FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS SOON AS THU
AFTN...BUT WE ARE DISMISSING THIS ATTM IN FAVOR OF THE ECM WHICH
DELAYS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW UNTIL LATE FRI/SAT. AS A RESULT...
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR REASONABLE ON FRI GIVEN THE UPPER
LOW STILL HOLDING OVER NEW MEXICO. THE FASTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THIS
LOW PER THE GFS IS NOT FAVORED BY US OR WPC GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR
THESE CUTOFF LOWS TO LOITER LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...ALTHOUGH IF
THE EASTWARD CRAWL OF THE DGEX IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
EXTEND AS LATE AS SUNDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT OUR STOCK IN THE ECM
WHICH EVENTUALLY PHASES THE LOW WITH A NEW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND AND DRIES US OUT BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS
LATTER TROUGH HAS THE LOOKS OF SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR OUR WAY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS FAVOR ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF COOL
AIR AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY JOGS EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93
558
FXUS64 KLUB 131810 AAC
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
110 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AS COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. TRANSITION TO PREVAILING MVFR TO VFR
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG RAIN/FOG
AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FINALLY BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION COME TO AN END AND
IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR CEILINGS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS AND GOES IMAGERY LOOPS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PRETTY MUCH PARKED JUST WEST OF MIDLAND/ODESSA AS OF
11 AM THIS MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH IS REINFORCING A MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. 10 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT WAS SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH AND WAS LOCATED ALONG A SEMINOLE...SWEETWATER...TO
DFW METROPLEX LINE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION DRAGGING 50-60 KT WINDS
2-3000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DOWN TO THE SURFACE SO EXPECT TO
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS NOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE THANKS TO THE STRONG SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 10KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL BUT
FEEL THAT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LASTLY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR TRAINING OF CELLS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF PRECIPITATION OVER 2 INCHES. ALREADY
SEEING ON RADAR SOME INDICATIONS OF THIS ACROSS YOAKUM AND TERRY
COUNTIES. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURING IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. EXPECT TO SEE
GENERALLY ONE HALF TO ONE INCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND WEST TOWARDS MIDLAND.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL THREE TAF SITE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN THIS WAY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KLBB AND KPVW...BUT LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AT
KCDS. CLOUD DECKS WILL HOWEVER DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR BY
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CURRENT VIS HAS BEEN VFR AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...THOUGH INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR FOG HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN THE
LAST 8 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN BE THE CASE
GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF -RA/-TSRA AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE CLOSED UA LOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN INTENTLY WATCHING FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SUN COUNTRY PER 07Z SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SATELLITE CHANNEL ALSO SHOWS THE RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE IT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT IS PRESENT...THUS SHOWN IN THE
WAY OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN-HALF OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING /WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH/...WHICH WILL AID ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEING LIFTED FURTHER AND THUS GENERATE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ONLY SLIGHT
MITIGATING FACTOR MAY BE THE DRY SLOT WHICH CAN EASILY BE SEEN VIA
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS IT INVADES THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE FROPA...MOIST CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY
COUNTERACT IT /MODEL SOLUTIONS CERTAINLY AGREE WITH THIS THINKING/.
INTERMITTENT FOGGY CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THE PAST 8 HRS OR SO...AND THIS NUISANCE WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST AS LONG AS THE PRECIP ENDURES.

THUS FAR...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN WITHIN
ONE HOUR WAS AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...PER TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES. AS SUCH...IMMEDIATE FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE
BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BECOMES COVERED WITH WATER. HENCE...USE CAUTION WHEN
APPROACHING WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. LAPSE RATES ARE SHOWN TO STEEPEN BY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH NOT AS STEEP AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY...AND MUCAPE OF AOA 500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT AGAIN
NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WHAT RAISES EYEBROWS IS THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THERE. CAN THEREFORE NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE...WITH QUARTER-
SIZED HAIL AND 58 MPH WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT AND THUS THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILST THE UA DISTURBANCE
OPENS UP TO AN UA TROUGH WHILE PROGRESSING OVERHEAD. AS
SUCH...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH
THE COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE ON THE DECLINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...GIVEN
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
/HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVING SWD THROUGH THE
4-CORNERS TO NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING PRETTY
CONTINUITY THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IN LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY TO STRETCH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING AT LEAST THAT FAR INTO THE FCST. TEMPS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH FAIRLY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
MODEL/OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS A GOOD PLACE TO REMAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  42  60  41 /  90  40  10  10
TULIA         55  44  61  43 /  90  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     55  44  61  44 /  90  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     58  44  62  45 / 100  60  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  44  62  46 /  90  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   60  46  63  45 / 100  50  10   0
BROWNFIELD    61  46  63  47 / 100  60  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  48  64  46 /  80  60  30  10
SPUR          64  47  63  47 /  90  60  30  10
ASPERMONT     69  51  65  48 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
031
FXUS64 KLUB 131619 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1119 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS AND GOES IMAGERY LOOPS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PRETTY MUCH PARKED JUST WEST OF MIDLAND/ODESSA AS OF
11 AM THIS MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH IS REINFORCING A MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. 10 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT WAS SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH AND WAS LOCATED ALONG A SEMINOLE...SWEETWATER...TO
DFW METROPLEX LINE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION DRAGGING 50-60 KT WINDS
2-3000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DOWN TO THE SURFACE SO EXPECT TO
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS NOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE THANKS TO THE STRONG SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 10KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL BUT
FEEL THAT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LASTLY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR TRAINING OF CELLS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF PRECIPITATION OVER 2 INCHES. ALREADY
SEEING ON RADAR SOME INDICATIONS OF THIS ACROSS YOAKUM AND TERRY
COUNTIES. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURING IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. EXPECT TO SEE
GENERALLY ONE HALF TO ONE INCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND WEST TOWARDS MIDLAND.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL THREE TAF SITE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN THIS WAY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KLBB AND KPVW...BUT LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AT
KCDS. CLOUD DECKS WILL HOWEVER DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR BY
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CURRENT VIS HAS BEEN VFR AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...THOUGH INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR FOG HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN THE
LAST 8 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN BE THE CASE
GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF -RA/-TSRA AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE CLOSED UA LOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN INTENTLY WATCHING FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SUN COUNTRY PER 07Z SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SATELLITE CHANNEL ALSO SHOWS THE RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE IT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT IS PRESENT...THUS SHOWN IN THE
WAY OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN-HALF OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING /WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH/...WHICH WILL AID ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEING LIFTED FURTHER AND THUS GENERATE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ONLY SLIGHT
MITIGATING FACTOR MAY BE THE DRY SLOT WHICH CAN EASILY BE SEEN VIA
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS IT INVADES THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE FROPA...MOIST CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY
COUNTERACT IT /MODEL SOLUTIONS CERTAINLY AGREE WITH THIS THINKING/.
INTERMITTENT FOGGY CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THE PAST 8 HRS OR SO...AND THIS NUISANCE WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST AS LONG AS THE PRECIP ENDURES.

THUS FAR...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN WITHIN
ONE HOUR WAS AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...PER TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES. AS SUCH...IMMEDIATE FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE
BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BECOMES COVERED WITH WATER. HENCE...USE CAUTION WHEN
APPROACHING WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. LAPSE RATES ARE SHOWN TO STEEPEN BY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH NOT AS STEEP AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY...AND MUCAPE OF AOA 500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT AGAIN
NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WHAT RAISES EYEBROWS IS THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THERE. CAN THEREFORE NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE...WITH QUARTER-
SIZED HAIL AND 58 MPH WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT AND THUS THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILST THE UA DISTURBANCE
OPENS UP TO AN UA TROUGH WHILE PROGRESSING OVERHEAD. AS
SUCH...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH
THE COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE ON THE DECLINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...GIVEN
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
/HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVING SWD THROUGH THE
4-CORNERS TO NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING PRETTY
CONTINUITY THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IN LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY TO STRETCH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING AT LEAST THAT FAR INTO THE FCST. TEMPS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH FAIRLY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
MODEL/OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS A GOOD PLACE TO REMAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  42  60  41 /  90  40  10  10
TULIA         55  44  61  43 /  90  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     55  44  61  44 /  90  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     58  44  62  45 / 100  60  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  44  62  46 /  90  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   60  46  63  45 / 100  50  10   0
BROWNFIELD    61  46  63  47 / 100  60  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  48  64  46 /  80  60  30  10
SPUR          64  47  63  47 /  90  60  30  10
ASPERMONT     69  51  65  48 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93
119
FXUS64 KLUB 131123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL THREE TAF SITE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN THIS WAY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KLBB AND KPVW...BUT LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AT
KCDS. CLOUD DECKS WILL HOWEVER DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR BY
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CURRENT VIS HAS BEEN VFR AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...THOUGH INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR FOG HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN THE
LAST 8 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN BE THE CASE
GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF -RA/-TSRA AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE CLOSED UA LOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN INTENTLY WATCHING FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SUN COUNTRY PER 07Z SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SATELLITE CHANNEL ALSO SHOWS THE RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE IT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT IS PRESENT...THUS SHOWN IN THE
WAY OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN-HALF OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING /WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH/...WHICH WILL AID ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEING LIFTED FURTHER AND THUS GENERATE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ONLY SLIGHT
MITIGATING FACTOR MAY BE THE DRY SLOT WHICH CAN EASILY BE SEEN VIA
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS IT INVADES THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE FROPA...MOIST CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY
COUNTERACT IT /MODEL SOLUTIONS CERTAINLY AGREE WITH THIS THINKING/.
INTERMITTENT FOGGY CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THE PAST 8 HRS OR SO...AND THIS NUISANCE WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST AS LONG AS THE PRECIP ENDURES.

THUS FAR...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN WITHIN
ONE HOUR WAS AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...PER TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES. AS SUCH...IMMEDIATE FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE
BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BECOMES COVERED WITH WATER. HENCE...USE CAUTION WHEN
APPROACHING WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. LAPSE RATES ARE SHOWN TO STEEPEN BY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH NOT AS STEEP AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY...AND MUCAPE OF AOA 500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT AGAIN
NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WHAT RAISES EYEBROWS IS THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THERE. CAN THEREFORE NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE...WITH QUARTER-
SIZED HAIL AND 58 MPH WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT AND THUS THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILST THE UA DISTURBANCE
OPENS UP TO AN UA TROUGH WHILE PROGRESSING OVERHEAD. AS
SUCH...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH
THE COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE ON THE DECLINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...GIVEN
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
/HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVING SWD THROUGH THE
4-CORNERS TO NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING PRETTY
CONTINUITY THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IN LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY TO STRETCH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING AT LEAST THAT FAR INTO THE FCST. TEMPS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH FAIRLY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
MODEL/OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS A GOOD PLACE TO REMAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  42  60  41 /  80  40  10  10
TULIA         55  44  61  43 /  80  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     55  44  61  44 /  80  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     58  44  62  45 /  80  60  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  44  62  46 /  80  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   60  46  63  45 /  80  50  10   0
BROWNFIELD    61  46  63  47 /  80  60  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  48  64  46 /  80  60  30  10
SPUR          64  47  63  47 /  80  60  30  10
ASPERMONT     69  51  65  48 /  80  60  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
559
FXUS64 KLUB 130837
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE CLOSED UA LOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN INTENTLY WATCHING FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SUN COUNTRY PER 07Z SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SATELLITE CHANNEL ALSO SHOWS THE RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE IT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT IS PRESENT...THUS SHOWN IN THE
WAY OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN-HALF OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING /WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH/...WHICH WILL AID ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEING LIFTED FURTHER AND THUS GENERATE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ONLY SLIGHT
MITIGATING FACTOR MAY BE THE DRY SLOT WHICH CAN EASILY BE SEEN VIA
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS IT INVADES THE SWRN SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE FROPA...MOIST CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY
COUNTERACT IT /MODEL SOLUTIONS CERTAINLY AGREE WITH THIS THINKING/.
INTERMITTENT FOGGY CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THE PAST 8 HRS OR SO...AND THIS NUISANCE WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST AS LONG AS THE PRECIP ENDURES.

THUS FAR...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN WITHIN
ONE HOUR WAS AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...PER TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES. AS SUCH...IMMEDIATE FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE
BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BECOMES COVERED WITH WATER. HENCE...USE CAUTION WHEN
APPROACHING WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. LAPSE RATES ARE SHOWN TO STEEPEN BY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH NOT AS STEEP AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY...AND MUCAPE OF AOA 500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT AGAIN
NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WHAT RAISES EYEBROWS IS THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THERE. CAN THEREFORE NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE...WITH QUARTER-
SIZED HAIL AND 58 MPH WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT AND THUS THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILST THE UA DISTURBANCE
OPENS UP TO AN UA TROUGH WHILE PROGRESSING OVERHEAD. AS
SUCH...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH
THE COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE ON THE DECLINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...GIVEN
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
/HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVING SWD THROUGH THE
4-CORNERS TO NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING PRETTY
CONTINUITY THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IN LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY TO STRETCH
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING AT LEAST THAT FAR INTO THE FCST. TEMPS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH FAIRLY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
MODEL/OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS A GOOD PLACE TO REMAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  42  60  41 /  80  40  10  10
TULIA         55  44  61  43 /  80  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     55  44  61  44 /  80  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     58  44  62  45 /  80  60  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  44  62  46 /  80  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   60  46  63  45 /  80  50  10   0
BROWNFIELD    61  46  63  47 /  80  60  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  48  64  46 /  80  60  30  10
SPUR          64  47  63  47 /  80  60  30  10
ASPERMONT     69  51  65  48 /  80  60  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
382
FXUS64 KLUB 130453
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT SHOULD REINVIGORATE PRECIPITATION TOWARD
SUNRISE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
DETAILS ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF REMAINS NEBULOUS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z/TUE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO TRAIN ACROSS KPVW AND EXPECT
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHORTLY AFFECTING KLBB. THESE STORMS SHOULD
AFFECT THESE TERMINALS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS GENERALLY DETERIORATING. KCDS MAY REMAIN VFR THE
LONGEST BUT CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT THAT TERMINAL BY MID EVENING.
GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING
SO CAUTION IS ADVISED EVEN WELL CLEAR OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. USE
INDICATORS SUCH AS DUST BEING KICKED UP ON THE SURFACE AS A PROXY
FOR HIGH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COMPLICATED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WAS MIXING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WAS NOT QUITE AS SHARP AS YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG EITHER. WINDS
WERE BACKING JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WAS OBSERVED
WITHIN AND TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS EXTENDING OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS. THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DONE
LITTLE TO CURB SURFACE HEATING LEADING TO MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
STRONGER CAP TODAY AND MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT ERODING UNTIL
SOMETIME BETWEEN 23-00Z. THERE IS A CHANCE IT MAY BE ALL QUIET
UNTIL AN UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE AREA TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO ASSIST WITH
CAPPING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS NOT MOVING IN
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SINCE WE WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...BOTH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETREAT BACK WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FA MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MOIST LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO COUPLE WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN CREATING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION COULD
TRAIN NEAR THE FRONT IN CREATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWS DOWN AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ALSO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS SEEMS
TO BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN WORKED
OVER AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM
ANY PRECIPITATION AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ARE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT A RAPID TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE
ALREADY TRYING TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MIXING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WANTS TO WRAP UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A STRONG DRY PUNCH
STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE
LOW AND KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE. REGARDLESS...
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR TO SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  53  41  62 /  70  80  50  10
TULIA         53  56  43  63 /  70  80  60  30
PLAINVIEW     54  56  44  64 /  60  80  60  30
LEVELLAND     54  58  44  66 /  50  80  60  10
LUBBOCK       55  59  46  66 /  50  80  60  20
DENVER CITY   52  61  45  67 /  40  80  50  10
BROWNFIELD    54  61  46  67 /  50  80  60  10
CHILDRESS     59  63  49  66 /  80  80  60  40
SPUR          58  62  48  65 /  60  80  70  30
ASPERMONT     60  67  52  68 /  70  80  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
271
FXUS64 KLUB 122334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO TRAIN ACROSS KPVW AND EXPECT
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHORTLY AFFECTING KLBB. THESE STORMS SHOULD
AFFECT THESE TERMINALS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS GENERALLY DETERIORATING. KCDS MAY REMAIN VFR THE
LONGEST BUT CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT THAT TERMINAL BY MID EVENING.
GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING
SO CAUTION IS ADVISED EVEN WELL CLEAR OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. USE
INDICATORS SUCH AS DUST BEING KICKED UP ON THE SURFACE AS A PROXY
FOR HIGH WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COMPLICATED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WAS MIXING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WAS NOT QUITE AS SHARP AS YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG EITHER. WINDS
WERE BACKING JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WAS OBSERVED
WITHIN AND TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS EXTENDING OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS. THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DONE
LITTLE TO CURB SURFACE HEATING LEADING TO MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
STRONGER CAP TODAY AND MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT ERODING UNTIL
SOMETIME BETWEEN 23-00Z. THERE IS A CHANCE IT MAY BE ALL QUIET
UNTIL AN UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE AREA TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO ASSIST WITH
CAPPING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS NOT MOVING IN
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SINCE WE WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...BOTH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETREAT BACK WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FA MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MOIST LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO COUPLE WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN CREATING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION COULD
TRAIN NEAR THE FRONT IN CREATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWS DOWN AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ALSO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS SEEMS
TO BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN WORKED
OVER AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM
ANY PRECIPITATION AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ARE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT A RAPID TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE
ALREADY TRYING TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MIXING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WANTS TO WRAP UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A STRONG DRY PUNCH
STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE
LOW AND KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE. REGARDLESS...
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR TO SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  53  41  62 /  70  80  50  10
TULIA         53  56  43  63 /  80  80  60  30
PLAINVIEW     54  56  44  64 /  80  80  60  30
LEVELLAND     54  58  44  66 /  80  80  60  10
LUBBOCK       55  59  46  66 /  80  80  60  20
DENVER CITY   52  61  45  67 /  80  80  50  10
BROWNFIELD    54  61  46  67 /  80  80  60  10
CHILDRESS     59  63  49  66 /  80  80  60  40
SPUR          58  62  48  65 /  70  80  70  30
ASPERMONT     60  67  52  68 /  70  80  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
075
FXUS64 KLUB 122041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLICATED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WAS MIXING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WAS NOT QUITE AS SHARP AS YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG EITHER. WINDS
WERE BACKING JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WAS OBSERVED
WITHIN AND TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS EXTENDING OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS. THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DONE
LITTLE TO CURB SURFACE HEATING LEADING TO MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITIES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
STRONGER CAP TODAY AND MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT ERODING UNTIL
SOMETIME BETWEEN 23-00Z. THERE IS A CHANCE IT MAY BE ALL QUIET
UNTIL AN UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE AREA TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO ASSIST WITH
CAPPING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS NOT MOVING IN
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SINCE WE WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...BOTH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETREAT BACK WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FA MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MOIST LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO COUPLE WITH LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN CREATING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION COULD
TRAIN NEAR THE FRONT IN CREATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWS DOWN AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE MODELS ALSO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS SEEMS
TO BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN WORKED
OVER AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM
ANY PRECIPITATION AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ARE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT A RAPID TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE
ALREADY TRYING TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MIXING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WANTS TO WRAP UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A STRONG DRY PUNCH
STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE
LOW AND KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE. REGARDLESS...
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR TO SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  53  41  62 /  70  80  50  10
TULIA         53  56  43  63 /  80  80  60  30
PLAINVIEW     54  56  44  64 /  80  80  60  30
LEVELLAND     54  58  44  66 /  80  80  60  10
LUBBOCK       55  59  46  66 /  80  80  60  20
DENVER CITY   52  61  45  67 /  80  80  50  10
BROWNFIELD    54  61  46  67 /  80  80  60  10
CHILDRESS     59  63  49  66 /  80  80  60  40
SPUR          58  62  48  65 /  70  80  70  30
ASPERMONT     60  67  52  68 /  70  80  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
406
FXUS64 KLUB 121737
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST...AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
KCDS BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATER
IN THE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
EXPANDING INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH. ON EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING BREEZY. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY WANE BY EARLY MORNING BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS THIS MORNING WITH IFR DECKS
OCCURRING MORE SO AT KLBB AND KPVW. VIS HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 10SM
AT BOTH KPVW AND KLBB...BUT STILL VFR THUS FAR. SLIGHTLY BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY MITIGATING THE FORMATION OF THICKER FOG.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT
KLBB AND KPVW...AND A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER AT KCDS. CHANCES FOR
-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY 13/00Z AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN. HAVE
INSERTED A PREVAILING -TSRA AT ALL SITES AND TRIED TO NARROW ON
THE ONSET TIME AT EACH LOCATION. MVFR CLOUD DECKS /AND POSSIBLY
FOG/ WILL MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AND KPVW.
FURTHERMORE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING KCDS FROM THE NORTH BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...HENCE THE INSERTION OF VRB WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO OK AND KS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST THE RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE TO ACROSS ERN NM HAS LED
TO S-SE SFC WINDS USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S PER 07Z METARS. DUE TO THIS SLUG OF
MOISTURE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE CAPROCK LATE LAST
NIGHT AND HAS SINCE SHIFTED WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS. HENCE...IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY BE ENVELOPED BY THIS STRATUS DECK. NEXT OBVIOUS CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. 07Z KLBB METAR REPORTED VIS HAVING DROPPED
TO 7SM THUS FAR...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDEED HINT AT LIGHT FOG
IMPACTING THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE UP
A BIT ACROSS THE FA /10 MPH OR SO/ WHICH MAY AID TO DISCOURAGE DENSE
FOG FORMATION.

LOOKING ALOFT...SW FLOW DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...COURTESY OF THE EVER WATCHFUL CLOSED UA LOW THAT HAS
NEARED THE BAJA OF CALI PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO MAKES EVIDENT THE SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE HEADING OUR
WAY...NOT TO MENTION INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY
THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN OLD
MEXICO THUS NEARING THE SUN COUNTRY. MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HRS. THE DRYLINE WILL BULGE EWRD
TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS AFTN WITH ITS SRN PERIPHERY MORE
SO ACROSS ERN NM...THUS IT IS QUITE DIFFUSE/NOT NEARLY AS SHARP
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...THE DRYLINE COULD STILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CI /ONCE THE STRATUS DECK ERODES/ COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED UL SUPPORT...AS THE UA LOW
DRAWS NEAR /UA LOW ANTICIPATED TO NEAR THE SUN COUNTRY BY LATE
AFTN/. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO NOT INITIATE STORMS UNTIL
AOA 13/00Z...WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE SW
BEING USHERED IN BY THE UA LOW. HOWEVER THE TTU WRF AND THE NAM
SOLUTION HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS SOON AS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS ERODING THE CIN QUICKER THAN OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE UA LOW WILL BE RIGHT AT
OUR DOORSTEP /CENTERED TO OUR SW/ AND SO WILL OUR BEST CHANCE TO
HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIP GIVEN THE SURGE IN UL SUPPORT. LAPSE RATES
ARE SHOWN TO STEEPEN BY LATE THIS AFTN. THERE IS STILL A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MUCAPE /AOA 900 J/KG/ THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY...AND THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY /10-25 KTS/. HENCE...CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND UP TO 58 MPH WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

WARM TEMPS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY /70S AND 80S/ FOLLOWED BY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO A
COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE PANHANDLES AND NEARING THE NRN ZONES BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM...
A COOL AND WET DAY IN STORE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
FAR WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SWD AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE COOL AIR MASS AND AS THE AIR
MASS DESTABILIZES WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS LOW /REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH BY THAT
TIME/ AS WELL...NOT TAKING IT EAST OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER...AND IN THE
CASE OF MONDAY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY IN THE NRN STREAM AND HOW THAT ENERGY EVOLVES
AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
NOW FAVORING A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE 4-CORNERS
REGION THEN MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
NOT MAKE RADICAL CHANGES AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN HORRENDOUS...BUT WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATER SHIFTS HAVING TO EXTEND THOSE RAIN CHANCES
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO A QUESTION THRU THIS
PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST COULD KEEP COOLER AIR BOTTLED
UP WELL TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WOULD HELP
NARROW DIURNAL RANGE. MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  56  40  63 /  60  80  40  10
TULIA         52  59  43  64 /  60  80  50  30
PLAINVIEW     53  59  44  65 /  60  80  60  30
LEVELLAND     53  61  44  67 /  70  70  50  10
LUBBOCK       54  62  46  67 /  70  70  60  20
DENVER CITY   51  64  45  68 /  50  70  50  10
BROWNFIELD    53  64  46  68 /  50  70  50  10
CHILDRESS     58  66  49  67 /  60  80  60  40
SPUR          57  65  48  66 /  60  70  60  30
ASPERMONT     59  70  52  69 /  60  70  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
181
FXUS64 KLUB 121121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS THIS MORNING WITH IFR DECKS
OCCURRING MORE SO AT KLBB AND KPVW. VIS HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 10SM
AT BOTH KPVW AND KLBB...BUT STILL VFR THUS FAR. SLIGHTLY BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY MITIGATING THE FORMATION OF THICKER FOG.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT
KLBB AND KPVW...AND A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER AT KCDS. CHANCES FOR
-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY 13/00Z AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN. HAVE
INSERTED A PREVAILING -TSRA AT ALL SITES AND TRIED TO NARROW ON
THE ONSET TIME AT EACH LOCATION. MVFR CLOUD DECKS /AND POSSIBLY
FOG/ WILL MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AND KPVW.
FURTHERMORE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING KCDS FROM THE NORTH BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...HENCE THE INSERTION OF VRB WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO OK AND KS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST THE RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE TO ACROSS ERN NM HAS LED
TO S-SE SFC WINDS USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S PER 07Z METARS. DUE TO THIS SLUG OF
MOISTURE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE CAPROCK LATE LAST
NIGHT AND HAS SINCE SHIFTED WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS. HENCE...IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY BE ENVELOPED BY THIS STRATUS DECK. NEXT OBVIOUS CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. 07Z KLBB METAR REPORTED VIS HAVING DROPPED
TO 7SM THUS FAR...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDEED HINT AT LIGHT FOG
IMPACTING THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE UP
A BIT ACROSS THE FA /10 MPH OR SO/ WHICH MAY AID TO DISCOURAGE DENSE
FOG FORMATION.

LOOKING ALOFT...SW FLOW DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...COURTESY OF THE EVER WATCHFUL CLOSED UA LOW THAT HAS
NEARED THE BAJA OF CALI PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO MAKES EVIDENT THE SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE HEADING OUR
WAY...NOT TO MENTION INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY
THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN OLD
MEXICO THUS NEARING THE SUN COUNTRY. MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HRS. THE DRYLINE WILL BULGE EWRD
TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS AFTN WITH ITS SRN PERIPHERY MORE
SO ACROSS ERN NM...THUS IT IS QUITE DIFFUSE/NOT NEARLY AS SHARP
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...THE DRYLINE COULD STILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CI /ONCE THE STRATUS DECK ERODES/ COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED UL SUPPORT...AS THE UA LOW
DRAWS NEAR /UA LOW ANTICIPATED TO NEAR THE SUN COUNTRY BY LATE
AFTN/. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO NOT INITIATE STORMS UNTIL
AOA 13/00Z...WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE SW
BEING USHERED IN BY THE UA LOW. HOWEVER THE TTU WRF AND THE NAM
SOLUTION HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS SOON AS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS ERODING THE CIN QUICKER THAN OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE UA LOW WILL BE RIGHT AT
OUR DOORSTEP /CENTERED TO OUR SW/ AND SO WILL OUR BEST CHANCE TO
HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIP GIVEN THE SURGE IN UL SUPPORT. LAPSE RATES
ARE SHOWN TO STEEPEN BY LATE THIS AFTN. THERE IS STILL A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MUCAPE /AOA 900 J/KG/ THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY...AND THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY /10-25 KTS/. HENCE...CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND UP TO 58 MPH WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

WARM TEMPS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY /70S AND 80S/ FOLLOWED BY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO A
COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE PANHANDLES AND NEARING THE NRN ZONES BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM...
A COOL AND WET DAY IN STORE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
FAR WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. INTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SWD AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE COOL AIR MASS AND AS THE AIR
MASS DESTABILIZES WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS LOW /REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH BY THAT
TIME/ AS WELL...NOT TAKING IT EAST OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER...AND IN THE
CASE OF MONDAY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY IN THE NRN STREAM AND HOW THAT ENERGY EVOLVES
AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
NOW FAVORING A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE 4-CORNERS
REGION THEN MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
NOT MAKE RADICAL CHANGES AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN HORRENDOUS...BUT WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATER SHIFTS HAVING TO EXTEND THOSE RAIN CHANCES
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO A QUESTION THRU THIS
PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST COULD KEEP COOLER AIR BOTTLED
UP WELL TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WOULD HELP
NARROW DIURNAL RANGE. MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  49  56  40 /  20  60  80  40
TULIA         79  52  59  43 /  30  60  80  50
PLAINVIEW     78  53  59  44 /  30  60  80  60
LEVELLAND     79  53  61  44 /  30  70  70  50
LUBBOCK       79  54  62  46 /  30  70  70  60
DENVER CITY   77  51  64  45 /  30  50  70  50
BROWNFIELD    79  53  64  46 /  40  50  70  50
CHILDRESS     80  58  66  49 /  30  60  80  60
SPUR          80  57  65  48 /  30  60  70  60
ASPERMONT     84  59  70  52 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
795
FXUS64 KLUB 120813
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO OK AND KS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST THE RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE TO ACROSS ERN NM HAS LED
TO S-SE SFC WINDS USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S PER 07Z METARS. DUE TO THIS SLUG OF
MOISTURE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE CAPROCK LATE LAST
NIGHT AND HAS SINCE SHIFTED WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS. HENCE...IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY BE ENVELOPED BY THIS STRATUS DECK. NEXT OBVIOUS CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. 07Z KLBB METAR REPORTED VIS HAVING DROPPED
TO 7SM THUS FAR...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDEED HINT AT LIGHT FOG
IMPACTING THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS ARE UP
A BIT ACROSS THE FA /10 MPH OR SO/ WHICH MAY AID TO DISCOURAGE DENSE
FOG FORMATION.

LOOKING ALOFT...SW FLOW DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...COURTESY OF THE EVER WATCHFUL CLOSED UA LOW THAT HAS
NEARED THE BAJA OF CALI PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO MAKES EVIDENT THE SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE HEADING OUR
WAY...NOT TO MENTION INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY
THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN OLD
MEXICO THUS NEARING THE SUN COUNTRY. MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HRS. THE DRYLINE WILL BULGE EWRD
TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS AFTN WITH ITS SRN PERIPHERY MORE
SO ACROSS ERN NM...THUS IT IS QUITE DIFFUSE/NOT NEARLY AS SHARP
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...THE DRYLINE COULD STILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CI /ONCE THE STRATUS DECK ERODES/ COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED UL SUPPORT...AS THE UA LOW
DRAWS NEAR /UA LOW ANTICIPATED TO NEAR THE SUN COUNTRY BY LATE
AFTN/. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS DO NOT INITIATE STORMS UNTIL
AOA 13/00Z...WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE SW
BEING USHERED IN BY THE UA LOW. HOWEVER THE TTU WRF AND THE NAM
SOLUTION HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS SOON AS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS ERODING THE CIN QUICKER THAN OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE UA LOW WILL BE RIGHT AT
OUR DOORSTEP /CENTERED TO OUR SW/ AND SO WILL OUR BEST CHANCE TO
HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIP GIVEN THE SURGE IN UL SUPPORT. LAPSE RATES
ARE SHOWN TO STEEPEN BY LATE THIS AFTN. THERE IS STILL A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MUCAPE /AOA 900 J/KG/ THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY...AND THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY /10-25 KTS/. HENCE...CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND UP TO 58 MPH WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

WARM TEMPS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY /70S AND 80S/ FOLLOWED BY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO A
COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE PANHANDLES AND NEARING THE NRN ZONES BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...
A COOL AND WET DAY IN STORE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
FAR WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. INTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SWD AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE COOL AIR MASS AND AS THE AIR
MASS DESTABILIZES WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS LOW /REALLY MORE OF A TROUGH BY THAT
TIME/ AS WELL...NOT TAKING IT EAST OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS TO BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER...AND IN THE
CASE OF MONDAY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY IN THE NRN STREAM AND HOW THAT ENERGY EVOLVES
AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
NOW FAVORING A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE 4-CORNERS
REGION THEN MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
NOT MAKE RADICAL CHANGES AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN HORRENDOUS...BUT WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATER SHIFTS HAVING TO EXTEND THOSE RAIN CHANCES
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO A QUESTION THRU THIS
PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST COULD KEEP COOLER AIR BOTTLED
UP WELL TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WOULD HELP
NARROW DIURNAL RANGE. MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  49  56  40 /  20  60  80  40
TULIA         79  52  59  43 /  30  60  80  50
PLAINVIEW     78  53  59  44 /  30  60  80  60
LEVELLAND     79  53  61  44 /  30  70  70  50
LUBBOCK       79  54  62  46 /  30  70  70  60
DENVER CITY   77  51  64  45 /  30  50  70  50
BROWNFIELD    79  53  64  46 /  40  50  70  50
CHILDRESS     80  58  66  49 /  30  60  80  60
SPUR          80  57  65  48 /  30  60  70  60
ASPERMONT     84  59  70  52 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07

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