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Product Version: 2013-05-25 17:47:40 2013-05-25 15:18:29 2013-05-25 11:26:16 2013-05-25 09:11:47 2013-05-25 04:31:08 2013-05-24 23:53:16 2013-05-24 20:44:48 2013-05-24 18:04:35 2013-05-24 11:48:21 2013-05-24 09:40:48 2013-05-24 04:22:44 2013-05-24 03:11:14 2013-05-24 02:04:18 2013-05-23 23:34:43 2013-05-23 17:36:55 2013-05-23 12:43:31 2013-05-23 09:46:45 2013-05-23 04:53:06 2013-05-23 00:01:09 2013-05-22 21:00:12 2013-05-22 11:44:36 2013-05-22 09:54:17 2013-05-22 04:27:11 2013-05-21 23:07:50 2013-05-21 21:04:23 2013-05-21 18:24:20 2013-05-21 11:38:27 2013-05-21 09:45:11 2013-05-21 04:33:29 2013-05-20 23:20:55 2013-05-20 20:41:57 2013-05-20 11:39:00 2013-05-20 09:15:22 2013-05-20 04:34:39 2013-05-20 00:16:17 2013-05-19 20:13:05 2013-05-19 17:29:33 2013-05-19 16:29:14 2013-05-19 11:06:45 2013-05-19 09:03:44 2013-05-19 04:41:14 2013-05-19 02:29:35 2013-05-18 23:51:33 2013-05-18 20:19:46 ALL   

280
FXUS64 KLUB 251747
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS COULD BE INTERRUPTED AT LBB THIS EVENING BY
TSRA...ALTHOUGH A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT
CDS BY EARLY SUN MORNING IN THE FORM OF STRATUS. STORMS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SACRAMENTO MTS OF NEW MEXICO WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY SPREAD EAST THIS AFTN...BUT PROBABILITY THESE
REMAIN INTACT BY THIS EVENING IN LBB IS TOO LOW FOR A PROB30 OR
TEMPO MENTION ATTM. ONE MODEL HAS A LINE OF TSRA REACHING LBB BY
02Z...BUT THIS WILL BE MORE CERTAIN OR NOT BY THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY POPS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN WHILE
CONFINING THIS MENTION TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. EXPANDED THIS
MENTION EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS WHILE BUMPING UP CHANCES EVEN
FURTHER OVER OUR NWRN COUNTIES. CURRENT NAM-WRF AND THE FEW
EXPERIMENTAL HI-RES MODELS AVAILABLE FAVOR ISOLATED TSTRMS
DEVELOPING IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE OUTFLOW PROCESSES AND IMPROVING MID-LEVEL FLOW
HELP THIS ACTIVITY REDEVELOP EASTWARD WITH TIME. BACKGROUND
FORCING IS LARGELY MUTED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO
DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE IN THIS W-SWLY FLOW REGIME...BUT WITH SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE STEERING WINDS UPSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE...
TSTORMS SHOULD STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF PROPAGATING EASTWARD THAN
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT SBCAPE AROUND 1600 J/KG ALONG THE
STATE LINE BY 00Z AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HERE KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS IN
CHECK /I.E. LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 6K FT AGL/...SO SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A WINDOW FOR SUPERCELLS
IN LIGHT OF IMPROVING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OVER TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  95  60  97 /  20  30  20  20  20
TULIA         87  61  95  64  97 /  10  20  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     85  62  94  64  97 /  10  20  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     86  63  95  63  97 /  10  30  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       85  65  95  65  98 /  10  20  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   87  62  95  63  98 /  20  30  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    87  63  94  63  98 /  10  20  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     88  68  94  68  99 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          85  65  93  64  96 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     86  68  93  67  97 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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