Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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630
FXUS64 KLUB 132132
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP SOME AND UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER
THAT TREND CONTINUES...STALLS...OR REVERSES...TEMP FCST IN
PARTICULAR BECOMES TRICKY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MODEL TRENDS WITH
SKY COVER NEAR/ABOUT 10 PCT EITHER SIDE OF/ 50 PCT CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RESULT SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF LOWS GETTING DOWN TO MOS VALUES WHILE FOR FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF MORE INSOLATION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SHARP...ALBEIT
BRIEF...WARMING TREND. HOWEVER IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE DAYS TO FULLY
DISLODGE THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FCST HIGH TEMPS WILL
STILL BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE FIRST OF TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE IN FULL SWING WITH CYCLOGENESIS OFF TOWARD THE
WEST...THUS CREATING A WARM NOSE ABOVE A NEAR OR SUBFREEZING
SURFACE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTENING
WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR TO MAKE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE SUBTLE FORCING AND QUESTIONABLE
MOISTURE FIELDS. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ICING DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES...BEFORE
ANYTHING LEFT OVER MELTS TO LIQUID. A NOTICEABLE WARMUP WILL ENSUE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST REACHING INTO THE 50S WITH A
SLOWER RETREAT OF THE COLD DOME.

THE NEXT ROUND OF OPPORTUNITY WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT AS A ANOTHER
SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR SLAMS INTO WEST TEXAS. UPPER FORCING CONTINUES
TO APPEAR SKETCHY FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A
SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER JET SHOULD AID IN
PRODUCING RISING MOTION INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A SURGING SURFACE RIDGE. CHANCES SHOULD
COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS
SUBSIDING MOTION WORKS ACROSS THE REGION.

SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR NEXT WEEK AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES CRASH BACK INTO THE 30S FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY THUS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS/20S. AN APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL
ATTEMPT TO REPLACE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE INTO MIDWEEK...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TROUGHINESS PUSHING
IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  28  63  20 /   0   0  20  10  20
TULIA         15  41  27  60  22 /   0   0  20  10  20
PLAINVIEW     17  41  28  62  23 /   0   0  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     18  42  28  66  25 /   0   0  20   0  10
LUBBOCK       17  42  28  64  26 /   0   0  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   19  45  29  68  28 /   0   0  20   0  10
BROWNFIELD    19  44  29  67  28 /   0   0  20   0  10
CHILDRESS     17  40  28  54  27 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          18  42  28  61  27 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     19  44  28  63  28 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/31

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