584
FXUS64 KLUB 240940
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
440 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF FORCING BOTH LARGE AND AT THE
MESOSCALE LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING WITH A LACK OF A FOCUSED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION BUT
THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE SHORT WAVES WITH THE FLOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL FOCUS RESOLVED BY MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE ONLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY BE A LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
LOW LEVEL ENHANCEMENT MAY BE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. FURTHERMORE...ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL BE
COMPOSED OF DOWNGLIDE.
THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY
WILL BALLOON TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. THE RAP EVEN SHOWS AN
ASTOUNDING 6000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AS MUCH AS THEY DID ON
THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP SURFACE DEW POINTS IN JUICY
TERRITORY RANGING FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAINTAIN RESPECTABLE VALUES BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES.
HODOGRAPHS DEPICT GOOD TURNING IN LOW LEVELS BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MID LEVELS. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROGS. SHEAR VECTORS FROM 0-6KM ARE ON THE ORDER OF ONLY
25-30KT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALLOWING FOR A
DELUGE OF RAINFALL. OVERALL...CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE POORLY
ORGANIZED FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE ALSO INITIATING BY LATE IN THE
MORNING WHICH SEEMS EQUIVOCAL GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAINED CAPPED UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON AMONG OTHER REASONS
DISCUSSED ABOVE. LASTLY...WITH DEW POINTS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX OUT
NEARLY AS MUCH TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY 80S FORECAST. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. MOISTURE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH MORE OR LESS OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA...LESS
WEST AND MORE EAST OF COURSE. THE SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL LIKELY
SLOSH MOSTLY BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHILE PRECISE LOCATIONS AT PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING
PERIODS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. INSTABILITY LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM RANGE. WEAK EJECTING
DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AT TIMES...WHILE WEAKLY
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO COULD GENERATE LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A STRONGER TROUGH STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO EJECT LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PERHAPS IN TWO OR MORE PARTS LIKE THE GFS OR AS A
STRONGER TROUGH OR UPPER LOW LIKE THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE BACKED UPPER FLOW AND EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AND OR THURSDAY AND MAY END UP WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. THIS IS A STRONG ENOUGH AND CONSISTENT
ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR NOW TO RAISE THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MID-WEEK WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW OR LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 60 84 60 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
TULIA 83 62 83 60 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 83 63 83 61 91 / 30 30 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 85 64 84 62 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 83 65 83 63 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 85 64 84 61 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
BROWNFIELD 85 65 84 62 92 / 30 30 20 20 10
CHILDRESS 83 66 85 66 93 / 30 30 20 20 10
SPUR 82 66 82 63 91 / 30 30 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 85 67 84 66 92 / 40 40 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/05
